Yankees Health Report From BP's Will Carroll

Here is how he ranks the Yankees starters, and I warn you, this may not make you happy. I'll start with the good news:

The Green: Melky Cabrera, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu

The Yellow: Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Mike Mussina

... and now the bad, or scary news,

The Red: Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera

If you were wondering about the Red Sox, they have three players in the red; Jacoby Ellsbury, J. D. Drew, and Clay Buchholz.

If you would like to know more about these rankings here is some info from Will Carroll:

Each year at Baseball Prospectus, I've done Team Health Reports. Over time, I've developed a system that uses an actuarial base to predict the likelihood of injuries for a given population...

Like any prediction system worth its salt, it's merely measuring probabilities, not certainties. The Giants won the Super Bowl, but I wouldn't have advised betting the mortgage on it. The tough thing for some people to understand about probabilities is that sometimes, the unlikely thing happens. If you flip a coin ten times, the probability is that you'll see heads five times. If you get six, the coin isn't defective. If you get ten, it's not even that special. When we discuss the realities of playing a game, noting the probabilities leads to the ability to perform. Kerry Wood is the poster boy for this concept. Few pitchers in recent memory have been as talented. Few pitchers have had as complete an arsenal of filthy pitches that leave hitters muttering to themselves as they walk back to the dugout. Few pitchers have been as sidetracked by injuries.

Each of the players in my system gets a rating: red, yellow or green. Unless you're color blind, these are easy to understand and since I live in Indianapolis, the auto-racing analogy is one I tend to fall back on. Underlying these simple colors are actually a band of probabilities, chances that each player sees an injury that lands him on the disabled list. A simple 15-day visit for a strained eyelid or a season-ending shoulder injury both "count" and there's no differentiation. For each player, there's always some level of risk. One never knows when Prince Fielder is going to run someone over at home. Red, the worst rating, is just short of a coinflip. For these players, the best possible rating is a 45% chance of being injured. If you're a glass half-full type, that's a 55% chance at health. You just have to hold your breath all season long that Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder holds up, that Brian Giles' knee responds to microfracture surgery, or maybe that Joba Chamberlain's usage pattern will keep him from following Kerry Wood's path to pain.

(Hat tip to NYY Stadium Insider)