These Yankees Are Not Very Clutch

Recently, many fans and writers have expressed concerns over this team, whether it's about their upcoming rough schedule, lack of a truly reliable starting staff, or a bullpen that has already seen its best days of 2012.

All valid concerns for any honest Yankees fan. But to me, the issues get really scary when you combined those things with this team's inability to hit in clutch situations. As you will soon see, the bigger the spot, the worse this team gets.

Going into play on Sunday here are the Yankees averages and rankings in various clutch stats:

• Runners on: .262 (9th AL/15th MLB)
• RISP: .247 (10th AL/17th MLB)
• RISP w/ 2 outs: .220 (9th AL/20th MLB)
• Bases Loaded: .218 (12th AL/25th MLB)
• Fangraphs clutch stat: -0.77 (10th AL/18th MLB)

(But of course, with nobody on the Yankees are doing just fine, hitting .268, good for 3rd in the AL and 4th in the majors.)

And some individual stats:

If you were wondering why this team is so horrible in one-run games this may be the main reason. You could probably throw some blame on Joe Girardi and his managing but if this team could push across some of those additional runs they leave on base at such a frequent pace you'd assume they'd be better than 13 and 15. And ff the Yankees are going to hold on to this division lead, and then do anything once the playoffs roll around, this is one area that needs to improve.

More Trade Reactions and Analysis

Fangraphs says the Yankees did not pay retail for Pineda:

Pineda is the third quality young arm to get traded this winter, following the trades that shipped Gio Gonzalez to Washington and Mat Latos to Cincinnati. Given that both pitchers come with one fewer year of team control and lack Pineda’s dominating fastball, a strong case could be made that the Yankees new starter is the most valuable asset of the three guys that were moved. However, compared to the other two packages surrendered, the Yankees didn’t really pay much of a premium to get Pineda, and one could even make an argument that they gave up less value overall than what the Reds surrendered to get Latos.

Then there's this from Mark Simon:

In obtaining right-hander Michael Pineda, the Yankees got a pitcher who looked very promising early in the season, then statistically faded at the end of 2011.

Pineda was 8-6 with a 3.03 ERA prior to the All-Star break, 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA after the All-Star break. The primary culprit was his home run rate, which went from one allowed every 11.3 innings to one every 7.3 innings afterwards.

Pineda was also considerably better in Safeco Field, a pitcher-friendly park. He was 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and .182 opponents' batting average there last season, 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA and .234 opponents' batting average on the road.

Pineda’s fastball averaged nearly 95 mph, tied for the fifth-fastest average velocity among starting pitchers in the majors. Hitters missed on 20 percent of their swings against that pitch, also the fifth-best among starters.

That helped Pineda to 173 strikeouts, the most by a pitcher in his age 22 season or younger (in other words, for pitchers who were 22 before June 30 of that season) since Kerry Wood struck out 233 hitters in 1998.

It also helped Pineda hold right-handed hitters to a .184 batting average, the best of any pitcher who faced at least 200 right-handers last season.

Pineda made nine starts against the AL East last season and he got hit pretty hard, posting a 4.73 ERA and allowing eight home runs in 53 1/3 innings.

See, it's those things in bold that scare me about this deal..... Anyway, moving on...

Here's what Kieth Law said about the other major piece to the trade coming back to the Yanks, highly touted prospect Jose Campos:

Jose Campos is the lottery ticket in the deal, and could very well turn this deal into a steal for the Yankees four or five years down the road. He's an extreme strike-thrower with an above-average fastball that will touch 95, and a slider that shows above-average but isn't consistent yet. Campos needs to work on his changeup and has yet to pitch in a full-season league, so he's several years away from the majors. He's also young enough that the injury risk is still significant, and I'd like to see him get over his front side better as he finishes his delivery. But he won't turn 20 until July, and if he were in the draft this year he'd be a first-rounder, so for the Yanks it's almost like getting an extra draft pick in the deal. For some context on what Seattle gave up, he would have been No. 5 in my 2012 organizational ranks for the Mariners.

Law also gave the slight edge in the trade to Seattle.

On the other hand, Frank Piliere called it was a narrow win for the Yankees

Jayson Stark says the deal one of the most fascinating in years, and thought both teams won in the deal.

Kevin Goldstein also likes the deal for the both teams and called Cashman a ninja sever times on Twitter tonight. He also said there is no pitcher in the Yankees system with more upside than Pineda.

Speaking of Cashman, there was this interesting quote that came via Sweeney Murti:

Marchand and Edes Talk Yanks-Sox

ESPN New York's Bombers Beat (Rivalry Edition)

Are the Yankees in trouble?

The Jorge Posada problem--which everyone is blowing completely out of proportion--is just the latest in this team's problems.

They're a home run or nothing offense, they're bullpen has been hit or miss, and their starters were what they were coming into the season--a huge question mark.

Kevin Kernan wrote today that he believes that the team is selfish and that this slump may be more than just a bumb in the road:

There has been a sense of selfishness around the Yankees for quite some, and it's not just Jorge Posada's frustration about his .165 average and the fact that manager Joe Girardi dropped him to ninth in the lineup last night.

The bottom line is that the Yankees are nothing special right now and haven't been for quite some time. These Yankees need to get it in gear in so many ways, not just because Posada has had a problem with being "disrespected." And not just because he removed himself from the lineup an hour before the 6-0 loss to the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, saying he "couldn't play" and needed time to "clear my head."

For too long the Yankees have been a privileged team. After the humiliating loss to the Royals on Thursday, I wrote that Yankees pride had left the building, along with Mystique and Aura. The Yankees lost their season-high fourth straight last night with their ace CC Sabathia on the mound.

Girardi, general manager Brian Cashman and the Yankees have not made it all that easy for the prideful Posada either. It has been an ugly situation for quite some time.

...

This is not a temporary slump. Consider the Yankees were 29-30 from Aug. 1 to the end of the regular season last season and you begin to understand that these 2011 Yankees, with a home-heavy schedule so far, are in trouble.

They have looked old, sloppy and even disinterested. And last night it really got ugly.

The Mets have gotten all the heat in this town, and deservedly so, but the Yankees are underwhelming and have shown no signs of breaking out. They are 16th in the majors in batting average with a .250 mark, and they are 12th overall in pitching with a 3.78 ERA.

They are middle of the pack millionaires in so many ways.

I guess the feelings you have towards this team right now depend a lot on what your expectations were for this team heading into the season. In my case I really wasn't too confident about this bunch, so I'm not really surprised about where they are. I am surprised at how bad the offense has been (besides those long balls), but I think that'll turn around eventually.

Still, the question is 'Are the Yankees in trouble?' and to that I think I'd have to say yes. Coming into the season, I thought Boston was the favorites to win the division, and after the Yankees allowed them to survive their terrible start I still believe that's the case. So, I guess I'd have to say yes they are in trouble. But most of that has to do with the team they've put together and not Jorge Posada being frustrated because he's hitting under the Mendoza line.

So what do you think? Answer the poll below:

Interesting Article From Verducci on Trackman

From Tom Verducci:

Trackman, a company established in 2003, is taking some old-school observational theory out of baseball and replacing it with hard data derived from 3D Doppler radar ball flight measurement. The company already has established a foothold in professional golf and is bringing its tracking technology to baseball, where Sportvision's Pitch-F/x system, another ball tracking technology, has been used widely for years.


Last year Trackman installed its ball flight measuring systems in a handful of major league and minor league parks. The data provided a trove of information that makes the radar gun, a staple of baseball since the early 1970s, seem as obsolete as the typewriter.

Too much good info in the article to copy, so check out the entire article here.

The Yankees have no shot (and other tongue-in-cheek observations)

Boston has the best roster ever constructed by any team at any time. The 1927 Yankees? Please. This assemblage of Red Sox talent will make that group look like the Little Sisters of the Poor. Red Sox Nation laughs at the 1998 Yankees, since this group of Boston's finest will clearly win 138 games in the regular season. If those two outfits, often touted as two of the greatest teams of all time aren't fit to be in the same sentence as the 2011 Red Sox, why should the Yankees even take the field against Boston this year? Consider:

-I mean, seriously, Adrian Gonzalez is so far ahead of Mark Teixeira, despite their statistical similarities and Tex's "apparent" edge on the defensive side of the ledger.

-Dustin Pedroia is the best all-around second baseman in baseball if you disregard Cano's "better" statistics in all major categories.

-Derek Jeter is so old that he remembers when Fenway Park was built, and there's no way under the yellow sun of the Earth that he'll outshine surefire Hall of Famer Marco Scutaro at his advanced age.

-Youuuuuuuuuuk versus A-Rod? That popcorn-eating pansy is soft, even though he showed up to Spring Training in the best shape that he's been in in years. Regardless of Kevin Youkilis changing positions and not being the defensive whiz that the departed Adrian Beltre was, he's still better than the over-the-hill Alex Rodriguez, who could never come close to another MVP-caliber season, although, every other year he seems to.

-That outfield isn't even worth discussing. 29-year old Carl Crawford will steal 489 bases at the Fens and have 1,636 triples. 27-year old Brett Gardner, will be lucky if he steals another 47 and gets on base 38% of the time like he did last season. Yeah, Jacoby Ellsbury is always hurt and may not ever be the same player again, with his bizarre recuperation creating a rift in the clubhouse, but Curtis Granderson's late season upswing under the tutelage of Kevin Long was an aberration, and he will go down as another in a long string of terrible Yankee acquisitions. JD Drew and Nick Swisher, I'll grant, is close. I'll still take JD's bland persona over Nick Swisher's gregarious personality any day of the week.

-Then there's the pitching. Not even a fair comparison. Boston has no question marks at all in the rotation. Of course Josh Beckett isn't on the decline of his career, and, no, those recurring health issues aren't worrisome. John Lackey can't possibly be a guy who has never pitched well at Fenway Park because last year was just his adjustment year and not a playing out of a consistent pattern. Dice K isn't an enigma that is going to walk the ballpark in half of his outings who is also getting on in age; he's deceptive and crafty. I won't even mention Cy Young and Nolan Ryan. Oops. I always make that mistake. I meant Lester and Buchholz. CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes aren't even on the same planet as those two, and it's not even worth discussing. AJ Burnett is an obvious headcase who will never return to the form he showed in 2009 and the early part of 2010. Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia are jokes. The former showed flashes of excellence in 2010, but another year of maturity and being pushed to excel by top Major League- ready pitching prospects will only hurt him. Hey Freddy, 2002 called, and they want their pitcher back. Sure, you've always pitched well against the AL East, including at Fenway, and, yes, you've looked very good this spring coming off a year that you were finally healthy and gave the White Sox 12 wins in 28 starts, but none of that matters because you're old. Even if one of the Red Sox studs should falter, they have the ageless wonder Tim Wakefield ready and wiling to go, for 28 innings per start if he has to.

-Papelbon thinks he's better than Rivera, and that's all the proof I need, although the evidence suggests otherwise. Bobby Jenks got cut by the White Sox not because of his poor diet and attitude, but because the ChiSox had another closer who cost them less money waiting in the wings. Plus Soriano is overpaid.

-Tito doesn't need a binder since he wrote the book on managing.

-Theo walks on water, so even if Cashman manages to trade for another starting pitcher, it will be too little, too late, as the Red Sox will be able to acquire somebody better without having to sacrifice Bard, Kelly, Iglesias, or Rizzo. Cashman will probably trade Montero, Betances, Banuelos, and Romine for Wandy Rodriguez.

-Bottom line, the Red Sox will have the division clinched by mid-May and the pennant by early June.

ESPN Sports Science Breaks Down Mo's Cutter

 (Hat tip to RAB)

Yankees v. Red Sox, Part Two: The Rotation

As is the case with the offensive breakdown, the first set of numbers shall be the player's 2010 production, and the numbers in parentheses represent Bill James' 2011 projections. This comparison may be worthless, as I find it highly unlikely that the Yankees do not acquire another starting pitcher - but there is some value in comparing the top-four.

Jon Lester
208 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 2.7 K/BB (204 IP, 3.53 ERA, 2.4 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP)
CC Sabathia
238 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 2.7 K/BB (236 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.1 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP)

Clay Buchholz
174 IP, 2.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.8 K/BB (193 IP, 3.54 ERA, 2.3 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP)
Phil Hughes
176 IP, 4.19 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 2.5 K/BB (177 IP, 3.56 ERA, 2.8 K/BB, 1.24 WHIP)

Josh Beckett
128 IP, 5.78 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 2.6 K/BB (168 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.2 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP)
A.J. Burnett
187 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 1.9 K/BB (191 IP, 4.01 ERA, 2.3 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP)

John Lackey
215 IP, 4.40 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 2.2 K/BB (227 IP, 3.89 ERA, 2.6 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP)
Ivan Nova
42 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.5 K/BB (80 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.6 K/BB, 1.53 WHIP)

The first three match-up fairly evenly. Sabathia and Lester are bona fide aces. Buchholz may have a small edge on Hughes, but Hughes is less experienced and a couple of years younger. Beckett and Burnett have boom or bust potential, but I'd be comfortable with either in the middle of the rotation - Beckett's history is a bit better, but Burnett's been healthier over the last three years.

From there, the Red Sox take a tremendous advantage. Lackey was a bit of a disappointment last season, but he improved dramatically as the season wore on - he's a much, much better option than Ivan Nova. I'm not quite sure who the Red Sox will utilize as their fifth starter, as Matsuzaka and Wakefield have had their issues, but that flexibility is an advantage, as well. I would take either over Mitre at this juncture.

Again, the offseason is not over. The Yankees will not enter the season with Nova and Mitre, Brackman, Phelps, or another rookie at the back of the rotation. Even so, they would need a fair upgrade to match the Red Sox.

Yankees v. Red Sox, Part One: Offense

With the recent conjecture about the Red Sox (with respect to their apparently guaranteed World Series win), I found myself wondering how the team stacks up to the Yankees. No, not the 1927 Yankees that some would say they are poised to unseat as the greatest team ever - the 2011 Yankees. This may be a futile exercise, as the offseason is far from over, but it's worth a quick comparison.

For the sake of clarity, I'll break it down by position. The first set of numbers shall be the player's 2010 production, and the numbers in parentheses represent Bill James' 2011 projections.

Catcher
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - .167/.333/.292, 80 wRC+, 0.1 WAR (.249/.323/.422, .329 wOBA)
Russell Martin - .248/.347/.332, 92 wRC+, 2.1 WAR (.266/.367/.379, .334 wOBA)

First Base
Adrian Gonzalez - .298/.393/.511, 147 wRC+, 5.3 WAR (.285/.378/.512, .387 wOBA)
Mark Teixeira - .256/.365/.481, 130 wRC+, 3.5 WAR (.282/.383/.532, .393 wOBA)

Second Base
Dustin Pedroia - .288/.367/.493, 135 wRC+, 3.3 WAR (.297/.372/.462, .367 wOBA)
Robinson Cano - .319/.381/.534, 145 wRC+, 6.4 WAR (.308/.356/.502, .371 wOBA)

Third Base
Kevin Youkilis - .307/.411/.564, 163 wRC+, 4.2 WAR (.294/.398/.507, .391 wOBA)
Alex Rodriguez - .270/.341/.506, 127 wRC+, 3.9 WAR (.284/.381/.530, .393 wOBA)

Shortstop
Jed Lowrie - .287/.381/.526, 146 wRC+, 1.8 WAR (.270/.361/.467, .363 wOBA)
Derek Jeter - .270/.340/.370, 97 wRC+, 2.5 WAR (.295/.365/.410 .344 wOBA)

Left Field
Carl Crawford - .307/.356/.495, 141 wRC+, 6.9 WAR (.300/.350/.453, .357 wOBA)
Brett Gardner - .277/.383/.379, 123 wRC+, 5.4 WAR (.275/.377/.371, .349 wOBA)

Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury - .192/.241/.244, 39 wRC+, -0.2 WAR (300/.355/.409, .349 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson - .247/.324/.468, 115 wRC+, 3.6 WAR (.264/.341/.471, .355 wOBA)

Right Field
J.D. Drew - .255/.341/.452, 114 wRC+, 2.6 WAR (.263/.370/.460, .365 wOBA)
Nick Swisher - .288/.359/.511, 136 wRC+, 4.1 WAR (.257/.359/.472, .362 wOBA)

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz - .270/.370/.529, 137 wRC+, 3.3 WAR (.261/.366/.509, .380 wOBA)
Jorge Posada - .248/.357/.454, 122 wRC+, 2.4 WAR (.260/.363/.454, .357 wOBA)

In my mind, it would be somewhat inane to call this anything other than a push. A very haphazard, inexact calculation gives the Red Sox starting line-up a projected .365 wOBA. The Yankees? A .362 wOBA.

As it stands, the Red Sox are a bit younger, and they do have Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro on the bench (an area where the Yankees remain thin), both of which weigh a bit in their favor. That being said, Jesus Montero is merely a phone call away, and the Yankees have been linked to the Brothers Hairston, either of which would greatly improve the bench.

For now, I would give the Red Sox the slightest of edges, but it remains far too early to posit an informed opinion - and it's entirely nonsensical to compare the Red Sox offense to perhaps the greatest offense of all-time. Check back tomorrow to see how the starting rotation's compare.

A Brief Follow-Up on the Yankees Gold Glove Winners

At this point in time, I'm not quite sure that many people actually give weight to any of the Major League Baseball awards. While I cannot speak for everyone, it seems to me that most have one of two reactions to awards - they use it to cement their own beliefs, or they use it to show that the voters are incompetent or uninformed (or some other less friendly term). To me, the awards aren't entirely without merit, as they provide a topic for discussion in the period between the World Series and the real kick-off of the Hot Stove season ... and they allow me to pick apart those who are much more influential than I.

The following is how the defense of Teixeira, Cano, and Jeter stands in comparison to their American League peers. I used 700 defensive innings at the position as a cut-off as a means to include players that played approximately half of the year at the given position.

Teixeira
By DRS (+/-): -1, 9th in AL
By UZR: -2.9, 8th in AL

Cano
By DRS (+/-): +7, 5th in AL
By UZR: -0.6, 5th in AL

Jeter
By DRS (+/-): -12, 13th in AL
By UZR: -0.6, -4.7, 10th in AL

Here are the best players at each position by DRS:
1B - Daric Barton, +20
2B - Orlando Hudson, +17
SS - Alexei Ramirez, +16

And by UZR:
1B - Daric Barton, 12.1
2B - Mark Ellis, 9.9
SS - Alexei Ramirez, 10.8

By these measures, I'm not terribly certain that a case can be made for any of the Yankees Gold Glove winners. While defensive metrics are not entirely reliable, I believe that they've made steady progress in recent years - at least so much so that they can be taken with more than a grain of salt, and even more so when there is such a noticeable strand of agreement between different systems.

Trouble in Big Spots

Mark Simon over at ESPN New York wrote an article on the Yankees troubles in late & close situations this season. Just a quick refresher: Late & close is defined as a situation in the 7th or later where the batting team is either tied, up one, or down by and the tying run is on deck.

Onto the article:

This season, in late-and-close situations, the Yankees are hitting .243, right in line with the American League average, .244, with a .727 OPS that rates 33 points above average.

A streak of four straight seasons in which the Yankees had a batting average (and we're talking batting average because we're looking for hits here) at least 10 points above the AL average for "late-and-close" situations is in jeopardy.

One of the reasons that the 2010 numbers looks so paltry is because of their performance last season -- a .316 batting average and a .945 OPS, with more late-inning dramatic wins than any other team.

So if you're a Yankees fan, who do you want up in these kinds of spots?

This year, the Yankees who have performed best under small samples of pressure are Marcus Thames (12-for-27 with three home runs) and Robinson Cano (.328 with four home runs).

But those guys only get so many chances. The hitters who are bringing the numbers down are two who you would figure you'd want at the plate-- Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira-- who are hitting a combined .216 in 153 at-bats, each with an OPS below league average. That's a lot of big late-game outs.

He also briefly mentions Fangraph's clutch rating system, "a measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment." Three Yankees, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Captain Clutch himself, Derek Jeter, rank in the bottom 10 of the AL.

I know neither are having amazing seasons, but you have to wonder how guys like Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon would have helped in these spots.

Derek Jeter's Range

I am well aware of the stigma attached to fielding metrics. The flaws are plentiful, the available data has several holes, and the inability to trust said metrics without two to three seasons' worth of data seems rather inane. While I am far more willing to invest in UZR and DRS and the like than I am to trust my own eyes, I'm also loath to trust the numbers until play-by-play, hit F/X, and pitch F/X data is properly incorporated. With that in mind, I would like to try to demonstrate Jeter's defensive range (or lack thereof) with readily available, easily understood data.

Based on innings, Jeter has played the equivalent of 126 games at shortstop - that's good for seventh in Major League Baseball. From here, most would point to Jeter's league-leading fielding percentage as a means to demonstrate his defensive prowess ... and that isn't entirely without merit. In my mind, Jeter is very sure-handed, and he tends to make the play when he gets to the ball. That being said ... Jeter simply doesn't get to the ball all that much (relative to other shortstops).

As of the morning of 11 September, Jeter averages 3.8 total chances per defensive game. That is, he fields an average of 3.8 balls per game. Among shortstops with at least 100 games at the position, Jeter ranks 20th in chances per game ... out of twenty. Among shortstops with at least 500 innings at the position, Jeter ranks 31st in chances per game ... out of thirty-two.

This is certainly not a perfect measure of a shortstop's range. While I can say with confidence that Yankees pitchers generate a league-average amount of groundballs and a league-average amount of balls in play, I am unsure as to whether or not the number of those balls hit to the left are on-par with league-average. Robinson Cano does lead all second baseman in total chances, so perhaps more grounders are hit to the right ... at the same time, however, Cano's advanced metrics suggest that he's a fantastic fielder.

Streaking...or so they were.

Baseball, like many games, is a game of streaks. As much as we like to view streaks as “consistency” the two are really not the same, you can win 10 but then lose 9…not exactly consistent. The Yankees right now have won 8 in a row, and 8 out of their last 10. During that time the Yankees have gained 1.5 games on the Rays, have been able to keep the division lead, and have outscored their opponents by 28 runs, 57 to 29.

CC Sabathia has been the only pitcher contributing during the streak tossing 15 innings over 2 games, striking out 14, walking 4 and holding opposing teams to a .182 average. Besides CC, it's been the offense that's led the way and that starts with his battery mate, Jorge Posada. Jorge has hit to the tune of .471, finding himself on base for some pretty important runs.

Robinson Cano has contributed to the success, hitting .313 with 1 homer and 6 RBI.

To steal a line from Yankees radio announcer John Sterling, “Your on the Mark, Teixeira!” and he certainly has been. During the 8-game win streak Mark has hit .500, has an OBP of .615 and is slugging an amazing .950, not to mention he has driven in 8 and hit 2 homers…and he’s also had 3 extra base hits.

Nick Swisher, who has been battling knee issues after fouling a ball of about a week ago, has also helped the cause. Swish has hit .333 while driving in 8 and going deep twice.

The Yankees have also had help from one Marcus Thames. Thames, perhaps a surprise over the last 8, has certainly woken up and showed the power the Yankees had hoped he still had. Thames has hit 5 homers and driven in 9 but it seems as if Thames is homer or bust as his average on this stretch is only .231 and his OBP is only .028 points higher.

The Yankees looked to continue the steak with 16-6 Phil Hughes on the mound, but things didn't work out too well. Hughes wasn't sharp, and the bats took the days off. But I'm sure the will remain plenty hot and they'll start another streak tomorrow.

The Yankees Offense is ... Offensive!

These numbers speak for themselves:

April - .271/.362/.454, .362 wOBA (1st in ML)
May - .297/.371/.451, .362 wOBA (2nd in ML)
June - .245/.333/.401, .325 wOBA (14th in ML)
July - .267/.347/.463, .355 wOBA (5th in ML)
August - .243/.303/.386, .307 wOBA (23rd in ML)

What, if anything, changed? Is this merely white noise? A fifteen game stretch of futility? Let's see if the batted ball data tells us anything:

April - 19.0% LD, 45.7% GB, 35.4% FB, .297 BABIP
May - 20.2% LD, 45.0% GB, 34.8% FB, .337 BABIP
June - 17.8% LD, 42.4% GB, 39.8% FB, .273 BABIP
July - 17.1% LD, 41.4% GB, 41.5% FB, .292 BABIP
August - 15.9% LD, 49.2% GB, 34.9% FB, .288 BABIP

The Yankees line drives and flyballs are down, and groundballs are up. That doesn't appear to have had much of an impact, though, as the team's BABIP hasn't fluctuated terribly (with the exception of a massive spike in May, coinciding with an absurd line drive rate). The team's slugging percentage may indicate that the lesser amount of line drives and flyballs has led to fewer extra base hits, but that may be a tenuous causality link.

Perhaps we can find something in the team's approach at the plate:

April - 24.1% O-Swing, 66.2% O-Contact, 84.6% Contact, 6.3% Swinging Strike
May - 26.4% O-Swing, 66.4% O-Contact, 83.1% Contact, 7.4% Swinging Strike
June - 26.5% O-Swing, 67.7% O-Contact, 83.5% Contact, 6.9% Swinging Strike
July - 25.4% O-Swing, 68.8% O-Contact, 83.5% Contact, 7.0% Swinging Strike
August - 26.9% O-Swing, 67.4% O-Contact, 81.2% Contact, 8.0% Swinging Strike

It doesn't seem like much has changed here. They're swinging at more pitches out of the zone, but not at an absurd rate - and pitch tracking isn't an exact science, so this could all be random fluctuation, to boot. The slip in contact and the increase in swinging strikes is worth noting, as the team may not be making enough contact to hit the ball hard ... but the discrepancy isn't that large, either.

In the end, most data I can find seems to indicate that this is just a poor stretch. The team's approach hasn't changed drastically, which leads me to believe that a turnaround could be just around the corner.

It's Jesus Time

I want to preface the following argument with a caveat - I'm well aware of the minimal upgrade that this would actually provide the Yankees. For the offense to function to its potential, Rodriguez and Jeter need to find their strokes, Cano and Swisher need to continue to rake, and Gardner and Granderson need to find some level of consistency - the back-up catcher is a veritable non-factor in the grand scheme of things. That being said, I do think that the following idea would do nothing but help the Yankees - and however minimal that impact may be, it certainly will not hurt.

Francisco Cervelli is the sort of player that seems to rise above criticism - as a back-up catcher that hustles, there really isn't much to nitpick ... frankly put, most anything out of that position is gravy. However, Cervelli really hasn't given the Yankees much of anything. Since May 15, Cervelli is batting .197/.273/.243. Granted, that's a small sample size (177 PA) - but it's a much better sample to work with than his first 62 PA, in which he did incredibly well. Further, despite his defensive reputation, Cervelli doesn't appear to be much behind the plate - with -5 TZ, 2 passed balls, 22 wild pitches, and only 16% caught stealing, he isn't really an upgrade over Posada (-5, 4, 19, and 19%, respectively). In short, he's been terrible.

Again, it's difficult to ask for much out of the team's back-up catcher - but with Posada needing to sit two or three games per week, the Yankees situation is different from most other teams. Considering that (and Cervelli's ineptitude), I believe it's time to give Jesus Montero a shot.

Despite a horrific start to his Triple-A season, Montero is now batting a solid .271/.347/.460 on the season at 20. He batted .283/.324/.505 in June and .342/.441/.632 in July. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his power has returned. While scouts and analysts remain split on his glovework, I doubt that he could be much worse than the current Yankees duo - and his bat is likely to surpass Cervelli's instantly.

The largest issue is whether or not this would stunt Montero's development, which is certainly a risky proposition. I, for one, am against rushing prospects, preferring to see a full year at Double-A and Triple-A (barring a Heywardian ascent). Montero has had his growing pains, but I think that he'd benefit a great deal from a call-up. He wouldn't be rotting on the bench (a la Buster Posey last season), as Posada needs frequent breathers. On those days that Montero did sit, he could work with Joe Girardi and Tony Pena, two very good defensive catchers, on his glovework. Working with pitchers that attempt to hold runners alone could help, for what it's worth.

In the end, the actual value that this would provide the team may very well be negligible. However, it certainly wouldn't hurt, and it would give the Yankees a far better idea of Montero's value for now and the future.

ZiPS Rest of Season Projections

Fangraphs is, in my mind, the very best website for baseball statistics - in fact, the vast majority of the statistics that I utilize in my posts are taken from there. In addition to utilizing their own numbers and formulas, Fangraphs also uses data from Pitch F/X, John Dewan, Sean Smith, Tom Tango, and several other sources. In short, it's a great one-stop source for most anything you could ever want to know about a player's production.

One of my personal favorite resources on Fangraphs is the ZiPS in-season projections. Here, Fangraphs utilizes the ZiPS projection system to project a player's production over the remaining portion of the season, while also combining that with their to-date production. While it's not an exact science, it's something that I believe is worth noting - at the very least, it's a better resource than the 'on-pace for' nonsense that we see on ESPN and the like. Let's take a look at how the Yankees ideal line-up, starting rotation, and key bullpen pieces stack up for the last couple of months.

Jorge Posada - .262/.350/.430, .345 wOBA, 4 HR
Mark Teixeira - .269/.365/.490, .375 wOBA, 11 HR
Robinson Cano - .307/.349/.505, .368 wOBA, 8 HR
Alex Rodriguez - .278/.368/.511, .384 wOBA, 10 HR
Derek Jeter - .291/.359/.404, .343 wOBA, 4 HR
Brett Gardner - .270/.355/.372, .338 wOBA, 2 HR, 13 SB
Curtis Granderson - .254/.330/.455, .347 wOBA, 8 HR
Nick Swisher - .265/.361/.497, .374 wOBA, 10 HR
Lance Berkman - .262/.381/.470, .376 wOBA, 8 HR

CC Sabathia - 83 IP, 3.69 ERA, 7.59 K/9, 2.49 BB/9
A.J. Burnett - 69 IP, 4.70 ERA, 7.70 K/9, 3.91 BB/9
Andy Pettitte - 65 IP, 4.43 ERA, 6.51 K/9, 3.18 BB/9
Javy Vazquez - 69 IP, 4.04 ERA, 8.22 K/9, 2.48 BB/9
Phil Hughes - 42 IP, 4.50 ERA, 8.14 K/9, 3.00 BB/9

Mariano Rivera - 21 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.43 K/9, 1.71 BB/9
Joba Chamberlain - 44 IP, 4.09 ERA, 8.59 K/9, 3.68 BB/9
David Robertson - 23 IP, 4.30 ERA, 10.57 K/9, 4.70 BB/9
Kerry Wood - 16 IP, 4.50 ERA, 9.56 K/9, 3.94 BB/9

It's worth noting that these projections are based on production on the year to-date, production over the past couple of seasons, and the pre-season ZiPS projections. That Hughes and Chamberlain changed roles impacts the numbers, for example - it's likely that Hughes could toss more innings and Chamberlain will toss less.

Can Alex Rodriguez Catch Barry Bonds?

As Alex Rodriguez continues his pursuit toward the magical 600 home run mark, it got me thinking about how much longer it would take to get to 763 home runs. I understand that I'm coming across as getting way ahead of myself. However, the Yankees just finished taking 3 of 4 from the Indians and that will be addressed elsewhere. With that being said, let us begin our quest!

In order to get a good grasp on this topic, I will examine Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds... regarded as the greatest home run hitters in baseball history.

George Herman Babe Ruth, at the age of 35, had 565 career homers. He would go on to average 114 games played in the next 5 seasons while clipping 149 homers (30 homers per year). He hit homers at a ridiculous rate of 1 per 12.66 ABs. The Sultan of Swat was truly the Home Run King of his day.

Hank Aaron, at the age of 35, stood at 554 homeruns. Over the next 7 seasons of his career, he hit another 201 homers to bring his grand total to 755. He averaged 125 games played per season in those 7 seasons and 29 homers per season. So... after the age of 35, Hank Aaron hit a home run about once every 4.3 games (1 homer every 14.6 ABs).

Barry Bonds, at the age of 35, stood at 494 homers. Bonds is a special case because he did a devastating amount of damage after turning 35 in 2000. Every knows his unbelievable 73 homer season came in 2001 so he launched himself into discussion of possibly catching Hank very quickly. Barry also only played 14 games in 2005 after suffering a knee injury that sidelined him virtually the entire season. So, Bonds averaged 120 games played over the final 7 seasons of his career. During that time period, he hit 268 homers (yes, 38 per 120 game season). Bonds hit homers at an alarming rate of 1 per 8.9 ABs (that's absolutely FILTHY).

There are multiple similarities between all three of these giants.

1) They all played at least until the age of 40.

2) Although they all played a different amount of games in their final 5-7 seasons, everyone averaged between 29-38 homers per year after the age of 35.

3) They were all consistent home run hitters.

So, where does all of this leave A-Rod? Well, let's say (for argument's sake) that A-Rod finishes off the 2010 campaign with 16 more homers to get to 615. To catch Bonds, I figure A-Rod is going to have to play at least 5 more seasons. So, 763 - 615 = 148 more homers during those 5 years.

If Alex plays 5 more seasons, he will need to average 30 homers per season.

If Alex plays 6 more seasons, he will need to average 24.6 (25) homers per season.

If Alex plays 7 more seasons, he will need to average 21 homers per season.

Now, is this all possible? Sure it is. Is it probable? Now that is the question. Barring no big injuries, Alex has a legitimate shot at becoming the All Time Home Run King. However, his hip is nothing to joke about. This season, it already seems like he isn't playing the same as he did last season. He's had some trouble fielding grounders at times and he can't quite turn as quickly on that hip as he used to be able to. Also, keep in mind that Ruth, Aaron and Bonds averaged 114, 125 and 120 games played per season in their final 5, 7 and 7 seasons. Alex has played a majority of this season and could struggle to surmount 30 homers.

Do I think Alex will catch Bonds? I don't see it. His hip worries me a bit and I'm not sure he has 5-7 seasons left in him that will be nearly as productive as his past. The key to becoming the Home Run King is having longevity and consistency from the age of 20 through one's early 40s. I think the steroids will end up breaking down his body. That combined with the hip injury are not good ingredients to longevity.

I wish Alex the best of luck in his pursuit of Bonds as long as he helps the Yankees win more championships along the way.

Jeter Not Changing Things Based On Bad Results

From Chad Jennings:

“Sometimes you have to make minor adjustments,” Girardi said. “Sometimes you can watch video for hours until you find exactly what you’re looking for. He’s made some minor adjustments, and he’s swinging the bat better, and that’s a great sign.”

Of course, when Jeter was asked to elaborate on the adjustments, he turned it into a joke.

“Trying to bloop it over the pitcher’s head and into center field,” he said.

...

“Not only when you think you’re going bad,” he said. “I don’t necessarily change things based on results.”

It all depends on what is actually hurting Jeter this year. Is he just struggling and maybe swinging at a few too many bad pitches, or is he beginning his inevitable decline?

If it's the former, staying with the approach that got him here is the thing to do. No need to change things because of a slump, even if it's a two month long slump. If it's the latter, then it certainly might be time for a change. We have all heard many times how Don Mattingly added to his production at the end of his career by adding a leg kick (thanks to Paul O'Neill).

As far as stats goes, his line drive percentage is at an all-time low at 17.7%, but that's just .2 points lower than the 17.9% he put up in 2007 when he hit .300. Onto a more negative sign, his ground ball % is way up to a career-high 66.8 and his fly ball % is at a career-low at 15.5%.

Honestly, and I'm not trying to be a blindly optimistic Yankees fan, but I do think a lot of this has to do with the number of bad pitches he's swinging at. Until this year he never had an O-Swing% higher than 23.7% (2007). That's the number of pitches outside the zone he's swinging at. This year, his O-Swing% is at 28.6, by far the highest of his career. This leads to bad counts on the ball he misses, and weakly hit grounders when he does make contact.

Jeter is now 5 for his last 14 (.357) so let's see what he does from here.

What do you think, is Jeter just having a bad year or is this a sign that he's no longer the hitter he once was?

New York Yankees: 1st Half Review

Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s safe to say that we’ve seen a tremendous 1^st half of baseball in 2010. Can anybody else believe that it’s already the All-Star Break in Anaheim? The season seems to be flying by, but it certainly hasn’t disappointed yet. Without further ado, let’s take some time to reflect on the 1^st half of baseball and reminisce the top games and plays.

The Yankees, going into the All-Star Break, have the best record in Major League Baseball at 56-32. They remain 1.5 games up on the Tampa Bay Rays and 4.5 games up on the Boston Red Sox. This time last year, sitting at 51-37, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by 3 games in the AL East. Clearly, the Yanks have had a better 1st half of the season this year. In fact, the last time the Yankees posted such a great record before the All-Star Break was back in 2004 when their record was 55-31 at the break. (Last time Yanks had a record of at least 25 games above .500 was in 1998).

Let’s put together statistics compiled over the last15 years to compare past teams to our 2010 version.

Please note: The 1^st and 2^nd halves of seasons are not necessarily 81 games each. The 1^st half has fluctuated between 81 games (in 1998) and 93 games (in 2003). For the sake of keeping the statistics consistent, I will use the first 81 games of each season.

Year	Wins	Losses	Win %	Runs For	Runs Against	Run Diff.
1996	49	32	60.5%	423	385	+38
1997	46	35	56.7%	436	358	+78
1998	61	20	75.3%	484	327	+157
1999	50	31	61.7%	431	371	+60
2000	44	37	54.3%	437	396	+39
2001	48	33	58.6%	421	348	+73
2002	50	31	61.7%	452	344	+108
2003	51	30	63.0%	457	353	+104
2004	51	30	63.0%	447	400	+47
2005	42	39	51.9%	438	410	+28
2006	46	35	56.8%	447	392	+55
2007	40	41	48.2%	428	370	+58
2008	44	37	54.3%	384	361	+23
2009	48	33	59.3%	427	351	+78
2010	50	31	61.7%	436	340	+96
AVERAGE	48	33	58.6%	437	367	+70

While the runs scored statistic is relatively average, the pitching has been exceptional. Only one team (1998) had better pitching through the first 81 games of the season and they’re regarded as one of the greatest teams to ever play the game.

Eight Yankee players have made the All-Star roster this year, the most since 2004. The double-play tandem of Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano will be starting in Anaheim. Alex Rodriguez was selected as backup 3^rd baseman (by Joe Girardi) and Nick Swisher was voted in by the fans via 2010 Final Vote (beating out Kevin Youkilis in the closest voting result ever). The pitchers include CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera (Rivera and Sabathia will not participate, though).

Yankee First Half Awards:

Most Valuable Player: Robinson Cano. He has truly blossomed into an amazing baseball player. He currently has 16 homers, 57 RBI, .337 BA and .390 OBP (on-pace for career highs in all categories). With only 1 error committed in the field, he is definitely earning his $9 million paycheck.

Cy Young: Andy Pettitte. The man has “turned back the clock” (I will award credit to Jedi Master A-Rod for that) and has been much more than fans had expected. Although Sabathia’s numbers have been just as good, and in some cases better, Pettitte has been the most consistent starter. His 2.70 ERA and record of 11-2 are outstanding. The Yankees record when Pettitte starts is 14-3 (in two of those losses, Pettitte went 7 innings allowing only 2 earned runs). He’s 38, but pitching like it’s 1997 again. Hopefully, this surge will last into the 2^nd half and postseason where it always does.

Most Surprising Player: Brett Gardner. No surprises here. Last season, we all learned just how valuable Brett could be with his speed. The only problem, he slapped at the ball when at the plate and had a mediocre batting average and on-base percentage. This year, he’s been deadly. He’s 7^th in the league in WAR (3.4) and 4^th in the league in stolen bases (25). His .309 batting average and .392 on-base percentage are excellent for a mainly bottom of the order hitter. He can beat out plenty of infield balls for hits and has become a remarkable fielder in left and center.

The Carl Pavano Award: Nick Johnson. Here’s a new award that recognizes Yankee players that are being paid to be injured. Of course, we all knew Nick Johnson from his early days with the Yankees from 2001-2003. However, Cashman brought him back this year and he has been nowhere in sight. He suffered a wrist injury back in May and has been out ever since. He played in 24 games, tallying up an unprecedented .167 average with 2 homers and 8 RBI. His OBP was great at .388, but he’s gone for a long while more. See you in September! ... or will we?

The “We Can’t Replicate You” Award: Mariano Rivera. Words can’t describe how truly incredible this man is. He’s 40 years old and having, arguably, his best season ever. He is 20 for 22 in save opportunities, blowing one on July 4^th against Toronto and one back on May 16^th against the Minnesota Twins (let’s not talk about that game). He had a Houdini-like escape from a bases-loaded jam in Arizona with 0 out to secure the victory and has been great all season long. His ERA is 1.05 with a 0.64 WHIP (think about how ridiculous that is).

Pinstripe Alley Clutch Player of the 1^st Half: Alex Rodriguez. What a turn around A-Rod has had in his career, eh? After an MVP-like postseason last year in which he hit 4 homeruns that gave the Yankees momentum, he has hit plenty more this year. A dramatic 2-run homer off Papelbon to tie the game 9-9 in the 9^th inning back on May 17^th, three grand slams (May 14, May 31, July 6) that gave the Yankees triumphant leads, A 2-run 8^th inning dinger to give the Bombers a 4-2 lead against Seattle, and his 2-run single against Seattle on July 8 to give the Yanks a 3-1 lead. Time after time, he has come up with huge hits late in games.

Top 5 Games of the 1^st Half:

5) Wednesday, April 7 – Yankees 3 Red Sox 1: In what turned out to be a classic pitching duel between Andy Pettitte and John Lackey, the newest Yankee made the biggest difference. Jonathan Papelbon came out for his second inning in the 10th to face Curtis Granderson, and the “Grandy-man” hit a bomb to right off the atrocious closer. It was Granderson’s 2^nd homer in 3 days up in Bahston. Needless to say, Rivera shut the door.

4) Sunday, July 4 – Yankees 7 Blue Jays 6: The fireworks certainly weren’t forgotten on this special 80^th birthday of George Steinbrenner. The Yankees had earned a 3-0 lead before Hughes gave it up to Dewayne Wise by surrendering a 3-run homer to give Toronto a lead. Adam Lind went yard to make it 5-3, and then Brett Gardner benefited from a misplayed ball by Wise for his 2^nd homer in two days and his 2^nd inside-the-park-homerun of his career, making the game 5-5. Teixeira’s RBI double in the 7^th should have put away Toronto because Rivera hadn’t blown a save in July since 2004. Dewayne Wise singled to tie the game. Bottom 10, Marcus Thames steps up to the plate for the 1^st time since getting off the DL and lines an RBI single to leftcenter. He wanted pie. AGAIN.

3) Wednesday, June 23 – Yankees 6 Diamondbacks 5: This game started off terribly as Dontrelle Willis couldn’t threw a strike if his life depended on it. The Yankees helped him out with 4 base-running gaffs in the first 2 innings. The game was back and forth… Arod’s sac-fly in the 9^th tied the game and Curtis Granderson hit a go-ahead solo shot in the 10^th. The real story was the courageous effort of Mariano Rivera. He loaded the bases with 0 outs, got Chris Young to pop out, Adam Laroche to pop out, and he struck out Mark Reynolds to end the game. HOUDINI.

2) Monday, May 17 – Yankees 11 Red Sox 9: Yankees jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the 1^st inning off of Matsuzaka. A huge comeback by Boston and back and forth scoring saw multiple lead changes. Eventually Boston went up 9-7 going into the 9^th. Gardner doubled to lead off the inning and Alex Rodriguez crushed the first pitch he saw from Jonathan Papelbon to tie the game. Cano made out, Francisco Cervelli was plunked by a pitch and Marcus Thames smashed a 2-run walkoff homerun. It was the first time Papelbon had ever surrendered 2 homers in one game.

1) Sunday, June 28 – Yankees 8 Dodgers 6: A game most Yankee fans turned off after Joba let up a run in the 8^th… it’s a shame they had to miss it. The Yankees overcame a 6-2 deficit in the top of the 9^th inning to tie thanks to Chad Huffman and Colin Curtis. Robinson Cano hits a game-winning 2-run homer in the top of the 10^th and Rivera finishes off Torre and the Dodgers.

Breakdown of records against other teams:

Tampa Bay – 2-3

Boston – 5-3

Baltimore – 10-2

Toronto – 3-3

Total Against AL East: 20-11

Detroit – 1-3

Chicago – 2-1

Minnesota – 4-2

Cleveland – 3-1

Kansas City – 0-0

Total Against AL Central: 10-7

Texas – 3-0

LA Angels – 3-3

Oakland – 5-1

Seattle – 4-3

Total Against AL West: 15-7

Arizona – 2-1

Houston – 3-0

LA Dodgers – 2-1

NY Mets – 3-3

Philadelphia – 1-2

Total Inter-league Record: 11-7

Miscellaneous Notes:

1) Yankee Home Record: 28-13

2) Yankee Away Record: 28-19

3) Yankee starting pitchers have combined for 48 wins out of the total 56

4) The Yankees have three pitchers with at least 11 wins (Sabathia, Hughes, Pettitte)

5) Alex Rodriguez heads into the All-Star Break with 597 career homeruns.

Bob Sheppard 1910-2010: Before ending this article, I would like to throw in my share of comments on the sudden passing of Bob Sheppard. He was 99 years old and definitely lived a life at the PA system in Yankee Stadium that others dream of living. It can’t be explained how truly missed he will be. It’s a shame that some Yankee fans will grow up having never attended a game in which he was the voice of the realm. He had, what Reggie Jackson called, the “Voice of God” and was perhaps the most recognizable announcer in the history of sports. He’s been gone from Yankee Stadium for 3 years, but he will never be gone from our hearts. Bob Sheppard, rest in peace.

That about wraps up the 1^st half of baseball. Check out the Future’s Game tonight and make sure you root for Nick Swisher during the Homerun Derby on Monday night! The All Star Game should be a good one this year on Tuesday, let’s hope the AL wins for homefield advantage.