Much like American Idol, this process is winnowing the contestants down to one lucky candidate, much to the chagrin of some and the joy of others in Yankee Universe. Who will it be? It looks as if the votes have been tallied and an announcement is forthcoming. However the derby unfolds, there will be a clear cut winner, but some others will go on to have impressive careers. Now, it's up to you, Joe Girardi. Let's meet our five finalists.
Phil Hughes - Once the most highly touted prospect in the Yankee organization, if not all of baseball, this fireballer out of Southern California has had his series of ups and downs at the big league level, including freak injuries, bigger names and contracts ahead of him in the rotation, discovering himself as a dominant setup man to Mariano Rivera, only to come unraveled under the bright lights of last season's postseason spotlight. With all of that being said, he is only 23 years of age, is entering his third Major League season, and has the physical and mental makeup to be a dominant starter at the Major League level. The Yankees refused to part with him in a deal for Johan Santana, and have high hopes that he could become a homegrown ace. So far this spring, he hasn't wowed the judges, but his solid, steady performances have not lost him the job either.
Odds: 3-1
Joba Chamberlain - Ah, Joba. What can be said, really, about this Nebraskan that hasn't already been said? Joba burst onto the scene in 2007 as a revelation out of the bullpen, fanning American League hitters at a staggering rate, while becoming the all important "bridge to Mariano", until the midges proved to be his undoing on a muggy October night in Cleveland. Since that point, he has been up and down for a myriad of reasons. Dubbed the "Joba Rules", the pitch count/innings limit that the Yankees placed on Chamberlain may have done more harm than good. For most of his career, he had been a starter, but when he arrived in the bigs, it was as a reliever, and he could let his 98 mph heater loose with reckless abandon, knowing that he wouldn't have to pitch more than one inning every other day. Following his initial success, the Yankees reverted to the original plan of having him start, but the Joba Rules prevented him from using his full arsenal. Speed was sacrificed in an attempt to increase duration. The results were mixed at best. Chamberlain did pitch progressively better last year in each round of the playoffs out of the bullpen, relegating an ineffective Hughes to 7th inning duty. Only 24, Joba may be best suited to be, dare we say, Mariano's heir apparent.
Odds: 7-1
Alfredo Aceves - Often overlooked, Aceves, plucked from the Mexican League, has been quietly effective for the Yankees in any role they have asked him to play. He has been a long reliever, a set-up man, and a spot starter. He has gone under the radar, and many Yankee fans will remember him from his spot start last July 22nd in Minnesota, which got off to a promising start for three innings, only to see the roof cave in as he could not get out of the fourth inning. Does he have the durability to last as a starter? That is the biggest mystery with Aceves. He mixes pitches and speeds well and could be a serviceable fifth starter, assuming he can pitch into the sixth with any regularity. This spring, until his last outing, he had been pitching very effectively, but the fact that the Yankees, seemingly, have bigger plans for Hughes and Chamberlain, and this could mean that Aceves will become part of a very effective bullpen, one that could be the best in the game. Another factor working against Alfredo? He has minor league options left, and could be sent down to Scranton to start every fifth day, ready to be called up in the event of an injury.
Odds: 15-1
Sergio Mitre - Everybody's favorite whipping boy is back for more. Last season, Mitre, fresh off Tommy John surgery, was, to be blunt, not good. Pitching to a 6.79 ERA and a WHIP of 1.63, it's a wonder he won three games, while only losing three. The Yankees did score runs for him, so he was lucky to have not put up worse numbers. However, Mitre has always had talent, and is now two years removed from TJ surgery, which is, as is the belief, when pitchers are back at full strength. Sergio has pitched well this spring, but he may be auditioning for a starting job with another club, as his relatively low salary of $850,000 may make him attractive to a frugal team in need of starting pitching, like the Nationals. If he does stick with the Yankees, he looks to be in the bullpen.
Odds: 25-1
Chad Gaudin - The much-travelled Gaudin was decent during his brief tenure with the Yankees. 34 strikeouts as compared to 20 walks in 42 innings. Nothing spectacular, but this is, after all, a competition for the fifth starter spot behind, arguably, the best 1-4 in the game. With that being said, Joe Girardi used Gaudin in one postseason game last season, with him being the only man left in the bullpen during two marathon games. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, although Mitre didn't even make the postseason roster last year. This spring, Gaudin has been abysmal, with an 8.68 ERA in 9 1/3 innings, and, compounding Chad's misery, his $2.95 million contract is not guaranteed. If the Yankees, therefore release him, they would only owe him $737,500. Now he's been placed on waivers. Chad, get your suitcase ready. In the suddenly budget-conscience Yankee world, your ineffectiveness coupled with a low waiver fee for parting ways, you may soon need that Samsonite.
Odds: 100-1
From my perspective, I would go with Joba. Give him a shot with the training wheels off, and see what he can do. I do think that he is a better fit mentally for the bullpen, where over-thinking each pitch is not an issue, but maybe he could prove me wrong. With a rotation this good, there shouldn't be pressure on him, but he has proven that he can be influenced by outside factors. Hughes is probably the best fit for the staff, and Joba ideal to setup Mo, but, with the looming "Hughes Rules", maybe reversing that course could limit Hughes' workload while proving the Joba Rules to not just be Idol chatter.
-John McLaughlin
