Saturday, January 22, 2011

CAIRO Projections

These numbers are from the fine writers of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. You can find the entire set of projections here.

Starting Lineup
Robinson Cano - .306/.355/.511, .372 wOBA, 26 HR, 4 SB
Brett Gardner - .270/.358/.372, .329 wOBA, 5 HR, 38 SB
Curtis Granderson - .252/.335/.462, .346 wOBA, 25 HR, 14 SB
Derek Jeter - .290/.360/.406, .342 wOBA, 13 HR, 15 SB
Russell Martin - .263/.362/.380, .336 wOBA, 11 HR, 11 SB
Jorge Posada - .267/.354/.458, .354 wOBA, 15 HR, 2 SB
Alex Rodriguez - .281/.372/.526, .384 wOBA, 32 HR, 11 SB
Nick Swisher - .260/.354/.470, .357 wOBA, 26 HR, 2 SB
Mark Teixeira - .276/.377/.515, .384 wOBA, 33 HR, 2 SB

Bench
Francisco Cervelli - .255/.326/.347, .303 wOBA, 3 HR, 2 SB
Andruw Jones - .221/.312/.414, .317 wOBA, 16 HR, 6 SB
Jesus Montero - .261/.326/.446, .337 wOBA, 18 HR, 1 SB
Eduardo Nunez - .257/.296/.350, .286 wOBA, 7 HR, 19 SB

Rotation
A.J. Burnett - 187 IP, 189 H, 74 BB, 156 K, 4.66 ERA
Phil Hughes - 172 IP, 161 H, 58 BB, 147 K, 4.22 ERA
Sergio Mitre - 72 IP, 76 H, 21 BB, 43 K, 4.63 ERA
Ivan Nova - 116 IP, 130 H, 49 BB, 72 K, 5.21 ERA
CC Sabathia - 219 IP, 198 H, 60 BB, 176 K, 3.54 ERA

Bullpen
Joba Chamberlain - 85 IP, 81 H, 32 BB, 80 K, 4.25 ERA
Pedro Feliciano - 65 IP, 69 H, 21 BB, 53 BB, 4.18 ERA
Boone Logan - 48 IP, 49 H, 18 BB, 39 K, 4.39 ERA
Mariano Rivera - 68 IP, 49 H, 14 BB, 62 K, 2.69 ERA
David Robertson - 67 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 71 K, 3.99 ERA
Rafael Soriano - 66 IP, 50 H, 17 BB, 61 K, 3.34 ERA

I didn't project an entire 25-man roster, as I doubt that the Yankees are finished making moves. I expect Cashman to add another starter and a utility infielder, and I'm fairly certain that Montero will begin the year at Scranton - his projection was simply too appealing to leave off the list.

As for the projections themselves, I don't find anything to be particularly egregious. I think Jones' overall numbers will be better, as I expect Girardi to use him mostly against lefties, and I'm hopeful that Burnett will bounce back a bit further... otherwise, I'd be satisfied with everything here.
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