Monday, November 3, 2008

Heyman's Free Agent Predictions

Here's his predictions for the top 9 free agents on the market from SI.com:

The Mega Stars

1. Sabathia. Good for the Brewers and their go-for-the-gusto owner Mark Attanasio to make a serious try at around $100 mil. And while the Dodgers, Angels and others might also make a play, realistically the Yankees can blow everyone away. My call: Yankees, seven years, $160 million.

2. Teixeira. The Angels love Teixeira and badly want to keep him. Other teams expected to be in the hunt include the Orioles, Yankees and Mariners. The Red Sox look like a long shot from here, unless than can unload 2007 World Series MVP Mike Lowell (not likely after recent hip surgery). My call: Angels, eight years, $150 million.

3. Ramirez. He's not going to like the Dodgers' short-term bid and will play the field. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays and Phillies are among those expected to check in. My call: Dodgers, three years, $75 million.

Best of the Rest

4. A.J. Burnett, starting pitcher. Once he exercises his Blue Jays op-out clause, the money should roll in. Timed his best year well. My call: Yankees, five years, $80 million.

5. Francisco Rodriguez, closer. Record-setting reliever lost a few mph but still figures out how to get batters out. My call: Rangers, five years, $75 million.

6. Derek Lowe, starting pitcher. Proved to be clutch again this postseason. Seems to want to go East. My call: Mets, four years, $56 million (but the Yankees will be pitching, too, and Lowe's hometown Tigers could be a dark horse).

7. Ryan Dempster, starting pitcher. He should stay in Chicago, which helped turn him into a successful starter: My Call: Cubs, four years, $56 million.

8. Brian Fuentes, closer. An excellent but cheaper alternative to K-Rod. My call: Mets, $39 million, three years.

9. Ben Sheets, starting pitcher. Health is a question. (If he were surely sound, he'd be close to a $100-million pitcher himself.) As one GM said, "How can anyone give him a long-term deal?'') But they love him in Houston. My call: Astros, $28 million, two years.

7 years $160M for CC, and 5 years $80M for Burnett? Those are huge contracts, both in price and especially in years.

I understand they are going to have to make an offer like that to land CC, so I don't have a major problem with it, although it's probably 10M too much and one year too long.

The Burnett prediction bothers me a little more. 5 years for a guy who can't stay healthy? Scary.

The rest of the article has predictions on the lower level free agents, players on the trading block, as well as much more. Here's what he had to say about Brian Cashman:
6. Brian Cashman, Yankees GM. It's like the winter of 1992-93 all over again, where the Yankees had bags of cash with which to entice big-time free agents. (That time, managing partner Joe Molloy was the point man, and after they lost out on Barry Bonds, Maddux and David Cone, they came back with Jimmy Key and Wade Boggs, and traded for Jim Abbott.) The Yankees will try first and hardest for Sabathia, but also have their sights on Burnett, Lowe and possibly Sheets. They will look into Teixeira and Ramirez for good measure. If they don't get Teixeira, look for Blake as a backup plan.

9 comments:

  1. I don't know what to make of this, the Mets going after Fuentes and passing on the best Closer and arguably second best pitcher available in K-Rod its crazy. I dont think that the Yanks are going to sign both CC and A.J. specially to long term big money contracts, and not to mention that we're about to loose a lot of firepower on the offensive side we need to go after an offensive superweapon Manny, Teix or trade.

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  2. I don't understand why the Mets aren't going after K-Rod, and it's not just this article, I've heard that mentioned many times.

    I do think the Yankees will go hard after these two, they need pitching and they're going to do everything they can to solidify the rotation.

    You're right about the offense, they're going to need to bring in a bat, and they need a 1st baseman. Teixeira would give them both. Manny would give them the bat and then they'd have to trade for a 1B.

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  3. This is from the Boston Globe:

    The Yankees have been very aggressive in calling teams to see who might be available. They called the Astros about Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman and were told they were not going to be dealt.

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  4. I know the Yanks need pitching but if we sign CC I don't think we will break the bank to bring A.J. we probably are going to go after a Lowe, Sheets, Dempster type pitcher.

    I don't know about Teixeira, yeas he is good but at 1B I think we can go with Ransom/Miranda and leave the slot open for Montero which I think is going to be ready in 2-3 years if not early and if we have Teixeira there we are going to be forced to play him at C, and I wish we could save this kid's knees and not do what the Cards did to Pujols plying him 3B and OF.

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  5. "I know the Yanks need pitching but if we sign CC I don't think we will break the bank to bring A.J. we probably are going to go after a Lowe, Sheets, Dempster type pitcher."

    Eliezer,

    I agree, but I don't know if the Yankees do. That's why I think they will try to sign both Burnett and CC.

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  6. Getting CC or AJ and then Andy is enough $ to spend on pitching. Perhaps Brain could see about getting a short-term deal with Sheets to prove his healthy. If he stays healthy, that could be a very good move.

    I agree that Teixeria is good and fills a need, but he would block Miranda and eventually Montero. Plus, we have Matsui, Damon & Posada to man 1B for next year. They can't all play the field or the defense will be terrible and to the detriment of all the pitchers.

    Is there any way to keep Abreu? His AB's are usually high quality and he's more clutch than A-Rod.

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  7. Geez, 1992-1993 seems so long ago.....

    Mike

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  8. I still like the Yankees chances at Teixeira

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  9. "I think we can go with Ransom/Miranda and leave the slot open for Montero which I think is going to be ready in 2-3 years"

    No

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