The Yankees will hit, but can they catch the ball?

Defense is becoming an increasingly important part of the game. The Mariners and the Red Sox have bet their post-season prospects on taking away runs as opposed to trying to out-slug the other team. Gone are the days when a team will pay and play a slugger that kills them in the field (unless you are Adam Dunn or Jason Bay – both of whom are so bad on defense that they negate almost all of their offensive value, but that’s a whole other post).

Defensive metrics are imperfect – and we probably aren’t aware of the best metrics because teams keep their proprietary methods for evaluating defense private. Errors and fielding percentage are just plain dumb. They are determined by a non-baseball player keeping score in the booth. UZR, plus/minus, defensive efficiency and range factor have begun to creep into baseball lexicon, but they are still, for the most part, ignored.

The Yankees have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball and the offense is going to score at least 900 runs – those are givens. I wanted to take a look at the Yankees defensive alignment to see how it might impact the team. I’ve tried to break down each position and then reach a conclusion on team defense.

C – Jorge Posada/Fransico Cervelli. It is very difficult to assess catchers defensive prowess – most of my opinion here is pure speculation. While Girardi has said that Posada will catch between 100 – 120 games, entering his age 38 season, it is difficult to determine how many games Posada will see behind the plate (only 5 catchers have caught more than 100 games in a season at 38). Posada’s defense has always been suspect, but in his prime, his bat has hidden his defensive deficiencies. I love Jorge, really I do! However, if you objectively look at his defense (C is the most difficult positions to put a defensive value on) – CS%, CERA (not the best stat), WP’s & PB’s – an objective observer will conclude that Posada is at best average, but more likely towards the bottom of the league in terms of defensive catchers. Cervelli is almost impossible to get a read on because of the small sample size of innings caught at the Major League level. As much as I hate to use anecdotal evidence, Cervelli seems to have the confidence of all the pitchers (CC Sabathia said that if Cervelli wasn’t awarded a full WS Share he would pay it out of his pocket) and he is highly regarded among scouts. Overall, I predict that the Yankees catchers will be, at best league average, but more likely will be slightly below average.

1B – Mark Teixeira. Teixeira’s defense at 1B is a paradox wrapped in an enigma. If you watched every defensive inning in 2009 you probably think Tex is a magic man at 1B, if you look at his UZR/150 you would say he is just average. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. 1B and C are the two position that UZR is less than optimal at determining true defensive value – it over values C’s and undervalues 1B’s. If you look at Tex’s last three years of UZR/150 (you really need at least three years of UZR data to get a true read on a player's defense) his defense has been worth a grand total of 0.0 runs – 2007: -5.2, 2008: 9.3, 2009: -4.1. I didn’t see every inning of Tex’s defense last year, but I saw in excess of 90% of them. My eyes tell me that he was worth more than -4.1 runs at 1B.

His range to his left or right isn’t fantastic, but he is a vacuum cleaner for bad balls throw his way by his colleagues. Tex’s defensive value at 1B isn’t derived by snagging potential doubles hit down the 1B line. His real value comes from the confidence he instills among the other infielders. Tex makes the other infielders better – the papers are filled with quotes from Cano, Jeter and Rodriguez about how they know if they can get the ball in the general direction of 1B that Tex will scoop it – UZR isn’t able to measure that. Despite what UZR says, I say Tex is among the elite defensive 1B’s in baseball. I hate the kind of judgments that are based on what you see as opposed to what you can statistically measure – but I’m making an exception for Tex.

2B – Robinson Cano. Cano may have the best arm of any 2B in the AL and he makes a lot of flashy plays on slowly balls hit into the hole to his left (towards 1B) but overall, Cano’s defense leaves something to be desired. Cano’s last three years of UZR/150 have him worth -0.9 runs. However, UZR/150 paints a different picture if you look at Cano’s year by year UZR/150 rating for each year of his career – 2005: -21.1, 2006: -3.1, 2007: 11.3, 2008: -7.0, 2009: -5.2. To help put those numbers in perspective, in 2009 only two 2B’s (Alberto Callaspo, -7.5 & Brian Roberts, -8.7) in the AL were worse than Cano and in 2008 only one 2B (Alexei Ramirez, -10.6) in the AL was worse. 2007 appears to be the outlier – Cano is more likely to be somewhere closer to his 08/09 numbers in 2010 which would put him at or near the bottom of AL second basemen.

SS – Derek Jeter. The issue of Derek Jeter’s defense has been debated, rehashed and beaten like a dead horse for several years – I don’t want to debate it all again here, so I will be brief. Despite what I wrote about Tex, I generally agree with Billy Beane who once said something to the effect of “I might be a better GM if I never saw a game in person.” When it comes to defense, our eyes can often deceive us – especially in the case of Derek Jeter. Jeter always seems to be in the right place at the right time (a big playoff game), he makes the jump throw look easy and he dives into stands, but no matter how much you or I love Derek Jeter, it is difficult to conclude anything other than that his defense is average (if we are being generous – and don’t start with the Gold Gloves, he didn’t deserve any of them).

A new offseason training regimen supposedly improved Jeter’s first step speed which translated into a better UZR. Since 2002, Jeter has only posted a positive UZR/150 once: 8.4 in 2009 (5^th among AL shortstops). Can he do that again in 2010? I don’t know. It is very rare for a player to improve his defense as he moves into his mid 30’s. Jeter’s track record certainly doesn’t bode well and the Captain is a year older. As long as Jeter doesn’t fall back to his atrociously bad defensive years of 2005 (UZR/150 -12.6: means he cost the team at least 1 win) and 2007 (UZR/150 -16.7: means he cost the team 1.5 wins) the Yankees can live with his defense. If I were a betting man, I would bet that his UZR and overall defense drops back to costing the team 5 or 6 runs over the course of the season – or about .5 wins.

3B – Alex Rodriguez. Coming off of hip surgery, Arod was pretty bad in the field last year. If the ball was hit right at him, he was fine – but if he had to range to either direction, it’s a hit. Since moving to 3B Arod has been a slightly below average defender. His UZR/150 ratings for the last four years are 2006: -12.4, 2007: 2.3, 2008: -3.2, 2009 -11.7. With another year between him and hip surgery, Arod should be a vastly improved defender – but don’t be expecting Adrianne Beltre to show up in pinstripes. Expect Alex to post a negative UZR/150 and be a slightly sub-par defensive 3B.

LF – Brett Gardner. I love Brett Gardner – I predict he will be a 3.5 WAR player this year (that’s better than Johnny Damon). Defensively, Gardner is probably a better CF than Curtis Granderson – but there is no reason to move Granderson off of a position he has played his whole career. Besides, LF in Yankee Stadium has a lot of ground to cover and covering a lot of ground is what Gardner does best. UZR/150 can vary quite a bit from year to year, so it is always better to have at least three years worth of data. Even taking into account the limited number of innings that Gardner has in LF and the OF in general, UZR/150 shows Gardner to be a very good defensive outfielder. This confirms what I have seen with my eyes – when the ball is hit, Gardner is on his horse and tracking it down. He really does cover a lot of ground in the OF.

While I was researching Brett Gardner’s defensive value, I stumbled across a piece written by Dave Cameron – A Gardner Worth His Weight, where Cameron notes that:

“If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.”

I’ve seen a lot of Gardner and have always thought that he had a slightly above average arm for a CF, but didn’t realize that it was so statistically significant. Now, these numbers could be the product of teams testing out Gardner’s arm in less than optimal situations – I think that is how Melky Cabrera racked up a lot of outfield assists when he first arrived on the scene. However, even if the Yankees only realize the low end of the numbers on Gardner’s defense he will be a big upgrade over Johnny Damon in LF. Over the course of a full season, I expect Gardner to post a UZR/150 of 15+, which would put him among the elite defensive LF’s baseball.

CF – Curtis Granderson. A lot has been made of Granderson taking bad routes to balls in the 2^nd half of last year. I don’t know if that was something fluky, a vision problem or lack of preparedness. What I do know is that Granderson has posted some pretty stellar UZR/150 numbers over the course of his career, although they have been declining in the last three years. His last three years UZR/150 are 2007: 12.9, 2008: -9.4, 2009: 1.6. 2008 seems to be an anomaly in terms of how poorly Granderson played. It is the only year that he has posted a negative UZR, however he did follow it up with a very average 1.6 in 2009. Is he as good as he was in 2006 and 2007? Absolutely not, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in 2008. Having Granderson and Gardner in the OF is like having two above average CF’s out there. With Gardner in LF, Granderson should be able to cheat a little bit and cover some extra ground in right center which will be a help to Nick Swisher.

RF – Nick Swisher. Swisher doesn’t have anywhere near the range that Granderson or Gardner does, but he plays a solid RF. Swishers UZR numbers are all over the place because, over the last three years, he has played all three outfield positions and spent significant time at 1B. If you look at his last three years of outfield data, Swisher has posted UZR/150’s of 2007: 4.9, 2008: 0.9, 2009 -1.7 – so essentially he has be an average outfielder not costing his team any runs on defense. He doesn’t have Jessie Barfield’s arm and that did cost the team some runs last year. With the weight loss I suspect Swish will improve his range just a tad and continue to be a league average right fielder.

What does all of this add up to? We can expect the Yankees to be, at best, a middle of the pack defensive team. Granderson and Cano will occasionally misplay the routine ball, but the rest of the team will generally field anything hit right at them. Besides Gardner and Granderson we shouldn’t expect to see Yankees appearing on Web Gems too often. The defense is probably going to cost them a significant number of runs over the course of the year – fortunately, none of the defenders are dreadfully bad and the Yankee offense should be able to overcome most of their defensive deficiencies.