Speculation, Conjecture, Redundancy, and the 2011 Rotation

We've analyzed the free agent market for potential starting pitchers over and over. We've discussed most every name that has popped-up in trade rumors. We've looked into potential in-house candidates. What we haven't done is make reasonable assumptions about who might be available. The reasonable basis for this post is, in my mind, the fact that each of the following pitchers are potential free agents after this season (and may be dealt under the right circumstances), with the assumption being that those circumstances already exist or that a contingency may already be planned.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
2010 - 235.0 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 51.0% GB, 2.84 K/BB

The Cardinals are certainly contenders in a wide open NL Central, but they are certain to find themselves in a precarious position in 2012. In addition to Albert Pujols' impending free agency, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina will get raises and Colby Rasmus may qualify for arbitration - and this coming without much coming off of the books. Carpenter remains a fine starting pitcher, but he is also expensive ($15 MM in 2011 and a $15 MM option for 2012), somewhat old, and injury-prone. I think he would be the most costly of the bunch, but he's also the very best.

Aaron Cook, Rockies
2010 - 127.2 IP, 5.08 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 58.1% GB, 1.19 K/BB

Cook may be the odd-man out of a crowded Rockies rotation - he's the nominal fifth starter on a team with two or three prospects close to the Majors. He struggled with injuries last season, but he maintained a fantastic groundball rate, which is a key to success in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. Where Carpenter would give the Yankees a formidable one-two punch, Cook would bolster the back-end of the rotation. I imagine he could be had for a reasonable package of middling prospects.

Joel Pineiro, Angels
2010 - 152.1 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 54.9% GB, 2.71 K/BB

I would be shocked if the Angels don't try to move either Pineiro or Scott Kazmir, considering the amount of payroll they added with Vernon Wells, and will add once Jered Weaver's contract situation is settled. I'm quite certain that the Angels would prefer to move Kazmir, but I'm equally certain that they'd have a hell of a time attempting to do so - he's owed $12 MM this season and hasn't been healthy or effective over the past two seasons. Pineiro shares injury concerns, but he's been very good over the past two seasons and has a reasonable salary. His combination of limiting walks and burning worms would work quite well for the Yankees - he's the middle ground between Carpenter and Cook, in terms of cost and quality.

Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
2010 - 195.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 47.9% GB, 2.62 K/BB

Rodriguez may be the likeliest of all the players listed to be dealt. He's likely to earn over $10 MM after arbitration in 2011, he's unlikely to stick with the Astros beyond this season, and he's a very desirable target for most any team - a durable lefty with above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. As the Astros need a little bit of everything, the Yankees may be able to cobble together a strong package without touching the top-five or so prospects in the system.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers
2010 - 204.0 IP, 3.35 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 49.2% GB, 1.83 K/BB

While the Rangers have been linked to Halladay, Lee, and Greinke over the past two seasons, I'm not quite sure that they'll hold onto Wilson beyond this season. Hamilton and Cruz are slated to garner sizable raises in arbitration, Beltre will earn an average of $16 MM over the next five years, and several younger players will be arbitration-eligible next year. With Lewis, Harrison, Webb, Feldman, Holland, and Hunter under contract, Feliz interesting in moving back to the rotation, and Scheppers and Perez as fine prospects, Wilson may very well be expendable as the most expensive arm in the stable. From the Yankees' perspective, Wilson's a Wandy-lite - but he would be an upgrade over every starter but Sabathia.

In the end, I'm not quite sure what each team would expect as a return. The Yankees have valuable trade chips throughout the system, particularly in the pitching department - Phelps, Noesi, Warren, and Stoneburner are quite good, and each fall within the second-tier of Yankees prospects. The Cardinals, Angels, Astros, and Rangers could use a catcher, as well, so perhaps Austin Romine's value could be gauged. Otherwise, I'm not terribly certain where to begin.

Heyman: Yankees Interested in Brian Fuentes

Why?

For his career, Fuentes does have some decent numbers against righties, as well, which may make him an attractive candidate at face value. Digging a bit deeper, we see that righties have batted .233/.333/.416 against Fuentes over the past two seasons, taking him deep eleven times in only 262 AB. Those numbers aren't horrific per se, but they are trending downward. In short, Fuentes is a fine lefty specialist at this point in his career - he's probably a better option than either Logan or Feliciano in that regard. However, with Logan improving as the season wore on and Feliciano making a fair amount, it doesn't really make sense to bring another expensive LOOGY on-board.

George King: Yankees Interested in Webb, Garcia, and Francis (Updated)

(UPDATED: 4:57PM) So much for Webb, he just signed with the Rangers.

As per the New York Post:

The Rangers beat the Yankees in the ALCS, then watched Cliff Lee jilt both the Yankees and themselves.

Yet, the Rangers still have the Yankees on their minds. The AL champs have an interest in free agent pitcher Brandon Webb, and this week heard Webb had a visit with the Yankees planned this coming week in New York.

That, according to a Yankees source, isn't accurate. While the Yankees are monitoring Webb, they don't appear to be in a hurry to do anything with the right-hander who, due to shoulder problems, has worked one game in the past two years.

With Lee in Philadelphia and Andy Pettitte "leaning toward" retirement, according to general manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees need at least one starter.

However, the pool wasn't deep with Lee in the water.

"There is not much available," Cashman said this week.

The Yankees have asked for Freddy Garcia's medical records, have an interest in lefty Jeff Francis and are monitoring Webb. The Phillies are watching what Pettitte does, because they are expected to dangle right-hander Joe Blanton as trade bait.

Garcia went 12-6 with a 4.64 ERA in 28 games for the White Sox last year. Due to shoulder woes, he appeared in a dozen games combined in 2008 and 2009.

An organization not interested in Webb believes he might not be ready until July.

Francis missed the entire 2009 season due to shoulder surgery and went 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 20 games for the Rockies last season. He was 17-9 in 2007 but a combined 8-16 in 2008-10.

With Cashman admitting stud prospects Manuel Banuelos and Dellin Betances aren't ready -- along with existing doubts that Ivan Nova can fill a spot in the back of the rotation -- the chances of the Yankees adding an arm before the July 31 trade deadline are good.

Francis, 30 early next month, is intriguing. He has a 55-50 career record and a 4.77 ERA in six seasons. Shoulder surgery robbed him of 2009 and he didn't pitch until May of this past season. After paying Francis $5.8 million, the Rockies declined a $7 million option.

He isn't Lee or Pettitte. But if healthy, he likely is better than Nova or Sergio Mitre.

"He could be a fourth starter for the Yankees, he has no fear and a big heart," an NL talent evaluator said of Francis.

Of these three, I would prefer Jeff Francis - he's a lefty, he limits walks, and he keeps the ball on the ground. Brandon Webb would be next in-line, despite his injury concerns, as I cannot purge my memories of his past dominance. Freddy Garcia represents the bottom of the barrel, though he could be a solid back-end starter.

Crasnick: Yankees Have Some Interest in Francis

When healthy, Francis is a fine pitcher - he limits walks, keeps the ball on the ground, and garners a respectable amount of strikeouts. His 5.00 ERA is a bit unsightly, but his 3.88 FIP and 3.94 xFIP suggest that a fair bit of bad luck was at play, particularly when taken in kind with his solid 2.91 K/BB and 47.0% ground ball rate. The issue here, though, is that Francis hasn't been healthy over the past three seasons, with a problematic shoulder being the primary concern. While Francis did pitch without much discomfort is 2010, Ben Sheets and Brandon Webb are a testament to the potential ramifications of shoulder problems.

Even so, I do think that Francis would be a fine addition to the Yankees. He would likely be expected to be the fourth or fifth starter, and the team would be able to skip his turn every so often as a means to save a bit of wear and tear. It may not be saying much, but I do think that Francis is the best remaining option on the free agent market.

Yankees Sign Luis Vizcaino

I don't have terribly fond memories of Vizcaino, nor am I enthused by his recent injury history. That being said, I do like Cashman's low-cost, low-risk approach to creating bullpen depth throughout the system. Vizcaino isn't likely to provide the Yankees with much, and I would be shocked to see him receive any moderately leveraged situations, but it's a sensible move.

Scratch Nolasco Off of the Wish List

As per the South Florida Sun Central:

Not only do the Marlins have no plans to trade right-hander Ricky Nolasco, they're on the verge of making a long-term commitment.

According to a league source, the Marlins and Nolasco have agreed in principle to a three-year, $26.5 million contract. An official announcement should sometime this week. Nolasco would become the second starter in as many years to sign a long-term deal with the Marlins. Last January, the Marlins made a four-year, $39 million commitment to ace Josh Johnson.

Saturday, Foxsports.com reported Nolasco and the Marlins had reached an impasse only to come back Sunday with news the two sides were closing in on a three-year, $27 million deal. This contract will buy out Nolasco's remaining two years of arbitration-eligibility and his first year of free agency.

While I would have liked to see Nolasco don the pinstripes in 2011, I'm not too torn up about this. Nolasco certainly had his flaws, and this sort of deal from the Marlins indicates that they have a fairly high opinion of the burly right-hander - which, in turn, would have driven up his trade cost. Regardless, it's good to see the Marlins opening the coffers after dealing Uggla earlier this offseason.

Sources: Greinke Traded to the Brewers

As per ESPN:

In the deal, the Royals are reportedly acquiring Brewers outfielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar and pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress for the 27-year-old Greinke, 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA in 2010 after winning the 2009 Cy Young.

This deal is, in my mind, about quantity over quality. The Royals were seeking up the middle talent and pitching, and they settled for a sampler of sorts. Given the depth of their farm system, it certainly makes sense to target certain positions (as opposed to asking for the best possible talent), but it still seems as if they settled when they really didn't have to.

While reading about this deal, it became apparent to me that the Yankees were simply not interested in Greinke. A very rough equivalent deal would be Brett Gardner, Eduardo Nunez, Adam Warren, and Andrew Brackman, and perhaps another middle infield piece (David Adams or Corban Joseph) - sure, that's a lot of talent, but they'd also retain their top four or five prospects (depending on how you feel about Brackman). The greatest difference between the two offers is the gap between Escobar and Nunez, which I believe the Yankees could have overcome in offering better pitching. That is entirely speculative, however, and the Royals search for trade partners could have hinged entirely on the shortstop position.

Rivera May Ask Pettitte to Take One More Shot

As per the Daily News:

As Andy Pettitte continues mulling whether to play in 2011, a teammate who admires him is considering doing a little recruiting.

Mariano Rivera hasn't called Pettitte yet, but said Thursday, "I might try to reach him soon. My message will be - I want to hear what he's doing, what he wants to do. If he wants to continue playing, I think we would have a good shot."

Rivera even said he might try to talk Pettitte out of retiring, if the lefty tells him he's finished playing. "He would have the last word, but yes," Rivera said after helping with the Yankees' annual holiday food drive at the Stadium. "Andy, to me, is one of the best left-handers out there. I would take him any time."

While some may perceive the Yankees as more desperate for Pettitte since they were spurned by Cliff Lee, Rivera said Pettitte was vital whether the Yanks had gotten Lee or not. "Andy's always been important to me. Always, have Lee or don't have Lee. Andy, I would've signed him first, if it was me."

Would it be too much of a pun or terribly cliché to say that this would be Rivera's biggest save in over a year? I think so.

Sherman and Olney: Soriano isn't on the Radar

While this isn't really surprising, it does leave me wondering what, if anything, the Yankees are going to do with the money saved in the Cliff Lee non-signing. If Pettitte returns, a fair chunk of that will go towards his contract, but I would assume that there was already something set aside there. Perhaps the new route is Mark Buehrle or Carlos Zambrano, both of which will make a fair amount of money this year and next? Or a mid-season acquisition?

What Comes Next?

Cliff Lee has signed with the Philles. Andy Pettitte is leaning towards retirement. The Royals want four top prospects for Zack Greinke. Carl Pavano and Freddy Garcia are the best bets on the free agent market. With two sizable holes in the rotation, what are the best options available for the Yankees?

01. Don't panic.

While this may be the same as filling the rotation with hopes and dreams and rainbows, it remains crucial. The laws of supply and demand dictate that the cost of pitching skyrocketed around the time Lee to the Phillies was announced. The Yankees cannot deal from their impressive prospect pool to acquire a mid-rotation option - it's simply not worth it.

02. Scour the trade market.

This sort of contradicts the first point, but not entirely so. There's no harm in asking what the White Sox want for Buehrle, or what the Astros want for Wandy Rodriguez. There are always buy-low candidates to be found. That being said, these aren't the sort of pitcher you sell the farm for - now if Felix Hernandez were available...

03. Sign a high-risk, high-reward starter.

Rich Harden. Brandon Webb. Chien-Ming Wang. Ben Sheets. Justin Duchscherer. None of these pitchers are in a position to ask for a great deal, and the Yankees have the funds to take advantage of that. Rich Harden could recapture his ace form, or struggle as he did with the Rangers - either way, it's a risk the Yankees can afford.

04. Stretch out Nova and Chamberlain.

Both have good stuff, and both would likely be in the rotation for twenty or so other teams - and many seem to forget that Chamberlain performed fairly well considering his age and experience level. With the money saved by not signing Lee, the Yankees could give Chamberlain a real shot at the rotation, then bring in Bobby Jenks or Rafael Soriano to fill the gap. They may not be able to offer them the closer's role, but they could overpay a bit.

05. Convince Pettitte to return.

This is self-explanatory, but I think it can be done. Pettitte left for Houston due to his not feeling wanted way back when. Ensure that he knows how much the Yankees need him, and I believe he will don the pinstripes for one more year.

06. Have Burnett move-in with Larry Rothschild.

Rothschild has a knack for harnessing a pitcher's stuff for the best possible results. For all of his faults, Burnett has very good stuff - this seems like a match made in heaven. The Yankees are invested in Burnett for three more years; they must attempt to maximize their return by any means necessary.

Another Trade Option: Mark Buehrle

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the White Sox are listening to offers for lefty Mark Buehrle. While Buehrle is most well-known for tossing a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009, he has been a consistent presence in the White Sox rotation for a decade. Here's a glance at his resume:

2010 - 210.1 IP, 246 H, 49 BB, 99 K, 4.28 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.69 xFIP, 45.7% GB
Career - 2271.1 IP, 2389 H, 519 BB, 1287 K, 3.85 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 46.0% GB

While Buehrle's pitch-to-contact approach does have some inherent risks, it is worth noting that he has had tremendous success while throwing most of his pitches in the incredibly hitter-friendly Cellular Field. Further, as a lefty, he wouldn't be as prone to the perils of the short porch. He's extremely durable, and he pitches deep into games to boot. He'll be 31 on Opening Day, so he should have a decent amount left in the tank, as well.

The White Sox are willing to deal Buehrle due to his pending free agency. Buehrle is owed $14 MM in 2011 and is likely to be a Type-A free agent after the season.

One-Stop Shopping in Florida

With Yankees news and rumors essentially revolving around baited breath, the fact that the team's pitching staff is rife with question marks seems to have fallen by the wayside. Fans and analysts alike are quick to point out that the Yankees could dominate with a one-two punch of Sabathia and Lee, yet fail to discuss the fact that the team must have some sort of consolation plan in effect should Lee sign elsewhere. As the offseason has progressed, most of the more palatable free agent have been snatched up - Jorge De La Rosa, Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda, Jake Westbrook, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, Hisanori Takahashi, and Kevin Correia are gone, leaving Freddy Garcia and Carl Pavano as the best of the rest. A trade, then, seems like a likely scenario.

According to the Miami Herald, the Marlins are gauging interest in twenty-eight year old Ricky Nolasco. Here's a quick look at his resume:

2010 - 157.2 IP, 169 H, 33 BB, 147 K, 4.51 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.55 xFIP
Career - 716.1 IP, 732 H, 169 BB, 638 K, 4.45 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.81 xFIP

Nolasco throws a low-90s fastball with good movement, a mid-80s slider, a mid-70s curveball, and a mid-80s splitter. His slider and curveball are his out pitches swing-and-miss pitches, but his splitter is somewhat inconsistent. Nolasco has a reputation for being somewhat unlucky (as his ERA and peripherals would suggest), but the talent is obviously there.

The Marlins are also listening to offers for reliever Leo Nunez, who is coming off of a very good season as the team's closer. With the Yankees being linked back to Kerry Wood, it appears that they may be interested in an established arm for the eighth inning - a role that Nunez could fill ably.

As I'm sure many have already assumed, the Marlins are willing to deal these two fine pitchers for financial reasons - Nolasco is likely to earn between $6 and $7 MM in arbitration, and Nunez $4 MM or so. Never a team to simply let a player walk, few expect to see the Marlins retain these two for much longer.

I'm not quite sure what sort of return the Marlins would expect for Nolasco and Nunez, I doubt that they would terribly cheap. While neither has the assurance of a long-term deal, both come with a year of team control, for which they will likely earn a team friendly salary (at least, friendly to the Yankees). Perhaps Ivan Nova, Brandon Laird, Corban Joseph, and another arm could get the ball rolling.

Larry Rothschild is the New Yankees Pitching Coach

Here's the Yankees press release, courtesy of Chad Jennings:

The New York Yankees today announced they have signed pitching coach Larry Rothschild to a three-year contract. The 2011 season will mark Rothschild’s 37th season in professional baseball as a player, coach or manager. He has served on the Major League coaching staff for two World Championship clubs – the 1990 Cincinnati Reds and 1997 Florida Marlins.

Rothschild, 56, joins the Yankees after serving as the Chicago Cubs pitching coach from 2002-10. Over the nine-year stretch, the Cubs pitching staff combined to lead the Majors in strikeouts (11,604). Cubs pitchers led the Majors in strikeouts in each of his first seven seasons as the club’s pitching coach through 2008, including a still-standing single-season Major League-record of 1,404 strikeouts in 2003.

He began his coaching career as a roving minor league pitching instructor for the Cincinnati Reds from 1986-89, before joining the Major League staff as bullpen coach from 1990-91 and then pitching coach from 1992-93. Rothschild then served as roving minor league pitching instructor for the Atlanta Braves in 1994, before taking on the role of pitching coach for the Florida Marlins from 1995-97.

Rothschild was named the first manager in Tampa Bay Devil Rays history on November 7, 1997, and remained in the position until April 18, 2001, compiling a 205-294 managerial record over the stretch. Under his guidance, the club’s winning percentage increased each of his three full seasons with the organization.

Originally signed by the Cincinnati Reds as a non-drafted free agent in 1975, Rothschild’s minor league playing career spanned 11 seasons from 1975-85 with the Cincinnati and Detroit organizations, going 66-46 with a 3.96 ERA in 387 appearances (80 starts). He made seven Major League relief outings (all with Detroit in 1981 and ’82), recording a 5.40 ERA with one save and no decisions (8.1IP, 5ER, 8H, 8BB, 1K, 1HR).

The Chicago, Ill., native graduated from Florida State University with a degree in business management.

Rothschild's "strike 'em out" approach seems to be the antithesis of more famed pitching coaches Leo Mazzone and Dave Duncan, both of whom preach to hitting the corners, pitching to contact, and keeping the ball on the ground. My knowledge of Rothschild is extremely limited, so I may be making a snap-judgment based on numbers alone - but those Cubs teams walked and struck out batters by the boatload. The Yankees certainly have the arms to fit that strategy.

Based off of the little I know about the candidates interviewed and Rothschild's history, I must say that I am a fan of this move. I'll keep my eyes open for more about the new coach's philosophy and the like.

Matchups For Yanks-Mariners

Here are the matchups for the three games against the Mariners.... With King Felix going tonight I'm hoping for two out of three. What about you?

Game 1: Tonight @ 7:05 PM | TV: YES | Radio: WCBS
RHP A.J. Burnett (9-10, 4.66) vs. RHP Felix Hernandez (8-10, 2.62)

Game 2: Tomorrow @ 1:05 PM | TV: YES | Radio: WCBS
RHP Javier Vazquez (9-9, 4.89) vs. LHP Jason Vargas (9-5, 3.15)

Game 3: Sunday @ 1:05 PM | TV: YES | Radio WCBS
LHP CC Sabathia (16-5, 3.12) vs. LHP Luke French (2-3, 4.02)

Yankees-Phillies Pitching Comparison: Part Two

So here's the second, and final part of this series.

The Bullpens- This has been really the only dissapointment so far for the Yankees. What was supposed to be a huge strength has turned out to not really be all that great after all. Phil Hughes has not been nearly as good as he was in the regular season in the eight inning. Joba Chamberlain has also failed to become the shutdown reliever that people anticipated him being. I don't have all that much faith in the two lefties either, though I have to admit they've gotten the job done so far. On the bright side, David Robertson has gotten them some huge outs and I have to think that Girardi is going to go to him in some big spots now. And of course you can't forget about Mariano Rivera. The greatest closer in baseball history has shown no signs of aging so far this October. What he does blows my mind and their isn't anybody that compares. I have to think that Hughes is going to figure things out to. If he does get going then D-Rob, Hughes, and Mariano are going to be a very potent late inning combination. The newly added Brian Bruney is an X factor, as well. He's as inconsistent as anybody in baseball and they might just be able to catch lightning in a bottle with him in this final series.

The Phillies came into the postseason with a less heralded, but similar bullpen. Some of their stats are very similar to the Yankees. However, they lacked the big names that the Yankees possessed. For example, instead of the great Mariano, they have the enigmatic Brad Lidge closing games out for them. The guy is truly one of the oddest cases in all of baseball. Sometimes he appears to be among the truly elite closers in the game. Other times he's barely suitable as a mop up man. For most of this year Phillies fans saw the bad Brad Lidge who put up and ERA over 7.00. However, he's been dominating for them in the postseason. Its an interesting situation with Lidge, as it always seems to be. Ryan Madson is the other guy that will get a good chunk of the Phillies innings. He's been pretty good for three straight years now. His 3.23 FIP and 4.20 tRA won't blow anybody away but its solid enough. After that things drop off a bit. Unless we see some early exits from Phillies pitchers or extra inning games, the only other guy worth noting is Scott Eyre who could come in for lefties.

Despite the struggles of Hughes and Chamberlain in the playoffs, I give the Yankees a solid edge here. It really boils down to one guy, Mariano Rivera. Their just aren't enough superlatives to describe him. He's just the best, period. On the other hand, if you feel like the game's over when Brad Lidge comes into a game, you just haven't been paying attention. The Yankees will get that eighth figured out and both Coke and Marte can take care of any lefties that Philly throws at them.

Prediction- Yankees in seven- This is going to be the toughest obstacle this team team has faced yet. Against all the other teams they've faced, whether it be the Red Sox, Twins, or Angels, they've had the clear edge on paper. However, against the Phillies their is no clear-cut pitching advantage. The three Lee-Sabathia games are toss-ups, the Yankees should win the two Burnett-Pedro games, and the Phillies should take both of the Pettitte-Hamels games. Ultimately, I think the Yanks bullpen will help them steal that extra game or two they need. I think we'll see another pie or two before the season is over. I'm also picking Nick Swisher for World Series MVP.

Go Yankees!

Yankees-Phillies Pitching Comparisons: Part One

This is the fourth time this year I'm making one of these pitching comparison posts. The first was way back in March over at the Chuck Knoblog and things have changed big-time since then. Its a little longer than I originally anticipated and I've decided to split it up into two posts. One for the starters and one for the bullpen and my final prediction for the Series. I'd appreciate any feedback you have on this. Hope you like it.

These two teams are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball. Particularly so in the area of pitching though. Charlie Manuel decided to make the right decision (unlike Mike Scioscia) and has announced that he's going with a three man rotation of Lee-Pedro-Hamels. Whether Pedro and Hamels should be switched is another discussion entirely but that's what we have to look forward to over the next week or so. The Yanks will counter with Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte.

Games 1, 4, and 7- Lee/Sabathia- These guys are projected to pitch up to three of the potential seven games this series and we could see some intense pitching duels when these two guys are on the hill. We all know what C.C.'s done this year. He ate up innings and was great doing it in the regular season, if slightly dissapointing. In the postseason, however, he has dominated the opposition. His first start against the Twins was great but its been overshadowed by his MVP worthy ALCS. Two straight eight inning, one run performances are impressive no matter what. When you consider the second was on short rest, its even more impressive

The reigning AL CYA winner will be going for the other side. Cliff Lee, this year, joined the long list of pitchers that made the transition from AL to NL and saw their numbers suddenly jump after his midseason trade to Philadelphia. Not that he was bad before then, his season numbers are sparkling. His FIP (3.11) is right in line with his ERA (3.22). He has a K/BB of 4.21 and his tRA of 3.97 is only a couple ticks above Sabathia's. This postseason he's also made three starts. He started things off for the Phillies with a complete game, one run performance. Most recently he threw eight shutout innings against Los Angeles in a blowout victory. Sandwhiched in between is a seven and 1/3 innings, three run performance.

Their is no clear cut favorite in these games. Both guys are legitimate aces and have few question marks about whether they can handle October baseball. I'd be shocked in they don't split these three games 2-1. My prediction is that whoever wins the majority of these matchups is going to win the World Series.

Games 2 and 5- Burnett/Martinez- For compelling storylines, it doesn't get much better than this. Forget about everything else for just a minute and you can sum these games up in a single sentence. Pedro's back in the Bronx. Pedro is going to get a chance to prove all the doubters wrong on the biggest stage on earth against his "daddy." Its been a weird year for Pedro, he sat the first half out waiting for an offer before the Phillies finally came calling. He's not nearly what he used to be, he relies much more on his control than he ever did before and he outperformed his periphereals by a mile. His FIP of 4.28 is solid and his tRA of 5.97 is dreadful. He's not the big time strikeout pitcher you want on the mound in the postseason either. However, he was fantastic in his one postseason start this year and Pedro is no stranger to the big game.

On the other hand, we have A.J. Burnett. Its his first World Series since 2003 when he basically sat on the bench for a few games. He got the huge contract in the offseason and was mostly dissapointing in the regular season. However, if you really look at the stats he turned in a typical A.J. year. He racked up the K's in huge numbers but also walked a ton and seemed to take some time to adjust to the early home run tendencies of Yankee Stadium. His ERA was a very solid 4.04 but his FIP was 4.33 and his tRA 4.74. Not what you're looking for from a guy making as much money as he is, for as long a time as he will be. The Yankees didn't bring him in for the regular season though. He's a power pitcher and figures to do better in the playoffs than most others. In the playoffs he's thrown two good games and one bad one. The bad one came most recently but it wasn't really disastrous and its hopefully just a blip on the screen.

Burnett, like Pedro, wildly outperformed his periphereals this year. At first glance, their stats may appear to be pretty comparable, as well. However, when it gets right down it, Burnett is worlds better than Pedro at this point in their careers. That difference in tRA just can't be ignored and the Yankees really should win both of these games. That said, Burnett is renowned for his inconsistency and it is possible that Pedro could pull a miracle at the end of his career. I think they split these two but the Yanks really could take both of them.

Games 3 and 6-Pettitte/Hamels-A story that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves is that this may be the last time we see Andy Pettitte pitching in the Fall Classic for the New York Yankees. We saw his periphereals dip this year and he's been talking retirement for seemingly forever. The Yankees idea of what he's worth may not be quite on the same level as Pettitte's own. I think he'll be back and I'm hoping against it, however, this could be another ugly divorce that Yankees fans really don't need. If he is back, who knows if next year's team will have what it takes to make it this far? This could be Andy's last chance to get that fifth ring and I wouldn't be surprised to see big game Andy deliver on that huge postseason reputation. His numbers this year wouldn't blow anybody away but he's been steadily above average.

This time last year, Cole Hamels was getting ready to pitch Game One of the World Series and earned his own big game reputation with a fantastic postseason. He won both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. He went 4-0 and had a 1.80 ERA overall. The fact that he's been bumped down to Game Three is a reflection of his recent performance more than anything else. The Phillies lefty hasn't come anywhere close to replicating his dazzling 2008 October this year. He's made three starts and not one of them have been "quality starts." He also was victimized by a high BABIP in the regular season. It was about 20 points higher than his career average and about 50 points higher than what it was last year. As a result, he put up the highest ERA of his career, that was a still solid 4.32. His FIP of 3.72 and his tRA of 4.51 where right in line with his career norms and in reality he is still every bit the borderline ace that he has been in years past.

I think the Yankees definitely caught a break with Manuel making Hamels his #3 instead of his #2 guy. Hamels is a top of the line pitcher who has proven he can suceed in October baseball. He can shut an offensive down and is probably the best pitcher on either team not named Sabathia, Rivera, or Lee. Pettitte is still a damn good pitcher who can come up huge in big games but he's at the tail-end of his career. I could see Andy making the magic happen one more time but the Phillies should win these two games.

Hey, Sabathia And Burnett, Blow The Angels Away.

Wow, not enough words in the English, Spanish, Chinese, and Portuguese dictionaries combined to describe how I feel about Girardi right now, but that's besides the point.

My question to you guys is, and it's one I've been wondering since the minute Howie Kendrick crossed the plate yesterday, will the Yanks have to go back to NY for Game 6? Before the series started, I thought this was going to be a 6 game series, Yankees on top. But that was before the Yanks won the first two games, and led through 6 yesterday. I've heard from friends and sport analysts that the Yankees will win tonight (Sabathia vs Kazmir), I think they will too, but lose tomorrow with Lackey squaring off against Burnett. I know Burnett looked shaky in Game 2, but we won, he kept us in the game, and if it was facing John Lackey, we would have won too.

Burnett in his two starts this postseason (and his only two PS starts ever) has looked pretty good, that one wild inning in Game 2 on the LCS his only blemish. Lackey, on the other hand, looked great in the LDS, but couldn't cope with his defense making mistakes. Hey, that's what baseball's all about, rising above the failures.

Perhaps I'm getting a little ahead of myself, maybe I should be rooting and backing up Sabathia tonight, but then again, Burnett is going to have to face Lackey no matter what. My take, we better freaking win tonight- no reason in the WORLD the Yankees shouldn't win tonight- and I think the Yanks will. But I'm gonna give Burnett some more props than some others are, like my unnamed friend, looking at Newsday today. He sees the Yankees schedule, looks at tonight's game- says, "Win." Looks at tomorrow nights game, say "We'll lose that one." I don't feel that way at all, and no Yankee fan should.

What we really need is two starts that are worth all the freaking money the Yanks are paying these guys.

Sabathia and Burnett, blow the Angels away.

Guzman In, Hinske Out For ALCS

From Anthony Rieber at Newsday:

"Joe Girardi just announced one change to the ALCS roster: Freddy Guzman is in, Eric Hinske is out.

"No change in the pitching staff. Damaso Marte stays on the roster. Brian Bruney stays in Tampa."

Read the full article here.

Well now there's no off-the-bench power hitter in a series where the Yanks could use one but that's not a bad move, Guzman's good- but here's where it sucks. Marte is still on the roster, which is more than questionable. I'm not jumping for joy with that guy on this roster.

.....

Greg here, was actually writing a post about this myself... anyway... Here's another quote from Girardi regarding the move via Chad Jennings:

“We thought we could use another speed guy in this round. We’ve had some success doing those types of things late in the game, and in a seven-game series stuff could come up late in the game. We saw the games against Minnesota were very close and sometimes you can use a couple of pinch runners. If Gardy gets a start, then you don’t have a pinch runner (without Guzman). It just frees us up to do some more things.”

I like this move. Hinske wasn't going to get any playing time anyway and now the Yanks have even more speed on the bench. This may also mean that Girardi will start Gardner in at least one of these game, which is what I was hoping for. At this point he's probably a tougher out than Melky anyway.

Yanks Three-Man Rotation Is Out Of Fear?

This from Bob Klapisch of Fox Sports:

" The upcoming ALCS figures to be an old-fashioned war between two teams that clearly respect each other. But the Yankees are already bracing for this sobering reality: unlike the Twins, the Angels don't fear them.

"To be honest, I think they look down on us," said general manager Brian Cashman. "They've had their way with us for some time, and now we have something to prove to them. It's not the other way around.

"I think the Angels feared the Red Sox, but they don't fear us. I think they're happy they're playing us."

That sentiment, shared throughout the Yankees hierarchy, is one reason the Bombers are poised to use CC Sabathia three times in this series, in Games 1, 4 and 7. It's a remarkable concession to the threat posed by the Angels; a $204 million team can't find a fourth starter it trusts with the season on the line."

You can read the full post here.

I don't think the Yankees fear the Angels, I think they respect them, being as they're a good ball club. How can the Angels possibly look down on the team with the most wins and the most powerful offense in the majors? I really think the rotation is mainly out of the fact that CC Sabathia is better than Chad Gaudin. If they were facing anyone else, I think it would still be the same way. What do you guys think?

Pitching Built For Postseason

The past couple months I've been worried about the Yankees pitching. Despite the big names at the front of the rotation and the two headed monster at the back of the bullpen, the staff has put up some unusually high FIP's. Here's how the Yankees' top four rate in handy bullet form.

• C.C. Sabathia- 3.57
• A.J. Burnett- 4.49
• Andy Pettitte- 4.08
• Joba Chamberlain- 4.74

The team ranks 16th in all of baseball in FIP and when you consider the old adage, "Pitching wins championships," its something to be a little worried about come playoff time. While they're ahead of most of the AL teams competing for a playoff spot, they still trail the Red Sox, White Sox, and a number of competitive NL teams.

What's interesting though, is the way they're doing this. FIP is a quick and easy way to measure how a pitcher performs skills that aren't reliant on the defense. Its based on walks, home runs, and strikeouts. These three stats correlate relatively well with regular season ERA, however, only one appears to correlate with playoff success. In this excerpt from Baseball Prospectus' excelent book, Baseball Between the Numbers, Nate Silver and Dayn Perry explain that strikeout rate is one of the few things that remain consistent when the calendar turns to October. High walk totals and a tendency to give up home runs can be overcome, however, failing to rack up K's is an unforgiveable sin.

Guess how the Yankees rank in the three categories:

• Strikeouts- 2nd
• Walks- 18th
• Home Runs- 24th

Note that these figures are not adjusted for the ballpark they play in.

So, in the area considered most critical for pitching success in the postseason, the Yankees are second best in baseball. They trail only the Giants who are four games out of the wild card race and are seven behind the Dodgers for the division. Kudos to Cashman for going after big power pitchers that can strike guys out, because it looks like the Yankees' pitching has what it takes to go deep into the postseason, despite the middle of the road FIP.

With the division looking like its all but locked up, I'm thinking about making posts on some of the other areas that are important to playoff success. Let me know what you think about this post and other's of the sort.