Tuesday, January 4, 2011

My Hall of Fame Ballot

With much of the recent baseball talk revolving around the Hall of Fame balloting (the results of which will be announced on Wednesday), I felt it would be appropriate to spark a bit more discussion on the subject. What better way to do that then to allow our faithful readers to tear my figurative ballot to shreds?

Roberto Alomar
12 All-Star Games, 10 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers
162-Game Average: .300/.371/.443, 14 HR, 32 SB, 4.3 WAR

Alomar ranks tenth among second basemen in WAR. The top-six are in the Hall of Fame (Joe Morgan, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Frankie Frisch, Nap Lajoie, Charlie Gehringer), the next two should likely be there (Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich), and the next will likely be inducted in a couple of years (Craig Biggio). His defense may have been a bit overrated, but he was certainly a solid defender with a well-above average bat for the position.

Jeff Bagwell
4 All-Star Games, 1 Gold Glove, 3 Silver Sluggers, 1 MVP, Rookie of the Year
162-Game Average: .297/.408/.540, 34 HR, 15 SB, 6.0 WAR

Bagwell was one of the best players of the 1990s, although it seems as if he has slipped from our collective memory. He spent the better part of his career on middling teams in a pitcher's park, which likely plays some part, and his arthritic shoulder cost him a shot at some sexy round numbers (such as "500" and ".300"). That being said, he has the most WAR of any first baseman between Jimmie Foxx and Albert Pujols (by a fair margin), and his glove and base-running ability separate him from contemporaries like Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas.

Bert Blyleven
2 All-Star Games, 3 Top-5 Cy Young Finishes
162-Game Average: 245 IP, 183 K, 1.20 WHIP, 118 ERA+, 4.4 WAR

Seriously - how has this taken so long? 13th all-time in pitching WAR, including nine top-five finishes. 14th in innings pitched. 5th in strikeouts. 9th in shutouts.

Barry Larkin
12 All-Star Games, 3 Gold Gloves, 9 Silver Sluggers, 1 MVP
162-Game Average: .295/.371/.444, 15 HR, 28 SB, 5.1 WAR

While Larkin did miss quite a few games over the years, it's difficult to overlook the fact that only six twentieth-century shortstops accumulated more WAR than the Reds stalwart. Honus Wagner, Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughan, and Luke Appling are all Hall of Famers, and I doubt that anyone questions their merits. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are likely to sail right in as well, with good reason. Larkin may not have reached the heights of Wagner and Rodriguez, but I feel that he fits comfortably with the other four.

Edgar Martinez
7 All-Star Games, 5 Silver Sluggers
162-Game Average: .312/.418/.515, 24 HR, 4 SB, 5.3 WAR

Edgar Martinez is one of the finest hitters to ever play the game. Few, if any, would dispute that his bat compares favorably to all but the Ruth's, Cobb's, and Williams' of the game - and therein lies the problem. Many would argue that Martinez's role as a designated hitter all but negates his candidacy - all he had to do was hit and sit, rarely donning a glove over the last ten years of his career. While that may be true, I cannot overlook Martinez's prowess with the bat, nor will I concede that someone like Harmon Killebrew was greater due to their ability to stand around in the field. Prior to the advent of the DH, a player's bat would carry his glove at first base or in left field, and I suspect that Martinez's bat would have done so, as well. If kept out, Martinez would certainly be the greatest hitter on the outside looking in.

Tim Raines
7 All-Star Games, 1 Silver Slugger
162-Game Average: .294/.385/.425, 11 HR, 52 SB, 4.2 WAR

Forget the comparisons to Rickey Henderson - were the standard for the Hall of Fame that high, its membership would be slashed in half. Raines was one of the best players of the mid-1980s and one of the very best base-stealers of all-time (84.7% success rate in 954 attempts). He racked up 30.7 WAR between 1983 and 1987, stealing seventy-one bases per year with a 142 OPS+, giving him a fantastic peak that many seem to overlook.

Larry Walker
5 All-Star Games, 7 Gold Gloves, 3 Silver Sluggers, 1 MVP
162-Game Average: .313/.400/.565, 31 HR, 19 SB, 5.5 WAR

Yes, Walker benefited a great deal from pre-humidor Coors Field. He also batted .282/.361/.489 in his non-Rockies days - a period of time that includes his breaking into the league at 22 and retiring at 38. In his last season in Montreal at age 27, Walker hit .322/.394/.587 with 44 2B, 19 HR, and 15 SB - it isn't unreasonable to expect that his numbers would have been stellar in any ballpark at that juncture. In addition to his bat, Walker was also a fine base-runner and tremendous right fielder, according to both his reputation and his defensive metrics - he was far from a one-dimensional player. While I hate to make comparisons to lower-tier Hall of Famers, that does give Walker a huge leg-up on players like Chuck Klein and Jim Rice - corner outfielders bolstered immensely by the home park, while providing little value elsewhere.

Monday, January 3, 2011

A Brief Argument for Russell Branyan

The Yankees do not appear to have a need for a designated hitter - particularly a lefty with fairly pronounced platoon splits. They are also unlikely to have more than four players on the bench at any given time, all but negating the possibility of carrying a player with no positional flexibility. However, I cannot help but relish the thought of Russell the Muscle suiting up for the Yankees. Consider the following spray chart:

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/137140/?pitchers=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2010&to=10%2F3%2F2010
I am not sure that there is another player in Major League Baseball whose swing is more well-suited for Yankee Stadium than Branyan. His prodigious power to right field is well-known to many Yankee fans, on the strength of his upper deck blast last season. Digging a bit deeper, Branyan boasts a .556 SLG for his career in Yankee Stadium, including nine home runs in only eighty-nine at-bats. Consider the right field corner in Branyan's spray chart, move the fence in about twenty feet, and imagine the possibilities.

In the end, this is nothing more than a pipe dream in the midst of a slow news cycle ... but it's a pleasant dream.

Matthews: Yanks Expect To Hear From Pettitte Within A Few Days

From Wallace Matthews:
Now that the holidays are over and Andy Pettitte has had more than enough time to mull over his future, the Yankees expect to hear from him this week on whether or not he will return to pitch in 2011. According to a team official, Pettitte and his family just returned from a Hawaiian holiday vacation and the Yankees believe he will let them know his intentions in a matter of days, after which the team will decide upon its next course of action. "Starter, reliever, a bat, it depends on what's out there,'' the official said. '"But we gotta know what Andy is gonna do first.''
Let's hope this decision comes sooner rather than later. I'm getting kinda sick of seeing the Yanks being forced to wait around, and based on the quote in the article above, that's exactly what they're doing.

Yankees v. Red Sox, Part One: Offense

With the recent conjecture about the Red Sox (with respect to their apparently guaranteed World Series win), I found myself wondering how the team stacks up to the Yankees. No, not the 1927 Yankees that some would say they are poised to unseat as the greatest team ever - the 2011 Yankees. This may be a futile exercise, as the offseason is far from over, but it's worth a quick comparison.

For the sake of clarity, I'll break it down by position. The first set of numbers shall be the player's 2010 production, and the numbers in parentheses represent Bill James' 2011 projections.

Catcher
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - .167/.333/.292, 80 wRC+, 0.1 WAR (.249/.323/.422, .329 wOBA)
Russell Martin - .248/.347/.332, 92 wRC+, 2.1 WAR (.266/.367/.379, .334 wOBA)

First Base
Adrian Gonzalez - .298/.393/.511, 147 wRC+, 5.3 WAR (.285/.378/.512, .387 wOBA)
Mark Teixeira - .256/.365/.481, 130 wRC+, 3.5 WAR (.282/.383/.532, .393 wOBA)

Second Base
Dustin Pedroia - .288/.367/.493, 135 wRC+, 3.3 WAR (.297/.372/.462, .367 wOBA)
Robinson Cano - .319/.381/.534, 145 wRC+, 6.4 WAR (.308/.356/.502, .371 wOBA)

Third Base
Kevin Youkilis - .307/.411/.564, 163 wRC+, 4.2 WAR (.294/.398/.507, .391 wOBA)
Alex Rodriguez - .270/.341/.506, 127 wRC+, 3.9 WAR (.284/.381/.530, .393 wOBA)

Shortstop
Jed Lowrie - .287/.381/.526, 146 wRC+, 1.8 WAR (.270/.361/.467, .363 wOBA)
Derek Jeter - .270/.340/.370, 97 wRC+, 2.5 WAR (.295/.365/.410 .344 wOBA)

Left Field
Carl Crawford - .307/.356/.495, 141 wRC+, 6.9 WAR (.300/.350/.453, .357 wOBA)
Brett Gardner - .277/.383/.379, 123 wRC+, 5.4 WAR (.275/.377/.371, .349 wOBA)

Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury - .192/.241/.244, 39 wRC+, -0.2 WAR (300/.355/.409, .349 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson - .247/.324/.468, 115 wRC+, 3.6 WAR (.264/.341/.471, .355 wOBA)

Right Field
J.D. Drew - .255/.341/.452, 114 wRC+, 2.6 WAR (.263/.370/.460, .365 wOBA)
Nick Swisher - .288/.359/.511, 136 wRC+, 4.1 WAR (.257/.359/.472, .362 wOBA)

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz - .270/.370/.529, 137 wRC+, 3.3 WAR (.261/.366/.509, .380 wOBA)
Jorge Posada - .248/.357/.454, 122 wRC+, 2.4 WAR (.260/.363/.454, .357 wOBA)

In my mind, it would be somewhat inane to call this anything other than a push. A very haphazard, inexact calculation gives the Red Sox starting line-up a projected .365 wOBA. The Yankees? A .362 wOBA.

As it stands, the Red Sox are a bit younger, and they do have Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro on the bench (an area where the Yankees remain thin), both of which weigh a bit in their favor. That being said, Jesus Montero is merely a phone call away, and the Yankees have been linked to the Brothers Hairston, either of which would greatly improve the bench.

For now, I would give the Red Sox the slightest of edges, but it remains far too early to posit an informed opinion - and it's entirely nonsensical to compare the Red Sox offense to perhaps the greatest offense of all-time. Check back tomorrow to see how the starting rotation's compare.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

This Week in Yankees History (1/2-1/8)

This Week in Yankees History 

January 2nd – January 8th

January 2nd

1963 - Former Yankees P Al Mamaux (1924) passed away. Al Mamaux pitched a dozen seasons in the majors. He won 21 games with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1915-1916. He appeared in the 1920 World Series for the Brooklyn Dodgers. On July 12, 1924, Al was purchased by the New York Yankees from Reading (International). He appeared in 14 games with the 1924 New York Yankees posting a 1-1 record. He sat out 1925 MLB season, following his final season in the majors. On December 16, 1925, Al was purchased by the Yankees from Newark (International League), but he returned to the mound for the Newark Bears in 1926. He led the International League with a 2.22 ERA that season. He paced the circuit with 25 wins with a 2.61 ERA in 1927. Later Al Mamaux managed the Newark Bears (1930-1933) and the Albany Senators (1936-1937). He was the head coach at Seton Hall University from 1937-1942. His teams had an overall record of 69-19. The 1942 team went undefeated. In 1951, Al was elected to the International League Hall of Fame. He was selected for the Seton Hall University Sports Hall of Fame in 1975. Al was selected for the Duquesne University Sports Hall of Fame in 1988.

1963 - Former Yankees P David Cone (1995-2000) was born. On July 28, 1995, Dave Cone was traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees for minor league players: P Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon. Dave went 64-40 as a Yankees starter. He was 2-0 in four World Series with the Yankees. David Cone compiled an 8–3 postseason record over 21 postseason starts. He was a part of five World Series championship teams (1992 Blue Jays and 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000 Yankees). He had a career postseason ERA of 3.80. After pitching a perfect game on July 18, 1999, against the Montreal Expos (the last no-hitter to date by a Yankee pitcher), he seemed to suddenly lose effectiveness. The 1st inter-league perfect game was the last shutout; he would throw in his MLB career. After retiring from MLB, David has worked with the YES network covering the Yankees.

Tomase: "Yankees won't be a factor in the AL East"

From John Tomase:
By September, the Yankees won’t be a factor in the AL East. This is shaping up to be an ugly transition year in Gotham, with age creeping around all over the diamond, from shortstop (Derek Jeter) to third (Alex Rodriguez) to designated hitter (Jorge Posada).

The starting pitching remains thin beyond CC Sabathia and the bullpen beyond Rivera is a year-to-year crapshoot.

They’ll beat up on enough bad pitching to hang around, but don’t be surprised if they end up filling the role played by the Red Sox last September — contender in name only.
A lot can change between now and October, but barring a major trade or breakout year from a pitching prospect or two (in the majors), but I'm finding it very hard to disagree with anything said above. With the team they currently have I think it's Wild Card or bust, and that might be a stretch.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

NESN Believes 2011 Sox Can Challenge '27 Yanks As Best Team Ever

I'm not going to quote anything from the ridiculous article, but if you feel like a good laugh, click here.

Happy New Year!

Hey everybody, I hope you all had a fun (and safe) New Years Eve. To all the readers out there, thanks for another great year at SIH. The blog is useless without you guys.

So, besides World Series #28, what are you all hoping for in 2011?