(Guest Post) Would the Adrian Gonzalez trade really make the Sox a better team?

This post was written by SIH reader, Brian L. This is Brian's second guest post on the blog.

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Most of you are probably already aware; Adrian Gonzalez is the newest member of the Boston Red Sox. The Sox acquired Gonzalez Saturday morning from the San Diego Padres for Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Raymond Fuentes and a PTBNL. When I first heard the news, I couldn’t believe the Sox acquired Gonzalez for solely minor leaguers. No Ellsbury, No Bard… just prospects. That being said, the prospects dealt definitely have talent. Casey Kelly was rated the 18th overall best prospect by Baseball America, Anthony Rizzo is a 21 year old first baseman with solid power, and Raymond Fuentes is a speedy 19 year old center fielder. Yet, at first glance, this still feels like a steal for the BoSox, and I won’t be the first to tell you that. If San Diego would have waited until the deadline, they almost certainly would have gotten a better haul for Gonzalez. But what’s done is done, Gonzalez is a Boston Red Sox.

Now that Gonzalez is on the team, and he presumably will get a huge extension (he claims to want Ryan Howard money) we can certainly count Beltre out of Boston’s plans. With Youkilis moving to 3B, and Gonzalez becoming the new 1B, Beltre has nowhere to go. Can we bet that Beltre will probably end up signing a contract for 4-5 years and around 70-75 Million? Sounds about right. But with the Winter Meetings approaching, one big question mark for the Sox is the left field situation. The two most enticing names on the market include Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Most analysts claim Werth would be a perfect fit for the Red Sox, and I have to agree. Throw Werth and Gonzalez into the Red Sox lineup and suddenly your derailed lineup of 2010 could be an offensive force in 2011.

Or could it?

Most baseball fans think of the 2010 Red Sox as a team with injuries that was unable to compete, which is partially true. The main guy that carried the 2010 team was Adrian Beltre, who notched a spectacular 7.1 WAR, 11.8 UZR, and a .390 wOBA. The 2nd most important player on that team was Kevin Youkilis, who was worth 4.2 wins. 3rd most? Victor Martinez, who was worth 4.0 wins. For the record, Pedroia and Youkilis both had down years in 2010 due to injuries, and they will likely be far better in 2011

It’s probably safe to say Beltre would have digressed somewhat next year, so let’s say he would be worth 6.0 wins in 2011 and Martinez be worth 4.0 again. That’s 10 wins taken away from the Red Sox right there. Assuming the Red Sox sign Werth, that would mean Gonzalez + Werth need to notch a 10.0 WAR between them to even get back to where the Red Sox finished last year (89-73). Both players average 5-6 WAR per season, but it may be a lot to ask in their first year with a new team.

So here’s the big picture, assuming the Sox sign Werth, just how much better does it make the Red Sox as a team in 2011? I’ll make this easier: The Red Sox have just traded Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Raymond Fuentes and 50 Million dollars for Adrian Gonzalez and Jayson Werth. Does this make the Red Sox a better team? I think the answer is obvious.

- Bryan L

Guest Post: Breaking Down The Yanks-Jays Series

Hideous, brutal, atrocious, horrid.

Just about any of the preceding adjectives could describe the quality of play the Yankees brought into Toronto for the first 29.5 innings of baseball across the border. The Blue Jays brought the heat and took two out of three from the defending world champions. And let’s be honest, the Yankees are extremely fortunate to have escaped with that one win.

A.J. Burnett got the nod on Friday and was welcomed back to his home of three years to the tune of 6 earned runs over 6 innings pitched. He didn’t help his cause much by allowing 4 walks in addition to surrendering 6 hits. “Bad A.J.” lived up to his name as the inconsistent hurler was missing his spots all night. And Jose Bautista made sure Burnett knew it, too. Bautista continued his amazing tear by blasting a solo shot and two-run homer in his first two at bats. While the Blue Jays never seemed overpowering, they sure packed a punch when they needed to.

Unfortunately, the Yankee offense (1st in average, 2nd in RBI, 3rd in hits) was virtually lifeless. Toronto’s trio of Cecil, Romero and Morrow made the Yankees look like a minor league affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They combined to pitch 23 innings only allowing 14 hits, 6 walks, 4 earned runs while racking up 20 strikeouts

Meanwhile, Yankee pitching on Saturday and Sunday was phenomenal. Andy Pettitte continued the best start of his glorious career by going 7.2 innings allowing 2 runs on 5 hits while striking out 10. Pettitte has always been regarded as a stopper when the Yankees are on a losing streak and he certainly pitched that way on Saturday. The bullpen was spectacular as well, but to expect more than 5 scoreless innings out of them would simply be unrealistic.

Expecting more out of Javier Vazquez would be impractical as well. To all those that have doubted him due to his poor start to the season, please attempt to nitpick him now. Vazquez tossed a gem yesterday and has done more than his fair share in keeping the Yankees competitive in each of his last 6 outings. In fact, his ERA over the past 6 outings is a 2.72. Subtract his poor start in Minnesota, the ERA drops to 1.72.

These statistics are sure to stifle due to the irony…

• Yankees’ batting average over the weekend: 19 for 109 (.174)
• Teixeira and Rodriguez combined average: 4 for 28 (.125) 10 K’s
• Yankees with RISP through the first 29.5 innings: 2 for 28 (.071)
• Bullpen ERA from the weekend: 2.04

But as quickly as the Yankee offense can go dormant, it is capable of suddenly waking and creating havoc. When all hope seemed lost and the Yankees were looking like they would be swept back into the good old USA, they found their footing. The Yankees scored more runs in the last 2 innings of baseball in Toronto than the first 29.5 innings total. With Jeter and Cano coming up clutch, the Yankees finally capitalized by going 2 for 2 with RISP. The Bombers would salvage the final game by pushing across 4 runs in the eighth.

Believe it or not, since the start of 2006 the Yankees are 20-20 at the Rogers Centre. That means the Yankees had a losing record at the Rogers Centre heading into yesterday’s action. The Yankees are also only a mediocre 16-15 away from the fabled “Big Ballpark in the Bronx” this season.

Despite all of this, the Yankees remain 2 games behind the Rays for 1st in the AL East and 2.5 games ahead of Boston and Toronto in the Wild Card. They are thrilled to travel south to Baltimore to take on the streaking Orioles. The Yankees have tallied up 49 runs against the O’s in 9 games and look to bring back that type of offense as well as fatten their road record starting at 7:05pm on Tuesday.

Final scores of the three games:

• Friday, June 4th – Toronto 6, New York 1
• Saturday, June 5th – Toronto 3, New York 2 (F/14)
• Sunday, June 6th – New York 4, Toronto 3

By: Chris McKeown

Guest Post: More on Boston's Blown Lead

Crossfire is one of this blog's loyal readers. Today he posted this in one of the comments sections and I figured it deserved a full post. So here goes...

Here is a little laughable red sux trivia.

After their embarrassing loss last night, the announcer said it was tied for the second biggest comeback against them in their history.

I was amazed that it was only their second biggest so I decided to look up the biggest. Fortunately boston.com did the work for me today.

The biggest comeback against them was on June 4, 1989 when they were leading Toronto 10-0 after 6 innings at home.

They ended up losing 13-11 in 12.

The 9 run comeback last night was tied with three other games for the second biggest comeback against them.

Two of those games were against the Yankees.

As I have stated before, I was lucky enough to see the Yanks comeback from 9-0 after 2 1/2 at the Stadium with Clemens on the mound for the sux. The date was June 26, 1987. Best part was that I sat with a sux fan and after he busted my balls at the beginning of the game, I got the last laugh.

But the other time the Yanks came back from down 9 to the red sux is even better. Unfortunately I wasn't there because I wasn't born yet.

Get this...

Opening Day

Fenway Park

April 18, 1950.

The red sux go up 9-0 against their nemesis, the NY Yankees. red sox fans must be delighted.

Then the sky fell down on them.

(the following is from soxsuck.com)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

New York scored four in the sixth inning.

The Red Sox used five pitchers in the nine-run eighth (Mel Parnell, Walt Masterson, Earl Johnson, Al Papai, and Charley Schanz).

Billy Martin, playing in his first major league game, got two hits (a single and a double) in that inning. Tommy Henrich had two triples in the game, and the Yankees overcame the nine-run deficit to win 15-10.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Of course the Yanks went on to sweep the World Series that year over the Phillies.

(The other game that the sux lost after leading by 9 was on 8/2/36. They were leading the White Sox 10-1 after 4 1/2 and lost 12-11 in 12.)

Guest Post: A Look At Some Slow Starts

This is the third guest post from my buddy James Miller, and just the fourth in the brief history of Sliding Into Home. Hopefully there are many more as time goes on.

Today, he takes a look at some of the slow starts from around the league.

We're just about 1/3 of the way through the 2009 season and I couldn't help but notice some of the surprisingly awful numbers certain players are putting up.

Let's start with Angels second basemen Howie Kendick; he's been a .300 plus hitter at every level of the minor leagues, hit .322 in 2007 in the majors and holds a .294 career batting average in the big leagues. Not to mention he has a .468 batting average against the Yankees over 79 at bats. This season he is hitting .231 with a .281 on base percentage so recently (June 13th) he was optioned to Salt Lake of the Pacific Coast League (AAA) to retool himself.

Let's now shift to the National League briefly. Former Yankee, Alfonso Soriano, usually lives around the .275-.290 range as far as batting average is concerned and he is also capable of hitting 30-40 home runs in a season. While the power numbers are impressive, his batting average is this year as the lead off man for the Cubs is pathetic. He's hitting .224 with 14 home runs and 30 runs driven in. Here's where it really gets bothersome; with the bases loaded he is batting .000 (0/7), with runners in scoring position and 2 outs he is hitting .160, his RISP average is .157, and with runners on base he is hitting .203. 9 of his 14 home runs have been solo shots.

Keeping it NL, let's look at 2007 NL MVP, Jimmy Rollins. Rollins' on base percentage would not even be a respectable batting average for a lead off hitter at .261. He's hitting .217 and is 0 for his last 10 and 3 for his last 14. He was hitless the entire Baltimore series this past weekend while his team was swept by the last place Orioles. At home, Jimmy struggles the most hitting just .197 and was even dropped to 5th, 6th and 9th (1 game) in the batting order. His RISP is .210 and his RISP with 2 outs is .171. Rollins has been a huge part of the Phillies success the last 2 seasons, although they are in first place right now he will definitely need to find his swing if the Phillies will go deep into the postseason.

David Ortiz: While it pleases me to see him struggle without Manny (except against the Yankees since Posada doesn't seem to understand how to get him out yet) it's also alarming to see someone decline this fast. Similar to the downfall of Andruw Jones last year, Ortiz's power numbers have completely abandoned him. He is hitting .213 and has struck out 62 times, he only has 6 homers and 30 RBI's. Currently Ortiz has been dropped to 6th in the order and holds a .236 average in that slot. Mind you, his .213 average comes after a 2 hit game vs Atlanta yesterday, only his 11th multi-hit game of the season. Ortiz is .214 with RISP and .207 with nobody on base which probably means he continues to hit into shift after shift making him an easy first out consistently. This decline started to rise to the surface last season, but this year he has been significantly worse.

Finally we have Alex Rodriguez aka A-Rod. I don't want to sound as if I defend him because he is a Yankee, but it would be unfair to omit the fact that among the players that I have called out here, he is the only one that is recovering from an injury while trying to play through it. Watching every game, I have seen the positive effect that his presence in the lineup has had on other hitters. He's been getting on base despite his disgusting batting average of .213. He has a .371 on-base % and has walked more than he has struck out 30/26. I can't complain about his 9 home runs through 40 games but for Alex, that's a decline. with runners in scoring position he is hitting .235 with 3 homers and 21 RBI's. He has been especially disappointing in June, hitting .153 compared to his .260 start in May, which everyone excused due to the fact he was coming off minor hip surgery during the offseason. Currently the Yankees are 4 games out of first place, yet they are 0-8 vs Boston. Alex is hitting .100 against the Sawx (1-10). Once again, he hasn't been the most clutch player ever.

For all these guys, and the other slow starters around baseball, the positive side is that there is still about a full month left of baseball before even the all-star break comes so there is time to turn it around. But I still wonder, why the slow start. Only 2 of the 5 players I mentioned (Rollins-USA, Ortiz-Dominican Republic) played in the WBC in March, so I'm not gonna cry up that tree. Personally I think something like the WBC would only help a hitter as opposed to a pitcher who might suffer from arm fatigue such as Dice-K. All of these players are crucial to their teams success and they all play for potential contenders. In my opinion, the struggles of these players are leading to their teams underachievement thus far in the season, aside from Ortiz and the Sawx who are 15 games over .500, and in first place. It will be interesting to see if these guys can turn their seasons around and if they do, will their respected ball clubs follow their lead.

- James Miller

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If you are interested in writing a post or contributing regularly to Sliding Into Home, please email me at SlidingIntoHomeBlog@gmail.com.

Guest Post: What we really have in AJ Burnett

This is the second guest post from my buddy James Miller, and just the third in the brief history of Sliding Into Home. Hopefully there are many more as time goes on. If you have something you would like me to post, please feel free to email it to me and I'll post it.

What do we REALLY have in AJ Burnett? In my opinion, the answer to that question is; a ton. A ton of good qualities yes, but you need to understand what they really are in order to appreciate them. On the surface, when you look at the money the Yankees handed him this offseason, you’d expect him him to be 5-1 with an ERA under 3.00. Indeed he’s not, after last night AJ’s numbers stand at 4-2 with a 4.69 ERA. Burnett’s contribution to a winning club is deeper than his record or ERA. On any given night, Burnett can shut down a lineup. He’s a power pitcher and is certainly capable of getting the big strikeout. Having that in your cabinet is a great asset to a winning team. Yes, at times, perhaps too often, he forgets how to pitch and becomes a thrower. Yes, too often his control is nonexistent. But we’ve seen worse the past few seasons. A winning team needs guys with attitude on that mound. By trade AJ is old school in that way as we saw last night when he “accidentally” sailed that fastball over Nelson Cruz’s head in retaliation to Teixeira being drilled twice by Padilla. AJ is another solid bullet in the Yankee shotgun of a rotation and my point is his contribution to the entire staff and team are much more important than his ERA or win loss record. I’m not saying that having him implode and stink for the rest of the year won’t affect the team, but let’s relax a little before we call him a bust or before we call last season a fluke for him.

I can even include CC Sabathia in this whereas you cannot judge these guys by their salaries. Do not let their salaries set the statistical bar of success that we all do so often as fans. Their presence will almost be enough alone, the rest will take care of itself. It’s no doubt that this is primo talent the Yankees brought in this winter, no if ands or buts about it. These guys are going to find their comfort zone if they haven’t already and sooner or later perform at their highest level.

By James Miller

For James' other guest post here at SIH, click here.

Guest Post: Put Pedro in the Pen

This is the second guest post in the brief history of Sliding
Into Home, hopefully there are many more as time goes
on. This comes from a friend of mine, James Miller.

One Friday night game on September 10th, 1999 at Yankee stadium Pedro Martinez struck out 17 Yankees and picked up the win in a 3-1 victory for the Red Sox. That game is approaching it's 10 year anniversary and Pedro might be a relic of his old-self at best but this doesn't mean he wouldn't help the Yankee bullpen.

Over the past 4 seasons Pedro made 79 starts for the Mets, posted an overall record of 32-23, with an ERA of 3.87, pitched 486 innings in which he struck out 464 batters and walked only 137. he also stayed away from the long ball allowing only 57 home runs during that time. If that doesn't mean anything to you, Andy Pettitte who has been solid over the years for both the Yankees and Astros, has given up 70 home runs in his last 79 starts (30 as a member of the Astros and 40 as a Yankee)

What does all this mean? There is no question that Pedro would fit in on this team as a reliever. More than any of the numbers he put up during his Met's tenure, it was his experience and leadership that benefited the team the most. I agree that pitching in the NL is not the same as the AL, let alone the Al East, but as we all see almost every night as Yankee fans, knowing how to pitch is an art in itself and this guy is one of the best pitching minds ever. When I analyze his numbers over the decline of his career, I see a perfect bullpen guy. He knows how to get outs, he stays away from the long ball, pitches with accute control, and we all know his ability to get the big strike out. While he has lost severe velocity and has had shoulder problems, he's almost banned from being a starter ever again but a bullpen role would suit him perfectly. It really boggles my mind why this guy doesnt have a job yet period, beit as a starter or a reliver. David Wells could win 11 games in the NL this season, so not all starting jobs are out of the question for Pedro.

So just a little shout out to Brian Cashman, hell, you've made worse decisions before, give it a shot.

By James Miller

p.s. I hope to be guest blogging some more in the near future, Go Yanks!

Guest Post: Gotta Go’da Joba

I know you guys must be sick of watching this Yankees game today. So how about a guest post about the argument that just won't go away; Where Joba Chamberlain should be, the starting rotation or the bullpen? It comes to us from John Bonini of The Voice of Yankees Universe and this isn't your every day Joba-to-the-pen article. This is as much about why Phil Hughes needs to be in the rotation, as it is about Joba going to the bullpen. Give it a read and leave your comments below.

This is the first guest post we've had here at Sliding Into Home, and hopefully there will be more in the near future.

By John Bonini

Death, taxes, and the Joba debate. Really, are there any other certainties in lives of Yankee fans? Certainly not in the thoughts and minds of Yankee fans.

With Joba Chamberlain getting off to a pretty ordinary start in the rotation, coupled with the fact that there have really only been two reliable arms out of the pen thus far, the Joba-to-the-pen debate rages on.

However, instead of focusing my energies on why Joba should be in the bullpen, surely something you all have read in every degree, theory and perhaps language conceivable, I’d rather spend my time on why Phil Hughes should be residing just southeast of Scranton, Pa, throwing his innings in the Yankee starting rotation.

The reason behind this is simple; Phil Hughes has shown that he can more than an ordinary starting pitcher in the big leagues. Who can forget his near no-hitter in Texas in May of 2007, only Hughes’ second career big league start.

Or his performance in game 3 of the 2007 ALDS, where the rookie pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings after bailing out Roger Clemens to earn the win and extend the season to one more day.

Joba Chamberlain, too, has shown greatness. However, the young hurlers greatest moments, his highlights if you will, have come out of the pen. He’s been dominating, fearless, quick, economical, and just downright nasty out of the pen.

In the rotation however, most of this swagger is missing in action. He works at a more leisurely pace, throws too many pitches, walks too many bad hitters, and lacks that gusto that once had fans on their feet at the anticipation of Joba entering a game.

There seems to be a certain focus Joba takes to the mound with him in the late innings of close games that lies dormant when he starts. He works much more quickly out of the pen, throws more strikes, and seemingly strikes everyone out.

There should be no shame in this for Joba. Goose Gossage and Mariano Rivera, two Yankee closers who will be joined in the Hall of Fame one day, both started their respective careers as starters only later to find their true calling in the ninth inning—and in Goose’s case, sometimes even the 7th and 8th.

The Yankee pitching this season looks to be the best they’ve had this side 2004, but in my mind, there’s no denying that the Yankees are a better team with Job in the 8th, and Hughes in the rotation.

Hughes’ latest start came Friday night, where the righty tossed 5.2 scoreless innings, walking none while striking out six. After two starts this season, Hughes is 2-0, pitching to a 2.31 ERA.

Hughes detractors will point to his dreadful 2008 appearance in the majors, and for good reason. We all know the numbers. He went 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA before going down with a rib injury.

But after what he showed in 2007, I saw this as more of the exception than the rule, especially under the circumstances of his rib injury.

With the way Brian Bruney has been pitching, along with the curious case of Mariano Rivera, adding Joba to the mix would strengthen this team far more than it would weaken it, especially with Hughes waiting in the wings.

It seems like the right move to make, but one the Yankees have been reluctant to do, almost as if they’re looking out for the best interest of Joba Chamberlain rather than that of the organization itself.

In the back of their collective minds somewhere, Yankee brass must be pondering who is replacing Mo in two years. These types of guys with the fortitude to pitch in the late innings don’t grow on trees. With the right approach, the transition from Mo may not be as gloomy as it once appeared. The Yankees must come to terms with this fact, it’s time. Gotta go’da Joba.

(John Bonini writes for The Voice of Yankees Universe.)

You guys know my opinion, I think Joba should start and I'm not going to budge on that. But there's nothing wrong with having opposing opinions on the same blog. It probably makes it more interesting for the readers anyway.

Also, with Chien-Ming Wang pitching as poorly as he has, maybe Phil Hughes can find his way into the rotation without taking Joba out of the rotation. Right now I think Chien-Ming Wang needs a start or two in the minors so he can regain his confidence.

Greg's Note: Chien-Ming Wang cannot be sent to the minors. According to Joe Girardi via Kevin Devaney, "a team cannot send a player to the minors unless they have options or the player agrees and has at least five years of service. Wang has no options and hasn’t been in the majors long enough." So, uh, so much for that.