Monday, July 13, 2009

Fixing the Pitching

Coming into the year the Yankees were supposed to have one of the best five man rotations in the league. It hasn't worked out that way at all though. Sabathia has been very good and an innings eater but not truly the ace that the Yankees were looking for, Pettitte is showing his age and has been up and down, Wang was awful and as soon as he started to figure things out he got hurt, and Joba Chamberlain has gone through the struggles we should have expected from a 24 year old. Really, only Burnett has lived up to our Spring Training hopes. The good news is that the staff is littered with second half pitchers and that they've been improving as the season moves along but their are some concerns that need to be worked out. Right now this is what they have:

1) Sabathia
2) Burnett
3) Pettitte
4) Chamberlain

I think Aceves was a very temporary solution and I'd prefer to treat him as another candidate for a rotation spot, so we really don't have a fifth starter. Pettitte and Chamberlain also have insecure holds on their rotation spots but for now I think they're safe. Here are the candidates I see as realistic possibilities for the rotation:

1) Sergio Mitre- I've been beating the Mitre drum for a while now. I liked the signing back when we first heard about it in the off season and Mitre has dominated the minor leagues since getting back. In Scranton this year he has an ERA of 2.40 in 45 innings pitched. His FIP is a bit higher but 3.04 is still dominant. He's an extreme GB pitcher, however, his K/BB in AAA this year is up to 7.00. Mitre is red hot right now and just won the International League Pitcher of the Week award. I'd have to say he's the most likely candidate for the job. Even if he doesn't get the starting spot. He should at least take Tomko's spot in the 'pen.

2) Phil Hughes- So much has been written about this guy that it feels redundant to do say anything about him at all. The pros and cons about him are obvious. In the rotation this year he was solid, outside of the one awful start against Baltimore he was more than that. Since moving to the bullpen though, he's been nothing short of dominating. Phil's become the eighth inning guy and when you have a good mix working in the bullpen you don't want to shake things up to much. Hughes will be fine in the rotation next year but until then I think you just let him continue to mow down hitters in the bullpen where he can throw that mid 90's fastball without tiring.

3) Alfredo Aceves- Ace shot up through the Yankees minor league system last year all the way from being an afterthought from the Mexican league in A ball to turning in a couple, very nice, starts for the ML club late in the year. Still, he was never considered a top prospect and nobody sees him as having the potential to be more than a middle of the rotation guy. So, Girardi put him in the bullpen to start the year and since then has become a critical piece of the mix there in a role similar to Ramiro Mendoza's. As with Hughes, taking him out of the 'pen destroys the mix they've found there. If I were to move a reliever I'd move Hughes and I don't even really think that makes sense.

4) Ivan Nova- A long shot candidate. He has been seen as a disappointing prospect who only had a hot Rookie Ball season in 2006 to go on. After a very mediocre 2007 he dropped down a lot of prospect lists but still got a promotion to Tampa. The next year his conventional numbers were bad but stats like FIP and K/BB showed he was a lot better than his W/L or ERA would indicate. I assume this was why he got another promotion, to AA ball this time. Finally, this year he gained back the faith of a lot of prospect watchers. He tore through AA and recently got called up to Scranton. In his brief time in Scranton he has been excellent. The Yankees may decide they like him enough to let him see some ML time but I doubt they want to rush him anymore than they have.

I know some people think Brett Tomko and Kei Igawa are options and there's probably somebody out there beating a drum for Phil Coke, but realistically, I'd be shocked if one of those three got the call. I think the obvious choice is Mitre. He's been as dominant as you can be and they lose nothing by calling him up. Besides this he should be in his peak years at age 28 and has ML experience. Hughes and Aceves have become key cogs in the bullpen and I don't think you should mess with that unless you absolutely have to. Hughes can get the innings he needs in winter ball. If they need to replace another guy then you reassess things. Ivan Nova is intriguing as well but I think the Yankees have already rushed him a bit and I wouldn't want them to ruin his future by bringing him up to fast. Again, if another hole opens up, say Joba continues to struggle and they want to demote him, then you need to think things over again but for now, no thanks.

Thoughts?

17 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Greg - I totally agree with bringing up Mitre (and saying goodbye to Tomko). In my opinion, I don't think Joba is going to straigten himself out; he's been pampered for the past 2 years, and maybe a temporary demotion will 'humble' him into throwing strikes.

Besides, how much worse could Igawa be? (did I really say that??!!!)

Anonymous said...

Mike- sorry, so used to addressing Greg, I just noticed it was your post!

Greg Cohen said...

You know how I feel; Mitre until he proves he doesn't belong and leave the pen as is. If a player becomes available Cash should look into it. I'm interested to see how much Cleveland wants for Lee.

As for the other starters, I'm confident in CC, and Pettitte should be OK. But Joba concerns me. I don't know what the hell is going on with him.

Greg Cohen said...

By the way, nice post, Mike.

Mike N. said...

Its okay. I'll take it as a compliment. :)

I believe its still to early to tell with Joba. His season numbers aren't bad at all. He's on pace for a 4.25 ERA with 188 IP. That's far from Igawa territory and I'm not convinced Ivan Nova can pull that off either. Be patient with Joba. He's still figuring things out.

Anonymous said...

If Cash could get Street, that would free up Hughes to start.

Mike N. said...

Eh, I dislike trading prospects for relievers. Even "proven" ones. It almost always seems to backfire on the team getting the reliever. Marte, Eric Gagne, the list goes on. The best bullpens are usually built from within. Relievers are just so inconsistent.

Anonymous said...

I think Hughes needs to be 3rd starter and make pettite 4. Tell Joba he is now the 5th starter and fighting for that spot at that. Don't move him to the bullpen make him fight for something/light a fire. stop treating him like a baby. Hughes has learned alot from being in the pen and I think will take that to the mound as a starter. I know this is a whole different thread but - are the Yanks really going to resign Matsui and / or Damon-- trade them here at the break and get something for them or package them w/ minor league talent to get a legitimate third starter and keep hughes in the pen ...Go Yanks

Anonymous said...

Jarrod Washburn or Jon Garland would look awfully good in the rotation right now. We need innings eaters to save the bullpen. None of the options listed are reliable to last over the long haul (and by that I mean 2 months). Aaron Small was a miracle gift. It's not happening again.

Anonymous said...

Hughes as a starter was basically giving you the same as Chamberlain is. Keep Hughes in the bullpen.

The yanks should go out and make a trade for Erik Bedard, Brian Bannister or Jon Garland.

I dont like Jarrod Washburn he is basically the same pitcher as Andy Pettitte. Washburn benefits from pitching at Safeco.

Yankee Rebel said...

I like what was said about looking into getting someone like Cliff Lee...No one expected Joba, Wang, and Pettitte to struggle as they have, and Cashman needs to make a good trade happen to plug this hole...He has the pieces in the system...I'm thinking he needs to get a starter - not a Halladay type deal but he's gonna have to do better than Mitre...I don't know how well we'd match up with Cleveland's needs, but Cliff Lee sounds about right...

Anonymous said...

Why no faith in Mitre and co? Give them a shot before you give up prospects for mediocore starters.

Besides, what about next year when Wang's back? Hughes in the bullpen forever?

Yankee Rebel said...

Cliff Lee is mediocre..?? I'd take his numbers in my rotation any day...And Mitre's Major League track record gives me basis for having no faith...If we were talking 1 rotation spot for a few games I'm fine with Mitre, but not only do we need to fill Wang's spot, we are also dealing with Joba's continued growing pains and Pettitte's ups and downs...As for Hughes he has yet to prove himself as a Major League starter such that he should be considered a lock for the rotation next year...If Cashman can swing a trade for a proven pitcher like Lee, he has to do it...

Yankee Rebel said...

Should read as "Hughes should NOT be considered a lock for the rotation next year"

Anonymous said...

Hughes was starting to break out and was ready to have a fantastic year in the rotation. I understand the necessity in moving him to the bullpen but I personally can't wait for him to start games again and dominate.

Greg Cohen said...

Rebel, Nobody is looking for Mitre to stay in the rotation all year, just hold the spot until Wang gets back.

Mike N. said...

Its not time to panic and rush into a trade before all options are explored. Cliff Lee is a good pitcher but I'd imagine the price would be high for him. Same goes for Halladay and Peavy.

Give Mitre a shot before you judge him. He hasn't pitched since 2007 and he was pretty good that year. Its not like its Sidney Ponson or Kei Igawa we're advocating for.