A Few Thoughts on the Tigers

I know they haven't clinched anything yet, but with their magic number down to 2 it would seem likely that they'll be our first round matchup. That got me thinking, and worrying a bit.

We all are aware of the Yankees' recent first round struggles, and when you look at the Tigers top two pitchers they look pretty formidable. Both Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson have had fantastic seasons, and they've also both had success against the Yanks in '09. In two starts against the Yanks this season, Jackson was 0-1, but has an ERA of just 1.38. Over 13 innings he allowed 2 ER on 9 hits, walked 6, and struck out 8. Verlander was 1-1, with a 1.29 against, and in 14 innings he allowed just 2 ER on 14 hits, walked, and struck out 15. Those numbers are enough to make most Yankees fans a little nervous heading into this year's ALDS.

This made me want to look back and see how the Yankees of 2006 and 2007 matched up against the two teams that knocked them out, the Tigers and the Indians. Both years the Yankees had a better offense, but fell short on the mound. As we know, pitching wins in October and that's why the Yanks fell short.

In 2009 the story is a bit different. Detroit can hit and pitch, but they haven't done either as well as the Yanks. Not only do the Yankees are better offensively, but they also have pitched better than their likely opponents. They've struck out more batters (1239 to 1067), walked less (570 to 574), and have a better team ERA (4.27 to 4.31). Though the advantage is not that significant, at least this time around we do have the advantage. Looking into this a little deeper we see that the Yankees had a team ERA of just 3.91 since the all-star break, while the Tigers had a team ERA of 4.46. The Yanks also have the superior bullpen. For the season their relievers have combined for an ERA of 3.94, while the Tigers pen had a 4.33 ERA.

On the negative side the Tigers have been much better defensively. Based on UZR (ultimate zone rating) the Tigers had the third best defense in baseball, while the Yankees ranked just 17th.

Like most of you I had been hoping that the Twins could catch the Tigers, they seem like the easier opponent, and like I said I'm a little worried, especially about Verlander and Jackson. But then again, I was hoping to face the Tigers in '06 and the Indians in '07. Winning five of the six regular season meetings between the two teams in the regular season is pretty meaningless at this point. We learned that the hard way in 2007, when the Yankees didn't lose to the Indians in the regular season. Like we all know it's going to come down to which team pitches better. Hopefully the Yankees can continue what they've been doing since the break, and if they can they should be able to advance. If not it will be another long offseason in the Bronx.

These are just my initial thoughts on the series, I'll write up a full position by position breakdown if and when the Tigers clinch. But enough of my random ramblings, the main reason I'm posting this is to see what you guys are thinking. So what are your thoughts on the likely series against Detroit?