A-Rod: Everyone is just out to get me

From the NY Daily News:

Alex Rodriguez is taking his wildest swing yet in his fight against steroid allegations: The Yankees and MLB are conspiring to push him out of the game.

Sources say the embattled Yankee star is “scared” that bigger forces are at work to try to discredit him and sink his career. Holed up in Miami, Rodriguez has been huddling with an army of lawyers and PR people as the performance-enhancing drug scandal enveloping him intensifies.

“He’s scared, because he thinks this is so unbelievably false, and he’s wondering who could be behind this,” said a source, referring to last week’s Miami New Times report linking A-Rod to an alleged Miami-area performance-enhancing drug scandal. “He thinks something could be going on larger than anyone might think.”

The source added that Rodriguez is wondering if the Yankees or even Major League Baseball are behind the latest controversy.

A-Rod’s concerns intensified as agents from MLB’s Department of Investigations met in Miami Monday with editors of Miami New Times, a weekly newspaper that posted hand-written records and files last Tuesday linking Rodriguez and several other players to Anthony Bosch, a self-described “biochemist” who is being investigated by baseball and federal authorities for possibly providing performance-enhancing drugs to the players.

To be quite honest, I don't really buy this story. One reason, the NY Post of all papers, had a much different take on the situation including quotes from named sources, mainly Brian Cashman:

The Yankees have been cagey about Alex Rodriguez’s spring-training schedule, and they intend to stay that way.

Mindful of the heat generated by the recent Miami New Times story alleging massive illegal performance-enhancing drug usage by Rodriguez, the Yankees will give the public no advance warning of their rehabilitating third baseman’s whereabouts.

“I’m not going to say to try and keep away the extra, whatever you want to call it, paparazzi, whatever it is, the stakeout, wherever he is working out,” general manager Brian Cashman said last night at the Hard Rock Café in Manhattan, where the Yankees held a fundraiser for WCBS-AM radio producer-engineer Carlos Silva, who is battling cancer. “That’s the only reason I’m not going to say where he is going to be on a given day.”

So if the Yankees are trying to protect him, how would they be trying to derail his career at the same time? Either way, this story is a complete clusterf*ck that nobody needed this close to spring training. Also, if you haven't heard, Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli and Jesus Montero were also linked to this PED clinic.

In other, completely unrelated news, did you know you can buy Yankees tickets from Sliding Into Home? Well you can. Check out the banner on the right for the best deals on tickets to all spring training and regular season games.

Yankees Call Up Six

With the rosters expanding today, the Yankees have called up six minor leaguers. Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Adam Warren, Cory Wade, and Justin Thomas are all with the team today. To make room for Dickerson on the 40-man, Ramiro Pena was designated for assignment.

I assume there will be more moves as the minor league season comes to a close.

Yanks Trade Kontos to Giants for Chris Stewart

In 183 at-bats with the Giants last season, the 29-year-old (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewach01.shtml) hit .204/.283/.309 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. He also threw out 39% of runners trying to steal. Cervelli threw out just 14% in each of the last two years.

Cervelli To The DL

Francisco Cervelli has been placed on the 15-day DL, though Andrew Marchand reports that it's just "book keeping".

[Billy] Eppler, who is on the trip here in Seattle, said the Yankees did just so there is record of the time Cervelli is missing in case it comes up in any type of transaction or contract discussions later.

Harper: Cervelli Bringing Intesity Back To The Rivalry

From John Harper:

For years now this Yankees-Red Sox rivalry has needed a new villain, since the likes of Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling left the stage and Alex Rodriguez stopped irritating teammates and opponents alike quite so much.

So who knew it would be Francisco Cervelli?

Actually, it's not terribly surprising, as emotional and animated as Cervelli can be. It's just that he's an afterthought on most nights as Russell Martin's backup. But Tuesday night he injected a little juice into the proceedings, getting under John Lackey's skin by clapping hard in front of Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia as he reached home plate on a home-run trot in the fifth inning.

Sure enough, Lackey drilled him in the back in his next at-bat, in the seventh inning, and Cervelli knew it was intentional, pointing his bat toward the mound and telling the pitcher he didn't care for it.

Afterward, everyone from Joe Girardi to CC Sabathia to Cervelli himself said they thought Lackey's pitch was intentional. Sabathia, who was screaming at the Red Sox as the benches cleared but didn't brawl, may have been the most upset.

"I didn't like it," he said.

If this rivalry needs the intensity boost, baseball needs it more. In a season that seems headed for the quietest September ever, with almost no division-race or wild-card drama to be found anywhere, the promise of a high-octane October featuring the Yankees and Red Sox might help keep people interested.

If only Bud Selig could instantly install the new format that seems sure to be adapted in the next year or two, featuring a second wild-card team and thus a one- or three-game playoff between the two wild-card teams. That way both the Yankees and Red Sox would be desperate to win the division.

Even so, it's starting to feel as if these teams are tired of seeing one another this season. You could sense the intensity from the first inning Tuesday night, when Sabathia hit Jacoby Ellsbury as what appeared to be retaliation for Lackey coming inside and hitting Curtis Granderson - even if the umpire ruled the pitch hit Granderson's bat.

While I'm totally against adding more playoff teams, I do think this rivalry needed a boost. The Yankees also need to win some more games and prove they can actually beat this team. It may not matter in the regular season since both teams are virtual locks for the playoffs, but it will matter if these two teams meet in October.

Cervelli Homers, Pisses Off Boston

Look at Lackey's face after Cervelli crossed the plate and clapped his hands--it's kind of hilarious. This obviously led to the HBP in the 7th, but he would later score on a pretty cheap run in the inning so thanks for the freebie.

More importantly, the Yankees won the game thanks to some timely hitting, a solid 10 strikeout performance by CC, and some solid relief work from the pen. And with the Bronx Bummers (AJ and Hughes) going in the final two games of the series, this was one the Yanks had to have.

Is Russell Martin Headed For The DL?

From Brian Costello:

A few hours before last night's 1-0 loss to the Indians, Russell Martin sounded optimistic about his aching back.

"It will be fine," the Yankees catcher said. "I can tell. It's something I'll play through."

His tone must have changed because 90 minutes later, the Yankees announced Martin was scratched from the lineup with back stiffness, with Francisco Cervelli taking his place as the starting catcher.

...the Yankees have to be getting concerned with the back problem Martin can't shake, and a trip to the disabled list has to be considered. The 28-year-old had missed four consecutive games with the back problem before returning to the lineup Sunday. He underwent an MRI exam on Thursday that showed no problems.

Costello argues that a few weeks might be the best thing for Martin, who has been struggling. Since May 1st, he's hitting .183/.309/.301 and he's just 2 for his last 31. Long believes the injury is to blame.

"He's been so beat up," Long said. "It's really unfair to judge. He basically busted up his toe twice. He's basically swinging without his legs. Anytime you do that, you get into some funks

If he does land on the DL, it'll be interesting to see what the Yankees do.

Personally I'd like to see Jesus Montero get a shot. Even if he's here for just a few weeks, the experience will help him and he could be a bolt of energy that this team will need to overcome these injuries and catch the red-hot Red Sox.

If not Montero you're looking at Francisco Cervelli and his .191 (and dropping) batting average getting most, if not all of the innings behind the plate. Besides the lack of hitting he's already racked up 5 throwing errors behind the plate-in just 16 games-tying him for 2nd most in all of baseball.

With Cervelli starting everyday, I assume the Yanks might let Posada get a game or two back there as well, but at this point I'm kinda scared to make him start catching again. With the luck this team has had lately it looks like another leg injury in the making.

Anyway, we don't even know if he's going to go on the DL so this could all be pointless. But if he does, what would you like to see the Yankees do?

EDIT: Thank you to SIH reader Liam for reminding me about Gustavo Molina. He is also an option.

Mark Newman on the Back-Up Catcher Dilemma

A tip of the hat to NoMaas:

With Cervelli out with a broken foot for who knows how long, everybody's wondering if the Yankees will start the season with The Next Big Thing, Jesus Montero, as backup catcher. So, we went straight to the source and asked minor league head honcho and friend of NoMaas, Mark Newman. Here's what he told us on Tuesday:

"No decision has been made. At-bats are an issue for Montero, but so are innings caught. It depends on how much he plays when discussing the effect on his development."

I share Newman's sentiment. It seems unlikely that Montero would gain much of anything from garnering inconsistent at-bats and defensive reps, particularly when he has a fair bit of work to do behind the plate. I suppose he could benefit from working regularly with Joe Girardi, Tony Pena, and Jorge Posada, but I'm uncertain that any amount of one-on-one work can replace in-game experience.

Should Martin's health become an issue, however, I would hope to see Montero wearing the tools of ignorance for the Yankees ahead of both Cervelli and Posada.

Cervelli Out 4 Weeks as a Door Opens For Montero

From Bryan Hoch:

Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli has a fracture in his left foot and will be out a minimum of four weeks, team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad told manager Joe Girardi on Monday.

With Cervelli now on crutches, Jesus Montero has to be the leading candidate to land the backup catcher spot.

Hoch later tweeted that "Girardi says the plan is for Posada to stay as DH" and that the Girardi has "no plans" to have Jorge catch at all this month.

Hoch also reports that Austin Romine is in the mix.

Yanks Still Unsure About Cervelli's Status

If you don't know by now, yesterday, Cervelli fouled a ball off his foot and was forced to leave the game. He later had CT scan, which was negative, but his MRI was inconclusive. I don't suspect this will be anything long term, but if it is it would probably mean your backup catcher will be Jesus Montero. However, in my opinion, he should be the backup anyway. 

Daily News: Cervelli Worked with Cano this Offseason in Hopes of Winning Job

As per Anthony McCarron, and with a a tip of the hat to the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog:

In an offseason jammed with news about Yankee catchers - Jorge Posada shifting to designated hitter, the addition of Russell Martin, the outsized potential of Jesus Montero and Austin Romine - Francisco Cervelli was the forgotten backstop.

But Cervelli, last year's backup who is renowned for his effervescent spirit, is OK with that. He says his goal is to eventually be a starter, and the best way for him to have a job in the majors this season is to "concentrate on myself.

"I can't control what the general manager's decision is or the manager's decision," Cervelli said Wednesday after his first workout at the Yanks' minor-league complex. "I've just got to do my job on the field and they decide what to do on the field. I came here fresh and I just want to play baseball like I play, have fun and give everything to my team.

"If they have plans with them, that's fine. They know what I can do."

He added, "I don't like to be comfortable, I always want to learn, learn, learn. I want to be one day a starting catcher or (win) a Gold Glove, something like a Molina brother. That's my dream."

For Cervelli, who turns 25 next month, the big news of his offseason is that he spent most of it training with pal Robinson Cano in the Dominican Republic. Cervelli arrived in the Dominican on Dec. 1 and lived in a hotel near Cano's house so the two could meet for daily workouts.

It was a plan Cano hatched during the season last year, Cervelli said. "He's trying to help me," Cervelli said. "He's got a good disposition to teach...good friend, good teacher."

Asked what he learned, Cervelli, a .271 hitter last year, laughed and said, "I tried to learn a little bit how you can hit the ball." Seriously, though, Cervelli said Cano helped him learn how to better use his hips while swinging. And Cano's fitness routine helped him shed fat.

"He knows I like to work," Cervelli said. "I had fun there, too. Everything was unbelievable, good people, his family, his staff.

[snip]

Cervelli also appreciated watching Cano work. "He's one of the guys who never stops," Cervelli said. "He taught me how to work better."

And, Cervelli said, "He's always smiling, man."

So is Cervelli, and he'll keep the grin if he can keep his job.

While this is certainly a standard piece of offseason filler, it is a bit more valuable than your average "best shape of my life" byte. It's good to see that Cervelli's on the field exuberance is matched by his motivations off the field, and it's even better to see that Cano is willing to take on such a role - particularly considering the past rumors of his laziness and lack of enthusiasm.

As it stands, Cervelli is a fine back-up catcher - and RAB demonstrated that he may be an excellent back-up, as well as an average starter for many teams. If working with Cano adds a bit more 'oomph' to Cervelli's bat, then the Yankees wealth of catching talent will me all the more enviable.

Yankees One of Several Teams Interested in Martin

As per Jon Heyman:

#yankees, #redsox, #jays, #mets thought interested in russell martin. lobby talk: he's still catcher, not multi-purpose guy.

This isn't terribly new news, as it was reported last week that the Yankees nearly dealt Francisco Cervelli to the Dodgers for Russell Martin. I have yet to find anything in regards to why the trade fell through, but the teams went so far as to exchange medical reports - it stands to reason that there may have been a hang-up there. Perhaps the Yankees even felt that they could save some money by signing Martin following his being non-tendered, as he is coming off of a down year and a fairly nasty injury, as he would likely have garnered a salary around $5 or $6 million through arbitration.

The Yankees interest in Martin is indicative of a couple of issues. First and foremost, it signals the end of Jorge Posada's tenure as the Yankees full-time (or even "full-time") catcher. Despite the expressed sentiments of Cashman, I doubt that the Yankees are ready to hand the full-time gig to Jesus Montero (which I suppose is an issue in and of itself), and having an established, solid catcher around would certainly help ease the transition. This leads to the other issue - what does this mean for Cervelli? In short, the Yankees don't feel comfortable with his being a Plan B, or even Plan C. Cervelli's defense is simply not as strong as it needs to be to make up for his punchless bat, and the team doesn't appear to be willing to wager another ninety-plus games on some intangible upside.

In my mind, Martin would be a smart pick-up. Posada does not have the legs to catch more than forty or so games, and I don't think Montero's quite ready to squat for a full Major League season, either. That being said, I'm not sure that Martin is in the position to settle for a time share with either.

Montero Ready To Make Leap in 2011?

Last week, Brian Cashman mentioned that people within the organization have been telling him that they feel Jesus Montero is ready for the big leagues. Here's more on the subject from Mark Feinsand:

The consensus among the Yankees' high command is that Montero who turns 21 on Nov. 28 - is ready to assume the starting catcher's job, according to a source with knowledge of the team's thinking.

...

Montero's defense has been scrutinized, but team brass believes he made enough strides this season to assume the bulk of the workload in 2011.

He will likely be given the chance to win the starting job during spring training, turning over a position that has belonged to Jorge Posada since 1998. The front office believes that Montero is already a better defensive catcher than the 39-year-old Posada, who has struggled behind the plate - and to stay healthy.

If Montero comes through, Posada would likely be shifted to the designated hitter spot, with some backup catching duties mixed in.

The plan would be for Montero to catch roughly 100 games, said a source, with Posada and Francisco Cervelli sharing the rest of the duties. Austin Romine, the Yank's other blue-chip catching prospect, would start at Triple-A, potentially taking over Cervelli's spot by midseason if he shows he is ready.

Many industry experts believe that the Yankees have tried to inflate Montero's value in order to use him in a trade for a starting pitcher if they're unable to sign Lee, but as the source noted, "There really aren't any pitchers of that caliber out there to trade for."

This should be a very interesting spring training.

It's Jesus Time

I want to preface the following argument with a caveat - I'm well aware of the minimal upgrade that this would actually provide the Yankees. For the offense to function to its potential, Rodriguez and Jeter need to find their strokes, Cano and Swisher need to continue to rake, and Gardner and Granderson need to find some level of consistency - the back-up catcher is a veritable non-factor in the grand scheme of things. That being said, I do think that the following idea would do nothing but help the Yankees - and however minimal that impact may be, it certainly will not hurt.

Francisco Cervelli is the sort of player that seems to rise above criticism - as a back-up catcher that hustles, there really isn't much to nitpick ... frankly put, most anything out of that position is gravy. However, Cervelli really hasn't given the Yankees much of anything. Since May 15, Cervelli is batting .197/.273/.243. Granted, that's a small sample size (177 PA) - but it's a much better sample to work with than his first 62 PA, in which he did incredibly well. Further, despite his defensive reputation, Cervelli doesn't appear to be much behind the plate - with -5 TZ, 2 passed balls, 22 wild pitches, and only 16% caught stealing, he isn't really an upgrade over Posada (-5, 4, 19, and 19%, respectively). In short, he's been terrible.

Again, it's difficult to ask for much out of the team's back-up catcher - but with Posada needing to sit two or three games per week, the Yankees situation is different from most other teams. Considering that (and Cervelli's ineptitude), I believe it's time to give Jesus Montero a shot.

Despite a horrific start to his Triple-A season, Montero is now batting a solid .271/.347/.460 on the season at 20. He batted .283/.324/.505 in June and .342/.441/.632 in July. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his power has returned. While scouts and analysts remain split on his glovework, I doubt that he could be much worse than the current Yankees duo - and his bat is likely to surpass Cervelli's instantly.

The largest issue is whether or not this would stunt Montero's development, which is certainly a risky proposition. I, for one, am against rushing prospects, preferring to see a full year at Double-A and Triple-A (barring a Heywardian ascent). Montero has had his growing pains, but I think that he'd benefit a great deal from a call-up. He wouldn't be rotting on the bench (a la Buster Posey last season), as Posada needs frequent breathers. On those days that Montero did sit, he could work with Joe Girardi and Tony Pena, two very good defensive catchers, on his glovework. Working with pitchers that attempt to hold runners alone could help, for what it's worth.

In the end, the actual value that this would provide the team may very well be negligible. However, it certainly wouldn't hurt, and it would give the Yankees a far better idea of Montero's value for now and the future.

Many Teams Interested In Cervelli

From Ken Rosenthal:

The Yankees, in theory, could trade Francisco Cervelli this off-season to clear a spot for Double-A catcher Austin Romine, but one club official says the team would prefer to keep its inventory. Cervelli is a frequent trade target of rival clubs — the Tigers wanted him in the Curtis Granderson deal last winter.

As we all know the Yankees are loaded with talented catchers in the minors, so trading Cervelli wouldn't do much to hurt this team's future. At least I don't think it would. But at the same time I love the way he plays the game, and I only think he will get better.
So, unless the Yankees were going to get a piece that would greatly improve their chances at no. 28 in return for a package that includes Cervelli, I'd really rather they held on to him.

Thoughts?

It's Moeller

Much to the disappointment of many, the Yankees called up Chad Moeller, and not Jesus Montero or Austin Romine to replace Jorge Posada and back up Francisco Cervelli. To make room on the 40-man roster Nick Johnson was placed on the 60-day DL.

While a call up of one of the two top prospects would have been the most exciting for Yankees fans, it's probably not the right move. Girardi has already said that Cervelli was going to play most of the time, so you can't call up Montero or Romine and have them ride the pine.

Also, Montero is 20, has yet to prove he's ready defensively, and is just hitting .230 with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Romine, 21, is playing well for Double-A Trenton, but I don't think the Yankees are comfortable having him jump two levels.

Chad Moeller has plenty of major league experience, fills the role of backup very nicely, and it allows guys like Romine and Montero to continue their development in the minors. As much as Yankees fans probably don't want to see it, Moeller makes the most sense.

Rosenthal: Nick Johnson Will Have Surgery

This tweet comes from Ken Rosenthal:

Sources: Yankees' Nick Johnson to undergo surgery on right wrist Tuesday. Likely out until July.

Here's a little more from Ben Shpigel:

“This is not a quick fix,” Manager Joe Girardi said. “This is going to be a while.”

Johnson said he would have the surgery “probably tomorrow.” He has been told that he will need four to six weeks of rest before he can swing a bat again. Johnson elected to have surgery after an injection of anti-inflammatory medication did not help, and after he reported no improvement from the exercises and treatment he was doing with the training staff.

“I’d rather not keep waiting and take care of it,” Johnson said.

...

“We’ve done all the treatments we can do,” said Johnson...

This is obviously bad news for the Yankees, who now are without a DH for the next 6-8 weeks. Juan Miranda is probably not the long-term answer, although I'm sure the Yankees will see what they can get from him over the next few weeks when they face right-handed pitching. Expect to see a lot of Marcus Thames against lefties, and Randy Winn will also get some more at-bats while Johnson is out.

Like I've said a few times over the last few days, I'd like to see the Yankees give Jorge Posada a few more games at DH while Johnson is out. Mainly because it will give Francisco Cervelli more playing time. So that's another option.

Who's Going to Catch On?

The recent rash of injuries is not the way we wanted the Yankees to finish the spring. Included on the list of injuries are the catchers who are both dealing with minor issues. Francisco Cervelli has a Grade 1 hamstring strain, and as a precaution the Yanks will hold him out of the remaining spring training games. Jorge Posada has been complaining of a stiff neck and has also been held out of the lineup. Both players feel better and say they will be ready on Sunday when the season opens. However, having a 38 year old catcher and another who has had several concussions over the last few years, does raise an issue about the organization's depth at catcher. Let’s look at some catching options if it becomes necessary:

The 2 catchers in Triple-A are Jesus Montero and Mike Rivera. No way Montero gets a shot this early. The plan for the 20 year old, top prospect is to spend most of this season working on his catching skills and maturing as a hitter. That leaves 33 year old Mike Rivera who has a career .244 batting average (.228 last year and .250 in 18 at bats this spring). Obviously he is not going to scare anyone with his hitting but at least he has some major league experience. Rivera has played in 181 major league games with the Tigers, Padres and most recently the Brewers. However, he has also been having some hamstring problems and had not played since March 20. He did play yesterday and had a hit in 2 at bats before being replaced by Austin Romine. It's expected that the Yankees will release Rivera, so he may be out of the discussion before it even starts.

P.J. Pilittere is another option with at least some Triple-A experience (28 games last year). He has yet to play a game in the majors and wasn't projected to make the SWB Yankee roster. Now, instead of being released or sent to Trenton, could he be a DL move or two away from catching in the Bronx? Scary.

Last year Cervelli spent some time in Triple-A but basically jumped from Double-A to the majors. Could Austin Romine also follow that path to the majors? Defensively, he could be ahead of all the other minor league prospects at the position. He has a cannon for an arm and yesterday threw out the speedy Joey Gathright with a great throw. He is currently slated to play at Trenton this year and saw a decent amount of time with the Yankees this spring getting into 10 games. Romine, 21, was selected by the Yankees in the second round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft out of El Toro High School in California. He batted .276 with 61 runs, 13 home runs and 72 RBI in 118 games with Single-A Tampa in 2009. After that season he was named the second-best prospect in the Yankees organization by Baseball America. He is also 86 on the list of BA's top 100 major league prospects.

Probably a more realistic option is scouring the waiver wire for more experienced catchers. Heard yesterday that our old friend Chad Moeller asked for, and received his release from the Orioles. He was the Orioles backup to Matt Weiters last year, but lost the job to Craig Tatum this spring. He told the Orioles that he wanted to explore other options rather than go to Triple-A. The Yankees struck quickly and signed Moeller to a minor league deal today. There was also some question as to whether Jose Molina would make it as the backup for the Blue Jays. He was in a tight battle with Raul Chavez. On Wednesday the Jays announced he won the job for now, mainly because of contractual issues. It’s possible Molina could be available at some point this season.

The strength of the Yankee farm system is clearly in the catching position. Top prospects Montero, Romine, Gary Sanchez, J.R. Murphy and Kyle Higashioka will provide the Yankees a bright future. Until then depth at catcher will be a concern all year if the team doesn’t have some major league ready talent to draw on. But we know the Yanks will always find their man.

Some Injury Updates

Chad Jennings just posted some updated on injured Yankees Nick Johnson, Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli. Here's a summary:

• Nick Johnson said he was “Stiff and sore right now,” and that he wasn't "going to do anything tomorrow," just "get some treatments and see how it feels.” When asked about Opening Night he said he would be in the lineup, but Joe Girardi felt a little differently, saying, "I’m somewhat concerned about Sunday.” So we'll have to wait and see.

• Alfredo Aceves had a successful day in minor league game. He threw a painless eight-pitch scoreless inning, and also threw off flat ground. “Everything was good. I didn’t feel nothing in my back," said Aceves. Girardi will see how Ace feels tomorrow, but I think he'll be ready to go on Sunday.

• Damaso Marte said he feels "maybe two or three days” will be all the rest he needs for his back.

• According to Jorge Posada, his neck feels "much better."

• Francisco Cervelli had the same thing to say about his mildly strained hamstring. Cervelli, who caught in the bullpen and took BP, also said he could have played today.

So Johnson, Posada, Cervelli, and Aceves all seem like they'll be fine for Sunday night, while Marte might miss a game or two. Not too bad, it could have been much worse.

The Yankees will hit, but can they catch the ball?

Defense is becoming an increasingly important part of the game. The Mariners and the Red Sox have bet their post-season prospects on taking away runs as opposed to trying to out-slug the other team. Gone are the days when a team will pay and play a slugger that kills them in the field (unless you are Adam Dunn or Jason Bay – both of whom are so bad on defense that they negate almost all of their offensive value, but that’s a whole other post).

Defensive metrics are imperfect – and we probably aren’t aware of the best metrics because teams keep their proprietary methods for evaluating defense private. Errors and fielding percentage are just plain dumb. They are determined by a non-baseball player keeping score in the booth. UZR, plus/minus, defensive efficiency and range factor have begun to creep into baseball lexicon, but they are still, for the most part, ignored.

The Yankees have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball and the offense is going to score at least 900 runs – those are givens. I wanted to take a look at the Yankees defensive alignment to see how it might impact the team. I’ve tried to break down each position and then reach a conclusion on team defense.

C – Jorge Posada/Fransico Cervelli. It is very difficult to assess catchers defensive prowess – most of my opinion here is pure speculation. While Girardi has said that Posada will catch between 100 – 120 games, entering his age 38 season, it is difficult to determine how many games Posada will see behind the plate (only 5 catchers have caught more than 100 games in a season at 38). Posada’s defense has always been suspect, but in his prime, his bat has hidden his defensive deficiencies. I love Jorge, really I do! However, if you objectively look at his defense (C is the most difficult positions to put a defensive value on) – CS%, CERA (not the best stat), WP’s & PB’s – an objective observer will conclude that Posada is at best average, but more likely towards the bottom of the league in terms of defensive catchers. Cervelli is almost impossible to get a read on because of the small sample size of innings caught at the Major League level. As much as I hate to use anecdotal evidence, Cervelli seems to have the confidence of all the pitchers (CC Sabathia said that if Cervelli wasn’t awarded a full WS Share he would pay it out of his pocket) and he is highly regarded among scouts. Overall, I predict that the Yankees catchers will be, at best league average, but more likely will be slightly below average.

1B – Mark Teixeira. Teixeira’s defense at 1B is a paradox wrapped in an enigma. If you watched every defensive inning in 2009 you probably think Tex is a magic man at 1B, if you look at his UZR/150 you would say he is just average. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. 1B and C are the two position that UZR is less than optimal at determining true defensive value – it over values C’s and undervalues 1B’s. If you look at Tex’s last three years of UZR/150 (you really need at least three years of UZR data to get a true read on a player's defense) his defense has been worth a grand total of 0.0 runs – 2007: -5.2, 2008: 9.3, 2009: -4.1. I didn’t see every inning of Tex’s defense last year, but I saw in excess of 90% of them. My eyes tell me that he was worth more than -4.1 runs at 1B.

His range to his left or right isn’t fantastic, but he is a vacuum cleaner for bad balls throw his way by his colleagues. Tex’s defensive value at 1B isn’t derived by snagging potential doubles hit down the 1B line. His real value comes from the confidence he instills among the other infielders. Tex makes the other infielders better – the papers are filled with quotes from Cano, Jeter and Rodriguez about how they know if they can get the ball in the general direction of 1B that Tex will scoop it – UZR isn’t able to measure that. Despite what UZR says, I say Tex is among the elite defensive 1B’s in baseball. I hate the kind of judgments that are based on what you see as opposed to what you can statistically measure – but I’m making an exception for Tex.

2B – Robinson Cano. Cano may have the best arm of any 2B in the AL and he makes a lot of flashy plays on slowly balls hit into the hole to his left (towards 1B) but overall, Cano’s defense leaves something to be desired. Cano’s last three years of UZR/150 have him worth -0.9 runs. However, UZR/150 paints a different picture if you look at Cano’s year by year UZR/150 rating for each year of his career – 2005: -21.1, 2006: -3.1, 2007: 11.3, 2008: -7.0, 2009: -5.2. To help put those numbers in perspective, in 2009 only two 2B’s (Alberto Callaspo, -7.5 & Brian Roberts, -8.7) in the AL were worse than Cano and in 2008 only one 2B (Alexei Ramirez, -10.6) in the AL was worse. 2007 appears to be the outlier – Cano is more likely to be somewhere closer to his 08/09 numbers in 2010 which would put him at or near the bottom of AL second basemen.

SS – Derek Jeter. The issue of Derek Jeter’s defense has been debated, rehashed and beaten like a dead horse for several years – I don’t want to debate it all again here, so I will be brief. Despite what I wrote about Tex, I generally agree with Billy Beane who once said something to the effect of “I might be a better GM if I never saw a game in person.” When it comes to defense, our eyes can often deceive us – especially in the case of Derek Jeter. Jeter always seems to be in the right place at the right time (a big playoff game), he makes the jump throw look easy and he dives into stands, but no matter how much you or I love Derek Jeter, it is difficult to conclude anything other than that his defense is average (if we are being generous – and don’t start with the Gold Gloves, he didn’t deserve any of them).

A new offseason training regimen supposedly improved Jeter’s first step speed which translated into a better UZR. Since 2002, Jeter has only posted a positive UZR/150 once: 8.4 in 2009 (5^th among AL shortstops). Can he do that again in 2010? I don’t know. It is very rare for a player to improve his defense as he moves into his mid 30’s. Jeter’s track record certainly doesn’t bode well and the Captain is a year older. As long as Jeter doesn’t fall back to his atrociously bad defensive years of 2005 (UZR/150 -12.6: means he cost the team at least 1 win) and 2007 (UZR/150 -16.7: means he cost the team 1.5 wins) the Yankees can live with his defense. If I were a betting man, I would bet that his UZR and overall defense drops back to costing the team 5 or 6 runs over the course of the season – or about .5 wins.

3B – Alex Rodriguez. Coming off of hip surgery, Arod was pretty bad in the field last year. If the ball was hit right at him, he was fine – but if he had to range to either direction, it’s a hit. Since moving to 3B Arod has been a slightly below average defender. His UZR/150 ratings for the last four years are 2006: -12.4, 2007: 2.3, 2008: -3.2, 2009 -11.7. With another year between him and hip surgery, Arod should be a vastly improved defender – but don’t be expecting Adrianne Beltre to show up in pinstripes. Expect Alex to post a negative UZR/150 and be a slightly sub-par defensive 3B.

LF – Brett Gardner. I love Brett Gardner – I predict he will be a 3.5 WAR player this year (that’s better than Johnny Damon). Defensively, Gardner is probably a better CF than Curtis Granderson – but there is no reason to move Granderson off of a position he has played his whole career. Besides, LF in Yankee Stadium has a lot of ground to cover and covering a lot of ground is what Gardner does best. UZR/150 can vary quite a bit from year to year, so it is always better to have at least three years worth of data. Even taking into account the limited number of innings that Gardner has in LF and the OF in general, UZR/150 shows Gardner to be a very good defensive outfielder. This confirms what I have seen with my eyes – when the ball is hit, Gardner is on his horse and tracking it down. He really does cover a lot of ground in the OF.

While I was researching Brett Gardner’s defensive value, I stumbled across a piece written by Dave Cameron – A Gardner Worth His Weight, where Cameron notes that:

“If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.”

I’ve seen a lot of Gardner and have always thought that he had a slightly above average arm for a CF, but didn’t realize that it was so statistically significant. Now, these numbers could be the product of teams testing out Gardner’s arm in less than optimal situations – I think that is how Melky Cabrera racked up a lot of outfield assists when he first arrived on the scene. However, even if the Yankees only realize the low end of the numbers on Gardner’s defense he will be a big upgrade over Johnny Damon in LF. Over the course of a full season, I expect Gardner to post a UZR/150 of 15+, which would put him among the elite defensive LF’s baseball.

CF – Curtis Granderson. A lot has been made of Granderson taking bad routes to balls in the 2^nd half of last year. I don’t know if that was something fluky, a vision problem or lack of preparedness. What I do know is that Granderson has posted some pretty stellar UZR/150 numbers over the course of his career, although they have been declining in the last three years. His last three years UZR/150 are 2007: 12.9, 2008: -9.4, 2009: 1.6. 2008 seems to be an anomaly in terms of how poorly Granderson played. It is the only year that he has posted a negative UZR, however he did follow it up with a very average 1.6 in 2009. Is he as good as he was in 2006 and 2007? Absolutely not, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in 2008. Having Granderson and Gardner in the OF is like having two above average CF’s out there. With Gardner in LF, Granderson should be able to cheat a little bit and cover some extra ground in right center which will be a help to Nick Swisher.

RF – Nick Swisher. Swisher doesn’t have anywhere near the range that Granderson or Gardner does, but he plays a solid RF. Swishers UZR numbers are all over the place because, over the last three years, he has played all three outfield positions and spent significant time at 1B. If you look at his last three years of outfield data, Swisher has posted UZR/150’s of 2007: 4.9, 2008: 0.9, 2009 -1.7 – so essentially he has be an average outfielder not costing his team any runs on defense. He doesn’t have Jessie Barfield’s arm and that did cost the team some runs last year. With the weight loss I suspect Swish will improve his range just a tad and continue to be a league average right fielder.

What does all of this add up to? We can expect the Yankees to be, at best, a middle of the pack defensive team. Granderson and Cano will occasionally misplay the routine ball, but the rest of the team will generally field anything hit right at them. Besides Gardner and Granderson we shouldn’t expect to see Yankees appearing on Web Gems too often. The defense is probably going to cost them a significant number of runs over the course of the year – fortunately, none of the defenders are dreadfully bad and the Yankee offense should be able to overcome most of their defensive deficiencies.