Hughes and Nova Make Verducci's Annual Injury Risk List

We post about this article every season, but here's a bit of a refresher from Tom Verducci:

More than a decade ago, drawing on the advice of pitching coach Rick Peterson, I developed a rule of thumb that pitchers 25 and younger should not increase their workload by more than 30 innings. It's the same theory as training for a marathon: you risk injury by jumping from a 10K to the marathon instead of incremental increases. I called it the Year After Effect because the wear and tear often was followed by regression or injury the next year.

The concept of capping innings for young pitchers has become an industry standard. One AL general manager told me during spring training last year that his club's organizational pitching reports now include a "VE" column -- for Verducci Effect, a measurement of innings increase.

...

Now it's time to identify the red-flagged pitchers of 2011 -- the 25-and-younger pitchers whose workload last year jumped by more than 30 innings. (All innings are considered: minors, Arizona Fall League, majors and postseason. Pitchers such as Jaime Garcia of St. Louis, who made a big jump from 2009 but were close to a total from previous pro seasons, were not included.)

Remember, this is a rule of thumb meant simply to identify pitchers who pushed the envelope to put them more at risk than others. And keep in mind that as Hernandez, Johnson and Scherzer proved last year, the risk is much lower for bigger-bodied pitchers who are at the older end of the age spectrum.

As you can see, both Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova made Verducci's list. Here's his list from last year.

That list included Joba Chamberlain, Bud Norris, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Josh Johnson, Rick Porcello, Cesar Carrillo, Max Scherzer, Wade Davis and Felix Hernandez. Here's how those pitchers' 2010s went:

• Chamberlain: Made 73 injury-free relief appearances for the Yanks. Wasn't great, but did run into some bad luck which hurt his numbers. (His FIP was 2.98 and xFIP was 3.34. He ERA, however, was 4.40.)
  

• Norris: Made 30 starts between the major and the minors.His 4.92 ERA with the Astros was slightly worse than the 4.53 ERA he had in 2009.
  

• Latos: Made 31 starts and finished 8th in the NL Cy Young voting.

• Bailey: Hit the 15-Day DL but was still able to make 27 starts between the majors and minors for the Reds. In his 19 major league starts he posted a career-best 4.46 ERA.
  

• Johnson: Was on his way to a possible Cy Young award before being shut down in early September after complaining of problems with his back and shoulder.

• Porcello: Did regress, but he was healthy and made 31 starts between Triple-A and the Majors.

• Carrillo: Also regressed and bounced around a few teams at the end of the year after being designated for assignment several time. But like Porcello, remained healthy and made 27 starts.

• Scherzer: Posted a 3.50 ERA in 31 starts (195 innings) for the Tigers.

• Davis: Missed some time in early-August, but was still able to make 29 starts for the Rays while posting a respectable 4.07 ERA in the AL East.

• Hernandez: Won the AL Cy Young award.

So, it would seem that while all of these guys stayed pretty healthy, some did regress and fall victim to the Verducci Effect (or the law of averages). The rest had pretty normal seasons by their standards and some were even better than they were the year before. We'll have to wait and see about this year's group, but I wouldn't be too concerned about Hughes and Nova.

Better Know a Prospect Countdown: 15 - 6

You can find part one of this series here. This post will remain at the top of the page throughout the day, so scroll down a bit for other news and musings throughout the day.

#15
Jose Ramirez, RHP, 20
A - 115 IP, 106 H, 42 BB, 105 K, 3.60 ERA

I may be a bit optimistic with this projection, as many believe that Ramirez is destined to be a reliever. While that argument is not without merit, I cannot help but feel that he could be a tremendous closer at that, which could justify this ranking as well (think pre-injury Eric Gagne). Ramirez is primarily a fastball and change-up pitcher. His fastball sits around 94 MPH with great movement, and his change-up is even better - it's a high-70s offering with the same arm action as his fastball and cutter-like movement. The issue here is his curveball, which remains a work in progress and is erratic at best. With even an average curve, however, he could be a number two starter - he's certainly young enough to improve.

#14
Corban Joseph, 2B, 22
A+/AA - .283/.362/.415, 6 HR, 6 SB, 58 BB, 107 K

In his time with the Yankees organization, Joseph has garnered a reputation for being a video junkie. He spends hours in the video room, breaking down his at-bats and swing mechanics in working to improve his approach at the plate. This has worked quite well to-date, as Joseph is a tremendous line-drive hitter with fine plate discipline and good bat control. To many, Joseph is quite similar to Michael Young in this regard - and therein lies the rub. Like Young, Joseph may not have a true position. He has the athleticism and arm strength for second or third, but his reaction time and first step have been routinely questioned. Should he move over to the hot corner, his value would assuredly take a hit due to his middling power. I'm confident that his work ethic will aid him in becoming at least a passable second baseman, though not enough so to rank him much higher.

#13b
Ivan Nova, RHP, 23
AAA - 145 IP, 135 H, 48 BB, 115 K, 2.86 ERA
MLB - 42 IP, 44 H, 17 BB, 26 K, 4.50 ERA

Nova is something of a known quantity at this point, but I would be doing our readers a disservice by not discussing him a bit. His repertoire includes a solid-average fastball (between 90 and 92 MPH), change-up, and curve, all of which have shown flashes of improvement. The main concern here is that there's simply no deception in Nova's delivery, so when his stuff isn't at its best, hitters will be able to tee-off on his fastball. There's time for him to tinker with his delivery, but I'm not sure that his stuff could take him much higher than a fourth starter - he actually reminds me of Javier Vazquez, but reaching that level would take a bit more than a refashioned delivery.

#13a
Eduardo Nunez, SS, 23
AAA - .289/.340/.381, 4 HR, 23 SB, 32 BB, 60 K
MLB - .280/.321/.360, 1 HR, 5 SB, 3 BB, 2 K

This ranking involves my giving Baseball America the benefit of the doubt. Over the fall, BA rated Nunez as the best defensive shortstop in the International League, and credited him with the best infield arm, to boot. They project Nunez as an above-average Major League shortstop, which could make him a fine regular for any team. He's a very good base-runner, makes a great deal of contact, and he's developed more plate discipline as he's progressed through the system - his Triple-A line, I think, could be a reasonable expectation for Nunez. The caveat here is that many scouts and analysts are not as fond of Nunez's defense, rating him anywhere from poor to mediocre to average, and rarely much better. His glove will carry him to whatever heights he may reach, and his legs will keep him on the Yankees roster.

#12
David Adams, 2B, 23
AA - .309/.393/.507, 3 HR, 5 SB, 18 BB, 31 K

It is very difficult to differentiate between Adams and Joseph. Both are underwhelming fielders. Both have a gap-to-gap line-drive stroke. Both have solid walk and strikeout rates. Neither hits for much power. The reason I rank Adams a bit higher is that I believe that he's closer to the Majors (despite his season-ending ankle injury) and have a bit more faith in his glove. Where Joseph will need to work to become a passable second baseman, Adams is already at that undistinguished level - and prior to the injury, many felt that Adams had improved a great deal in 2010. If he's fully recovered from his injury, Adams could move quickly this season.

#11
David Phelps, RHP, 24
AA/AAA - 158.2 IP, 139 H, 36 BB, 141 K, 2.50 ERA

Like Nova, Phelps does not currently have a true swing-and-miss pitch. Unlike Nova, Phelps has terrific mechanics and a power fastball. The Notre Dame product has a fastball that sits around 94 MPH, a low-90s two-seamer, a borderline-plus curve in the upper 70s, and a fledgling change-up and slider. He excellent control of all of his pitches and generates ground balls at a fine rate, as well. I've heard comparisons to Mike Mussina and Roy Oswalt, in terms of delivery and approach, but I'm not sure that his curve has that sort of potential - though, I wouldn't mind seventy-five percent of Mussina.

#10
Austin Romine, C, 22
AA - .268/.324/.402, 10 HR, 2 SB, 37 BB, 94 K

Ranking Romine here may be a bit of an overreaction to his struggles from June through the Arizona Fall League, though I would prefer to say that it's more a reflection of my confidence in the players to follow. Thus far, Romine has shown flashes of the athleticism, agility, and arm strength necessary to be an excellent defensive catcher, yet he has been plagued with bouts of inconsistency behind the plate. Perhaps it is simply a matter of the wear and tear taking its toll, but Romine performed poorly with the bat and the glove for the better part of 2010 - that's difficult to overlook entirely. I believe that his potential has been undersold a bit, likely due to his sharing duties with Montero for a time, and he has all the tools necessary to be a fine everyday catcher with an above-average bat and a bit of pop. Put simply, however, he has some work to do.

#9
Hector Noesi, RHP, 23
A+/AA/AAA - 160.1 IP, 148 H, 28 BB, 153 K, 3.20 ERA

Noesi strikes me as the most Major League ready of the Yankees prospects - and yes, that includes Ivan Nova. Noesi throws a mid-90s fastball with fantastic movement and a low-80s change-up to both sides of the plate. On top of that, he combines a minuscule walk rate with fine ground ball numbers. Further, he profiles as a workhorse and, after throwing so many innings last season, could likely handle a full workload as early as this year. The knock against Noesi is that he doesn't have much beyond his fastball and change-up, as his slider and curve are inconsistent and somewhat wild. I've read a comparison to Ian Kennedy, but that doesn't really make sense - Kennedy is more of a flyball pitcher, and his fastball isn't terribly close in raw power. Dan Haren makes a bit more sense, but Noesi's curve has a great deal of growth to do.

#8
Slade Heathcott, CF, 20
A - .258/.359/.352, 3 HR, 15 SB, 42 BB, 101 K

In addition to having the second coolest name in the system (behind a pitcher yet to come), Heathcott may have the most raw talent of any prospect in the system. A true center fielder, Heathcott has blazing speed and a cannon arm. He has a patient approach at the plate, a line-drove stroke, and the frame that suggests that he'll develop decent power. His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, though he did remove a few wrinkles from his swing as the season progressed, making better contact as the season wore on. To be honest, I had the urge to rank Heathcott within the top-three due to all of those factors - but he's simply too unrefined to do so. This time next year, however...

#7
Graham Stoneburner, RHP, 23
A/A+ - 142 IP, 107 H, 34 BB, 137 K, 2.41 ERA

And we've arrived at the best name in the system. I could have swapped Stoneburner and the following pitcher, as I see both with similar floors and ceilings (though the next pitcher is more advanced), but I couldn't resist the opportunity to have Slade Heathcott and Graham Stoneburner back-to-back. Stoneburner features a running fastball that sits around 94 MPH and an average slider and change-up. He has fine control horizontally, but he does have a tendency to let the ball drift up in the zone which could lead to some longball issues. That could be mitigated, however, if his change continues to show improvement. As it stands, Stoneburner limits walks, strikes out a terrific amount of batters, and keeps the ball on the ground - there's not much else one could ask for.

#6
Adam Warren, RHP, 23
A+/AA - 135.1 IP, 121 H, 33 BB, 126 K, 2.59 ERA

I highly doubt that you'll find another source with Warren rated this highly, but I'm not quite sure why. He may not have the ceiling of an ace, like those to be ranked ahead of him, but he certainly has the highest floor of any pitcher in the system. Warren showcases fantastic command of all of his pitches, an arsenal which includes a mid-90s fastball, a low-90s cutter, a low-90s two-seamer, and a low-80s change. His curve is a substandard pitch at this juncture, but I'm not quite sure that that matters terribly. The most comparable pitcher is Chien-Ming Wang, and I feel that Warren's baseline is somewhere around Wang's career numbers. Warren isn't likely to set the world on fire, but he's equally unlikely to crash and burn.

First Half of ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball Schedule

This was released earlier today:

April 3: San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers (ESPN2)
April 10: N.Y. Yankees at Boston
April 17: Texas at N.Y. Yankees
April 24: Cincinnati at St. Louis
May 1: N.Y. Mets at Philadelphia
May 8: Atlanta at Philadelphia
May 15: Boston at N.Y. Yankees
May 22: Chicago Cubs at Boston
May 29: Cincinnati at Atlanta (ESPN2)
June 5-July 3 TBD
July 10: N.Y. Mets at San Francisco
July 17: Boston at Tampa Bay

I've never been a fan of ESPN broadcasts so I'm happy to see the Yankees on here just three times. That's more than enough.

That said, on June 5th the Yankees play in Anaheim against the Angels and on July 3rd they play the Mets in Queens, so don't be surprised to see one or both of those games added.

Yanks Finalize Their Coaching Staff

From Bryan Hoch:

The Yankees have finalized their coaching staff for the 2011 season, and they announced on Tuesday that five members will return to their respective positions.

Mike Harkey, Mick Kelleher, Kevin Long, Tony Pena and Rob Thomson will serve familiar roles with the club when the Yankees' pitchers and catchers report to George M. Steinbrenner Field on Feb. 14.

The only change in New York's staff is the addition of pitching coach Larry Rothschild, a move that was announced in November. Rothschild replaces Dave Eiland, who was let go after the season and has accepted an advisory role with the Tampa Bay Rays.

No complaints here.

Bonderman an Unlikely Target

This is probably good news, and may mean they're leaning more towards Justin Duchscherer . Between he and Bonderman. I'd much rather see Duchscherer in Pinstripes, despite the injury concerns.

Yanks Eyeing Duchscherer

From Jerry Crasnick:

The New York Yankees, still in the market for pitching help, are stepping up their pursuit of free agent Justin Duchscherer, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

Duchscherer, 33, has a career record of 33-25 with a 3.13 ERA in eight seasons with the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers. He made the American League All-Star team as a reliever with Oakland in 2005 and again as a starter in 2008.

Duchscerer overcame clinical depression issues during his time in Oakland, but he's thrown only 28 innings over the past two seasons because of a variety of injuries.

It's uncertain whether the Yankees are looking at Duchscherer as a starter or a reliever.

Duchschere made $1.75 million last year so if the Yankees can sign him for a similar amount I think it would be worth the risk and I'd like to see the Yankees take a chance here. When he can stay on the field he's been a pretty effective starter and reliever.

Yankees Still Serious About Andruw Jones

Regardless of the money, who would you rather the Yankees signed? Damon, Jones, or Thames?

Better Know a Prospect Countdown: 25 - 16

Over the coming week, I will be posting my top-twenty-five Yankees prospects. The rankings are based on an inexact blend of the prospect's ceiling, floor, ETA, and their likelihood of reaching their ceiling. I tried to avoid the pitfalls of group think and the current roster construction of the Yankees, but a consensus is usually arrived at for good reason. There are certainly a few surprises and sleepers here, and I do think the upper reaches of the list are different from several other analysts - but the best way to learn about the Yankees prospects is to devour as many of these lists as possible.

Today we begin with the bottom portion of the countdown. The next block will be posted on Wednesday, and the top-five will come on Friday. For the most part, each tier is fairly fluid, with each prospect having a fair amount of wiggle room in terms of the actual number.

We will keep these on top for the day with new posts showing up just below, so keep an eye open for that.

Without further ado...

#25
Dan Burawa, RHP, 22
A - 7 IP, 8 H, 7 BB, 10, 7.71 ERA

While it may be difficult to be enthusiastic about Burawa's numbers at face value, there is a great deal of intrigue here. A power reliever, Burawa throws a mid-90s fastball with good sink (racking up a ton of grounders), an average curveball, and the makings of a fringe-y change-up - all of which point to him rocketing through the system.

#24
Eduardo Sosa, CF, 19
A - .256/.353/.394, 2 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 48 K

Would it be too much of a cop-out to say that Sosa is Brett Gardner 2.0? Fantastic speed, terrific glovework, fine plate discipline, and not much in the power department. The key difference may lie in Sosa's pull-happy approach, which could end up hindering his progress if his power doesn't develop as expected.

#23
Tommy Kahnle, RHP, 21
A - 16 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 25 K, 0.56 ERA

Kahnle simply outclassed Single-A hitters in his professional debut, and he seems poised to move quickly through the system. The burly righty features a mid-90s fastball and a fine change-up, and his curveball remains a work in progress (which may be a bit optimistic, as he simply cannot control the pitch). Both Kahnle and Burawa profile as top-notch relievers.

#22
Shaeffer Hall, LHP, 23
A/A+ - 137 IP, 133 H, 21 BB, 103 K, 2.89 ERA

I'm not quite sure why Hall has flown so far under the radar, but I cannot help but think that that won't continue for much longer. A true workhorse, Hall works with a high-80s two-seamer, a high-70s curve, and a mid-70s change-up. He keeps the ball on the ground, walks very few batters, and has garnered more swings and misses as he's progressed. Mark Buehrle is a fine comparison.

#21
D.J. Mitchell, RHP, 23
AA/AAA - 150.2 IP, 147 H, 64 BB, 112 K, 4.00 ERA

Mitchell may be the most difficult prospect to rank. His overall numbers are solid, yet he has struggled a great deal against left-handed batters leading many to doubt his future as a starter. Mitchell's bread and butter is his low-90s sinker, but his curveball has improved dramatically over the past two seasons. More importantly, he has become more comfortable with his change-up, which is the key to his ability to handle lefties.

#20
Melky Mesa, CF, 23
A+ - .260/.338/.475, 19 HR, 31 SB, 44 BB, 129 K

I struggled a great deal with this ranking, as Mesa may very well have the best all-around skillset in the system. He's capable of consistently knocking twenty to twenty-five home runs and stealing twenty to twenty-five bases, while playing fine defense in center. At the same time, he's also capable of batting .220 and striking out 160-plus times. In the end, I think he could be another Mike Cameron, but he's still a bit far away for a 23-year old.

#19
Brandon Laird, 3B, 23
AA/AAA - .281/.336/.482, 25 HR, 2 SB, 42 BB, 111 K

I'm very bearish with Laird. On one hand, Laird has a great deal of power, a very strong arm, and could stick at third base if he maintains his conditioning. On the other hand, he struggles to make contact at times, doesn't work the count, and seems to have lost a bit of agility with each passing season. Laird reminds me a bit of Xavier Nady, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him develop into a similar player.

#18
Cito Culver, SS, 18
Rk/A - .251/.325/.330, 2 HR, 7 SB, 21 BB, 51 K

The ranking may not bear this out, but I'm very bullish on Culver. He has the arm and athleticism to stick at short long-term, and I do think that he's capable of hitting well for the position. His walk rate against much older competition is impressive, as is his ability to hit to all fields. In short, there really isn't much to dislike. The primary reasoning for his placement is that he's several years away, and that is the greatest obstacle for all prospects to overcome.

#17
Brett Marshall, RHP, 20
Rk/A/A+ - 84 IP, 63 H, 26 BB, 70 K, 2.57 ERA

Marshall thrived in 2010, less than a year removed from Tommy John Surgery. His stuff appeared to be all the way back, to boot - low-to-mid-90s four-seamer, low-90s two-seamer, and a knee-buckling low-80s slider. His change-up remains a work in progress, but he's still very young and relatively inexperienced, having been primarily a shortstop in high school. Marshall's mechanics and injury history are responsible for this low-ish ranking, but with a healthy 2011 I'd expect him to jump ten-plus spots on this list.

#16
J.R. Murphy, C, 19
A - .255/.327/.376, 7 HR, 4 SB, 36 BB, 64 K

Murphy may very well be the most intriguing catching prospect that the Yankees have. I would argue that he's the most athletic of the group and that he boasts the strongest, most accurate arm. As a result, he's the likeliest to stick behind the plate (though many believe he could shift to third if necessary). Murphy has only been catching for about three years now, but he's improved drastically from year to year, maintaining a reputation as a very devoted student of the game. His offense improved as 2010 progressed, with his walk rate and power increasing from month to month. He's more of a line-drive hitter than a true home run threat, but his flyball rate could be a sign of things to come. I may be overly optimistic, but everything I've seen and read about Murphy reminds me of Edgar Martinez.