All Questions Answered - Volume II

What do you make of the Yankees lack of transactions this winter compared to the Red Sox many deals?

To be honest, I feel that it was based on need more so than anything else. The Red Sox had sizable holes to fill with the departures of Martinez and Beltre (their two best players in 2010). They also had to look forward to Drew and Cameron reaching free agency at the end of 2011. While such circumstances may not necessarily call for the acquisitions of the best of the best available ... such is life with the big market teams. I suspect the Yankees would have been all-in on Crawford had Gardner not performed so ably in 2010, for what it's worth.

For the Yankees, the holes, though substantial, were limited almost exclusively to the rotation. I don't see what else Cashman could have done with Lee, so it's difficult for me to be angry in the slightest. I would have liked to see more of a contingency plan beyond praying for Andy Pettitte to return, and I think that's where the Red Sox aggressive approach hurt the most - the Yankees were content to wait, and I don't think that's a good strategy when there are legitimate needs. That being said, I don't think Garza or Marcum were real possibilities (as Anthopoulos and Friedman would have jacked-up their prices), and Greinke would have required a veritable gutting of the system. The free agent market for pitching wasn't too hot, and most of the better options (Lilly, Kuroda, Westbrook - I'm already stretching it) signed pretty quickly.

In all of the Albert Pujols rumors I have heard no talk of the Royals making a play for him. Is it really that crazy?

As much as Pujols makes sense for the Royals - hometown guy, stealing the Cardinals' thunder, making a real splash - I just don't see that happening. The Royals have been all about 'The Process' over the past couple of seasons, and a great deal of their talent is in the 1B/DH area (Hosmer, Moustakas, Butler, Ka'aihue). I suppose they could always go all-in, sign Pujols, deal some of that enviable farm depth for studs ... but that would be a dramatical reversal for Moore and the Royals.

How many sure things do the Yankees have in the rotation?

One - CC Sabathia. That's it.

Burnett has very good stuff, but his career has been defined by inconsistency. At 34, it wouldn't be that surprising if the bad outweighs the good going forward - though, I do have faith in Rothschild, whose specialty seems to be pitchers of Burnett's ilk.

Hughes was great in April and May ... but that's about it. In 319.2 IP as a starter, Hughes has a 4.76 ERA, 4.50 FIP, and a 4.48 xFIP - that's below average, and there's really no way around that. His stellar ten-start stretch to begin 2011 certainly demonstrated that he could be a fine starter ... but that was followed by 112.2 IP with a 5.11 ERA and a 5.18 FIP (indicating that there wasn't too much bad luck there). I believe in his potential, but he's far from a sure thing.

I don't really have the want, desire, or stomach to address Nova and Garcia. Suffice it to say that I believe they could both put up 150 IP of league-averagish production - but that would be their ceiling. Is that terrible? No. Is that enough? I don't think so.

Any thoughts on how Girardi should handle the bullpen against a lefty-heavy lineup?

I think the benefit of having Feliciano (eventually) and Logan is that Girardi won't have to worry about having a LOOGY struggle against a righty. Oftentimes, you'll see a team like the Twins have Mauer and Morneau separated by Cuddyer - someone that murders left-handed pitching. With two lefites, Girardi has the luxury of utilizing Robertson or Chamberlain against that tough righty, without having to necessarily worry about a powerful lefty. While a ton of pitching changes can be bothersome, I'm all for leveraging the team's relievers to the best of their abilities.

The Yanks obviously don't really view Nunez as a future shortstop if he's sitting on the bench in the majors instead of getting at-bats in AAA, right?

While I won't claim that I'm an expert on this sort of thing, and I'm very open to corrections, I cannot recall a shortstop sitting on the bench then transitioning to a full-time player. Andrus was handed the job in Texas. Escobar was handed the job in Milwaukee. Castro was handed the job in Chicago. Ramirez was handed the job in the other Chicago. Jeter was handed the job in New York way back when. Some in Boston claim that Lowrie - who has apprenticed as a bench player - is the shortstop of the future in Fenway ... but their best prospect is a shortstop, and Scutaro doesn't appear to be going anywhere.

What does all this rambling mean? In short ... I agree. If the Yankees were serious about Nunez having the potential to take over for Jeter in a year or three, I think it would behoove them to let him get regular reps in Triple-A - sitting on the bench won't improve his glovework or plate discipline.

Which of the Yankees bigger prospects (Banny, Brackman, Betances, Montero, Romine, etc.) do you think is most ready to contribute?

That's sort of difficult to answer.

Montero tore apart Triple-A pitching from June forward, but his slow start is something that could be endemic - he certainly didn't look ready in Spring Training, though that's not a terribly strong indicator or anything. I'd much rather see him get regular at-bats and squats in Triple-A, and I think the Yankees share that mindset. Gun to my head, though - I think his bat's as ready as it's going to be.

Of the pitchers, I think Brackman is the closest (despite being generally viewed as the weakest of the B's). He could probably toss around 180 IP this season, he looked quite good in Double-A last season in a fairly large sample, and he's kicking of this season with Scranton. He's also the oldest of the three, and the furthest removed from injury - Banuelos' wasn't baseball-related, but he still went under the knife and missed a decent chunk of 2010. Brackman also generates a great deal of groundballs, which is a skill that tends to follow pitchers, and portends at least some success in the Majors. Conversely, I'd say Betances is the least ready.

All Questions Answered - Submission Thread

Nearly four months later, it appears that I haven't quite created a SIH tradition - yet.

The blame lies entirely on my keyboard, as I chose the worst possible time to create a new series of posts. With the free agent frenzy hitting a lull in mid-December and the Yankees a veritable non-factor for the first time in what seems like forever, there simply was not enough for me to muse upon ... nor enough intrigue for others to seek whatever semblance of wisdom or insight that I may have. With Spring Training wrapping up next week and the regular season beginning in ten short days, it seems like the perfect time to revisit and rekindle.

You may post your questions here in the comment section, shoot me an e-mail (domenic.lanza@gmail.com), or tweet me (@DomenicLanza). No question is too foolish, and I shall do my best to provide an answer to each and every question asked - just keep it semi-on-topic.

All Questions Answered - Volume I

What would you give up for Justin Upton?

Several sources have reported that the Diamondback are either shopping Justin Upton, or very willing to listen to offers. According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are one of the many teams interested in the 23-year old outfielder. Before delving into any trade ideas, let's take a quick look at Upton's resume.

2007 - .221/.283/.364, .277 wOBA, 2 HR, 2 SB, 152 PA (age: 19)
2008 - .250/.353/.463, .347 wOBA, 15 HR, 1 SB, 417 PA (age: 20)
2009 - .300/.366/.532, .388 wOBA, 26 HR, 20 SB, 588 PA (age: 21)
2010 - .273/.356/.442, .349 wOBA, 17 HR, 18 SB, 571 PA (age: 22)

Upton is regarded as a very good defensive right-fielder, and defensive metrics back that up (9.1 UZR/150, 7 DRS, 20 TZ in 2010). Several scouts, in fact, believe that he has the range and smarts to play center-field, to boot. Upton is owed $49.5 million over the next five seasons.

To me, Upton is a superstar in the making. His 2010 was somewhat disconcerting, particularly with a three-percent up-tick in strikeouts - but that must be taken in stride, as Upton spent the majority of the season as a 22-year old. In other words, most players his age are in Double-A or Triple-A, as opposed to spending the past three years in the Majors. Upton also battled nagging injuries throughout the season, for what it's worth. He's a rare talent, and he's fairly proven at the Major League level, to boot.

Now, to answer the question, I would give up a fair amount for Upton. Brett Gardner, who is four years older than Upton, would have to be in the package as a ready-made replacement for the Diamondbacks. Ivan Nova and Joba Chamberlain could provide the Diamondbacks with two potential starters (or solid relievers) for a consistently pitching-starved team. One of David Phelps, Graham Stoneburner, and Adam Warren serves as a potential mid-rotation starter. Austin Romine remains a solid prospect, and could help to back-up the injury-maligned and lefty-embattled Miguel Montero. And Brandon Laird has a decent bit of power potential to be slotted in at any of the four corners.

In the end, I don't really think that that would get it done. The Diamondbacks simply have too much leverage in this situation, and any team would love to add Upton to its roster. A realistic package from the Yankees would probably include Gardner, Jesus Montero, and Manny Banuelos, and perhaps even more. As great as I believe Upton will be, I would not be willing to give up so many important organizational pieces to upgrade an area that is already a Major League strength.

Are there any conceivable replacements for Jeter in 2011? 2012? And so forth.

This year's free agent class is limited to stop-gaps. Orlando Cabrera, Christian Guzman, and Edgar Renteria represent the 'best' of the group, and I shudder to think of them starting at shortstop for the Yankees.

The 2012 free agent shortstop group has two interesting names - Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes. Their names, however, fail to paint a proper picture. Rollins will be 33 next offseason and, in addition to seeing his production decline for three consecutive years, has missed time in two of the last three years. No thanks. Jose Reyes is younger and remains in the prime of his career, but his list of injuries has grown fairly extensive, as well. Should he hit the market following a healthy and effective 2011, a bidding war would likely ensue. I wouldn't be against Reyes, but that doesn't help the Yankees in 2011.

There are a few interesting names being bandied about on the hot stove as potential trade candidates - Jason Bartlett, Stephen Drew, J.J. Hardy, and Marco Scutaro. I assume that neither Bartlett or Scutaro are likely candidates, as I cannot see the Rays or Red Sox making a deal with the Yankees ... nor do either particularly interest me. Hardy is a very good defender, but he doesn't offer much with the bat. He has shown some potential with the bat, but I don't think he'll ever be more than a league-average hitter. That's certainly not a bad combination, but I don't see him as the sort of player the Yankees would pursue.

Stephen Drew is interesting. He's a roughly-average defensive shortstop, he has a nice power-speed combination to go along with a solid approach at the plate, and he's a left-handed pull hitter. Should the Yankees actually go forward and seek to replace Jeter (which I don't see happening), Drew would be my preference.

From within the organization, the Yankees have Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez as essentially finished products. Pena strikes me as the all-glove, no-hit type with little room for growth. Nunez is somewhat intriguing, as he's grown progressively more patient at the plate, shown good base-running instincts, and, at least according to Baseball America, developed into one of the finest defensive shortstops in the minors. I could get behind Nunez receiving a fair shot. Cito Culver has some potential, but he's three or four years away.

Are there any free agent pitchers that you like, besides Lee? Any available for trade?

All of the safer bets have already been signed - Ted Lilly, Jon Garland, Jake Westbrook, and Hiroki Kuroda are off the market. Carl Pavano is still available, and he has been a fine pitcher over the past two seasons - but I wouldn't be terribly excited to repeat that failed experiment.

Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, and Brandon Webb represent the high-risk, high-reward arms on the market. I would certainly endorse giving any of the three a shot, but I wouldn't be too thrilled if the Yankees counted on any to contribute to the rotation for the entire year. I would probably rank the three Webb, Bedard, Sheets, for what it's worth.

As for trades, I've seen the following names mentioned: Jeremy Guthrie, John Danks, Ricky Nolasco, Wandy Rodriguez, Zack Greinke, and Chad Billingsley. Guthrie is a solid, back of the rotation type - he doesn't strike many batters out, nor does he keep the ball on the ground, but he has had success in the AL East. Danks sort of reminds me of Andy Pettitte, and his groundball numbers have trended upwards each year. He's a fine pitcher, and he could be a solid third starter ... his asking price would probably be fairly high, though. Nolasco is an underachiever in the vein of Javy Vazquez, having underperformed his fine peripherals in two consecutive seasons. The Marlins seem to enjoy being on the receiving end of poor deals, so perhaps he could be had for pennies on the dollar - his flyball rates leave a bit to be desired. Rodriguez is a very interesting name. He's had very good peripherals and results over the last three seasons, and the Astros have been notorious for receiving the short end of the stick in trades. My only hang-ups here are his age (31) and injury history. I mention Greinke and Billingsley only because their names have been thrown around a bit - I don't see either being moved this offseason, nor do I see the Yankees giving up the pieces that would be needed for either.

From that group, I could get behind a deal for either Danks or Rodriguez, with Danks being my preference. In a deal, I would probably look to deal from the group of Ivan Nova, Joba Chamberlain, Brandon Laird, and Austin Romine, and I'd prefer to limit it to that. I'm not sure if that would land either lefty, however.

What can we reasonably expect out of Jesus Montero in 2011?

Let's take a look at a couple of projections.

James - .285/.348/.519, .376 wOBA, 21 HR, 39 BB, 75 K, 442 PA
CAIRO - .261/.326/.446, .337 wOBA, 18 HR, 41 BB, 85 K, 467 PA

As much as I like Bill James' projection, I do find it to be a bit optimistic, as it essentially has Montero replicating his Triple-A numbers with the Yankees. SG's CAIRO projection appears to be fairly pragmatic, yet palatable at the same time. I could certainly see Montero struggling in the early stages of the season, improving slowly yet surely, and ending up with something quite similar to that.

However, it may be most reasonable to temper expectations severely. About two years ago, fans, scouts, and analysts were touting the merits of uber-prospect Matt Wieters, expecting the young catcher to set the world on fire. Wieters destroyed pitching at every level of the minors, and made his debut in May of 2009. That year, Wieters hit a solid .288/.340/.412 with a .330 wOBA and 9 home runs in 385 plate appearances. While that may not be stellar, it's a fine rookie season nonetheless. Paul Konerko, the player to whom Montero's baseline is most often compared, batted .214/.275/.326 with a .267 wOBA and 7 home runs in his first 247 plate appearances.

It is from there, however, that these two comps differentiate. In Wieters' second season, he showed a bit more plate discipline, yet made weaker contact and saw his bottom line plummet. Konerko, on the other hand, batted .294/.352/.511 with a .372 wOBA and 24 home runs, which is essentially his career norm. Of course, there are plenty of examples of prospect performing admirably, such as Jason Heyward and Buster Posey - but that's the exception, not the rule.

In the end, I'm really not quite sure what to expect. I do think that the CAIRO projection is reasonable, but I don't think that that anything less should be considered a disappointment.

I am really looking forward to making this a regular feature of Sliding Into Home. It's a great way for us to connect with our excellent readers. Don't hesitate to send me questions at any time, on any topic - domenic.lanza@gmail.com.

A New Tradition - All Questions Answered

The growth and maturation of Sliding Into Home over the past years or so has been staggering. Traffic has gradually grown (Thank you!), a greater breadth of topics have been tackled, breaking news time frames have been more competitive, and users have become more and more engaged with the authors. The latter is the most important trend of all - interacting with those frequenting this blog provides us with terrific insight into what everyone is looking for, and how we can better serve our community. With that in mind, I would like to offer something that many of my favorite blogs offer - an all questions answered thread, or a mailbag (as RAB refers to it).

While the premise is mostly self-explanatory, I'll go into a bit of detail. Anyone can ask any number of questions, about almost any Major League Baseball topic, and I shall answer said questions to the best of my ability - please be civil, that's all I ask. This will allow me to tackle those issues that are simmering on the hot stove without having to post dozens of shorter tidbits. Essentially, myself and the SIH community will be collaborating on a mega-post.

Questions may be posted in the comments section or e-mailed to myself (domenic.lanza@gmail.com) or Greg (slidingintohome@gmail.com). I do not have an ideal number to shoot for, but I am hopeful that this will generate a fair amount of feedback. Look for the post sometime on Sunday.

Ask away!