CAIRO Projections

These numbers are from the fine writers of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. You can find the entire set of projections here.

Starting Lineup
Robinson Cano - .306/.355/.511, .372 wOBA, 26 HR, 4 SB
Brett Gardner - .270/.358/.372, .329 wOBA, 5 HR, 38 SB
Curtis Granderson - .252/.335/.462, .346 wOBA, 25 HR, 14 SB
Derek Jeter - .290/.360/.406, .342 wOBA, 13 HR, 15 SB
Russell Martin - .263/.362/.380, .336 wOBA, 11 HR, 11 SB
Jorge Posada - .267/.354/.458, .354 wOBA, 15 HR, 2 SB
Alex Rodriguez - .281/.372/.526, .384 wOBA, 32 HR, 11 SB
Nick Swisher - .260/.354/.470, .357 wOBA, 26 HR, 2 SB
Mark Teixeira - .276/.377/.515, .384 wOBA, 33 HR, 2 SB

Bench
Francisco Cervelli - .255/.326/.347, .303 wOBA, 3 HR, 2 SB
Andruw Jones - .221/.312/.414, .317 wOBA, 16 HR, 6 SB
Jesus Montero - .261/.326/.446, .337 wOBA, 18 HR, 1 SB
Eduardo Nunez - .257/.296/.350, .286 wOBA, 7 HR, 19 SB

Rotation
A.J. Burnett - 187 IP, 189 H, 74 BB, 156 K, 4.66 ERA
Phil Hughes - 172 IP, 161 H, 58 BB, 147 K, 4.22 ERA
Sergio Mitre - 72 IP, 76 H, 21 BB, 43 K, 4.63 ERA
Ivan Nova - 116 IP, 130 H, 49 BB, 72 K, 5.21 ERA
CC Sabathia - 219 IP, 198 H, 60 BB, 176 K, 3.54 ERA

Bullpen
Joba Chamberlain - 85 IP, 81 H, 32 BB, 80 K, 4.25 ERA
Pedro Feliciano - 65 IP, 69 H, 21 BB, 53 BB, 4.18 ERA
Boone Logan - 48 IP, 49 H, 18 BB, 39 K, 4.39 ERA
Mariano Rivera - 68 IP, 49 H, 14 BB, 62 K, 2.69 ERA
David Robertson - 67 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 71 K, 3.99 ERA
Rafael Soriano - 66 IP, 50 H, 17 BB, 61 K, 3.34 ERA

I didn't project an entire 25-man roster, as I doubt that the Yankees are finished making moves. I expect Cashman to add another starter and a utility infielder, and I'm fairly certain that Montero will begin the year at Scranton - his projection was simply too appealing to leave off the list.

As for the projections themselves, I don't find anything to be particularly egregious. I think Jones' overall numbers will be better, as I expect Girardi to use him mostly against lefties, and I'm hopeful that Burnett will bounce back a bit further... otherwise, I'd be satisfied with everything here.

Bill James' Yankees Player Projections

For those of you that are not aware, Fangraphs now has Bill James' projections for the upcoming season on each player's individual page. I am not one-hundred percent certain about James' methodology, but I do know that he considers up to three seasons worth of data, with most of the weight given to the previous season. He also considers a player's age, injury history, and the like. I've also noticed that innings pitched and plate appearances tend to be very similar to the actual numbers from last year, though I'm not sure if that means much of anything.

It's also worth noting that James' projections are notoriously optimistic. While I am quite certain that you'll notice a few regressions here and there, James tends to avoid banking on heavy regression. For the most part, players regress to the mean or progress - as a Yankee fan, that's something that I'm very hopeful for.

Without further ado, here are the key Yankees for 2011, with one prospective Yankee thrown in for good measure.

Jorge Posada
.260/.363/.454, .357 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 16 HR, 414 PA

Jesus Montero
.285/.348/.519, .376 wOBA, 137 wRC+, 21 HR, 442 PA

Mark Teixeira
.282/.383/.532, .393 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 36 HR, 698 PA

Robinson Cano
.308/.356/.502, .371 wOBA, 133 wRC+, 24 HR, 669 PA

Alex Rodriguez
.284/.381/.530, .393 wOBA, 148 wRC+, 35 HR, 621 PA

Derek Jeter
.295/.365/.410, .344 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 13 HR, 703 PA

Brett Gardner
.275/.377/.371, .349 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 5 HR, 50 SB, 589 PA

Curtis Granderson
.264/.341/.471, .355 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 25 HR, 646 PA

Nick Swisher
.257/.359/.472, .362 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 27 HR, 614 PA

CC Sabathia
18-8, 3.32 ERA, 236 IP, 215 H, 65 BB, 202 K

Phil Hughes
12-7, 3.56 ERA, 177 IP, 160 H, 60 BB, 166 K

A.J. Burnett
12-9, 4.01 ERA, 191 IP, 182 H, 77 BB, 177 K

Andy Pettitte
9-7, 3.86 ERA, 140 IP, 144 H, 42 BB, 107 K

Ivan Nova
4-5, 4.61 ERA, 80 IP, 86 H, 36 BB, 57 K

Cliff Lee
14-10, 3.50 ERA, 216 IP, 215 H, 49 BB, 169 K

Joba Chamberlain
5-3, 3.79 ERA, 76 IP, 71 H, 30 BB, 81 K

David Robertson
5-2, 3.04 ERA, 68 IP, 53 H, 35 BB, 89 K

Boone Logan
2-3, 4.40 ERA, 45 IP, 45 H, 20 BB, 43 K

Mariano Rivera
5-2, 1.89 ERA, 62 IP, 47 H, 11 BB, 58 K

Perhaps a more appropriate title would have been "The 2011 Yankees Through Rose-Colored Glasses." Sure, there's some regression there - mostly in the forms of Cano and Swisher regressing towards the mean. At the same time, Posada, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Jeter, Granderson, Hughes, and Burnett look much better than their 2010 numbers would dictate going forward. Regardless, I'd be very satisfied with each and every one of these lines - particularly if Montero comes out of the gate like a young Brian McCann or Johnny Bench.

Breaking Down the May Schedule

With the Yankees finishing up April tonight with only their 7th home game of the season against the White Sox, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look and break down the May Schedule.

Home Games: 16
Away Games: 13

Three of the thirteen away games the Yankees will be sleeping in their own beds. (@ Mets)
The Yankees will spend just Three games in a different time zone (@ Twins) Central Time Zone.

Teams:

White Sox: 2 (home)
Orioles: 3 (home)
Red Sox: 6 (3 @ Boston & 3 home)
Tigers: 4 (@ Detroit)
Twins: 6 (3 @ Minnesota, 3 home)
Rays: 2 (home)
Mets: 3 (@ Mets)
Indians: 4 (home)

Teams Over .500: 4
Teams at .500: 1
Teams Under .500: 3

Significant Series:

@ Boston 5/7-5/9
Vs. Boston 5/17-5/18
Vs. Tampa 5/19-5/20
@ Mets 5/21-5/23

Possible Story-lines:

- Will Javier Vazquez recover from a terrible April, or continue to crack under the pressure of playing in NY?

- Can Mark Teixeira have a bigger May 2010 than his 2009?

- Can anyone get Robinson Cano out?

So the Yankees have a seemingly advantageous May schedule if you consider how well they play at home (5-1 this year, .703 Winning Percentage in 2009), the limited road schedule, and a 4-3 Home-Away split of significant series against tough division rivals. It's possible that the Yankees win 19 games this month making them 19-10 in the month of May. With one game left in April the Yankees currently sit at 14-7 (2.5 games behind the Rays). The Yanks are off to one of their best starts in the past few years and looking at the May schedule they are primed to continue their solid play. Obviously anything can happen, and that is why they play the games. Let's sit back and enjoy the ride.

2010 SIH Preseason Predictions

The season is less that three days away, so it's time for the 2010 Sliding Into Home staff predictions. I intended to post the image I put together directly in the post, but was too big for the blog, so you can click here or on the thumbnail to the right to check out the predictions. Then come back and tell us what you think.

I'm gonna leave this on top for the day, so look for new posts below.

Long: Gardner can be another Lofton

I was going to post this yesterday afternoon, but with my previous post being about who the Yankees should sign next year to play left, it's only fitting that my next one be about Brett Gardner. I mention in the Crawford/Werth post that "Barring a breakout season by Brett Gardner, the Yankees will likely be in the market for an outfielder next off-season."

If Gardner can play everyday, I think that Gardner could surprise a lot of people, and as we find out from Mark Hale, so does Kevin Long.

“If I seem overly excited about him, I am,” said Long, who compared Gardner to Lofton, who was a star speedster for nearly two decades.

“Kenny was a bigger, more physical player, or [physical] looking player. But Gardy could do what Kenny Lofton did. I wouldn’t see why he couldn’t,” Long told The Post. “That would be a good comparison.”

“I think he’s a great player,” Long said. “I’m a big, big Brett Gardner fan. I think he’s going to do terrific. I’m excited for the fact that he’s going to get to start a ton of games. I don’t feel like there’s pressure, like he has to go out and perform in the first two weeks, otherwise he’s out.

“I think this is a kid you just throw in there every day, pencil him in the lineup, hit him down ninth and see at the end of the year if he’s at .270, .280, if he doesn’t steal 65-70 bases, if he doesn’t score 100 runs hitting in the nine-hole.”

And does Long think Gardner can do all that?

“Yes. I do,” said the hitting coach. “I think if you put Brett Gardner on the free market right now and said, ‘Anybody want him?’ I think every team in baseball would want him and probably have him leading off for you. That’s how good he is.”

“What he gets lost in is all the talent we have in this room. So you go, ‘Oh, he’s Brett Gardner,’ “ Long said. “I just think that he’s a really, really good player and someone who can really help us. And if you give him the at-bats day in and day out, he’ll have numbers to prove it.”

Those are some high expectations.

I was interested to see what the experts were expecting to see from Gardner, so I went over to Fangraphs and checked out their projections page. Before looking at the numbers, you should know that none of these systems believe Gardner will play everyday.

• Bill James: In 370 plate appearances: .277/.368/.375, 36 stolen bases, 63 runs.
• CHONE: In 404 PA: .266/.351/.375, 29 SB, 60 R.
• Marcel: In 356 PA: .265/.337/.383, 23 SB, 52 R.
• ZiPS: In 431 PA: .253/.328/.344, 32 SB, 66 R.
  

If you extrapolate the numbers to a full season's worth of PA he falls short of Long's predictions in the last three, but with Bill James' numbers the totals are pretty close. Assuming a full season from the bottom of the order will get him around 540 plate appearances--Melky's total from last year--that would bring his stolen base total to 53, and run to 92 (if my math is correct). Had Gardner played everyday last year, those numbers wouldn't have been too far behind Long's either. In 284 PA, Gardner hit .270/.345/.379 with 26 stolen bases and 48 runs scored. That turns into 50 stolen bases and 91 runs for 540 PA. I think most Yankees fans would be dancing in the streets if we got a season like that from Gardner this year.

You also have to wonder what all the work on his bunting will add to his game. I've mentioned before on this blog how important I feel improving his bunting is to his game. So that's another thing to pay attention to.

The toughest thing for him will be to stay in the lineup. Because with guys like Randy Winn and Marcus Thames waiting on the bench, the Yankees aren't going to be too patient with Gardner if he starts the season hitting .150. But if he can get off to a hot start and stay in the lineup, I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers do come close to those predicted by Long and James. Would you?

How does the Yankee Offense Stack Up

So, I was watching ESPN the other day (and you know how they love us) one of their baseball "experts" said come July the Yankees will realize they are a bat short. Because much of the off season talk has centered around replacing the production lost from Damon, Matsui, and Melky; I decided to take a look and project what this years Yankees Starting line up will look like at the end of the season.

My projections are based on player 3 year averages when applicable, how they are playing this spring, and adjusting to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. (Granted all are based on full seasons)

Note: I did not include Runs scored because it is difficult to quantify while inserting new players.
Here they are:

Player	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SB
Jeter	0.315	15	63	0.388	20
Johnson	0.280	12	65	0.43	1
Tex	0.300	33	120	0.39	2
A-rod	0.290	37	120	0.4	15
Cano	0.310	20	80	0.35	4
Posada	0.280	20	75	0.365	1
Granderson	0.265	30	75	0.35	18
Swisher	0.245	25	85	0.365	0
Gardner	0.250	3	40	0.32	40
	0.282	195	723	0.373	101

I tend to think these projections are conservative, but let's take a look.

The team average of .282 is solid. Home Runs with 195 are down from a season ago, but the projections do not add in production from bench players as well as late season call ups. The total amount of Runs Batted In worries me a bit, but you have to adjust for runs that are scored with no RBI, bench production, as well as late season call up production. OBP sitting at .373 is very solid as always with a patient Yankee line up. Finally stolen bases at 101 is higher than in past years because we are looking at a possible full season of Brett Gardner at the bottom of the order. If Gardner and perform at a measly .250 clip he will provide a dynamic bottom of the order presence that can cause a ruckus on the bases while solid situational hitters like Jeter and Johnson step the plate.

The Yankees took a hit losing Damon, Matsui, and Melky Cabrera's production, but they have adequately replaced them and the Yankee offense will be just fine. Keep in mind these projections are conservative and with a more solid pitching staff the Yankees are primed to be in contention for the AL East crown, and a deep run into October.

Looking for some projections?

Fangraphs.com has set up a great page with all the projections you need. They have a tab for CHONE, one for ZiPS, another for Marcel, and even one for fan projections. The individual player pages also include projections from Bill James. You can check out the main projections page by clicking here.

Since the fifth starters race is the big news in Yankeeland, I figured I'd post the projections for both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes.

Joba:

• CHONE: 5-2, 3.52 ERA, 64 IP, 54 H, 25 ER, 27 BB, 68 K
• Marcel: 7-5, 4.23 ERA, 134 IP, 131 H, 63 ER, 56 BB, 126 K
• ZiPS: 8-5, 4.21 ERA, 147.3 IP, 143 H, 69 ER, 63 BB, 136 K
• Fans: 10-7, 4.00 ERA, 157 IP, 175 H, 70 ER, 65 BB, 150 K

Hughes:

• CHONE: 8-5, 4.03 ERA, 116 IP, 109 H, 52 ER, 41 BB, 109 K
• Marcel: 6-4, 4.00 ERA, 81 IP, 74 H, 36 ER, 29 BB, 75 K
• ZiPS: 7-5, 4.32 ERA, 93.7 IP, 93 H, 45 ER, 33 BB, 84 K
• Fans: 10-6, 3.80 ERA, 138 IP, 145 H, 58 ER, 46 BB, 131 K

I know these mean absolutely nothing once the games begin, but they're still fun to look at. The differences you see in innings is based on the particular projection's view on their future roles. I'm really not surprised to see that the projections for both are pretty similar. While the debate rages about who should have which role, I think that either Hughes or Chamberlain will dominate if they're relievers, and be right around decent as starters.

... It's kind of odd that this ended up turning into a Hughes and Joba post--not my intentions when I first started...

Anyway, head over to Fangraphs and check out all the projections, it's definitely something worth perusing while you wait for real baseball to begin.

Predicting The Roster

Before any games are played I think it's a good time for my first roster prediction. There are really only three spots up for debate; the final two relief spots and the final seat on the bench. The fifth starter debate, who will play what position in the outfield, and who will bat 2, 5, 6, and 7th are obviously still question marks, but the players involved in those discussions will all likely be on the roster. So with that said, if everyone remains healthy this spring I think this will be the Yankees opening day roster:

Starting Lineup:
Derek Jeter SS
Nick Johnson DH
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Curtis Granderson CF
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Brett Gardner LF

Bench:
Randy Winn OF
Ramiro Pena INF
Francisco Cervelli C
Jamie Hoffmann OF

Starting Rotation:
CC Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Javy Vazquez
Joba Chamberlain

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera
Phil Hughes
Damaso Marte
David Robertson
Chan Ho Park
Alfredo Aceves
Boone Logan

Based on Brian Cashman's quote and his ability to play all three outfield positions well, I think Jamie Hoffmann will make the team over Marcus Thames. He's younger, may have more of an upside, plus he's much better defensively than Thames.

With the two remaining spots in the pen I think the Yanks go with Aceves for his versatility and for what he did last year. I also think they take a second lefty. Girardi has said this spring that he likes the luxury of having two lefties in the pen so that's why I went with Logan.

How does this match up with your projected roster?

Another Change To PECOTA... Seriously?

PECOTA has once again updated their projections for the 2010 season. I believe this is the fifth time they've changed their projections. Now they have the Yankees allowing fewer runs, but scoring fewer and finishing in second place behind Boston. Here's how their fifth shot at these projections look:



What, has the addition of Marcus Thames made them worse?

2010 CHONE Projections

We've already seem the many incarnations of the PECOTA projections, which, in the end, finally got things right (at least in my mind) and projected the Yankees to win the division again. Today, we have the 2010 CHONE projections (hat-tip to TYU) which also has the Yankees winning the division, but also getting the highest projection ever for the system. Before getting to that, here's a look at the projected standings for each division:

Back to the Yankees, and their projection:

Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life. We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won't win that many games.

But yet I'm projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I've ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.

First of all, LOL @ the "Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus" line.... Once again projections are just that, projections, and they mean very little when the games start in just over two months. Still, it's nice to see the Yankees at the top of these things, it's better than being at the bottom.

PECOTA Changes Projections Again

First they had the Yankees finishing third and missing the playoffs, then they had the Yanks and Red Sox finishing in a tie for first in the division, and now they have the Yankees winning outright. Here are the latest PECOTA projections:

I have no idea why these projections have changed three times, but they've changed for the better -- at least if you're a Yankees fan. Still, these mean little, they're just projections, the only way the Yankees are going to win is if they do it on the field.

PECOTA Changes Their Projections

Earlier this week PECOTA posted their 2010 projected standings and had the Yankees finishing third in the AL East and missing the postseason. If you don't remember here's what those standings looked like:

Most Yankees fans I spoke to were not happy with these projections, and apparently neither was Baseball Prospectus, cause now they've been revised. Here are the new 2010 PECOTA projections:

Now, the Yankees are picked to come in tied for first and at least making the playoffs as the Wild Card. Apparently the whole system needed tweaking, specifically the offensive numbers, which seemed to have taken a dip across the board. But I have one question: How are the Rangers and A's are both going to finish better than the Angels and Mariners?

PECOTA Picks Yanks To Finish 3rd?

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) came out with their annual projections (hat-tip to Circling The Bases) and I'm pretty disappointed with where they have the Yankees.

(click to enlarge)

If you were wondering, here's last year's.

This obviously doesn't mean the Yankees won't win the division, or the AL, or the World Series. I'm just wondering what PECOTA saw that caused them to predict a 3rd place finish for the Yanks. Could the loss of Matsui, Damon and Melky really have a bigger impact than the additions of Granderson, Vazquez, Johnson and Winn?

Here's the NL projections, they have the Mets finishing 4th at 77-85.

2010 UZR Projections

Beyond the Box Score's Jeff Zimmerman has come out with UZR projections for the 2010 season. All the data can be found on this spreadsheet, and the math used to determine the numbers is here. (hat-tip to River Ave. Blues)

As you may or may not know, the higher the number on the positive side the better. Here's how the Yanks projections look, along with this year's numbers:

Position/Player	2009 UZR	2010 Projections
1B – Mark Teixeira	-3.7	+0.6
2B – Robinson Cano	-5.2	-1.7
SS – Derek Jeter	+6.6	-1.9
3B – Alex Rodriguez	-8.6	-3.8
LF – Johnny Damon	-12.1	-2.8
CF – Johnny Damon	----	-5
CF – Brett Gardner	+7.2	+3.7
LF – Melky Cabrera	-2.5	+0.9
RF – Melky Cabrera	-0.5	-0.1
CF – Melky Cabrera	+1.4	-1.9
RF – Nick Swisher	-0.7	+0.4
LF – Nick Swisher	-0.5	+0.7

Surprisingly, the projections call for improvement by most of the Yankees, with Jeter, Melky in center, and Gardner being the only Yankees who are not projected to improve.

Breaking Down The Game 3 Matchup

Well, after a boring off-day, the World Series is back and will resume tonight as the Yanks and Phillies will play Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park, to make for an extra special Halloween.

For the Yankees, they're coming off that Game 2 win back at Yankee Stadium in which they beat Pedro Martinez, and A.J. Burnett threw a gem as the Yanks won 3-1. It tied the series up at 1 game a piece, and now they will send Andy Pettitte out to the hill trying to take a 2 games to 1 lead in the Fall Classic. This postseason, Andy has been great, allowing just 5 runs in 19 innings while striking out 15. He pitched Game 6 of the ALCS and allowed only 1 run against the Angels. The Yanks, as you know, went on to win the game to send them to the World Series.

As for the Phillies, they're very confident going into Game 3 as the Series is back in Philly, where the Phillies have had an overpowerng home-field advantage against their opponents, just like the Yanks in the new Stadium. Citizens Bank Park will be rocking, and the Yanks will really need to focus. But with a struggling lefty in Cole Hamels starting for the Phillies, the Yanks may actually have the edge even though they're playing at the Bank. Hamels, the hero for the Phillies last October, has had a horrid postseason, sporting a 6.75 ERA in 2 starts. He actually nearly blew the lead for the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS, but Charlie Manuel took him out before the Dodgers could tee-off him any longer. So the Phillies will really need to cross their fingers here if they want to win this game.

All in all, I really think the Yankees have the edge here. Pettitte has been great all year, while Hamels has been very inconsistent and very well may get bombed tonight in Philadelphia. I see Pettitte going 6 plus of 2 or 3-run ball, and I think the Yankees will come away with the Game 3 win.

An Early Turnpike Series Preview

(Note - preview/comparison posts by Mike and Joe will be posted tomorrow as well)

I know we're all still pumped about last night's game in which the Yanks won their 40th AL Pennant, but with just 2 days until Game 1, I'm gonna take a shot at previewing which very may be an exciting World Series between the Yankees and Phillies.

As we all know, the Bombers are coming off a thrilling 5-2 win last night to eliminate the Angels and head to the World Series for the first time since 2003. Andy pitched great, Mo got a 6-out save, and it was all fun and games following the last out. But the Yanks will have to get back to business quickly, as Game 1 is right around the corner, and the Yanks are poised to finally capture the elusive 27th ring.

And right down the Turnpike we see Philadelphia, the defending champs, and after winning the NLCS almost a week ago, the Phillies were resting up to see who they would face in the Fall Classic - now they know, obviously, and as I speak are having a workout at Citizens Bank Park. Last year the Phillies waited 6 days until playing the Rays in last year's WS, and this year it will be 7 days until first pitch is thrown. As you know, they showed no signs of tiredness after resting for such a long time last fall, but 2008 was 2008. It's 2009 now, and you never know what Philly might be feeling.

Let's get to the comparisons. First, let's get to first. Both Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard had huge years for the Yanks and Phillies in the regular season, but as soon as the playoffs started, Howard jumped way in front of Teixeira by driving in 14 runs combined in the NLDS and NLCS, while Teix struggled and drove in only 4 combined. But, while Howard may be a bit better offensively, Teix provides much better defense at first, and after hitting that big 3-run double in Game 5 and then after picking up a couple hits in Game 6, Teix may be on the verge of a huge World Series. But on the verge, isn't the same as actually doing it. Right now, I go with Howard.

Edge: Phillies

Now, let's move to 2nd base. Both Chase Utley and Robinson Cano are slick fielding, power hitting, RBI machines, and both of them proved that in the regular season as Cano knocked 25 out of the park and drove in 85, and Utley slammed 31 out and drove in 93. Defensively, Cano has a better arm, (but thanks to Name and other commenters) Utley has the edge in the field.

Edge: EVEN

Now, 3rd base. I don't think this really needs to go into specifics, but I'll do it anyway. Alex Rodriguez is having the postseason of his life, as the slugger has finally gotten out of his playoff slump. ALCS and ALDS stats combine show A-Rod is hitting .438 with 5 home runs and 12 RBIs. Hopefully he can continue his dominance in the World Series, and if he does that, the Yanks have a very good chance to bring home #27. But there is another 3rd baseman on the other team. His name is Pedro Feliz, and he is having the complete opposite of the postseason that A-Rod is having. He's batting .161 with just 1 walk in all 9 playoff games. This is a tough one, but I'm gonna have to go with...

Edge: Yankees

Now let's discuss the shortstops. Derek Jeter had an MVP-caliber year for the Yanks during the regular season, and Jimmy Rollins didn't do that much worse for the Phillies. They're both pretty even, regular season stats wise. But in the playoffs, Rollins has failed to pick up an RBI, while the Captain has drove in 5 and hit 3 long balls. Even if Rollins played better than Jeter this postseason, Jeter would get the edge, because of his postseason experience. Sure, Rollins won last year, but Derek has won 4 and has made the playoffs 12 of his 13 year career.

Edge: Yankees

Let's go behind the plate and discuss Jorge Posada and Carlos Ruiz. Jorge has more experience and is having a good postseason, hitting a couple homers and driving in 3 RBIs. The only bad thing - 7 strikeouts. He needs to swing at more pitches, and needs to actually make contact when he does swing. Fixes that, and he's all good. Ruiz is in his 4th year in the Bigs, and had a pretty nice year. He hit 9 homers, drove in over 30 RBIs, and is a pretty good defensive catcher. He also had a big NLCS. But like with the shortstop comparison, its the experience that plays a factor, and Jorge has much more experience and really, is a better player overall.

Edge: Yankees

Instead of comparing every Yankees outfielder to every Phillies outfielder, I'm just gonna put the Yankees and Phillies' respective outfielders together and compare them as a group. For the Yankees, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, and Nick Swisher, is good - offensively, at least. Defensively, Damon, even though he's one of my favorite players, plays a terrible outfield, as we all know, and Swish is right about average defensively if not a bit below average. Melky really is the only really good defender out in the outfield, but thanks to the power of Johnny Damon and Nick Swisher, putting them out there inning after inning isn't a bad thing at all. For the Phillies, you got Raul Ibanez in left, Shane Victorino in center, and Jayson Werth in right. Ibanez has power and plays an average outfield, Shane Victorino "The Flying Hawaiian" has speed and plays a very good outfield, and Werth is a big home-run hitter and is a great outfielder (again, thanks to the commenters for pointing that out). Here I give the edge to the Phillies because they have slightly more power in the outfield, plus defensively, they're a better outfield.

Edge: Phillies

Sorry this is so long, but now on to the Pitching Rotations. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte have all shined tihs postseason, and rightfully so have been tabbed as the best rotation in the World Series. CC was the ALCS MVP, A.J. tossed a couple nice games before allowing 6 runs in Game 5, and Andy has been his normal postseason self. The Phillies' have Cliff Lee, Cole Hammels, and Pedro, yes, Pedro Martinez. Cliff Lee has been great as expected, Cole Hammels, well, he's been okay, and Pedro, in his only playoff start, allowed a run against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS. Besides CC against Cliff Lee in Games 1, 4, and 7, it doesn't look like the other matchups will be THAT intriguing, ya know. The edge goes to the Yanks here.

Edge: Yankees

Next, the guys after the rotation - the bullpens. I'm don't know that much on the Phillies 'pen, but after watching maybe 10 Phillies games, and that includes the series vs the Yanks back in June plus the two playoff series, I've seen that they're pretty good. And even though Brad Lidge blew 11 saves this season, he's regained his form as well. But he does not compare to the best closer in baseball in Mariano Rivera, and I believe the rest of the bullpen as well has an advantage over the Phillies.

Edge: Yankees

And last, but certainly not least, the managers. Charlie Manuel, coming off his first World Series Championship last year, has been the Phillies manager since 2006, and since then has lead the Phillies to 3 straight NL East titles. Obviously, he has more experience than Joe Girardi, and know when I think about, there's really no need for this paragraph.

Edge: Phillies

But all in all, I think that the Yankees will finally capture #27 by beating the Phillies in six games. I think the series will have many memories and exciting moments for both sides, but in the end, I see the Yankees winning #27 this fall. That's just my opinion, but hopefully I'm right.

My outlook on the ALCS

Well I sat down to take a quick look at the numbers and this ended up ensuing.

Angels Game 1 starter, John Lackey.

What the hitters have to do, get hits, get them often and cash in, stats don’t lie.

What’s important here is that the Yankee line-up goes Jeter, Damon and Teixeira to lead off a game, they are hitting .341, .333, and .388 respectively against him. This should lead to early base runners and hopefully quick runs. Arod though is not particularly inclined to do great things against Lackey hitting at a .176 clip. But the guys following, Posada and Matsui hit him to the tune of .414 and .286. Hopefully they can get to Lackey early and get into the underbelly of the bullpen.

Angels Game 2 starter, Joe Saunders.

What the Hitters have to do, grind, grind and get the timely hit.

Now the Yankees have not seen Saunders as much as Lackey, in fact 6 hitters have more then 10 at bats and 6 have less then 10(that includes bench players) but the numbers are pretty good to say the least. The guys who lead off for the Yanks bat .467, .286 and .125, Tex disappoints but Arod makes up for that batting .500 with 2 homers. Guys following Arod, Posada and Matsui, .500 and 1.000 but that’s in les then 5 plate appearances. Nick Swisher in more plate appearances than anyone else on the team, with 21, has a .238 average but makes up for it with a .360obp, but it looks like they see good things off him and have his number as a team. Because of the limited experience against Saunders I can see this starting off slow but in the end with the way Jeter, Damon and Arod hit against him I can see the Yankees getting timely hits and pulling out in front.

Angels Game 3 starter, Jered Weaver.

What the hitters have to do, sit back and hope to get that tater with a few runners on.

The key to success here is mashing the ball. Jeter, Damon, Posada, Matsui and Melky flat out stink against weaver, Jeter hits .118, Damon .158, Tex .261, Arod .333, Cano .400, Matsui .200, Posada .143, Melky .083. The top of the line up can’t get on, the bottom of the line up can’t get on, but the middle of the line can and they can mash. Arod has 4 homers off Weaver and could be a big player in this one.

Angels Game 4 starter, Scott Kazmir.

What the hitters have to do, grind, grind, grind and don’t crap their pants.

The Yankees stink, I say STINK against Kazmir. It’s ugly, real ugly. As a team it’s a collective .222 with a .307obp. Melky Cabrera and Tex are the only guys with averages worth noting at .400 and .636. Pray, hope, whip out the superstitions and just wait this one out.

When it comes to the Yankees and their 3-man rotation I feel pretty confident with CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte. As a team the Angels hit .297 against CC. It’s a bit disheartening but I think CC rewrites the chapter, he’s with the Yankees this time not the Indians. AJ has better numbers compared to CC and Andy(Andy’s coming up next) against the Angels. As the team they hit a .258 clip off Burnett. The long ball threats, Vlad, Morales and Hunter are held to a .214, .167, .087 average. He just has to contain Figgins, Abreu and Napoli to have greater success. Andy however has gotten smacked around by the Angels to the sound of .307, Vlad smacks him to a .391 average, Erick Aybar a pesky hitter and a speed threat hits .438, and a few other guys have shellacked him around too. What the Yankees need from Andy is the typical Andy post-season performance. And we know what Andy’s post season rep is.

Be sure to check back in the afternoon for more weather updates, Joe's ALCS breakdown, Greg's game thread and make sure you don't miss 1st pitch, tentatively scheduled for 7:57pm.

Previewing The ALCS

I know Greg or Mike might want to do something like this in the coming days, and I know Game 1 isn't until Friday, but I'd like to preview the AL Championship Series between the Yanks and the Angels.

The Yankees, as you know, are coming off a great ALDS against the Twins, as they swept Minnesota in 3 games to advance to the Championship Series for the first time since 2004. All 3 games were exciting and all of them included big hits by Alex Rodriguez, who hit .455 with 2 homers and 6 RBIs in the ALDS. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte all pitched great, as did the bullpen. The Twins were just no match for the Yanks, and that is what got the Yankees a chance for their 40th A.L. Pennant.

The Angels are coming off a very big sweep of the Boston Red Sox as they scored 3 runs in the top of the 9th off Jonathan Papelbum to give LA a big 7-6 win, to send the Red Sox home and give the Angels their first ALCS appearance since 2005. Their strong rotation and their running game were big factors in eliminating the Sox, and even former Yank Bobby Abreu had a great series against Boston, so the Angels are riding high into the ALCS, as are the Yanks.

When the 2 teams faced each other in the regular season, the Yankees and Angels split 10 games, each winning 5, obviously. The Angels actually swept the Yankees in 3 games before the All-Star Break, and that was a very deflating series for the Yankees, as they ended the first half with a sour taste in their mouths. But last month, the Yankees played 4 games against the Halos, and the Yankees took 3 of those games, one of them securing a playoff berth for the Bombers at Angel Stadium. That proved that the Yankees can beat the Angels in Anaheim, and if you look at the final 4 games between the teams, the Yankees have the edge.

Both pitching rotations are strong, as both teams have reliable 1, 2, and 3 starters. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte are the Yankees trio, while John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and Scott Kazmir are the Angels'. Lackey is in the final year of his contract and will become a free-agent this offseason. He missed the first month and a half or so, but ended up going 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA. Weaver went 16-8 with a 3.75 ERA, and Kazmir went a combined 10-9 with a 4.89 ERA with the Rays and Angels. I believe the Yankees rotation just beats out the Angels' rotation.

Advantage: Yankees

The Yankees and Angels' offenses are very different. The Yankees are a powerhouse team and score most of their runs by the long ball, as they hit a team-record 244 home runs in the regular season. They scored 915 runs and allowed only 753 runs to their opponents.

The Angels offense has guys with power, but not as much as the Yankees. As you know, the Angels rely heavily on their running game, and do the little things to get runs across. The addition of former Yankee Bobby Abreu and a great season by Kendry Morales were really key in the regular season and the ALDS. They scored 883 runs and allowed 761 to their opponents.

I'm gonna give the Yankees the edge here, because, not trying to be repetitive, but their entire lineup can hit and they average about 6 runs a game. Plus, with the amazing postseason A-Rod is having, there seems no stopping him and the Yankee lineup The Angels' lineup ain't bad either, but when you're facing a powerhouse team like the Yankees, stealing bases won't be enough.

Advantage: Yankees

Now let's get to the bullpens. Both teams' bullpens struggled at the beginning of the year, and were giving up hits and runs like there was no tomorrow. But as the season progressed, both the Angels and Yankees' pens improved, and they both became a real strength of the team.

Let's start with LA. Besides the loss of closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets over the offseason and the addition of Brian Fuentes, the bullpen pretty much stayed the same. And at the beginning of the season, that didn't look like it was a good idea, as Fuentes struggled and the Angels were struggling to stay above the .500 mark. But Fuentes then got hot, as did the bullpen, and by the end of the year the Angels' bullpen was one of the best in the league, as Fuentes picked up 48 saves and the Angels' pen became one of the strengths of the team once again.

The Yankees pen kinda had the same story. They started out slow, Mariano Rivera blew 2 saves in April, and the Yankees desperately relied on their starters to go 6 or 7 strong every outing. But then Mariano Rivera got hot, converting 38 straight saves all the way through the all-star break, and Phil Hughes emerged as the star setup man and the Yankees' pen became one of, if not the, best bullpen in the American League.

I'm going to give the edge to the Yankees here too. When it comes to the closers, Mariano Rivera has much more experience in the playoffs than Brian Fuentes, plus, Mariano Rivera is just too good. The Angels really don't have a definite setup man, and the Yankees have a dominant one in Phil Hughes. Throw in Joba Chamberlain pumping 95 on the gun in the 7th, and the Yankee bullpen can beat any team.

Advantage: Yankees

Now, let's get to the managers. Joe Girardi and Mike Scioscia have each done great jobs this year for the Yankees and Angels, and both should get some votes for AL Manager Of The Year. But I believe the edge here would go to the Angels. Scioscia is in his 10th year managing the Angels, and he's grabbed 5 division titles (2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009) and a World Championship (2002) to Los Angeles, and he has much more experience in the playoffs. Sure, Joe may have played in a lot of playoff games, but when it comes to managing, it's a whole new ballgame.

Advantage: Angels

And finally, let's talk about the teams in general. Offensive, defensive, and pitching staff wise, they're pretty much even. But when you really look into it with detail, the Yankees have a slight edge in all the categories, except, as you can see above, when it comes to the managers.

My final prediction: Yankees in 6

I think this ALCS is going to be very exciting and will have many exciting and memorable moments for both teams, but in the end, I except the Yankees to come away with the AL Pennant and a trip to the World Series.

And hopefully I'm right.

Obama Thinks Yanks are World Series Bound

(If you have any complaints about health care or any of his other policies, do me a favor and keep it to yourself. Thank you.)

From the AP via the NY Post:

President Barack Obama is such a big Chicago White Sox fan that he's not making any predictions as long as his beloved home team has a mathematical shot at the playoffs.

But he's tipping his hand a bit with mentions of the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Yankees.

He tells NBC's "Meet the Press" that the Cardinals are coming on strong. And he says slugging first baseman Albert Pujols is "unbelievable." Pujols leads the big leagues in home runs, is tied for first in runs batted in, and is second in batting average in the National League.

As for the American League, Obama says the Yankees are doing well. And he singles out New York shortstop Derek Jeter for breaking Lou Gehrig's team record for career hits. Obama calls Jeter "a classic."

I heard Congressman Joe Wilson, a Braves fan, was on the set and shouted "YOU LIE!!!" but was quickly escorted out by NBC security.

Obviously, being the fan that I am, even with today's ugly loss I think the Yankees have a great chance at going all the way. But for most of the year I would have said the Dodgers or Phillies were going to come out of the NL, but lately I'm starting to think differently. The Cards have a very good team and their pitching is very solid. The addition of Matt Holliday and the resurgence of Chris Carpenter only strengthen their already good chances. LA and Philly are great too, but I think this is the Cards year, at least as far as the NL goes. Either way, the NL playoffs should be highly entertaining.

Thanks for the endorsement Mr. President.

My 2009 Predictions

What better day than opening day to post some predictions for the upcoming year? My 2008 predictions were crap so let's hope I can do a little better this time around.

American League

AL East
Yankees
Red Sox (WC)
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays

AL Central
Indians
Twins
Tigers
White Sox
Royals

AL West
Angels
A's
Rangers
Mariners

National League

NL East
Mets
Phillies (WC)
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

NL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Astros
Pirates

NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Padres


Playoffs

ALDS
Yanks over Angels
Red Sox over Indians

ALCS
Yanks over Red Sox

NLDS
Cubs over Mets
Phillies over Dodgers

NLCS
Phillies over Cubs

WS
Yanks over Phillies

Awards

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
AL ROY: Matt Wieters

NL MVP: Manny Ramirez
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL ROY: Cameron Maybin

How do you think the 2009 season will go? Post your predictions in the comments section.