Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Looking for some projections?

Fangraphs.com has set up a great page with all the projections you need. They have a tab for CHONE, one for ZiPS, another for Marcel, and even one for fan projections. The individual player pages also include projections from Bill James. You can check out the main projections page by clicking here.

Since the fifth starters race is the big news in Yankeeland, I figured I'd post the projections for both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes.

Joba:
  • CHONE: 5-2, 3.52 ERA, 64 IP, 54 H, 25 ER, 27 BB, 68 K
  • Marcel: 7-5, 4.23 ERA, 134 IP, 131 H, 63 ER, 56 BB, 126 K
  • ZiPS: 8-5, 4.21 ERA, 147.3 IP, 143 H, 69 ER, 63 BB, 136 K
  • Fans: 10-7, 4.00 ERA, 157 IP, 175 H, 70 ER, 65 BB, 150 K
Hughes:
  • CHONE: 8-5, 4.03 ERA, 116 IP, 109 H, 52 ER, 41 BB, 109 K
  • Marcel: 6-4, 4.00 ERA, 81 IP, 74 H, 36 ER, 29 BB, 75 K
  • ZiPS: 7-5, 4.32 ERA, 93.7 IP, 93 H, 45 ER, 33 BB, 84 K
  • Fans: 10-6, 3.80 ERA, 138 IP, 145 H, 58 ER, 46 BB, 131 K
I know these mean absolutely nothing once the games begin, but they're still fun to look at. The differences you see in innings is based on the particular projection's view on their future roles. I'm really not surprised to see that the projections for both are pretty similar. While the debate rages about who should have which role, I think that either Hughes or Chamberlain will dominate if they're relievers, and be right around decent as starters.

... It's kind of odd that this ended up turning into a Hughes and Joba post--not my intentions when I first started...

Anyway, head over to Fangraphs and check out all the projections, it's definitely something worth perusing while you wait for real baseball to begin.

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