Tuesday, August 3, 2010

ZiPS Rest of Season Projections

Fangraphs is, in my mind, the very best website for baseball statistics - in fact, the vast majority of the statistics that I utilize in my posts are taken from there. In addition to utilizing their own numbers and formulas, Fangraphs also uses data from Pitch F/X, John Dewan, Sean Smith, Tom Tango, and several other sources. In short, it's a great one-stop source for most anything you could ever want to know about a player's production.

One of my personal favorite resources on Fangraphs is the ZiPS in-season projections. Here, Fangraphs utilizes the ZiPS projection system to project a player's production over the remaining portion of the season, while also combining that with their to-date production. While it's not an exact science, it's something that I believe is worth noting - at the very least, it's a better resource than the 'on-pace for' nonsense that we see on ESPN and the like. Let's take a look at how the Yankees ideal line-up, starting rotation, and key bullpen pieces stack up for the last couple of months.

Jorge Posada - .262/.350/.430, .345 wOBA, 4 HR
Mark Teixeira - .269/.365/.490, .375 wOBA, 11 HR
Robinson Cano - .307/.349/.505, .368 wOBA, 8 HR
Alex Rodriguez - .278/.368/.511, .384 wOBA, 10 HR
Derek Jeter - .291/.359/.404, .343 wOBA, 4 HR
Brett Gardner - .270/.355/.372, .338 wOBA, 2 HR, 13 SB
Curtis Granderson - .254/.330/.455, .347 wOBA, 8 HR
Nick Swisher - .265/.361/.497, .374 wOBA, 10 HR
Lance Berkman - .262/.381/.470, .376 wOBA, 8 HR

CC Sabathia - 83 IP, 3.69 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 2.49 BB/9
A.J. Burnett - 69 IP, 4.70 ERA, 7.70 K/9, 3.91 BB/9
Andy Pettitte - 65 IP, 4.43 ERA, 6.51 K/9, 3.18 BB/9
Javy Vazquez - 69 IP, 4.04 ERA, 8.22 K/9, 2.48 BB/9
Phil Hughes - 42 IP, 4.50 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 3.00 BB/9

Mariano Rivera - 21 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.43 K/9, 1.71 BB/9
Joba Chamberlain - 44 IP, 4.09 ERA, 8.59 K/9, 3.68 BB/9
David Robertson - 23 IP, 4.30 ERA, 10.57 K/9, 4.70 BB/9
Kerry Wood - 16 IP, 4.50 ERA, 9.56 K/9, 3.94 BB/9

It's worth noting that these projections are based on production on the year to-date, production over the past couple of seasons, and the pre-season ZiPS projections. That Hughes and Chamberlain changed roles impacts the numbers, for example - it's likely that Hughes could toss more innings and Chamberlain will toss less.

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