Better Know a Prospect Countdown: 20 - 11

Before delving into my constantly evolving (and therefore somewhat arbitrary) rankings, I felt it would be prudent to provide a few token honorable mentions:

Zoilo Almonte has all the makings of a league-average corner outfielder. He's a switch hitter with five average or so tools (and increasing productivity against southpaws), and he could probably fake center field in a pinch without embarrassing himself terribly. The shockingly still only 22-year-old Jairo Heredia is perpetually a healthy year away from rocketing up the list, featuring above-average command and control on three potentially average offerings and fairly sound mechanics. Graham Stoneburner was featured prominently on this list last year, but injuries and slipping effectiveness revealed some nicks in the bedrock in what most would consider a low-risk, low-reward type prospect. David Adams, despite his injuries, continues to impress me with a fine approach at the plate, plus bat speed, and surprisingly strong defense at the keystone. At nearly 25, however, it is difficult to be ambitious with a player that has lost nearly a year of development ... with all of 173 PA above High-A. I really wanted to put Isaias Tejeda on the list, but he is simply too much of an unknown commodity for me to feel comfortable doing so. He is incredibly raw in all facets of the game, but he has above-average contact skills and athleticism, and that in and of itself is a sound foundation to build upon. And finally, Brandon Laird has made himself into a fine defender at third (and a passable defender in the other corners), which sounds appealing when taken in conjunction with his above-average power. His contact issues and lack of discipline, however, may limit him to a platoon role going forward.

Without further ado, I present the first installment of my top-20 prospects.

- 20 -
Greg Bird, C, 19
Acquired: 2011 Draft, 5th Round

This selection is entirely predicated upon scouting reports and amateur competition, as Bird's professional debut was limited to thirteen plate appearances in rookie ball. While that should be an important consideration, I cannot help but feel that I may not have been ambitious enough with the powerful left-handed hitter. Bird, the recipient of a $1.1 MM bonus this past summer, has smooth swing mechanics, raw power to all fields, and demonstrably solid in-game power to right-field. He generates above-average bat speed and a fair bit of backspin on the ball, and Yankee Stadium is always the ideal environment for such a hitter. The non-obvious caveat here is that Bird, like Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez before him, does not appear likely to stick behind the dish. However, I would argue that his issue is not a lack of athleticism, but rather size (in general) and rawness. That being said, I do believe that he is athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, where the demands on his bat (which I do not anticipate to be an issue) would be slightly less than those at first base.

- 19 -
Matthew Duran, 3B, 18
Acquired: 2011 Draft, 4th Round

Duran's case is somewhat similar to that of Bird, in that there is a great deal of projection involved. Both have the makings of pure power hitters, neither seems destined to remain at their drafted position, and the terms 'hard worker' and 'gym rat' have been applied to both. The key difference, assuming that the gap between numbers nineteen and twenty is really a difference, is that Duran is a bit more polished at the plate, with a bit more contact and power ability. Duran has shown in-game power to all fields, as well. He raked in 96 rookie ball plate appearance, slashing .301/.365/.506 with 6 2B and 3 HR - a small sample size, to be sure, but impressive nonetheless. Unlike Cave, Duran does not appear to have much of a chance to contribute on defense, with few having faith that he is not a certain first baseman. His work ethic, however, should give him a fighting chance to be a non-butcher at the hot corner ... at least for a few years.

- 18 -
Nik Turley, LHP, 22
Acquired: 2008 Draft, 50th Round

Turley may have the least impressive stuff of any of the pitchers on this list, but a far argument could be made that he may well have the lowest beta of the bunch. The physically imposing southpaw is listed at 6'6" and 230 lb, yet he deals mainly in deception and command, working off of a two-seamer topping out around 91 or 92 on his best days. A high-70s, low-80s change and a big, loopy curveball (his best offering) round out his arsenal, which he wields with remarkable command and control. Unlike most other veritable giants lumbering about the mound, Turley has the ability to maintain his mechanics and stay on top of the ball, allowing him to repeat his delivery and garner plenty of groundballs. His ceiling is likely limited to that of a third starter, but he seems a safe bet to be a contributor in a big league rotation (although safe is a relative term in prospecting).

- 17 -
Ramon Flores, OF, 20
Acquired: 2008 International Free Agent

Any analysis of Flores requires a fair bit of consternation on his ability to rise above the tweener label. While the formerly diminutive corner outfielder has grown quite a bit over the past few seasons (from roughly 5'10" and 150 pounds to 6'1" and closer to 200), his tools have remained relatively stable - above-average contact skills, strikezone judgment, and plate discipline, average-ish power, speed, and defense. He may well be the least exciting prospect on this list, yet it is not difficult to foresee him having the longest career of any Yankees farmhand. I believe comps can be misleading (and lazy) ... but I think a glance at the career of David DeJesus is a reasonable comparison for the type of player Flores can become.

- 16 -
Cito Culver, SS, 19
Acquired: 2010 Draft, 1st Round

Culver strikes me as the prototypical under-the-radar prospect that is ultimately far more impressive than most anyone realizes. As the second-youngest regular in New York-Penn League, Culver improved his walk and strikeout rates, showcased smoother actions and a surer arm in the field, and showed a smarter, more aggressive approach on the bases in comparison to his short-season debut. He is unlikely to offer much in the way of power, nor will he threaten for a batting title or steal more than fifteen to twenty bases - a decidedly unsexy offensive package, in short. However, he seems all but a lock to stick at shortstop, where he projects to provide above-average defense with slightly above-average offense for the position.

- 15 -
Ravel Santana, CF, 19
Acquired: 2008 International Free Agent

For all the puffery regarding placement on this list that will be found elsewhere, it is Ravel Santana that tossed the largest monkey wrench into my machinations. Santana is a true five-tool prospect, with above-average speed, range, and arm strength, potentially above-average power, and average contact skills. He has showcased fine plate discipline and strikezone judgment since his professional debut in 2009, and he has obliterated the competition in both the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League over the past two years. The caveat here is that Santana suffered a gruesome injury late last summer, breaking his ankle in two places and tearing multiple ligaments. Such an injury could have any number of long-term ramifications, both at the plate and in the field, and it is difficult to know if Santana will ever truly return to one-hundred percent. For all of this, he makes the cut ... and has the largest beta of any prospect mentioned herein.

- 14 -
Adam Warren, SP, 24
Acquired: 2009 Draft, 4th Round

I am far less bullish on Warren than I was at this time last season, on the heels of his regressing across the board while spending the entirety of 2011 in Triple-A. Warren lost nearly 2 K/9 (22.3% to 17.1% K), his groundball rate plummeted from an above-average 54% to a below-average 39%., and he added nearly a walk per inning. All told, his numbers were far from poor, but they remained wholly uninspiring. The silver lining with Warren is that his slider improved dramatically, with many scouts believing it to be a true swing-and-miss offering. The aforementioned strikeout rates do not match such a narrative, but Warren is relatively new to the world of the slider, and he is not terribly far removed from some fantastic numbers. His command and control remain positives, and I still view him as a potential three or four in a strong rotation.

- 13 -
Slade Heathcott, CF, 21
Acquired: 2009 Draft, 1st Round

It may be a bit misleading to say that Heathcott has played below his tools thus far, but his lack of consistency and results is at best bewildering. Heathcott and Ravel Santana are essentially two peas in a pod tools-wise (though Santana has more present power), with both facing disconcerting paths through the minors. The 2009 first-rounder lost yet another large chunk of development to left-shoulder surgery, which may well affect his ability to tap into his power potential in addition to the obvious issues with arm strength and accuracy. Moreover, the attitude issues that were discussed ad nauseum at the time Heathcott was drafted came to the surface a bit in 2011, when the Yankees prospect sparked a bench-clearing brawl. This ranking may appear a bit bearish, considering his jaw-dropping tools, but I consider it rather bullish when taken hand-in-hand with his injuries and merely solid production in a second tour through Charleston. I remain a believer, and I feel that this may be the most important year in Heathcott's development.

- 12 -
Austin Romine, C, 23
Acquired: 2007 Draft, 2nd Round

I cannot think of a prospect with respect to whom I have been more fickle than Romine. I have alternatively praised and doubted his bat and glove, and my view on him has ranged from back-up to solid regular to borderline All-Star. Much of the blame for this lay at the feet of the scouting reports raving about his physical tools, particularly behind the plate, but I would be remiss to suggest that my own lying eyes haven't played a role. Romine simply does not have the look (at face value) of a first division regular at this juncture, failing to put his admittedly strong tools on display with any semblance of consistency. Prospecting is an incredibly subjective balancing test, and I am finding it more and more difficult to rectify Romine's tools with his middling production. Romine did improve his walk and strikeout rates in his second go-round in Double-A, and he was probably hindered by being stuck in Double-A for almost the entirety of 2011 due to the team's stubbornness in promoting Montero to the show ... but I want and need to say more to view him as more than a potentially average-ish backstop.

- 11 -
David Phelps, SP, 25
Acquired: 2008 Draft, 14th Round

Shoulder tendinitis likely robbed Phelps of the opportunity to make it to the Bronx this past season, and may have sealed his fate as future trade fodder for the Yankees. Pessimism aside, Phelps had a fine 2011 season, showcasing above-average command and control of four roughly average offerings, including a fastball that sits around 92 MPH - e.g. the fringe third/solid fourth starter starter kit. The shoulder ailment is somewhat disconcerting, particularly when discussing a prospect that will be 26 when the postseason kicks off, but Phelps returned to Scranton without really missing a beat, then turned in a strong month in the Arizona Fall League. Should calamity strike the rotation, Phelps will be the first reinforcement from the farm - and I think he could perform quite well as soon as April. And if you squint really hard, you can still see seventy-five percent of Mike Mussina.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Angelo Gumbs, Your 2012 Breakout Prospect

This entry was posted in part on The Yankee Analysts.

Prospects with flashy tools and unparalleled athleticism often find themselves on the fast track into my heart. Those that are able to couple such glamor with results and other positive indicators are enough to make me swoon. Angelo Gumbs is such a prospect, and I would not be surprised to see him garnering praise this time next year a la Mason Williams … who may well be, dare I say, a slightly less athletic, less powerful version of Gumbs.

At face value, Gumbs’ 2011 production may be categorized as somewhat lacking. In prospecting, though, one must always dig deeper. The future center fielder was the youngest regular in the New York-Penn League this past season, checking in as nearly two months younger than Cito Culver (the second youngest). It’s also worth noting that he is nearly fourteen months younger than Williams – and this, at an age where physical and emotional maturity is of the utmost importance. In terms of tools, Gumbs has plus speed, plus bat speed, plus range at second (and likely plus-plus range in center), solid arm strength, and (possibly) future average power. He has a larger frame and more physicality than either Culver or Williams, and more natural loft in his swing (which often portends over-the-fence power). While he may not hit more than 10 or 15 home runs a year, he would not need to to have a ton of value.

As a little nota bene – I do think he has the tools to stay at second base, where he could likewise be a tremendous player.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Scattered Thoughts on #MysteryTeam

This post is being syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.
Claiming that Twitter has changed the landscape of sports reporting and journalism has become one of the more cliché statements of the past calendar year or so. In fact, it has become so cliché that referring to it as cliché is, in fact, cliché. Or something like that.

That being said, the ubiquitousness of Twitter cannot be overstated. After all, it was only a shade over two months ago that this happened:

In essence, Twitter has become the go-to source for breaking news, for all parties concerned - fans, journalists, professional athletes, and front office personnel utilize the 140-characters to garner as much information as possible, choosing the jumble of text and abbreviations over the larger bodies of analysis to which they link. The social networking giant has, in short, become the place for sports analysis, prognostication, rumors, and reporting. It is expected to be omnipotent, and it oftentimes is just that. Recently, however, #MysteryTeam has come to represent not only a veritable joie de vivre, but a somewhat frustrating outlier.

The #MysteryTeam phenomenon began, at least in a practical sense, with the Phillies signing of Clifton Phifer Lee. As late as Thanksgiving of 2010, most everyone 'in the know' was certain that Lee would be signing on the dotted line with either the Yankees or the Rangers. Some writers alluded to a 'mystery team' throwing a monkey wrench into the operation, yet it seems inevitable that one of the 2010 ALCS teams would win the bidding. As Yankees and Rangers fans remember, it was roughly three weeks later that Lee was hamming it up in front of cameras at his introductory press conference ... as a Phillie.

Throughout this past season, it seemed as if every rumor was sprinkled with allusions to a 'mystery team' pursuing trade deadline targets, or planning their off-season around Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, or the possibly opted-out CC Sabathia (some in a truthful sense, but most in jest). Over these past two months, the allusions to a 'mystery team' have evolved (or devolved) into #MysteryTeam being added into a substantial percentage of all rumblings and grumblings. And for all the prognostications about payroll flexibility, likely landing spots, and the like ... #MysteryTeam won out with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and, most recently, Yoenis Céspedes. Jorge Soler, perhaps the last remaining prize on the market, has been linked to the Cubs, Yankees, Marlins, and, among others, #MysteryTeam.

What does this all mean? To be perfectly frank, I'm not quite sure it means anything at all. The likeliest lesson to be learned is that the leakiness of front offices has not quite kept pace with the insatiable appetite of the fans and media, and that the news breaking abilities of Twitter are as dependent on such leaks as any other medium - it's simply instantaneous. This 'phenomenon' may merely be a product of players being more willing to follow dollars, or more willing to give 'home town' discounts. It may be a result of more teams being willing to enter the fray, and thus impeding the ability of journalists to stakeout the usual suspects.

Or it may just be nothing more than a joke transcended into news, albeit a far more prescient joke than most.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

In Defense of a Straight Salary Dump

The following is being syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

It seems all but inevitable that A.J. Burnett will be toeing the rubber in PNC Park come April, and my feelings are surprisingly mixed on the subject. While I do genuinely believe that he may be the best option of the fifth starter triumvirate (mostly due to the higher beta of Phil Hughes and the blase nature of Freddy Garcia), I cannot help but feel that Burnett's quirkiness, the minor spats with Girardi and Rothschild, and the endless trade speculation will result in nothing short of distractions, if not genuine dissension. It is always a thrill to see Burnett fire off a 96 MPH heater followed by a knee-buckling curve with startling command, but those instances have come fewer and further between ... and most memories of Burnett revolve around his confrontations with the coaching staff (both on the mound and in the dugout) and meltdowns that generally culminate in towering home runs. The sort of promise that Burnett offers, in short, is that which we may drool over with a starting pitcher in his early 20s, hoping and praying that he can get his head on straight - at 35, I doubt even the most unabashed optimist would cross his fingers for Burnett.

In dealing Burnett, Brian Cashman et al would spare the team, the fans, and the brass of one of the most distracting Yankees (non-Rodriguez division) in recent memory. Such a distraction can be acceptable, as is/was the case with Rodriguez, where production is a guarantee ... yet Burnett's replacement-level adventures in 2010 and 2011 cannot be obscured by his surprisingly decent peripherals where $33 MM and consistent inconsistency are ubiquitous. And for this - for all of this - I do believe that it is time that A.J. Burnett is shown the door. At this juncture, it does appear that the only questions involve the return and the savings (which may as well be a single issue). To me, Burnett represents a sunk cost, and any money that Cashman can recoup for the team's coffers is a veritable bonus. The likelihood of Burnett rebounding in pitcher-friendly PNC Park is astronomical, particularly with the departures of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the NL Central, but that does not somehow improve Burnett's stock as a pitcher - and yes, this is my likely futile attempt to stem any hindsight-driven lamentations that would stem from a 2009-ish line with the Pirates.

None of this is to say that the Yankees should not attempt to extract something of value from the Pirates. Garrett Jones seems like a safer and smarter bet than Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon, or Hideki Matsui, and his arbitration request checked in at $2.5 MM (right in-line with what some expect one of those three to command). Michael Eder penned an excellent write-up on Jones yesterday, and I suggest you check it out. Should Jones not be an option (which I don't think he is unless the Yankees pick up all $33 MM or add something of at least minor value to the deal), a lottery ticket type prospect would be very appealing. To be perfectly frank, I would settle for a low-risk, moderate reward minor leaguer like Justin Wilson, who appears destined for a fine career as a lefty specialist. With an organization as deep as the Pirates, there exists an almost limitless supply of both gambles and Justin Wilsons, and I am quite sure that Cashman will do his due diligence.

With all that being said, however, my endorsement of a straight salary dump stands. This may not be the most classical sort of 'addition by subtraction,' but it represents a clear-cut 'yes' decision insofar as the roster is concerned.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Polishing a Turd with Raul, Johnny, and Hideki

The following post is being syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

There has been much ado about the Yankees designated hitter situation yesterday, with Buster Olney tweeting that the team was "in position to add" one of Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon, or Hideki Matsui within a week. Ken Rosenthal stoked the coals a bit (or, perhaps, took a book of matches from 7-Eleven), adding that the team was in "serious discussions" with Ibanez. Rosenthal further added that Ibanez was willing to take a discount to play in the Bronx, though I am unsure that he is in a position to be terribly picky regardless. Many would argue that far too much ink and effort has been expended on behalf of Messrs Ibanez, Damon, and Matsui, and that may be true ... but if a move is truly forthcoming, it makes sense to look for a silver lining and preempt at least a bit of the inevitable gruff.

Ibanez managed a slightly above-average 101 wRC+ against righties last season, batting .256/.307/.440 with 16 HR in 437 PA. While that may be below even the marginal standard set by Posada in 2011 (.269/.348/.466 with 14 HR in 316 PA), it is worth noting that Ibanez's numbers in lefty-friendly Citizens Bank Park were solid - a .278/.316/.516 slash line with 15 HR in only 273 AB is quite easy on the eyes. While Yankee Stadium's right-center isn't quite as appetizing as Citizens Bank's, it does seem like Ibanez would make fine use of the short porch without sacrificing too much elsewhere. This is all guesswork, to be sure, but Ibanez's power hasn't slipped all that much. And, if optimism is to rule the day, might I suggest that a rebound from his career-low BB% is well within the realm of possibility?

At face value, Johnny Damon appears to be the best option for the Yankees. He was able to eke out a reasonable 109 wRC+ while playing half of his games in an extreme pitcher's park, on the strength of a .261/.326/.418 line with nineteen steals (in twenty-five attempts). Damon's 99 wRC+ against righties may not instill a great deal of confidence, though, and the former Yankee has not displayed much of a platoon split in recent years. While that may normally be a positive, it doesn't really help the Yankees at this juncture. However, a bit of polishing reveals that Damon did quite well away from the Trop, batting .280/.345/.463 with 10 HR in 296 AB. An optimist should also note that Damon has raked to the tune of .270/.370/.524 and 19 HR in 311 AB in New Yankee Stadium. He also survived 84 innings in LF last year ... so, there's that.

Matsui, sadly, featured a curious reverse platoon split in 2011, with a solid 118 wRC+ against southpaws and a decidedly ugly 82 wRC+ figure against righties. He did manage a 137 wRC+ and 14 round-trippers against righties in 2010, which is more in-line with expectations, and, like Damon, he enjoys hitting in NYS (.268/.353/.485 with 17 HR in 299 AB). Additionally, on the heels of a late-July Godzilla sighting in the Bronx (including a 5-for-5 game on 24 July), Matsui managed a respectable .289/.345/.414 over the last third of the season. Could the short porch entice an awe-inspiring swan song? Even a pragmatist would say ... maybe.

While none of these players met the Posadian baseline set in 2011, it does stand to reason that all could enjoy a bit of a rebound in Yankee Stadium - particularly if platooned properly. Ibanez's righty killing (flicking? pinching?) may be a bit more appealing, particularly with Jones likely to do the heavy-lifting against lefties, but Damon and Matsui (and most any lefty) would benefit from the ubiquitously mentioned short porch. This may not be an ideal set of candidates by even the most flexible stretch of the imagination, but it would be somewhat inane to ignore the potential for a reasonable bit of success here.

Besides, with Spring Training right around the corner, shouldn't optimism be fostered?

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Bill Hall, and the (Not So) Super-Utility Bargain Bin

This post is syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

With the hot stove dwindling just below a simmer, yesterday saw Ken Rosenthal "break" a story with respect to the Yankees' interest in ... Bill Hall. This is indicative of, at the very least, Cashman's continued interest in having a veteran presence to spell Alex Rodriguez. A more optimistic and/or pessimistic view may be that the team is looking to send Eduardo Nunez packing - be it to Scranton to work on his ability to be the shortstop of the future, or to another team ... with the reader determining which version is the better-case scenario. Regardless of your preference, it seems unlikely that the team will do anything other than supplement their bench with such a signing. While none of this is particularly exciting, perusing the list of remaining free agent infielders should be a bit more than an exercise in futility ... so, there's that.

Bill Hall

The method to this madness, Hall "batted" .211/.261/.314, good for a 55 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR, for the Astros and Giants in 2011 on the heels of a solid 2010 with the Red Sox (.247/.316/.456, 107 wRC+). His defensive metrics range from passable to horrific, albeit in small sample sizes at every position but catcher, with 3B being his best position ... and one that he did not play in 2011. At 32, he's a relatively known commodity, in that he's consistently inconsistent. His ability to man the outfield in a pinch does add some value.

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Better Know a Prospect: Jose Campos

The following is being syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

On the heels of what may well be the most intriguing deal of the off-season, the acquisition of Jose Campos has been somewhat lost in the ephemera. This is certainly somewhat justifiable, as Jesus Montero has been the Yankees top prospect for the past few seasons, and Michael Pineda represents the veritable white whale to follow CC Sabathia in the Yankees rotation (and, interestingly enough, has been labeled as a potential right-handed doppelganger of the ace). Both players are likely to have enormous impacts on the respective fates of the Mariners and Yankees, for better or worse … where Campos is unlikely to even reach the Majors prior to 2014. That being said, the inclusion of Campos may well be the factor that swings the balance in favor of Cashman and company.

Signed out of Venezuela three years ago today, the 19-year-old Campos made his stateside debut in the short season Northwest League in 2011. The 6’4″, 195 lb right-hander paced the NWL in strikeouts, while leading all starters in K/BB (6.54) and ranking third in ERA (2.32) and K/9 (9.4). This is made all the more impressive by Campos’ status as the fourth-youngest pitcher in the league.

Campos works with a fairly standard three-pitch repertoire at this point – a four-seamer, a curveball, and a change-up. At this juncture, Campos’ fastball is his bread-and-butter. It sits between 92 and 95 MPH, occasionally touching 98, and it features excellent late life. It is made all the more effective by his ability to consistently command the pitch, painting the corners at will. Campos’ curve has shown flashes of being an average to above-average offering, though the consistency of its break is far outpaced by his ability to command the pitch (which is less of an issue than the opposite, in the minds of many). At its best, the curve is a true power pitch with fantastic movement … and Campos has plenty of time to improve. Campos’ change has improved by leaps and bounds since his signing, but it shares the same issues of inconsistency as his curve. That he can command it well at only 19 is impressive, to be sure, and, again, there isn’t much of a rush. It is also worth noting that many scouts have praised his mechanics, noting that he was very willing to listen to coaching with the Mariners in cleaning up his delivery. This, taken in conjunction with his build, should be paramount in his durability.

As it stands, there is precious little information beyond scouting reports and 81 IP in the United States. The consensus, based upon said reports and statistics, is that Campos profiles as a third starter with the potential for much more – a consensus that I believe to be quite fair, though Campos’ full-season debut with Low-A Charleston will be very telling in this regard. For the time being, Campos should slot in behind Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances as the third-best pitching prospect in the system (no small feat), while joining Dante Bichette, Jr. and Mason Williams on what may be the most exciting team in the Yankees organization.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Whither the Fifth Starter?

This post is semi-syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

I cannot fathom a scenario in which A.J. Burnett is a Yankee come the spring … a palpable scenario, at least. Over the past two seasons, a total of eighty-six starting pitchers have tossed at least 300 IP. Of those, Burnett ranks 85th in ERA, 84th in FIP, and 69th in xFIP (progress!). The pseudo-heroics of the 2009 World Series are a distant memory at this point in time, and his "electric stuff" and "potential" would be more impressive if he was 25 instead of 35.

Why, then, would any other team take him? He has demonstrated the ability to remain durable over the last several seasons, and he can likely be had for pennies on the dollar ... in a market where Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang were signed for two years and eight figures. Additionally, Derek Lowe was moved for a fringe prospect and roughly $5 MM in savings. Carlos Zambrano was moved for a solid back of the rotation type and a bit of salary relief. This, at the very last, tells us that Burnett is movable – and not necessarily at the rate of a true sunk cost.

The real issue should be the roles of Garcia and Hughes. At this juncture, I’d prefer to see Garcia starting. While his upside is certainly limited, I believe a reasonable baseline would see him as a fine fifth starter. I don’t see much of a deviation, either, barring injury. That sort of dependability is worth quite a bit more than most realize, and it is a welcome addition to any rotation.

What of Hughes, then? I would like to see him building up arm strength in the minors. He has certainly had success at every level, but it’s worth noting that he has very few innings in the upper minutes. It’s a good venue for him to refine his curve and command, and it would allow him to step into the rotation in the event of an injury or ineffectiveness. I suspect that this will not be the case, and that Spring Training will award him every opportunity to join the rotation ... or end up in the bullpen. In my mind, though, that would be a mistake.

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Kuroda Inked to One-Year Deal

And with that, a potential weakness becomes a clear-cut strength:

01. Sabathia
02. Pineda
03. Kuroda
04. Nova
05. Garcia/Burnett/Hughes

I will do my best to touch on both Kuroda and Pineda sometime this weekend. For the time being, suffice it to say that I am a big fan of this signing ... and that I'm decidedly torn on the Montero-Pineda swap. Though, I believe it should be said that five years of a young pitcher with ace-potential seems like a solid return for Montero - particularly when Jose Campos has a ridiculous ceiling, to boot.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Better Know a Prospect: Ramon Flores

This post is syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

Tweener.

With the noteworthy exception of ‘bust,’ I am unsure that there is a more dreadful label in the scouting community than ‘tweener’ – particularly when such a label is affixed to a prospect within your team’s organization. It may not quite evoke the kiss of death as we associate with a bust, yet it is almost always offered hand-in-hand with terms like ‘fourth outfielder’ or ‘utility infielder’ or ‘spot starter.’ While it is a matter of fact that a team needs players to fill such roles, it serves as a sobering reminder that the minor leagues are not brimming with potential franchise players and staff anchors.

Tweener.

Ramon Flores, signed for $775,000 in 2008, has been pigeonholed as a tweener. Standing at 5’10″ and generously listed at between 150 and 160 lbs., the 19-year-old Dominican lacks the range to play center field, yet his power and potential for power (or lack thereof) profiles best up the middle. As it stands, projections for double-digit home runs may be considered overly ambitious. Flores’ above-average to plus arm strength and average range will certainly allow him to be a solid-average left or right fielder, yet he does not offer the premium speed nor the awe inspiring glovework of Brett Gardner to enable him to shatter the mold.

None of this is to say that Flores is a non-prospect, or anything of that nature. Rather, what Flores lacks in flash, he makes up for in strike zone judgment, plate discipline, and contact skills. In 2010, he led the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League in OBP, and placed second in BB and BB/K as one of the youngest regulars in the league. This past season, Flores placed in the top-ten in BB and BB/K in Low-A, despite checking-in at roughly three years younger than the average South Atlantic League Regular. Only a handful of regulars younger than Flores finished the season with a higher OBP – the list includes Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Jurickson Profar, none of whom should fall outside of the top thirty or so of most major prospect lists. It would be quite a stretch to suggest that Flores is within the same stratosphere of such prospects, to be sure, but it remains indicative of fine discipline and a discerning eye at the plate.

Flores’ contact skills and willingness to take a walk should also serve to mitigate his lack of power, and critiques of his power potential should not be taken as insinuations that pitchers can simply knock the bat out of his hands. The slight lefty utilizes the entire field, and his above-average bat speed allows him to drive the ball into the gaps, which should help him rack up extra-base hits. Aggressiveness and strong base-running instincts should translate into a surprising number of triples and stolen bases, as well.

To many, this may conjure images of Brett Gardner with twenty-pound ankle weights. For the less pessimistic observer, David DeJesus serves as an almost ideal comparison (or at least as ideal as a comp can be). The lack of over the fence power will likely leave much of Flores’ value tied into his BABIP, yet he should walk at an above-average rate while providing above-average glovework in either corner. In the best case scenario, Flores may well be an ideal two-hole bat.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Sickels Ranks the Yankees Top-20 Prospects

Happy New Year!

As always, I recommend you read the article in its entirety, as it contains a great deal of worthwhile, interesting commentary. For those of you who may be interesting, I'm currently cobbling together scouting reports and drafting my personal Top-30 - it should be complete sometime in mid-January. Without further ado:

01. Jesus Montero
02. Gary Sanchez
03. Manny Banuelos
04. Dellin Betances
05. Mason Williams
06. Dante Bichette, Jr.
07. David Phelps
08. Ravel Santana
09. Tyler Austin
10. Adam Warren
11. Austin Romine
12. J.R. Murphy
13. Cito Culver
14. Brett Marshall
15. Slade Heathcott
16. Angelo Gumbs
17. Nik Turley
18. Daniel Lopez
19. David Adams
20. Ramon Flores

I suspect my list will be fairly similar within the scope of the top handful or so, but the rest will likely be a jumbled mess ... comparatively speaking. I am quite surprised by the ambitious placements of David Phelps and Tyler Austin; while I certainly agree with his commentary, I had previously seen the two ranked much farther down the list, if placing at all.

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Andruw Jones Re-Signs with the Yanks

The Fiscally Conservative Yankees

Over these past two months, countless Yankees fans - myself included - have lamented Cashman's apparent lack of activity within the free agent marketplace. C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, and Mark Buehrle have signed, with nary a murmur of genuine interest from the Yankees. Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt remain available, yet appear to be nothing more than a pipe dream. Beyond those five - all of which appear to be a fair upgrade over any number of the starters on the Yankees current payroll - it would seem that there isn't much to be excited about, regardless of the front office's plan of action (or lack thereof).

This begs a simple, yet important question: why? There are two legitimate answers to the question, I think, and I would argue that they are fairly well intertwined.

With respect to the five aforementioned starters, I think a reasonable argument can be crafted in favor of the Yankees disinterest. Wilson, for all of his success in 2010 and 2011, is 31 ... with two years as a starter on his resume. For that, he received a five year deal worth $75 MM - a figure which includes a hometown discount for the Angels. Does that represent a sound investment?

While I do buy into Darvish's potential, we should not forget that that's all we have to work off of - his potential. He has never pitched stateside, and, despite his dominance in the NPB, the historical NPB to MLB transition has been rocky at best. The issues of a different ball, a new culture, and starting every five days are very real, even for a starter of his caliber. Is that package worth a $100 MM or better investment? And, for comparison's sake, did Stephen Strasburg receive a $100 MM bonus? No.

Buehrle has been remarkably consistent for the past decade or so, but is he really worth $58 MM from his age-33 through 36 seasons? Further, consider that he may have cost the Yankees more, as New York state taxes are fairly costly, whereas Florida's are nonexistent.

As for Oswalt and Kuroda, remember that both are older (34 and 36, respectively), and neither have pitched outside of the National League. Oswalt is also coming off of some fairly disconcerting back issues, and Kuroda is only a few months removed from expressing an unwillingness to pitch on the East Coast. There seems to be at least a bit of risk, even on a one-year deal.

Perhaps I am lying to myself, or even sipping the Cashman Kool-Aid. After all, I have argued for all five being a worthwhile pursuit for the Yankees, and I am somewhat reneging on previous statements. However, considering the risks involved, a large investment may well have resulted in a hindsight-fueled lambasting, not unlike those levied against A.J. Burnett and Alex Rodriguez.

The most pressing reasoning for the lack of spending, however, may well be something that has not been discussed here - the ramifications of crossing the luxury tax line under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Joel Sherman does a tremendous job of outlining what the Yankees have to gain by dipping under that line prior to 2014 here. For our purposes, the key passage is this:

As an organization, they are saying they are driven to have a payroll of $189 million or less in 2014 when that becomes the luxury tax threshold. Because the incentives that come via the new CBA are just too great for them to ignore.

For if they are at $189 million or less for the three seasons from 2014-16, they not only avoid paying one cent in luxury tax, which would rise to 50 percent for them as repeat offenders, but they also would get roughly $40 million in savings via the to-be-implemented market disqualification revenue sharing program. However, only teams under the luxury-tax threshold get reimbursed in this program, which is designed to prevent big markets such as Toronto and Washington from receiving revenue sharing dollars, which in turn will lower how much teams such as the Yanks pay (as long as they are under the threshold).

And even if they just went under $189 million for 2014 before going over again in 2015, the Yankees would receive serious benefits. They would get about $10 million in the revenue sharing disqualification program. Also, by simply going under the threshold once, the Yankees would go back to having a 17.5 percent tax rather than the 50 percent that begins in 2014 for them if they never go under. Keep in mind that since the luxury tax went to 40 percent for them in 2005, the Yankees have averaged paying $25.75 million in tax annually.

As per Cot's Contracts, the Yankees currently have $72.125 MM tied-up in Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia for the 2014 season. That leaves a bit over $116 MM to re-sign Granderson and Cano ... and fill an additional twenty roster slots.

With that in mind, the Yankees hesitance to give long-term deals to Wilson, Darvish, or Buehrle is understandable and wholly justified. Standing pat with Ivan Nova, and giving shots to David Phelps, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances, all of which would be making the minimum in 2014, in order to see if they could play a role in the team's future may well take precedence over a one-year flier on Kuroda or Oswalt. For the rotation, this may well be a transitional year. As disconcerting as that may be in terms of going all-in for the World Series ... it makes sense for the team's financial future.

The Yankees will be a competitive team this year. I'm loath to point to the team's record last year, or the successes of Garcia and Nova, or anything of the sort - but there is talent throughout the roster, and every team has its fair share of question marks. All things considered, this isn't rebuilding so much as it's ensuring a more stable future, both in terms of salary commitments and roster spots. As someone that enjoys watching a solid team year in and year out, I respect that.

In the end, it boils down to a rather simple terms: frustrating, yet understandable.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Yankees Contacted the Mets About Niese

Upon first hearing about Niese's availability, I was cautiously optimistic that the Yankees would, at the very least, inquire about the young lefty. While Niese may not offer the upside of Gio Gonzalez or the experience of John Danks, I believe that he is not too far removed from either, and is quite likely to come at the most reasonable cost.

For those of you unfamiliar with Niese, he has produced the following over his two full-ish seasons with the Mets:

2010 - 173.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 47.7 GB%
2011 - 157.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 51.5 GB%

Niese mixes five pitches - four-seam and two-seam fastballs (around 90 MPH), a cutter (his primary weapon against righties), a 12-to-6 curveball (his strikeout pitch), and a rarely utilized change-up. Though he is a bit more effective against left-handed batters, he does not show a worrisome platoon split, which speaks volumes about the effectiveness of his cutter.

There is a bit of downside with Niese, in that he has struggled to stay healthy over the past two seasons. Hamstring and oblique issues have hampered him intermittently and, while there hasn't been any permanent damage or throwing-arm related injuries, durability may very well be a concern. And, of course, the National League caveat applies.

Should the reports of the Mets asking price be accurate, I believe that the Yankees could and should make a strong push for Niese. The team does not necessarily have a chip comparable to Hammel, but I could see Hector Noesi as an appealing option to step into the Mets rotation in April ... and he may be preferable to someone like Hammel, due to his cost and team control. I suspect that this will garner a bit of grief, but I would be willing to offer Dellin Betances as the principal piece in the deal, which speaks more to my opinion of Niese than my valuation of Betances. Should the Mets desire a bat, I would seek to package Austin Romine, Eduardo Nunez, and one of David Adams, Corban Joseph, or Brandon Laird. Nunez is incredibly far removed from Reyes' stratosphere, but he and Romine would be able to step in all but immediately and fill very real holes on the Mets roster (and at a very affordable rate, which is an integral consideration).

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Yankees Win Bid for Hiroyuki Nakajima

There have been reports stating that Nakajima was hoping to land on the West Coast, and I suspect (though cannot confirm) that he would prefer a starting gig as he is currently in the prime of his career. As such, it will be interesting to see if he accepts the Yankees offer, whatever it may be, to serve as their primary utility infielder - it would not be unprecedented for Nakajima to spurn the Yankees and elect to return to Japan.

Last summer, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker and FanGraphs stated the following about Nakajima in a run through some Japanese prospects:

Nakajima gets my vote as Japan’s second best hitter, behind Aoki. Nakajima doesn’t quite match up with Aoki’s pure contact skill or plate discipline, but is still very good in both categories and adds a bit more gap power to the equation. Nakajima is a back-leg hitter, with a big stride that he will occasionally shorten up. On the turf, Nakajima plays a solid shortstop, among many good shortstops in his league.

In a lengthier follow-up, after Nakajima asked to be posted (and subsequently denied), Newman wrote about his glove:

Good glove, pretty good arm. I’ve seen some commentary speculating that he’s better suited to second base in MLB, but I don’t see why he shouldn’t get a chance to play shortstop. Nakajima has played his career on turf, in his home games at Seibu Dome and most of his road games, as all of the Pacific League teams have turf infields. The turf-grass adjustment was tough for Kazuo Matsui, but Tadahito Iguchi did fine so it can go either way.

And his bat:

Nakajima is a good contact hitter who uses the whole field. I see him as a line drive/gap hitter; in Japan he’s been around 20 hr and .500 slg for the last four years or so. He’s also gotten better at drawing walks over the last few years, but he’s still not great by American standards. Generally speaking, though, there are fewer walks and strikeouts in NPB. Like many Japanese NPB hitters, he has a complex swing, with a long stride and a lot of leg movement. I think he will shorten up his stride and cut down on his lower body movement in MLB, which will likely cost him some power.

Reports indicate that Nakajima is an above-average baserunner, and his numbers seem to bear that out (as well as much of Newman's scouting report).

Based upon the information on-hand, Nakajima does fit the profile of a solid utility infielder. I am a bit leery of the transition from the NPB to the MLB, particularly in cases where the player's numbers don't jump off the page, but the expectations seem reasonable. So long as the contract is reasonable, I think that Nakajima is a solid gamble.

On another note, I imagine this is indicative of the Yankees willingness to move Eduardo Nunez. His name has popped up in several rumors, and the rumor that he was the breaking point in the non-trade for Cliff Lee persists to this day. I suppose it may also mean the Yankees are going to allow him to play every day in Triple-A, but that would be somewhat unprecedented - particularly when the team could likely include him in a package to upgrade the rotation. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Yankees May Be Frontrunner for Cespedes

I find myself very torn on Cespedes.

The Yankees are lacking high-impact outfield prospects in the upper levels of the farm system, which could be an issue with Swisher (2012) and Granderson (2013) approaching free agency. Signing Cespedes would quash that issue immediately, albeit at a fairly high cost, while (possibly) allowing the Yankees to shop Swisher for help in the rotation. The latter, of course, assumes that Cespedes is ready for the Show ... which he very well may be. Based upon Cespedes' Cuban League statistics, ZiPS guru Dan Szymborski projects a .270/.331/.435 line, with 23 HR and 9 SB in 2012. I would take such production in a heartbeat.

It's also worth noting that the track record of Cuban position players is superior to their pitching brethren. Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, and Kendrys Morales (pre-injuries) have met expectations in recent memory, Tony Perez is in the Hall of Fame, and Tony Oliva has a fairly compelling argument, to boot.

Despite this, the risk is still obvious. Cespedes will command a fairly substantial contract and a spot on the 40-man roster, and he does not have any experience in the United States. In transitioning to Major League Baseball, he will also have to deal with language and cultural barriers. Considering that he will likely seek a guarantee to start in the Majors at some point in 2012 ... I would argue he's even more of a gamble than Yu Darvish.

In the end, I think Cespedes is a worthwhile gamble, particularly if he is willing to work his way from Double-A to the Majors. I would be hesitant to deal Swisher and open 2012 with Cespedes manning right field, but if the front office is confident in the Cuban wunderkind's ability to step into the Yankees line-up, I suppose I could be swayed.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

A Brief Blueprint for the Off-Season

Sign Mark Buehrle

Buehrle has started at least thirty games and tossed at least 201 IP in each of the last eleven seasons, and his ERA and FIP have been below-average exactly once in his career, way back in 2006. While he may not represent the "1B" to Sabathia's "1A" that many Yankees fans are clamoring for, such a pitcher does not exist on the market (and paying C.J. Wilson as if he is such a pitcher is foolhardy at best). Buehrle's consistency makes up for the modest upside, and I would have a great deal of faith in him as the Yankees Game 2 starter.

Sign Yu Darvish

You can find further thoughts on Darvish here. Suffice it to say that I believe in his potential, and that upside is worth the gamble, particularly when his posting fee would not count against the luxury tax. This assumes, of course, that Darvish is posted ... which is apparently fifty-fifty at this juncture.

Re-Sign Andruw Jones

Jones battered left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .286/.384/.540 slash line in 2011, good for a 151 wRC+, and he remains a solid defender in both left and right-field. In my mind, there isn't a better option on the market.

Trade A.J. Burnett

This is easier said than done, of course - but the Braves ability to unload Derek Lowe gives me the faintest glimmer of hope. Burnett has the look of a sunk cost at this juncture, and freeing up a roster spot and $6 MM or so (assuming the Yankees pick up around $10 MM per season) would be quite beneficial. If the Yankees can acquire a lottery ticket prospect along the way, that's just gravy.

Follow me on Twitter - @Domenic Lanza

Kevin Goldstein Ponders Cole Hamels

Yesterday, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus posted an endlessly intriguing and entirely speculative article on both BP and ESPN Insider - what would it take to pry Cole Hamels away from the Phillies?

Working with an unnamed MLB executive, Mr. Goldstein determined that the Phillies would, or perhaps should, look for a replacement in the rotation, bullpen help, insurance for the middle infield, and athletes with high upside. Mr. Goldstein then breaks down several potential offers from eight teams ... one of which is, of course, the New York Yankees. The content is insider-only, but the Yankees package is comprised of Manny Banuelos, Hector Noesi, Austin Romine, and Mason Williams.

First, allow me to say that I would accept that deal in a heartbeat were I in Cashman's shoes. I would help the players pack and drive them to the airport myself, then pat myself on the back for a job well-done.

That being said, however, I do feel that this deal is a bit ... light. Banuelos and Noesi could provide some immediate help in the rotation or bullpen, to be sure, but things get shaky beyond the two. Romine is fairly close to the Majors, but Ruiz is signed to a very team-friendly deal through the end of next season, and I'm just not too sure that the Phillies would jump on Romine as a key to a deal for Cole Hamels with that in mind, regardless of Romine's up and down 2011. Mason Williams is a stud prospect, and I think he'll make a few appearances on top-hundred lists - but he's several years away, and so much can go wrong in such a long period of time. Banuelos, Noesi, and Romine could help the team immediately, and Williams would be one of their top prospects ... but it seems too paltry, to me.

What, then, would I give up for Hamels? Or, perhaps more realistically, what do I think the Phillies would ask for? Considering Mr. Goldstein's very sensible criteria, I would think something like this could make such a deal happen - Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Romine, Eduardo Nunez, Corban Joseph, and Williams. Betances injects more upside into the deal, and he could likely step into the bullpen and dominate immediately. Nunez and Joseph provide insurance at SS and 2B, respectively. Nunez's shaky defense is certainly a hindrance, but the tools for success remain there.

Would I do that deal? It would be hard not to, in my mind. It's certainly a shot to the system, but Hamels is a legitimate ace - and he won't turn 28 until December. He's lefthanded, he induces a nice amount of ground balls, he strikes out nearly a batter an inning, and his walk rates are consistently above-average. If such a package could bring Hamels to New York with a long-term deal ... I don't think anyone in their right mind could say no.

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Oh Happy Day!

Freddy Garcia is a Type B Free Agent

What does this mean?

The Yankees may offer Freddy Garcia arbitration in an effort to retain him on a one-year deal for the 2012 season. Should Garcia decline, perhaps with hopes and dreams of one final long(ish) term deal to close out his career, the Yankees would receive a supplemental round draft pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft if and when he signed elsewhere. Unlike a Type A free agent, such as Rafael Soriano, the signing team would not lose a draft pick, meaning the market for Garcia's services isn't necessarily limited for fear of losing a first or second round pick.

Considering Garcia's relative health and league-average performance over the past two years, I see no reason for the Yankees to not offer the veteran junkballer arbitration. The worst-case scenario would be that he accepts, makes $6 MM or so, and garners consideration at the back-end of the rotation. With the uncertainty surrounding the rotation, that doesn't sound too bad at all.

And a tip of the hat to MLBTR.

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