We've already had series previews from YB, Mike (starting staffs & bullpen), and Durden, so I suggest reading those posts if you have not already. To me there are three keys to this series for the Yanks: Keeping Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu off the bases, getting good starting pitching (obviously), and manufacturing runs.
The first of the three may be the hardest. Not only did both Figgins and Abreu have on-base percentages at above .390 -- Figgins led the league in walks with 101, and Abreu was third with 94 -- but they're both excellent base runners and can steal a base whenever they need to. Keeping them off the bases will be the key to keeping the Angels off the scoreboard. Not saying their entire lineup isn't tough, because it is, but still, this is very important.
If the Yankees starters can keep them off the bases they should be able to recreate the success they had in the ALDS. One thing that A.J. Burnett will have to do that he didn't in the LDS is limit his walks. He cannot walk six batters against these guys and get away with it.
Offensively the Yankees cannot rely on Alex Rodriguez the way they did against the Twins. Hitting .225/.288/.431 against this team will only lead to an early exit. This means guys like Hideki Matsui (.222), Mark Teixeira (.167), Robinson Cano (.167), Melky Cabrera (.167), Johnny Damon (.083), and Nick Swish (.083) will have to start pulling their weight.To beat the Angels, not only will they have to hit better than they have this October, but they will also have to play a little small ball. Every run is crucial in this series. The margin for error is much smaller than it was against the much weaker Twins.
Another key that I mentioned earlier in my Phil Hughes post, is that he corrects his problems from the ALDS. He and Dave Eiland said it was a mechanical issue and has already been fixed.
Weather will most likely be a major issue this weekend in the Bronx, with rain expected on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It looks like they'll be able to get tonight's game in, but tomorrow's forecast looks terrible, and Sunday looks a little better. This could be disastrous for the Yanks who are hoping to use CC Sabathia in games 1, 4, and 7. A rainout could cause a loss of an off-day and lead to Chad Gaudin getting a start in Anaheim, something no Yankees fan wants to see. Will learn more about that in the next 36 hours.
This series will be a battle with the two best teams in the American League matching up. Both teams can hit, both teams can pitch, and both teams have deep and effective bullpens. If this one doesn't go six or seven I will be very surprised.
Projected Starters
Game 1: Friday @ 7:57 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Yankee Stadium
LHP CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.35) vs. RHP John Lackey (1-0, 0.00)
Game 2: Saturday @ 7:57 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Yankee Stadium
RHP A.J. Burnett (0-0, 1.50) vs. LHP Joe Saunders (---)
Game 3: Monday @ 4:13 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Angel Stadium
LHP Andy Pettitte (1-0, 1.42) vs. LHP Jered Weaver (1-0, 1.23)
Game 4: Tuesday @ 7:57 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Angel Stadium
LHP CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.35) vs. LHP Scott Kazmir (0-0, 7.50)
*Game 5: Thursday @ 7:57 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Angel Stadium
RHP A.J. Burnett (0-0, 1.50) vs. RHP John Lackey (1-0, 0.00)
*Game 6: Saturday @ 4:13 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Yankee Stadium
LHP Andy Pettitte (1-0, 1.42) vs. LHP Joe Saunders (---)
*Game 7: Sunday @ 8:20 p.m. | TV/Radio: FOX, WCBS | Yankee Stadium
LHP CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.35) vs. RHP Jered Weaver (1-0, 1.23)
(*if necessary)
Players to Watch
YANKEES: Alex Rodriguez - Coming off his amazing ALDS the question on many a fan's mind is "Can he keep it up?" Well, I don't think he can. I don't think he's going to hit .455 against Angels pitching. But that doesn't mean I don't think he could still have a very good series.
In his career against the Angels he's hitting .328/.405/.693, with 67 HR and 151 RBI in 172 games. He was also very good against them in the 2009 campaign where he hit .333/.393/1.000 with 5 HR and 9 RBI. His numbers are also excellent at Angel Stadium, where he's hitting .335/.401/.716 with 37 HR and 82 RBI over 89 games. Besides his home ballparks he's hit more home runs in Anaheim than anywhere else.
Rodriguez vs. Lackey: .176/.295/.471 (9-for-51), 4 HR, 2B, 3B, 6 RBI, 23 K's
Rodriguez vs. Saunders: .500/.533/1.071 (7-for-14), 2 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI
Rodriguez vs. Weaver: .333/.474/1.133, 4 HR, 5 RBI
Rodriguez vs. Kazmir: .125/.300/.125 (3-for-24), 7 K's
ANGELS: Kendry Morales - The big surprise of the Angels season has been their 26-year old first baseman. Coming off a year where he hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 HR and 108 RBI he's been a solid replacement for Mark Teixeira. While not having a great LDS, hitting just .200/.250/.500, but did hit a big homer in game 3 and drove in 3 RBI.
In his career against the Yankees he's hit .333/.381/.641 with 3 HR and 7 RBI. All of the damage came this year when he hit .375/.429/.719 with 3 HR and 7 RBI.
Morales vs. Sabathia: .333/.333/.444 (3-for-9), 2B, 2 RBI
Morales vs. Burnett: .167/.167/.167 (1-for-6), 4 K's
Morales vs. Pettitte: 0-for-5, BB
Position-By-Position Breakdown
(written by Joe)
The fact that the Yankees and Angels are two evenly matched team is well documented. They both can hit, pitch, run, field, the managers know what they're doing, and the benches are deep. Well, let's see who's really got the edge, position by position.
Catcher - Jorge Posada vs Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis:
Posada: .285 AVG, 22 HR, 81 RBIs, .363 OBP, .522 SLG; ALDS- 4/11 (.364 AVG), 1 HR, 2 RBIs
Napoli: .272 AVG, 20 HR, 56 RBIs, .350 OBP, .492 SLG; ALDS- 1 hit/4 ABs, 2 RBIs
Mathis: .211, 5 HR, 28 RBIs, .288 OBP, .308 SLG; ALDS- 1 hit/3 ABs, 1 RBI
It seems like forever ago, but Jorge Posada was out with an injury early this year, and it looked like his days at catcher were extremely numbered. But he has rebounded nicely. Napoli is a power catcher who split time with Mathis during the season (and the ALDS). Mathis is a catcher who has very little pop and is relatively defensive minded. Overall, there's no question- Jorge Posada is better. Edge: Yankees
1st Base - Mark Teixeira vs Kendry Morales:
Mathis: .211, 5 HR, 28 RBIs, .288 OBP, .308 SLG; ALDS- 1 hit/3 ABs, 1 RBI
It seems like forever ago, but Jorge Posada was out with an injury early this year, and it looked like his days at catcher were extremely numbered. But he has rebounded nicely. Napoli is a power catcher who split time with Mathis during the season (and the ALDS). Mathis is a catcher who has very little pop and is relatively defensive minded. Overall, there's no question- Jorge Posada is better. Edge: Yankees
1st Base - Mark Teixeira vs Kendry Morales:
Teixeira: .292 AVG, 39 HR, 122 RBIs, .383 OBP, .565 SLG; ALDS- 2 hits/12 ABs, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Morales: .306, 34 HR, 108 RBIs, .355 OBP, .569 SLG; ALDS- 2 hits/ 10 ABS, 1 HR, 3 RBIs
Teixeira, the ex-Angel, has been a godsend for the Yankees this year, not just with his impressive numbers- but by "clearing" A-Rod's mind. Morales, the guy a lot of people are calling the cheap Teixeira, had a very good year for the Halos and is their main power threat. Teixeira is better with the glove, and has a bit more pop than Morales, though. Edge: Yankees
2nd Base - Robinson Cano vs Howie Kendrick/Macier Izturis:
Cano: .320 AVG, 25 HR, 85 RBIs, .352 OBP, .520 OBP; ALDS- 2/12, 1 RBI
Kendrick: .291, 10 HR, 61 RBIs, .344 OBP, .444 SLG; ALDS- 1 hit/5 At Bats
Izturis: .300 AVG, 8 HR, 65 RBIs, .359 OBP, .454 SLG; ALDS- 1/7, 1 RBI
Cano performs at a high level at all times. Yes, he might dog it sometimes, much less than last year- I'll give him that, but he is a great hitter right now in the Yankees lineup. Kendrick is Yankee killer, that's why he's up there first, and not Izturis, who seems to be getting most of the snaps at 2nd base. No matter who the Angels play, Cano is better- defensively and offensively.
Edge: Yankees
3rd Base - Alex Rodriguez vs Chone Figgins:
Alex Rodriguez: .286 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, .402 OBP, .532 SLG; ALDS- 5/11, 2 HR, 6 RBIs
Chone Figgins: .298 AVG, 5 HR, 54 RBI, .395 OBP, 42 SBs; ALDS- 0/12
Wait? A-Rod was out for a month? Oh, I couldn't tell because he still had 30/100 even though it was EXACTLY that. Figgins is not a power hitter by any means, but he is really fast and can obviously steal. They are both above average defenders but just looking at the numbers, knowing A-Rod, and both of their ALDS's A-Rod gets it. Edge: Yankees
Shortstop - Derek Jeter vs Erick Aybar/Macier Izturis:
Chone Figgins: .298 AVG, 5 HR, 54 RBI, .395 OBP, 42 SBs; ALDS- 0/12
Wait? A-Rod was out for a month? Oh, I couldn't tell because he still had 30/100 even though it was EXACTLY that. Figgins is not a power hitter by any means, but he is really fast and can obviously steal. They are both above average defenders but just looking at the numbers, knowing A-Rod, and both of their ALDS's A-Rod gets it. Edge: Yankees
Shortstop - Derek Jeter vs Erick Aybar/Macier Izturis:
Jeter: .334 AVG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, .406 OBP, 30 SBs; ALDS- 4/10, 1 HR, 2 RBIs
Aybar: .312 AVG, 5 HR, 58 RBI, .353 OBP, 14 SBs; ALDS- 4/11, 2 RBIs
No offense to Aybar or Izturis, but nothing needs to be written here. Edge: Yankees
Left Field - Johnny Damon vs Juan Rivera:
Damon: .282 AVG, 24 HR, 82 RBIs, .365 OBP, 12/12 in SBs; ALDS- 1/12, 4 Ks
Rivera: .287 AVG, 25 HR, 88 RBIs, .332 OBP, .478 SLG; ALDS- 3/11, 2 RBIs
The ex-Yankee Rivera is putting up very nice numbers out in Hollywood, numbers very similar to Johnny's. Damon's speed has depreciated some, but he uses the short right field porch to his benefit- in fact, all of his HRs were to RF, home and away. Damon has more range in the OF, Rivera has a better arm. This is a close one, that's why I'm saying... Edge: Even
Center Field - Melky Cabrera vs Torii Hunter:
Cabrera: .274 AVG, 13 HR, 68 RBIs, .336 OBP, .416 SLG; ALDS- 2/12
Hunter: .299 AVG, 22 HR, 90 RBIs, .366 OBP, .508 SLG; ALDS- 2/10, 1 HR, 3 RBIs
I put Cabrera here because I believe Gardner will only get one, maybe two starts in center this series. Either way, Hunter's got their number- no question. Edge: Angels
Right Field - Nick Swisher vs Bobby Abreu:
Swisher: .249 AVG, 29 HR, 82 RBIs, .371 OBP, .498 SLG; ALDS- 1/12, 1 RBI
Abreu: .293 AVG, 15 HR, 103 RBIs, .390 OBP, .435 SLG; ALDS- 5/9, 1 RBI
Swisher helps this team in other ways. He just doesn't help his team offensively as much as Bobby Abreu does. Abreu still takes his pitches, and in a year where he hit 15 HRs, and was one of two major threats in this lineup for extended time- he got 103 ribbies. Edge: Angels
Designated Hitter - Hideki Matsui vs Vlad Guerrero:
Matsui: .274 AVG, 28 HR, 90 RBIs, .367 OBP, .509 SLG; ALDS- 2/9, 1 HR, 2 RBIs
Guerrero: 295 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBIs, .334 OBP, .460 SLG; ALDS- 4/10, 2 RBIs
This is a close one. Matsui obviously got more playing time, Guerrero was out for A LOT of this year, but Guerrero still put up fairly good numbers. Guerrero is a Yankee killer, and he shows up at big times, and that's the only reason this decision is what is. Edge: Even
Starting Pitching: This was covered earlier this week, and I'll stay away from giving pitcher-pitcher comparisons. Even with a 4 man rotation I still believe: Edge: Yankees.
Bullpen: The Angels still look rocky at points throughout this entire season, meanwhile, the Yanks 'pen has become a force to be reckoned with. Even with Marte in there, Edge: Yankees.
Closer: Is the Yankees closer still Mariano Rivera? Oh, he is? Alright. Edge: Yankees.
Bench: The Angels have a balanced bench, just like the Yanks, Matthews Jr. being their biggest asset. But they don't have a game-changer like Brett Gardner. Edge: Yankees.
Managers: Joe Girardi has done a great job bringing this club together this year. He still makes mistakes more experienced managers wouldn't make. Mike Scioscia is experienced, and has a WS Title. Edge: Angels.
Home Field: The Yankees have the greatest home field advantage in all of baseball. Edge: Yankees.
This is what I think about these players, how bout you?
Injury Report
YANKEES:
- Chien-Ming Wang, SP: 15-day DL is done for the year after arthriscopic surgery on his shoulder. He will likely be out for 12 months.
- Xavier Nady, RF: Done for year, season-ending Tommy John surgery. 10-12 months to recover.
ANGELS:
- Kelvim Escobar, SP: 60-Day DL with right shoulder tenderness
- Dustin Moseley, SP: 60-Day DL with right elbow irritation
- Scot Shields, RP: 60-Day DL after having left knee surgery - out for season