Better Know a Prospect: Jose Campos

The following is being syndicated from The Yankee Analysts.

On the heels of what may well be the most intriguing deal of the off-season, the acquisition of Jose Campos has been somewhat lost in the ephemera. This is certainly somewhat justifiable, as Jesus Montero has been the Yankees top prospect for the past few seasons, and Michael Pineda represents the veritable white whale to follow CC Sabathia in the Yankees rotation (and, interestingly enough, has been labeled as a potential right-handed doppelganger of the ace). Both players are likely to have enormous impacts on the respective fates of the Mariners and Yankees, for better or worse … where Campos is unlikely to even reach the Majors prior to 2014. That being said, the inclusion of Campos may well be the factor that swings the balance in favor of Cashman and company.

Signed out of Venezuela three years ago today, the 19-year-old Campos made his stateside debut in the short season Northwest League in 2011. The 6’4″, 195 lb right-hander paced the NWL in strikeouts, while leading all starters in K/BB (6.54) and ranking third in ERA (2.32) and K/9 (9.4). This is made all the more impressive by Campos’ status as the fourth-youngest pitcher in the league.

Campos works with a fairly standard three-pitch repertoire at this point – a four-seamer, a curveball, and a change-up. At this juncture, Campos’ fastball is his bread-and-butter. It sits between 92 and 95 MPH, occasionally touching 98, and it features excellent late life. It is made all the more effective by his ability to consistently command the pitch, painting the corners at will. Campos’ curve has shown flashes of being an average to above-average offering, though the consistency of its break is far outpaced by his ability to command the pitch (which is less of an issue than the opposite, in the minds of many). At its best, the curve is a true power pitch with fantastic movement … and Campos has plenty of time to improve. Campos’ change has improved by leaps and bounds since his signing, but it shares the same issues of inconsistency as his curve. That he can command it well at only 19 is impressive, to be sure, and, again, there isn’t much of a rush. It is also worth noting that many scouts have praised his mechanics, noting that he was very willing to listen to coaching with the Mariners in cleaning up his delivery. This, taken in conjunction with his build, should be paramount in his durability.

As it stands, there is precious little information beyond scouting reports and 81 IP in the United States. The consensus, based upon said reports and statistics, is that Campos profiles as a third starter with the potential for much more – a consensus that I believe to be quite fair, though Campos’ full-season debut with Low-A Charleston will be very telling in this regard. For the time being, Campos should slot in behind Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances as the third-best pitching prospect in the system (no small feat), while joining Dante Bichette, Jr. and Mason Williams on what may be the most exciting team in the Yankees organization.

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More Trade Reactions and Analysis

Fangraphs says the Yankees did not pay retail for Pineda:

Pineda is the third quality young arm to get traded this winter, following the trades that shipped Gio Gonzalez to Washington and Mat Latos to Cincinnati. Given that both pitchers come with one fewer year of team control and lack Pineda’s dominating fastball, a strong case could be made that the Yankees new starter is the most valuable asset of the three guys that were moved. However, compared to the other two packages surrendered, the Yankees didn’t really pay much of a premium to get Pineda, and one could even make an argument that they gave up less value overall than what the Reds surrendered to get Latos.

Then there's this from Mark Simon:

In obtaining right-hander Michael Pineda, the Yankees got a pitcher who looked very promising early in the season, then statistically faded at the end of 2011.

Pineda was 8-6 with a 3.03 ERA prior to the All-Star break, 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA after the All-Star break. The primary culprit was his home run rate, which went from one allowed every 11.3 innings to one every 7.3 innings afterwards.

Pineda was also considerably better in Safeco Field, a pitcher-friendly park. He was 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and .182 opponents' batting average there last season, 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA and .234 opponents' batting average on the road.

Pineda’s fastball averaged nearly 95 mph, tied for the fifth-fastest average velocity among starting pitchers in the majors. Hitters missed on 20 percent of their swings against that pitch, also the fifth-best among starters.

That helped Pineda to 173 strikeouts, the most by a pitcher in his age 22 season or younger (in other words, for pitchers who were 22 before June 30 of that season) since Kerry Wood struck out 233 hitters in 1998.

It also helped Pineda hold right-handed hitters to a .184 batting average, the best of any pitcher who faced at least 200 right-handers last season.

Pineda made nine starts against the AL East last season and he got hit pretty hard, posting a 4.73 ERA and allowing eight home runs in 53 1/3 innings.

See, it's those things in bold that scare me about this deal..... Anyway, moving on...

Here's what Kieth Law said about the other major piece to the trade coming back to the Yanks, highly touted prospect Jose Campos:

Jose Campos is the lottery ticket in the deal, and could very well turn this deal into a steal for the Yankees four or five years down the road. He's an extreme strike-thrower with an above-average fastball that will touch 95, and a slider that shows above-average but isn't consistent yet. Campos needs to work on his changeup and has yet to pitch in a full-season league, so he's several years away from the majors. He's also young enough that the injury risk is still significant, and I'd like to see him get over his front side better as he finishes his delivery. But he won't turn 20 until July, and if he were in the draft this year he'd be a first-rounder, so for the Yanks it's almost like getting an extra draft pick in the deal. For some context on what Seattle gave up, he would have been No. 5 in my 2012 organizational ranks for the Mariners.

Law also gave the slight edge in the trade to Seattle.

On the other hand, Frank Piliere called it was a narrow win for the Yankees

Jayson Stark says the deal one of the most fascinating in years, and thought both teams won in the deal.

Kevin Goldstein also likes the deal for the both teams and called Cashman a ninja sever times on Twitter tonight. He also said there is no pitcher in the Yankees system with more upside than Pineda.

Speaking of Cashman, there was this interesting quote that came via Sweeney Murti: