Marchand: Wilson Won't Visit NY

From Andrew Marchand:

As we have reported on this site for weeks (months?), the Yankees are not that hot for C.J. Wilson. In fact, even though, his agent requested a trip to the Bronx, the Yankees said no.

He goes on to say that he puts the Yankees chances at getting Wilson at about 5% I'm starting to think he's right. For the Yankees to say no to a visit, they either want nothing to do with him, or, they want nothing to do with him at the current asking price. Either way, it does look like Wilson to the Yanks is highly unlikely.

Yanks Invite Wilson To New York

From Marc Carig:

Pleased with what he described as general manager Brian Cashman’s “aggressiveness,” C.J. Wilson’s representative said today the Yankees have extended an invitation to visit New York, where he would meet with some of the team’s top decision-makers.

Wilson’s agent Bob Garber, who met with Cashman at the general managers’ meetings, refused to divulge whether figures were exchanged. But he called the meeting productive.

“I told him where we were at, they understood, and want us to come out,” Garber said. “I think it’s a good fit. We have a lot of teams we have to narrow down. I think the Yankees are a team that we’ve narrowed down as a team we want to spend a little time with.”

...

“I think it was very productive and who wouldn’t really want a pitcher who has been to the last two World Series?” Garber said. “I think Brian is in a situation where he doesn’t want what happened to Cliff Lee to happen again.”

Garber also says in the article that there are six or seven teams that they're in "serious talks" with.

Scouts Say Buehrle's a Better Fit For Yanks Than Wilson

From Mark Feinsand:

C.J. Wilson is considered the best pitcher on the free agent market in most circles. Yet, when it comes to fitting inside the often hectic Yankees’ universe, several Major League talent evaluators believe Mark Buehrle might be the better fit.

“If you are looking for value, it’s Buehrle because the Yankees have CC Sabathia and aren’t looking for an ace,’’ an AL Central evaluator said of the 32-year-old Buehrle, who finished a four-year, $56 million deal with the White Sox this season.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has spoken briefly with representatives for Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson and Wilson, and plans to contact Jeff Berry, who represents Buehrle.

...

Three evaluators tabbed Buehrle over Wilson for the Yankees and two picked Wilson even though they admitted having questions whether the opinionated Wilson would be a good fit in New York.

“Stuff-wise, he is at 91 to 93. He has enough deception and just wild enough,’’ a veteran Wilson watcher said. “His stuff is more crisp than Buehrle’s.’’

I still like Wilson as the Yanks top FA pitching target. At least as far as American players go. Darvish, as I've said, is the wild card in all of this. The article even goes on to say that while the Yankees are showing interest in Wilson and Buehrle, their top priority may end up being Darvish.

Cashman Talks To Wilson's Agent & Some Info on Darvish

From George A. King III:

True to his word, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman reached out to C.J. Wilson’s agent yesterday.

“I would describe it as routine,” Cashman said of his talk with Bob Garber, Wilson’s representative.

...

And since Cashman said this week that even after retaining CC Sabathia that starting pitching remains a priority, it figures that Garber and the Yankees will continue talking.

King also mentions that the Yankees are monitoring Darvish, and are expected to take looks at Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt. (Earlier this week, it was reported that the Yankees did not have any interest in Oswalt, but this wouldn't exactly be the first false rumor we've heard.

Despite his poor October, I am in favor of signing Wilson. The bottom line is that since moving to the starting rotation in 2010 he's been one of the better pitchers in the AL, and if you can add him as a no. 2 behind CC for a reasonable contract the Yankees should do it.

Darvish is the wild card in all of this.

“He’s the real deal,” says ex-Yankee Darrell Rasner, who has spent the last three years pitching against Darvish for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in the Pacific League. “He’s the best pitcher there, in my opinion, and he’d do well in the States. He’s got a winning mentality.

“He seemed to toy with guys in Japan sometimes. When he needs to dial it up, he can really go after somebody with strikeout stuff. I’ve seen him add velocity late, get his fastball up to 96-plus (miles per hour) with guys in scoring position and strike out a couple of hitters.”

...

“The potential, it’s all there,” says Harold Reynolds, the former All-Star who is now an analyst for MLB Network and saw Darvish pitch in the WBC. “He can be a frontline starter and he’d have a lot of interest here.

“I’d be shocked if the Red Sox and the Yankees were not in it, particularly the Yankees,” Reynolds added. “You look at the Yankees, the state of their pitching. If he’s everything people say he is, and he lives up to it, he can be a dominating force in your rotation for five or six years.”

...

“I do think he’s coming,” said the executive, who has watched Darvish multiple times. “Because of the high-profile personnel that went there, and there’s not a lot of high-level pitching in this free-agent market. Maybe that encourages Darvish to make the move.”

But several baseball executives wondered if the Red Sox and Yankees’ struggles with recent Japanese imports — Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa — might scare off some suitors. Neither pitcher now seems worth their price tags — $103 million for Matsuzaka, more than $46 million for Igawa.

...one [MLB exec] says, “He’s better than Matsuzaka. His body is unique and he added some good weight over the last year (about 20 pounds to get to about 200 pounds). The talent level is very high-end.

He also has apparently signed-on with Arn Tellem--Hideki Matsui's agent--to deal with MLB if he does decide to leave Japan.

Cashman Calls Wilson "The Most Attractive Candidate"

From Chad Jennings:

Brian Cashman was just on the Dan Patrick Show, and he was asked whether C.J. Wilson is at the top of his offseason wish list.

“I’d say it’s fair to say C.J. Wilson is probably the best pitcher on the marketplace right now since Sabathia’s been taken out and retained here,” Cashman said. “I don’t think it’s a stretch to tell anybody that he’s the most attractive candidate.”

...

Cashman cautioned that putting Wilson at the top of the list is strictly because of performance and talent. It does not take into account the contract Wilson might be after.

“You have your priority list and how it looks,” Cashman said. “But then it gets rearranged by cost analysis.”

It's rare for Cashman to talk like that, but with this free agent class, he's really just stating the obvious.

Cashman also said in the interview that the Yankees are not interested in Albert Pujols. 

In our circumstances, our roster, he doesn’t fit… It’s not an efficient way to try to allocate your resources.”

Pros & Cons: C.J. Wilson v. Yu Darvish

C.J. Wilson
Pros

• Left-handed
• Strong performance in AL, in a hitter's park
• Limited wear and tear (less than 1300 IP in professional career)
• Above-average groundball and strikeout rates
• Improved across the board in second full season as a starter
• Above-average ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2010 and 2011
• Top-10 in AL in fWAR, bWAR, ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2011

Cons

• Will be 31 in November
• Only two full seasons as a starter limits the usefulness and overall reliability of the data
• Would cost a first-round draft pick to sign
  

Yu Darvish
Pros

• Far better NPB resume than previous imports, including Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, and Hiroki Kuroda (the most successful Japanese pitcher in MLB)
• Possibly the best pitcher in NPB history - career 1.99 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 3.75 K/BB
  
• International scouts grade his fastball and slider as plus pitches
• Only 25-years-old
• Very successful in World Baseball Classic
• Durable, with 200+ IP in four of last five years
• Simple, repeatable delivery
• Will not cost a draft pick; posting fee does not count against luxury tax
  

Cons

• Has logged nearly 1300 IP at age-25
• Potential transitioning issues - heavier ball with higher seams, pitching every fifth day instead of once a week, and higher level of competition (most compare NPB to AAA) in MLB
• General lack of success of Japanese players in MLB

In my mind, neither Wilson nor Darvish is a sure thing.

Though Wilson has been incredibly successful over these past two seasons, his resume is lacking otherwise (and his relief career was plagued by inconsistency). Hindsight bias aside, I do think he's a safer bet than A.J. Burnett ... but to what degree I am not quite sure.

Darvish's success in the NPB is simply jaw-dropping, on an entirely different level than any other pitcher we've ever seen. Unlike Matsuzaka and Igawa, it does seem like the only issue with Darvish's transition is the general malaise of prior imports, as opposed to questions regarding his stuff. That being said, the transition is far from simple and the degree to which others have failed is sometimes staggering.

In the end, I would prefer Yu Darvish by the slimmest of margins. I view him as a top-notch prospect with a bevy of experience, and the lesser hit to the luxury tax and ability to retain the first-round pick is quite important. Wilson's floor is higher than Darvish's, but his ceiling is equally lower - and he's not quite safe enough for me to not roll the dice.

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