For those of you that are not aware, Fangraphs now has Bill James' projections for the upcoming season on each player's individual page. I am not one-hundred percent certain about James' methodology, but I do know that he considers up to three seasons worth of data, with most of the weight given to the previous season. He also considers a player's age, injury history, and the like. I've also noticed that innings pitched and plate appearances tend to be very similar to the actual numbers from last year, though I'm not sure if that means much of anything.
It's also worth noting that James' projections are notoriously optimistic. While I am quite certain that you'll notice a few regressions here and there, James tends to avoid banking on heavy regression. For the most part, players regress to the mean or progress - as a Yankee fan, that's something that I'm very hopeful for.
Without further ado, here are the key Yankees for 2011, with one prospective Yankee thrown in for good measure.
Jorge Posada
.260/.363/.454, .357 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 16 HR, 414 PA
Jesus Montero
.285/.348/.519, .376 wOBA, 137 wRC+, 21 HR, 442 PA
Mark Teixeira
.282/.383/.532, .393 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 36 HR, 698 PA
Robinson Cano
.308/.356/.502, .371 wOBA, 133 wRC+, 24 HR, 669 PA
Alex Rodriguez
.284/.381/.530, .393 wOBA, 148 wRC+, 35 HR, 621 PA
Derek Jeter
.295/.365/.410, .344 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 13 HR, 703 PA
Brett Gardner
.275/.377/.371, .349 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 5 HR, 50 SB, 589 PA
Curtis Granderson
.264/.341/.471, .355 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 25 HR, 646 PA
Nick Swisher
.257/.359/.472, .362 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 27 HR, 614 PA
CC Sabathia
18-8, 3.32 ERA, 236 IP, 215 H, 65 BB, 202 K
Phil Hughes
12-7, 3.56 ERA, 177 IP, 160 H, 60 BB, 166 K
A.J. Burnett
12-9, 4.01 ERA, 191 IP, 182 H, 77 BB, 177 K
Andy Pettitte
9-7, 3.86 ERA, 140 IP, 144 H, 42 BB, 107 K
Ivan Nova
4-5, 4.61 ERA, 80 IP, 86 H, 36 BB, 57 K
Cliff Lee
14-10, 3.50 ERA, 216 IP, 215 H, 49 BB, 169 K
Joba Chamberlain
5-3, 3.79 ERA, 76 IP, 71 H, 30 BB, 81 K
David Robertson
5-2, 3.04 ERA, 68 IP, 53 H, 35 BB, 89 K
Boone Logan
2-3, 4.40 ERA, 45 IP, 45 H, 20 BB, 43 K
Mariano Rivera
5-2, 1.89 ERA, 62 IP, 47 H, 11 BB, 58 K
Perhaps a more appropriate title would have been "The 2011 Yankees Through Rose-Colored Glasses." Sure, there's some regression there - mostly in the forms of Cano and Swisher regressing towards the mean. At the same time, Posada, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Jeter, Granderson, Hughes, and Burnett look much better than their 2010 numbers would dictate going forward. Regardless, I'd be very satisfied with each and every one of these lines - particularly if Montero comes out of the gate like a young Brian McCann or Johnny Bench.
