Since I've started blogging I've always done a preview of the AL East and compared the top teams position by position. Although I included the Rays in this last year, I think I'm going to leave them out this time after a 2009 where they finished 19 games out of first place. This tends to stretch out for quite a bit so I'm starting it so early on purpose.
Obviously certain positions are unsettled and could remain so until Opening Day itself. So, I'll be leaving left field, third base, first base, the last two spots in the rotation, the bench, and the bullpen left undone until we know for sure how those position are going to look for both Boston and New York on Opening Day.
In the past I've had people tell me they like this series of posts and the predictions I make at the end of it have been pretty much spot on so I think you'll end up liking.
Showing posts with label Mike NYY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike NYY. Show all posts
Monday, December 21, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Mike's 2010 Offseason Plan
Every offseason, since I've started blogging I've made a long post on what I think the Yanks should do this offseason with all my suggested moves conveniently stuck in one place. I try and keep it pretty realistic, no 400 million dollar payroll, no Roy Halladay trade prosposals, etc. So, here's my two cents on what the Yankees need to do going forward.
1) Bring back Matsui on a one year deal
The World Series MVP will also probably win the Comeback Player of the Year award for the American League. Coming into the year, people were worried about his knees and the fact that he was incapable of playing the outfield. Well, that's turned out to be true. However, he's found a home in the DH spot and had a monster year with the bat. He put up a wOBA of .378 while remaining the classy professional he has always been. His year with the bat really shouldn't have been any surprise. His EQA's for the past three years have been .287, .271, and .293. All respectable numbers. As long as he stays at DH, his knee problems shouldn't be an issue and he should be back on a one year deal to help the Yanks defend their title.
2. Bring back Johnny Damon or sign Mike Cameron
Obviously, the Yankees are going to need a leftfielder for 2010 and neither Matt Holliday nor Jason Bay strike me as a good fit. Holliday stands to get a massive long term contract and I just don't think he's worth that kind of money. Nor do I think that so soon after signing Teixeira, they're ready to make a similar commitment. Bay has made the transition from being one of the most underrated players in baseball to being one of the most overrated in the past year or so and he also stands to get more money than he's really worth. Signing him would be a purely reactionary move to hurt the Red Sox, the kind of thing they need to stay away from.
My preference is to see Damon back in pinstripes for another year, maybe two. He's a clutch player who has an excellent reputation in the clubhouse. His defense is thoroughly unimpressive but he can flat out hit. If Boras is serious about getting his client a three or four year deal though, the Yanks are going to need to look elsewhere and the eternally underrated Mike Cameron could be the man for the job. He's not nearly as good as his competitors at the plate. However, he's still a fantastic centerfielder. According to WAR, he's been worth an average of 15.5 million dollars over the past three years, most because of his incredible defense. He's not going to command nearly that and an outfield of Gardner-Cameron-Swisher would save plenty of runs in the fielder.
3. Bring Back Andy Pettitte
This is an obvious move that all Yankees fans seem to agree on. He's a complete professional and is as reliable as any other pitcher you can find. Pettitte has topped 200 innings in every year since his injury plagued 2004, that's five straight seasons. Although we saw signs of decline last year in his lower GB% and his higher BB rate, he's still a quality pitcher. His tRA for the past three years have been 4.35, 4.42, and 4.69. All solid rates that anybody would happy to see from a third starter. If he decides he wants to come back, he won't go anywhere other than the Bronx and won't demand more than a one year deal. The only question is whether or not this is the year that he finally decides to retire. I'd be shocked if he did but its always a possibility. Andy's a a big game pitcher who will give you over 200 quality innings. For a one year deal worth around 12 million, you can' ask for much more than that. Yankees fans would welcome him back for another year.
4) Sign Justin Duchscherer
Its not a rumor we've heard at all but it still makes a world of sense for the Yankees to make a serious run at this guy. Of all the buy low, sell high candidates of this year, he has to be the most intriguing. Although plagued by injuries throughout his career, he's been as good as anybody in baseball at times. The 31 year old's stats are impressive, a career 3.14 ERA, a career 3.81 FIP, and a career 4.24 tRA. He's spent time both in the bullpen and the rotation, so if he doesn' make the rotation its an easy transition out to left field. The only question mark about him is whether or not he can stay on the mound and I think its worth the gamble of the relatively small contract he's going to command. If the Yanks get lucky, they'll have one of the best pitchers in baseball behind Sabathia and Burnett. If it doesn't work out, they're only going to lose a couple million. On paper it makes perfect sense. That said, Duscherer may be able to handle New York and I'd be surprised if he ever donned the pinstripes. Erik Bedard could be another free agent in the same mold who I wouldn't mind them taking a run at.
5) Bring Back Wang
Similar to Duscherer, Wang is a low risk, high reward option. In Wang's case though, the Yankees would be absolute fools to let him get away. It wasn't all that long ago that he was the anchor of their staff and people where arguing over whether he was truly an "ace" or not. Despite the low strikeout totals he put up fantastic numbers from 2005 through 2008. We all know how good this guy was and if they could add him to a 2010 rotation already featuring C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett it would be devestating for the rest of the American League. He has had injury problems, even if you ignore the freak accidents of the past two years or so. However, he's well worth the risk of 5 million dollars or so. Especially if Dr. James Andrews' latest prediction of an April return is accurate. Unless they decide to spend huge on Lackey or make a blockbuster trade for Halladay, the back of the rotation is going to be a little weak and they need as many high potential arms trying out for those last two spots as possible. Since his rookie season, he's been worth more than five million dollars every single year, with the exception of 2009. He's well worth the risk.
6) Sign Alroldis Chapman
Hardly a winter goes by without the Yankees making a splash and giving out a big contract. Though I don't believe any of the big ML free agents are good fits this year, I am confident that the Yanks are still going to flex their financial muscle. Their are no guarentees with Cuban pitchers, for every El Duque their is a Jose Contreras, but this guy seems like the real deal. He may not be ready for the major leagues yet but that's okay. The farm is looking a little weak right now. Behind Jesus Montero, nobody else in the higher levels really seems to show star potential. Sure, we have A-Jax who looks like he'll be a solid centerfielder one day and we have McAllister who could be a nice middle of the rotation starter. None of these guys really seem like big time difference makers though. Chapman and his high 90's fastball seem like just what the doctor ordered. This is an opportunity for the Yanks to take advantage of their deep pockets and keep him out of Boston.
7) Bring Back Eric Hinske
Eric Hinske was a nice addition to the bench early on when he was sent over by Pittsburgh. He gave us a little pop off the bench and was a useful guy to have. He can play all four corner spots and rest some of the guys that need the rest most. Not a great fielder but that's what Ramiro Pena is for. That extra power hitter on the bench can help win a couple extra games and keep the main guys rested. He certainly won't demand all that much and I assume he's going to want to stay in pinstripes after a World Championship. Its not a major need but I'd like to see Eric Hinske back with the Yankees for the 2010 campaign.
I think that all these moves would put the Yankees in a good position to repeat in 2010. It keeps the core of the team intact while giving some of the younger players a chance to step forward and claim their role in the major leagues. It give them a deep team that can withstand some serious injuries if need be both in the rotation and the outfield.
Any thoughts on this?
Monday, November 9, 2009
Rotation Depth is a Must
Last offseason, we got a complete overhaul of the pitching rotation. After the debacle of the 2004-2008 rotations, it was clear that the Yanks needed some help. So, Brian Cashman took advantage of a strong pitching market and went out and got C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for the rotation. The two pitched well and brought home the trophy, going on three days rest throughout the postseason. It was a frenzied offseason and only Andy Pettitte ended up making significant contributions in both 2008 and 2009.
Now, coming off a World Series championship and entering a relatively weak free agent market, its clear that this year the rotation is going to remain pretty much the same. Sabathia and Burnett are locked up for the next few years and all that's left to do is to tinker with the back of the rotation.
Everybody in Yankeeland is hoping for one more year from Andy Pettitte. He saw his periphereals decline in 2009 and he's clearly not the ace he once was. However, he's a safe bet to eat up around 200 innings and their's still nobody I trust more in a big game. He's only going to be looking for a one year deal and I doubt it'll be for much more than 10-12 million. Unless he decides he wants to retire and go out on top, he'll back in pinstripes for the 2010 campaign.
Still, that leaves two more rotation spots to fill with a relatively weak free agent class for starting pitchers. If you look at it, its a very underwhelming list. Only John Lackey really catches the eye and he has some serious problems, as well. He's a year on the wrong side of 30, his numbers have been declining since 2005, and he's going to get paid a ton of money this year as the only reliable starter available. I don't think he's going to be all that happy as a 3rd starter either, I don't think the answer to the back-end of the Yankees rotation is going to come from the free agent market.
Its time for the Yankees to start giving all these young pitchers that we've heard so much about a larger role. With such a weak free agent class, it would be wise for them to focus more on depth. They have some cheap, high potential arms that need to be given a big role this season. Already they have Chamberlain, Hughes, and Gaudin under contract for 2010. Wang will also probably be back to compete for a job midseason. Finally, I'd like to see the Yanks go try and get free agent Justin Duscherer. I know about all of his issues, both mental and physical, but the guy can pitch and would have an easy time transitioning to the bullpen if their isn't room for him in the bullpen.
This gives you four high upside guys at the start of Spring Training to try and fill two spots. Duscherer, Gaudin, Joba, and Hughes have all experienced some degree of success in the major leagues and you have to figure that at least two of them will stick in the rotation. All of these guys, with the exception of Gaudin, have also flashed front of the rotation potential at times and could break out in a big way for the Yanks. For the guys that don't crack the rotation, its an easy move out to the bullpen where all four of them have been effective. Midway through the season, you throw the Yankees former ace, Wang, back into the mix and you have IPK and Zack McAllister waiting for the call in Scranton.
Its not the big flashy multi-million dollar signing the Yankees usually make this time of year. I really just don't see John Lackey as being worth A.J. or C.C. money though. The solution to the problem is easy, stock up on young, high upside guys and a couple of them will pan out. They wouldn't be nearly as vulnerable to a big injury as they have been in recent years. Its also a cheap solution that could help them deal with any trouble they may have bringing back Damon or Matsui. Having a lot of depth at the back of the rotation is the key to their 2010 pitching.
Now, coming off a World Series championship and entering a relatively weak free agent market, its clear that this year the rotation is going to remain pretty much the same. Sabathia and Burnett are locked up for the next few years and all that's left to do is to tinker with the back of the rotation.
Everybody in Yankeeland is hoping for one more year from Andy Pettitte. He saw his periphereals decline in 2009 and he's clearly not the ace he once was. However, he's a safe bet to eat up around 200 innings and their's still nobody I trust more in a big game. He's only going to be looking for a one year deal and I doubt it'll be for much more than 10-12 million. Unless he decides he wants to retire and go out on top, he'll back in pinstripes for the 2010 campaign.
Still, that leaves two more rotation spots to fill with a relatively weak free agent class for starting pitchers. If you look at it, its a very underwhelming list. Only John Lackey really catches the eye and he has some serious problems, as well. He's a year on the wrong side of 30, his numbers have been declining since 2005, and he's going to get paid a ton of money this year as the only reliable starter available. I don't think he's going to be all that happy as a 3rd starter either, I don't think the answer to the back-end of the Yankees rotation is going to come from the free agent market.
Its time for the Yankees to start giving all these young pitchers that we've heard so much about a larger role. With such a weak free agent class, it would be wise for them to focus more on depth. They have some cheap, high potential arms that need to be given a big role this season. Already they have Chamberlain, Hughes, and Gaudin under contract for 2010. Wang will also probably be back to compete for a job midseason. Finally, I'd like to see the Yanks go try and get free agent Justin Duscherer. I know about all of his issues, both mental and physical, but the guy can pitch and would have an easy time transitioning to the bullpen if their isn't room for him in the bullpen.
This gives you four high upside guys at the start of Spring Training to try and fill two spots. Duscherer, Gaudin, Joba, and Hughes have all experienced some degree of success in the major leagues and you have to figure that at least two of them will stick in the rotation. All of these guys, with the exception of Gaudin, have also flashed front of the rotation potential at times and could break out in a big way for the Yanks. For the guys that don't crack the rotation, its an easy move out to the bullpen where all four of them have been effective. Midway through the season, you throw the Yankees former ace, Wang, back into the mix and you have IPK and Zack McAllister waiting for the call in Scranton.
Its not the big flashy multi-million dollar signing the Yankees usually make this time of year. I really just don't see John Lackey as being worth A.J. or C.C. money though. The solution to the problem is easy, stock up on young, high upside guys and a couple of them will pan out. They wouldn't be nearly as vulnerable to a big injury as they have been in recent years. Its also a cheap solution that could help them deal with any trouble they may have bringing back Damon or Matsui. Having a lot of depth at the back of the rotation is the key to their 2010 pitching.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Why Not Both?
In the wake of the euphoria over the Yankees World Series victory, the one question that seems to be on everybody's mind is this: Damon or Matsui? Both of them contributed hugely to both the Yankees regular and postseason success. Both also came up huge in the World Series. Both are also getting older though, and neither have shown any indications that they may be the least bit interested in retirement.
Damon hit well over .300 and his heads up double steal in Game Four was huge in a series that felt like it could have gone either way. He had a major regular season resurgence at the plate, taking advantage of a short porch in rightfield that seemed to be made specifically for him. The only flaw in his 2009 season was that his traditionally excellent range completely vanished.
Matsui's Game Six heroics earned him a well deserved World Series MVP. He essentially won the clincher for the Yanks and its tough to tell him to pack his bags after a series like that. Besides that, he had a monster year at the plate. His typically quiet excellence was largely overlooked and as long as he doesn't have to play the field, their's no reason he can't repeat his performance in 2010.
Their's a perception in Yankeeland that the Yankees need at least one of these guys. Their are valid reasons for this argument, as well. Obviously this team is good enough to win without splurging on a massive Matt Holliday contract. Besides that, it would be foolish to go and gamble millions on a guy who is an unknown when it comes to New York with the ever clutch Damon and Matsui readily available. Overpaying for the vastly overrated Jason Bay would be an even bigger mistake and nobody else on the free agent or trade market really jumps out at you. So, its clear that it would be prudent to re-sign at least one of them.
Why though, do the fans and Yankees brass believe we only have room for one of the two?
I know all the arguments for getting younger and giving Austin Jackson a chance to break into the majors. I also understand why people are tempted to leave that DH spot open so it can be used to rest our aging stars. In an ideal world where the lineup on Opening Day is that same as that of Game Six of the World Series, it sounds like a great idea. However, we don't live in that perfect world and players will get hurt.
Remember last year when everybody wanted to trade either Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady for starting pitching? We all had the perfect plan to pluck Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants or to add Aaron Harang to the back of an already imposing preseason rotation. None of that came to fruition though and Cashman correctly decided to hang onto both for depth. Because of that depth, when Nady went down the Yankees were ready to simply name Nick Swisher the starting right fielder and absorb the loss. Instead of being forced to look outside the organization for help and having to give up prospects at the trade deadline for an aging corner outfielder, it was an easy fix. Perhaps even an upgrade.
Looking ahead to the potential 2010 outfield configuration, we will probably have Swisher in right, Gardner/Melky in center, probably Damon in left, and a rotating cast of characters at DH. Then you have Austin Jackson waiting in the wings, still probably unready for the big leagues. All in all, a pretty solid cast. Nothing to write home about but its a solid crew out there.
Now, what happens when somebody goes down? If Swisher goes down and you decide you want to give Jeter or A-Rod a half of a day off at DH you're looking at a lineup that boasts the likes of Melky, Gardner, and Ramiro Pena at its back end on some days. If Posada goes down your seven, eight, and nine hitters will become Cervelli or Molina, Gardner, or Melky, and, if he's even brought back, Eric Hinske at DH. That's not worst case scenario folks, that's the reality of what you're going to have to watch if just one guy gets hurt for an extended period of time and they go into the year lacking a strong DH or leftfielder.
The reason they won over 100 regular season games was because of the offense. Sure, the pitching was vastly improved but what got the Yankees into the playoffs was their incredibly deep lineup. It was a group where anybody could beat you on a given day and if somebody fell into a little slump, you could count on somebody else picking them up with a big day. If they go into the season one injury away from losing that edge, its going to be a very different regular season from that of 2009.
I know I might get some flak for this and their's some sentimentality to my desire to see both of these guys back in pinstripes. After all, it was only yesterday that I saw these guys march down to the Canyon of Heroes to be given a key to the city of New York. However, this is also the logical move to make.
They're two guys who put up with OBA's of .376 and .378 in the regular season. That kind of production simply can't be replaced by an Austin Jackson or a Melky Cabrera. Sure, Damon's a liability in the field but we're only looking for his legs to hold out another year or two. Both of them could probably be had on a one year deal, although Damon will probably get two. These guys are really clutch, professional hitters who probably have another year or two left in them before they're finished with baseball. The Yankees need depth and these two can offer it for a relatively low price.
What do you guys think?
Damon hit well over .300 and his heads up double steal in Game Four was huge in a series that felt like it could have gone either way. He had a major regular season resurgence at the plate, taking advantage of a short porch in rightfield that seemed to be made specifically for him. The only flaw in his 2009 season was that his traditionally excellent range completely vanished.
Matsui's Game Six heroics earned him a well deserved World Series MVP. He essentially won the clincher for the Yanks and its tough to tell him to pack his bags after a series like that. Besides that, he had a monster year at the plate. His typically quiet excellence was largely overlooked and as long as he doesn't have to play the field, their's no reason he can't repeat his performance in 2010.
Their's a perception in Yankeeland that the Yankees need at least one of these guys. Their are valid reasons for this argument, as well. Obviously this team is good enough to win without splurging on a massive Matt Holliday contract. Besides that, it would be foolish to go and gamble millions on a guy who is an unknown when it comes to New York with the ever clutch Damon and Matsui readily available. Overpaying for the vastly overrated Jason Bay would be an even bigger mistake and nobody else on the free agent or trade market really jumps out at you. So, its clear that it would be prudent to re-sign at least one of them.
Why though, do the fans and Yankees brass believe we only have room for one of the two?
I know all the arguments for getting younger and giving Austin Jackson a chance to break into the majors. I also understand why people are tempted to leave that DH spot open so it can be used to rest our aging stars. In an ideal world where the lineup on Opening Day is that same as that of Game Six of the World Series, it sounds like a great idea. However, we don't live in that perfect world and players will get hurt.
Remember last year when everybody wanted to trade either Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady for starting pitching? We all had the perfect plan to pluck Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants or to add Aaron Harang to the back of an already imposing preseason rotation. None of that came to fruition though and Cashman correctly decided to hang onto both for depth. Because of that depth, when Nady went down the Yankees were ready to simply name Nick Swisher the starting right fielder and absorb the loss. Instead of being forced to look outside the organization for help and having to give up prospects at the trade deadline for an aging corner outfielder, it was an easy fix. Perhaps even an upgrade.
Looking ahead to the potential 2010 outfield configuration, we will probably have Swisher in right, Gardner/Melky in center, probably Damon in left, and a rotating cast of characters at DH. Then you have Austin Jackson waiting in the wings, still probably unready for the big leagues. All in all, a pretty solid cast. Nothing to write home about but its a solid crew out there.
Now, what happens when somebody goes down? If Swisher goes down and you decide you want to give Jeter or A-Rod a half of a day off at DH you're looking at a lineup that boasts the likes of Melky, Gardner, and Ramiro Pena at its back end on some days. If Posada goes down your seven, eight, and nine hitters will become Cervelli or Molina, Gardner, or Melky, and, if he's even brought back, Eric Hinske at DH. That's not worst case scenario folks, that's the reality of what you're going to have to watch if just one guy gets hurt for an extended period of time and they go into the year lacking a strong DH or leftfielder.
The reason they won over 100 regular season games was because of the offense. Sure, the pitching was vastly improved but what got the Yankees into the playoffs was their incredibly deep lineup. It was a group where anybody could beat you on a given day and if somebody fell into a little slump, you could count on somebody else picking them up with a big day. If they go into the season one injury away from losing that edge, its going to be a very different regular season from that of 2009.
I know I might get some flak for this and their's some sentimentality to my desire to see both of these guys back in pinstripes. After all, it was only yesterday that I saw these guys march down to the Canyon of Heroes to be given a key to the city of New York. However, this is also the logical move to make.
They're two guys who put up with OBA's of .376 and .378 in the regular season. That kind of production simply can't be replaced by an Austin Jackson or a Melky Cabrera. Sure, Damon's a liability in the field but we're only looking for his legs to hold out another year or two. Both of them could probably be had on a one year deal, although Damon will probably get two. These guys are really clutch, professional hitters who probably have another year or two left in them before they're finished with baseball. The Yankees need depth and these two can offer it for a relatively low price.
What do you guys think?
Friday, November 6, 2009
Open Thread: Parade Day
My uncle has some friends in high places and we ended up watching the parade from the 18th floor of the Woolworth Building. There's not to much say other than that it was just an amazing experience. The energy and pure joy of the fans was amazing. I have pictures I'll upload later on and if you have any, it'd be great if you shared them here.
Tomorrow, the sports world will begin to shift their attention to football and the hot stove is already starting to heat up. Tonight though, the city of New York is a baseball city.
Tomorrow, the sports world will begin to shift their attention to football and the hot stove is already starting to heat up. Tonight though, the city of New York is a baseball city.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
2009- Baseball Magic
Last night the New York Yankees did something that they haven't done in nearly a decade. They reversed the trend of steady decline I've seen since I first became a fan in '04, they gave many young fans their first championship, they won one for the Boss, they vanquished the demons of '04 and '01 by pummeling an old villain, and they proved to everyone that the ghosts have moved across the street.
What a year. From Torre's book and Selena Roberts' article, to the pies in the face and the reincarnation of the spirit of Reggie Jackson in A-Rod its been amazing watching these guys come together as a team to take the ultimate prize. A World Series Championship.
As the great Mariano got those last three outs of 2009, the flashbacks ran through my mind. A-Rod's huge hits late in the games, Mariano's complete and utter postseason dominance, Teixiera's walkoff against the Twins, Joe Mauer's double turned foul ball, sweeping the Red Sox in August to lock up the division, listening to John Sterling call A-Rod's walkoff against in that series, seeing Wang come back and then go back down again, winning the ASG, seeing Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui give the Yankees walkoffs on my first two games in the new Stadium, the walkoff weekend against the Twins, A-Rod hitting a homer on his first pitch, C.C. losing the first game at the Stadium, the massive dissapointment of Wang, Nady's injury, A-Rod's injury, the Selena Roberts article, Joe Torre's book, signing Teixeira, signing Burnett, signing C.C., trading for Swisher, Mussina's retirement, and finally that last victory lap around the old stadium.
I'm happy for everybody on this team. Their are no disgruntled aging sluggers, no constantly injured, overpaid pitchers. Its a team personified by Nick Swisher's exuberance and love of life. They play with the never quit, warrior mentality of Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. They made sure that baseball was always the story. They quietly determined air of Matsui and Jeter was a sharp contrast to the media frenzy that had followed this team's off the field stories in recent years.
The different turning points of the regular season have been well document already. A-Rod's return and the torrid hitting of Mark Teixeira that followed, Phil Hughes moving to the bullpen and showing everybody why he wasn't traded for Johan Santana two winters ago, Cashman's appearance in Atlanta when the team hit a rut, and that August sweep of the Red Sox that locked the playoff spot up. We've seen that show before though and with a one and done performance in the ALDS all would have been forgotten and I'm not sure Joe Girardi would still have his job.
The one thing people were saying about this team all year long though, from that game of pool in March, this team is different. Instead of the chokejob we've become accustomed to in the postseason, they did everything they needed to. They crushed the Twins in three games, they finally conquered the Angels, and they finally won it all by beating the defending World Champion Phillies and Pedro Martinez on their home turf.
What a year. From Torre's book and Selena Roberts' article, to the pies in the face and the reincarnation of the spirit of Reggie Jackson in A-Rod its been amazing watching these guys come together as a team to take the ultimate prize. A World Series Championship.
As the great Mariano got those last three outs of 2009, the flashbacks ran through my mind. A-Rod's huge hits late in the games, Mariano's complete and utter postseason dominance, Teixiera's walkoff against the Twins, Joe Mauer's double turned foul ball, sweeping the Red Sox in August to lock up the division, listening to John Sterling call A-Rod's walkoff against in that series, seeing Wang come back and then go back down again, winning the ASG, seeing Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui give the Yankees walkoffs on my first two games in the new Stadium, the walkoff weekend against the Twins, A-Rod hitting a homer on his first pitch, C.C. losing the first game at the Stadium, the massive dissapointment of Wang, Nady's injury, A-Rod's injury, the Selena Roberts article, Joe Torre's book, signing Teixeira, signing Burnett, signing C.C., trading for Swisher, Mussina's retirement, and finally that last victory lap around the old stadium.
I'm happy for everybody on this team. Their are no disgruntled aging sluggers, no constantly injured, overpaid pitchers. Its a team personified by Nick Swisher's exuberance and love of life. They play with the never quit, warrior mentality of Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. They made sure that baseball was always the story. They quietly determined air of Matsui and Jeter was a sharp contrast to the media frenzy that had followed this team's off the field stories in recent years.
The different turning points of the regular season have been well document already. A-Rod's return and the torrid hitting of Mark Teixeira that followed, Phil Hughes moving to the bullpen and showing everybody why he wasn't traded for Johan Santana two winters ago, Cashman's appearance in Atlanta when the team hit a rut, and that August sweep of the Red Sox that locked the playoff spot up. We've seen that show before though and with a one and done performance in the ALDS all would have been forgotten and I'm not sure Joe Girardi would still have his job.
The one thing people were saying about this team all year long though, from that game of pool in March, this team is different. Instead of the chokejob we've become accustomed to in the postseason, they did everything they needed to. They crushed the Twins in three games, they finally conquered the Angels, and they finally won it all by beating the defending World Champion Phillies and Pedro Martinez on their home turf.
I could go on and on about this team. Words simply cannot describe how incredible it has been to watch this team evolve since I jumped on board. Its has been said that baseball is a metaphor for life and in tough times like these when everybody is searching for a hero, New York found 25 in the South Bronx. Let's put aside all the debate about "top team of the decade" or plans for next year. Let's even forget about #27 for a moment and all that scoreboard crap. Their'll be plenty of time for that later in coming weeks and months. For now, lets savor this victory. However, let's enjoy the here and now of this victory and the 2009 World Series Champion, New York Yankees.
Photo from RAB.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Yankees-Phillies Pitching Comparison: Part Two
So here's the second, and final part of this series.
The Bullpens- This has been really the only dissapointment so far for the Yankees. What was supposed to be a huge strength has turned out to not really be all that great after all. Phil Hughes has not been nearly as good as he was in the regular season in the eight inning. Joba Chamberlain has also failed to become the shutdown reliever that people anticipated him being. I don't have all that much faith in the two lefties either, though I have to admit they've gotten the job done so far. On the bright side, David Robertson has gotten them some huge outs and I have to think that Girardi is going to go to him in some big spots now. And of course you can't forget about Mariano Rivera. The greatest closer in baseball history has shown no signs of aging so far this October. What he does blows my mind and their isn't anybody that compares. I have to think that Hughes is going to figure things out to. If he does get going then D-Rob, Hughes, and Mariano are going to be a very potent late inning combination. The newly added Brian Bruney is an X factor, as well. He's as inconsistent as anybody in baseball and they might just be able to catch lightning in a bottle with him in this final series.
The Phillies came into the postseason with a less heralded, but similar bullpen. Some of their stats are very similar to the Yankees. However, they lacked the big names that the Yankees possessed. For example, instead of the great Mariano, they have the enigmatic Brad Lidge closing games out for them. The guy is truly one of the oddest cases in all of baseball. Sometimes he appears to be among the truly elite closers in the game. Other times he's barely suitable as a mop up man. For most of this year Phillies fans saw the bad Brad Lidge who put up and ERA over 7.00. However, he's been dominating for them in the postseason. Its an interesting situation with Lidge, as it always seems to be. Ryan Madson is the other guy that will get a good chunk of the Phillies innings. He's been pretty good for three straight years now. His 3.23 FIP and 4.20 tRA won't blow anybody away but its solid enough. After that things drop off a bit. Unless we see some early exits from Phillies pitchers or extra inning games, the only other guy worth noting is Scott Eyre who could come in for lefties.
Despite the struggles of Hughes and Chamberlain in the playoffs, I give the Yankees a solid edge here. It really boils down to one guy, Mariano Rivera. Their just aren't enough superlatives to describe him. He's just the best, period. On the other hand, if you feel like the game's over when Brad Lidge comes into a game, you just haven't been paying attention. The Yankees will get that eighth figured out and both Coke and Marte can take care of any lefties that Philly throws at them.
Prediction- Yankees in seven- This is going to be the toughest obstacle this team team has faced yet. Against all the other teams they've faced, whether it be the Red Sox, Twins, or Angels, they've had the clear edge on paper. However, against the Phillies their is no clear-cut pitching advantage. The three Lee-Sabathia games are toss-ups, the Yankees should win the two Burnett-Pedro games, and the Phillies should take both of the Pettitte-Hamels games. Ultimately, I think the Yanks bullpen will help them steal that extra game or two they need. I think we'll see another pie or two before the season is over. I'm also picking Nick Swisher for World Series MVP.
Go Yankees!
The Bullpens- This has been really the only dissapointment so far for the Yankees. What was supposed to be a huge strength has turned out to not really be all that great after all. Phil Hughes has not been nearly as good as he was in the regular season in the eight inning. Joba Chamberlain has also failed to become the shutdown reliever that people anticipated him being. I don't have all that much faith in the two lefties either, though I have to admit they've gotten the job done so far. On the bright side, David Robertson has gotten them some huge outs and I have to think that Girardi is going to go to him in some big spots now. And of course you can't forget about Mariano Rivera. The greatest closer in baseball history has shown no signs of aging so far this October. What he does blows my mind and their isn't anybody that compares. I have to think that Hughes is going to figure things out to. If he does get going then D-Rob, Hughes, and Mariano are going to be a very potent late inning combination. The newly added Brian Bruney is an X factor, as well. He's as inconsistent as anybody in baseball and they might just be able to catch lightning in a bottle with him in this final series.
The Phillies came into the postseason with a less heralded, but similar bullpen. Some of their stats are very similar to the Yankees. However, they lacked the big names that the Yankees possessed. For example, instead of the great Mariano, they have the enigmatic Brad Lidge closing games out for them. The guy is truly one of the oddest cases in all of baseball. Sometimes he appears to be among the truly elite closers in the game. Other times he's barely suitable as a mop up man. For most of this year Phillies fans saw the bad Brad Lidge who put up and ERA over 7.00. However, he's been dominating for them in the postseason. Its an interesting situation with Lidge, as it always seems to be. Ryan Madson is the other guy that will get a good chunk of the Phillies innings. He's been pretty good for three straight years now. His 3.23 FIP and 4.20 tRA won't blow anybody away but its solid enough. After that things drop off a bit. Unless we see some early exits from Phillies pitchers or extra inning games, the only other guy worth noting is Scott Eyre who could come in for lefties.
Despite the struggles of Hughes and Chamberlain in the playoffs, I give the Yankees a solid edge here. It really boils down to one guy, Mariano Rivera. Their just aren't enough superlatives to describe him. He's just the best, period. On the other hand, if you feel like the game's over when Brad Lidge comes into a game, you just haven't been paying attention. The Yankees will get that eighth figured out and both Coke and Marte can take care of any lefties that Philly throws at them.
Prediction- Yankees in seven- This is going to be the toughest obstacle this team team has faced yet. Against all the other teams they've faced, whether it be the Red Sox, Twins, or Angels, they've had the clear edge on paper. However, against the Phillies their is no clear-cut pitching advantage. The three Lee-Sabathia games are toss-ups, the Yankees should win the two Burnett-Pedro games, and the Phillies should take both of the Pettitte-Hamels games. Ultimately, I think the Yanks bullpen will help them steal that extra game or two they need. I think we'll see another pie or two before the season is over. I'm also picking Nick Swisher for World Series MVP.
Go Yankees!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Yankees-Phillies Pitching Comparisons: Part One
This is the fourth time this year I'm making one of these pitching comparison posts. The first was way back in March over at the Chuck Knoblog and things have changed big-time since then. Its a little longer than I originally anticipated and I've decided to split it up into two posts. One for the starters and one for the bullpen and my final prediction for the Series. I'd appreciate any feedback you have on this. Hope you like it.
These two teams are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball. Particularly so in the area of pitching though. Charlie Manuel decided to make the right decision (unlike Mike Scioscia) and has announced that he's going with a three man rotation of Lee-Pedro-Hamels. Whether Pedro and Hamels should be switched is another discussion entirely but that's what we have to look forward to over the next week or so. The Yanks will counter with Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte.
Games 1, 4, and 7- Lee/Sabathia- These guys are projected to pitch up to three of the potential seven games this series and we could see some intense pitching duels when these two guys are on the hill. We all know what C.C.'s done this year. He ate up innings and was great doing it in the regular season, if slightly dissapointing. In the postseason, however, he has dominated the opposition. His first start against the Twins was great but its been overshadowed by his MVP worthy ALCS. Two straight eight inning, one run performances are impressive no matter what. When you consider the second was on short rest, its even more impressive
The reigning AL CYA winner will be going for the other side. Cliff Lee, this year, joined the long list of pitchers that made the transition from AL to NL and saw their numbers suddenly jump after his midseason trade to Philadelphia. Not that he was bad before then, his season numbers are sparkling. His FIP (3.11) is right in line with his ERA (3.22). He has a K/BB of 4.21 and his tRA of 3.97 is only a couple ticks above Sabathia's. This postseason he's also made three starts. He started things off for the Phillies with a complete game, one run performance. Most recently he threw eight shutout innings against Los Angeles in a blowout victory. Sandwhiched in between is a seven and 1/3 innings, three run performance.
Their is no clear cut favorite in these games. Both guys are legitimate aces and have few question marks about whether they can handle October baseball. I'd be shocked in they don't split these three games 2-1. My prediction is that whoever wins the majority of these matchups is going to win the World Series.
Games 2 and 5- Burnett/Martinez- For compelling storylines, it doesn't get much better than this. Forget about everything else for just a minute and you can sum these games up in a single sentence. Pedro's back in the Bronx. Pedro is going to get a chance to prove all the doubters wrong on the biggest stage on earth against his "daddy." Its been a weird year for Pedro, he sat the first half out waiting for an offer before the Phillies finally came calling. He's not nearly what he used to be, he relies much more on his control than he ever did before and he outperformed his periphereals by a mile. His FIP of 4.28 is solid and his tRA of 5.97 is dreadful. He's not the big time strikeout pitcher you want on the mound in the postseason either. However, he was fantastic in his one postseason start this year and Pedro is no stranger to the big game.
On the other hand, we have A.J. Burnett. Its his first World Series since 2003 when he basically sat on the bench for a few games. He got the huge contract in the offseason and was mostly dissapointing in the regular season. However, if you really look at the stats he turned in a typical A.J. year. He racked up the K's in huge numbers but also walked a ton and seemed to take some time to adjust to the early home run tendencies of Yankee Stadium. His ERA was a very solid 4.04 but his FIP was 4.33 and his tRA 4.74. Not what you're looking for from a guy making as much money as he is, for as long a time as he will be. The Yankees didn't bring him in for the regular season though. He's a power pitcher and figures to do better in the playoffs than most others. In the playoffs he's thrown two good games and one bad one. The bad one came most recently but it wasn't really disastrous and its hopefully just a blip on the screen.
Burnett, like Pedro, wildly outperformed his periphereals this year. At first glance, their stats may appear to be pretty comparable, as well. However, when it gets right down it, Burnett is worlds better than Pedro at this point in their careers. That difference in tRA just can't be ignored and the Yankees really should win both of these games. That said, Burnett is renowned for his inconsistency and it is possible that Pedro could pull a miracle at the end of his career. I think they split these two but the Yanks really could take both of them.
Games 3 and 6-Pettitte/Hamels-A story that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves is that this may be the last time we see Andy Pettitte pitching in the Fall Classic for the New York Yankees. We saw his periphereals dip this year and he's been talking retirement for seemingly forever. The Yankees idea of what he's worth may not be quite on the same level as Pettitte's own. I think he'll be back and I'm hoping against it, however, this could be another ugly divorce that Yankees fans really don't need. If he is back, who knows if next year's team will have what it takes to make it this far? This could be Andy's last chance to get that fifth ring and I wouldn't be surprised to see big game Andy deliver on that huge postseason reputation. His numbers this year wouldn't blow anybody away but he's been steadily above average.
This time last year, Cole Hamels was getting ready to pitch Game One of the World Series and earned his own big game reputation with a fantastic postseason. He won both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. He went 4-0 and had a 1.80 ERA overall. The fact that he's been bumped down to Game Three is a reflection of his recent performance more than anything else. The Phillies lefty hasn't come anywhere close to replicating his dazzling 2008 October this year. He's made three starts and not one of them have been "quality starts." He also was victimized by a high BABIP in the regular season. It was about 20 points higher than his career average and about 50 points higher than what it was last year. As a result, he put up the highest ERA of his career, that was a still solid 4.32. His FIP of 3.72 and his tRA of 4.51 where right in line with his career norms and in reality he is still every bit the borderline ace that he has been in years past.
I think the Yankees definitely caught a break with Manuel making Hamels his #3 instead of his #2 guy. Hamels is a top of the line pitcher who has proven he can suceed in October baseball. He can shut an offensive down and is probably the best pitcher on either team not named Sabathia, Rivera, or Lee. Pettitte is still a damn good pitcher who can come up huge in big games but he's at the tail-end of his career. I could see Andy making the magic happen one more time but the Phillies should win these two games.
These two teams are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball. Particularly so in the area of pitching though. Charlie Manuel decided to make the right decision (unlike Mike Scioscia) and has announced that he's going with a three man rotation of Lee-Pedro-Hamels. Whether Pedro and Hamels should be switched is another discussion entirely but that's what we have to look forward to over the next week or so. The Yanks will counter with Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte.
Games 1, 4, and 7- Lee/Sabathia- These guys are projected to pitch up to three of the potential seven games this series and we could see some intense pitching duels when these two guys are on the hill. We all know what C.C.'s done this year. He ate up innings and was great doing it in the regular season, if slightly dissapointing. In the postseason, however, he has dominated the opposition. His first start against the Twins was great but its been overshadowed by his MVP worthy ALCS. Two straight eight inning, one run performances are impressive no matter what. When you consider the second was on short rest, its even more impressive
The reigning AL CYA winner will be going for the other side. Cliff Lee, this year, joined the long list of pitchers that made the transition from AL to NL and saw their numbers suddenly jump after his midseason trade to Philadelphia. Not that he was bad before then, his season numbers are sparkling. His FIP (3.11) is right in line with his ERA (3.22). He has a K/BB of 4.21 and his tRA of 3.97 is only a couple ticks above Sabathia's. This postseason he's also made three starts. He started things off for the Phillies with a complete game, one run performance. Most recently he threw eight shutout innings against Los Angeles in a blowout victory. Sandwhiched in between is a seven and 1/3 innings, three run performance.
Their is no clear cut favorite in these games. Both guys are legitimate aces and have few question marks about whether they can handle October baseball. I'd be shocked in they don't split these three games 2-1. My prediction is that whoever wins the majority of these matchups is going to win the World Series.
Games 2 and 5- Burnett/Martinez- For compelling storylines, it doesn't get much better than this. Forget about everything else for just a minute and you can sum these games up in a single sentence. Pedro's back in the Bronx. Pedro is going to get a chance to prove all the doubters wrong on the biggest stage on earth against his "daddy." Its been a weird year for Pedro, he sat the first half out waiting for an offer before the Phillies finally came calling. He's not nearly what he used to be, he relies much more on his control than he ever did before and he outperformed his periphereals by a mile. His FIP of 4.28 is solid and his tRA of 5.97 is dreadful. He's not the big time strikeout pitcher you want on the mound in the postseason either. However, he was fantastic in his one postseason start this year and Pedro is no stranger to the big game.
On the other hand, we have A.J. Burnett. Its his first World Series since 2003 when he basically sat on the bench for a few games. He got the huge contract in the offseason and was mostly dissapointing in the regular season. However, if you really look at the stats he turned in a typical A.J. year. He racked up the K's in huge numbers but also walked a ton and seemed to take some time to adjust to the early home run tendencies of Yankee Stadium. His ERA was a very solid 4.04 but his FIP was 4.33 and his tRA 4.74. Not what you're looking for from a guy making as much money as he is, for as long a time as he will be. The Yankees didn't bring him in for the regular season though. He's a power pitcher and figures to do better in the playoffs than most others. In the playoffs he's thrown two good games and one bad one. The bad one came most recently but it wasn't really disastrous and its hopefully just a blip on the screen.
Burnett, like Pedro, wildly outperformed his periphereals this year. At first glance, their stats may appear to be pretty comparable, as well. However, when it gets right down it, Burnett is worlds better than Pedro at this point in their careers. That difference in tRA just can't be ignored and the Yankees really should win both of these games. That said, Burnett is renowned for his inconsistency and it is possible that Pedro could pull a miracle at the end of his career. I think they split these two but the Yanks really could take both of them.
Games 3 and 6-Pettitte/Hamels-A story that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves is that this may be the last time we see Andy Pettitte pitching in the Fall Classic for the New York Yankees. We saw his periphereals dip this year and he's been talking retirement for seemingly forever. The Yankees idea of what he's worth may not be quite on the same level as Pettitte's own. I think he'll be back and I'm hoping against it, however, this could be another ugly divorce that Yankees fans really don't need. If he is back, who knows if next year's team will have what it takes to make it this far? This could be Andy's last chance to get that fifth ring and I wouldn't be surprised to see big game Andy deliver on that huge postseason reputation. His numbers this year wouldn't blow anybody away but he's been steadily above average.
This time last year, Cole Hamels was getting ready to pitch Game One of the World Series and earned his own big game reputation with a fantastic postseason. He won both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. He went 4-0 and had a 1.80 ERA overall. The fact that he's been bumped down to Game Three is a reflection of his recent performance more than anything else. The Phillies lefty hasn't come anywhere close to replicating his dazzling 2008 October this year. He's made three starts and not one of them have been "quality starts." He also was victimized by a high BABIP in the regular season. It was about 20 points higher than his career average and about 50 points higher than what it was last year. As a result, he put up the highest ERA of his career, that was a still solid 4.32. His FIP of 3.72 and his tRA of 4.51 where right in line with his career norms and in reality he is still every bit the borderline ace that he has been in years past.
I think the Yankees definitely caught a break with Manuel making Hamels his #3 instead of his #2 guy. Hamels is a top of the line pitcher who has proven he can suceed in October baseball. He can shut an offensive down and is probably the best pitcher on either team not named Sabathia, Rivera, or Lee. Pettitte is still a damn good pitcher who can come up huge in big games but he's at the tail-end of his career. I could see Andy making the magic happen one more time but the Phillies should win these two games.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Introducing tRA
A couple years ago, I was starting to get into Sabermetrics and decided to try my hand at making a stat to measure pitcher. The end result was a stat called RCA which was based essentially on the run values of batted balls and the percentage of the time they were outs. If you're curious as to how its figured out, the original post is here. I thought it was a pretty good stat and liked it better than FIP or other measures of pitcher performance and would use it whenever I had the time to calculate it by hand.
Relatively recently though, Graham MacAree from StatCorner.com created a stat called tRA (the link leads to a full explanation) that uses many of the same ideas that I had. tRA adjusts for park and other factors though and uses different run values from the ones I used. Mr. MacAree is clearly a lot smarter than I am and its clearly superior to RCA. Conveniently, it recently became readily available at fangraphs.com, as well. Typically I've used FIP as a basic barometer of how a pitcher is doing. However, from here on out I plan to start using tRA in conjunction with FIP and just wanted to let everybody know and give them a basic explanation of what it is.
I would definitely advise you to follow the link on tRA, it's an interesting read and doesn't get so complicated that most people couldn't understand it.
Relatively recently though, Graham MacAree from StatCorner.com created a stat called tRA (the link leads to a full explanation) that uses many of the same ideas that I had. tRA adjusts for park and other factors though and uses different run values from the ones I used. Mr. MacAree is clearly a lot smarter than I am and its clearly superior to RCA. Conveniently, it recently became readily available at fangraphs.com, as well. Typically I've used FIP as a basic barometer of how a pitcher is doing. However, from here on out I plan to start using tRA in conjunction with FIP and just wanted to let everybody know and give them a basic explanation of what it is.
I would definitely advise you to follow the link on tRA, it's an interesting read and doesn't get so complicated that most people couldn't understand it.
Monday, July 13, 2009
New Writer
Hi, I'm the newest writer for Sliding Into Home. I've been blogging about the Yankees since July of 2007, slightly over two years to the day now, when I launched River Avenue Watch on my own. I took a break, to recharge the batteries, but restarted after a couple months. Then I moved to the Chuck Knoblog, where I will continue to write occasionally. I have no hard feelings about my experience at the Chuck Knoblog but Sliding Into Home has been one of my favorite blogs for a while and when I read that Greg was looking for another writer I jumped at the chance. If you read the Chuck Knoblog, you'll have a good idea of what I''m going to continue to do here. So, that's pretty much it. I hope I can stay here for a long time and enjoy my time here.
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