A while back the geniuses at Baseball Prospectus figured out that the three keys to postseason success are having three or four strikeout starters, a strong back end of the bullpen, and a good defense (buy their book Baseball Between the Numbers if you haven't!). Even if you're not a stat guy, just about any baseball insider will agree that, "Pitching and Defense Wins Championships." So, lets take a look at the Angels and Yankees and see how the two teams match up in these three areas. Today I'll start with the top four starting pitchers.
Right now it appears as if they're rotation is going to consist of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and possibly Chad Gaudin. The Angels will counter with John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, and Scott Kazmir.I'm betting on rain right now which means I'm including Gaudin in this comparison.
Sabathia/Lackey- In games one and five we should see some intense pitcher's duels. Both guys are bonafide aces and among the best pitchers in the league. Neither get by on smoke and mirrors, both pitchers rack up the K's. C.C. strikes out about one more guy per nine innings but I have to call this one a wash. These two games could really go either way. Sabathia strikes out about one more guy per nine innings in most years but its not significant enough of a difference to really judge either way. I'd honestly have a tough time going either way on this one.
Burnett/Saunders-Why Mike Scioscia is going with Joe Saunders in games two and six I have no idea. He's a nice pitcher and did a great job for them last year but I don't see how you can justify having him as anything other than your fourth starter. He doesn't throw all that hard, he leans more on keeping his walks and home run totals low than on striking guys out. His K/9 was only 4.89 this year and in 2008 it was only 4.68. Saunders' FIP for the year was 5.17 and his tRA was 5.49. He's a solid back end of the rotation guy but you don't want him starting big games in October for you. On the other side is A.J. Burnett. We all know the story with Burnett by now, he strikes guys out with his great stuff but often struggles with his control and a tendency to give up home run balls. His strikeout rate is what's important in the postseason though and this is what Cashman had in mind when he signed him. The Yankees definitely have a shot at winning both of the games that the two of them will pitch. If they fail to win even one though, I can't really see them winning the series.
Pettitte/Weaver- And here are the two guys that the managers decided to trust with a possible game seven matchup. Pettitte at this point doesn't strike guys out the way he used to. He's become even more of a control pitcher and is far from overpowering with his high 80's fastball. His DIPS numbers also slid back a little this year which makes me more than a little concerned about offering him another contract. In a game seven though, their aren't to many guys I'd trust before Pettitte. He's a big game pitcher and even though he's had his occasional flop, I think Yankees fans trust him to get the job done. Jered Weaver is a damn good pitcher to though. He's in the prime of his career and he's been getting the job done for Anaheim for the past few years. He strikes guys out at a solid rate and keeps the walk totals low. His one weakness, though is that he has trouble keeping the ball on the ground. If he ends up pitching in Yankee Stadium, that could end up being a problem. As much as I love Pettitte in the big game, Weaver is clearly the better pitcher at this point in their careers. The gap isn't huge though and I wouldn't be surprised if Pettitte won one of their two matchups.
Gaudin/Kazmir- I don't believe this matchup is set in tone. The Yankees are already flirting with the idea of Sabathia pitching three games, which is an excellent idea. However, with a rainout as the most likely scenario, I'd bet on this happening. This is an interesting possibility though. Interesting because neither one of these pitchers where even on their current teams on the day of the July 31st trade deadline. Both of them started off the year poorly. However, they came on strong to finish and earn a playoff rotation spot. Their stats are very similar. Both the FIP and tRA are close for the year with Gaudin having a slight edge. Gaudin had a better strikeout rate this year, but historically Kazmir has been far superior. They're both fastball-slider guys with some changeups mixed in. It may not even happen but if it does, it'll be very interesting to see how this one turns out.
These are two very evenly pitching rotations. All of them appear to be even matchups with slight edges going one way or another. The one matchup that sticks out though is Burnett and Saunders. Burnett is clearly the superior pitcher and those games are going to be must wins. That could be the difference between the two teams that could swing this series one way or another. Of course, if the rain does decide to spare New York and C.C. can pitch games one, four, and seven everything changes in the Yankees favor. From what I've heard/read though it looks like at least one game will get rained out. Anything can happen in a short series and once the first pitch is let loose, all this analysis becomes worthless. However, for the first time in a long time the Yankees actually appear to have some power pitching in stock.
