Rangers Win Rights To Darvish

Report: Yanks Not Getting Darvish

Just another report to confirm what most of us already knew. Here's the update via Marc Carig:

If Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish indeed throws his first major league pitch next season, it will not be in a Yankees uniform.

The Yankees are "not getting him," a person with knowledge of the situation said today, on condition of anonymity because the posting process is still ongoing. Darvish's Japanese team has until Tuesday to decide whether to accept the highest bid to negotiate with Darvish.

The Yankees submitted a bid. But the only way they can emerge with Darvish is if it proves to be the highest on the table, and the person with knowledge said the Yankees' bid will not be high enough to top those they believe were submitted by a pair of American League rivals, the Rangers and Blue Jays.

"A ridiculous number," the person with knowledge said, while declining to offer exact figures.

Winning Bid For Darvish Higher Than Dice-K's

From Franz Lidz:

Contrary to published reports, the top sealed bid submitted for star Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish on Wednesday was the highest in the history of the posting process, exceeding the record $51.1 million fee that the Boston Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions for the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2006, according to Japanese league officials.

Though the identity of the major league franchise that won exclusive negotiating rights to the 25-year-old right-hander has yet to be revealed, Japanese league officials say that the offer to Darvish's team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, is higher than the $40-48 million range that has been reported in the U.S. and Japan.

Wow, with the recent failures of Japanese pitchers I didn't think it would be that high. Oh well, still wish he was headed to the Bronx.

Looks Like The Jays Won The Darvish Bidding

From George A. King III:

Having made a posting bid above $40 million and possibly close to $50 million, the Blue Jays are the favorites to land the negotiating rights to Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish.

There is a belief the Cubs also made a large bid on the right-hander but a number hasn’t been attached to their bid.

The Yankees made a bid Wednesday night, but it’s not expected to top what the Blue Jays submitted. The Rangers are also believed to have bid.

According to several sources with knowledge of the situation, the Blue Jays’ made the monster bid on orders from owner Rogers Communications.

By Tuesday at 5 p.m. EST, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, for whom Darvish pitched the past seven years, will either accept the highest bid without knowing the identity of the team or reject it.

If accepted, the winning club will have 30 days to cut a deal with Darvish...

Great, not only will the Yankees not sign Darvish, but he's likely headed to a division rival.

Yanks Did Bid On Darvish

There are also rumors flying around that the Yankees bid was a modest one, but I believe that's just speculation at this point. However, if that was the case than the Yankees most likely won't be the winners.

If you're wondering it'll be a few days until we hear who won the bidding:

I'd really like to find out that the Yankees made the winning bid here, although itd doesn't seem likely.

Darvish Announces He's Coming To America

From the AP:

Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish ended months of speculation today by saying he intends to make a move to Major League Baseball.

The 25-year-old right-hander, considered the best pitcher in the Japanese professional leagues, wrote on his blog that he had decided to use the posting system, which allows MLB teams to bid for the negotiating rights to Japanese players who have yet to become free agents.

"I have decided to use the posting system," he said. "I wanted to tell my fans directly, so that is why I am posting this on my blog."

...

"I owe a lot of thanks to my team," Darvish said, adding he would provide more details at an upcoming news conference.

And let the bidding begin!

A Brief Blueprint for the Off-Season

Sign Mark Buehrle

Buehrle has started at least thirty games and tossed at least 201 IP in each of the last eleven seasons, and his ERA and FIP have been below-average exactly once in his career, way back in 2006. While he may not represent the "1B" to Sabathia's "1A" that many Yankees fans are clamoring for, such a pitcher does not exist on the market (and paying C.J. Wilson as if he is such a pitcher is foolhardy at best). Buehrle's consistency makes up for the modest upside, and I would have a great deal of faith in him as the Yankees Game 2 starter.

Sign Yu Darvish

You can find further thoughts on Darvish here. Suffice it to say that I believe in his potential, and that upside is worth the gamble, particularly when his posting fee would not count against the luxury tax. This assumes, of course, that Darvish is posted ... which is apparently fifty-fifty at this juncture.

Re-Sign Andruw Jones

Jones battered left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .286/.384/.540 slash line in 2011, good for a 151 wRC+, and he remains a solid defender in both left and right-field. In my mind, there isn't a better option on the market.

Trade A.J. Burnett

This is easier said than done, of course - but the Braves ability to unload Derek Lowe gives me the faintest glimmer of hope. Burnett has the look of a sunk cost at this juncture, and freeing up a roster spot and $6 MM or so (assuming the Yankees pick up around $10 MM per season) would be quite beneficial. If the Yankees can acquire a lottery ticket prospect along the way, that's just gravy.

Follow me on Twitter - @Domenic Lanza

Darvish to Come To The States? It's 50-50

Yu Darvish's father, Farsa Darvish, spoke about his son's future this weekend and Yu's move to the states might not be as likely as once thought:

“Yu and I are talking about having a family meeting once the Nippon Series is over.”

“At this point it’s about 50-50.”

Jeff Passan has more on the topic. Sources are saying that Darvish wants to change baseball.... in Japan. Darvish also apparently has a problem with the posting system.

(Hat-tip to LoHud)

Igawa Won't Stop Yanks From Going After Darvish

From Mark Feinsand:

After wasting $46 million on Kei Igawa over the past five years, would the Yankees be willing to roll the dice on another Japanese pitcher if Yu Darvish becomes available?

It’s very possible.

Hal Steinbrenner said Wednesday that the Igawa disaster wouldn’t stop the Yankees from signing another Japanese pitcher if that’s the move they believe makes the most sense.

“Every person is different; every player is different,” Steinbrenner said. “We’re going to look at every single one. We’re going to look at every single option, and we’re going to analyze it. It will be a go or no-go, but we look at each person as an individual.”

...

“It’s difficult when you don’t have as much film on a player to watch, and you don’t have as many scouts who have laid eyes on that player before,” Steinbrenner said of the risk associated with signing players from places such as Japan or Cuba. “There’s no doubt it’s difficult, but I had never heard of El Duque until he came here.

“There have certainly been players that came out of those countries that have been great. But there’s less intel and there’s less to go on, so you’ve really got to rely on the guys that have seen him down there, and the scouts that are down there on a full-time basis. But there’s no doubt it’s a more difficult decision.”

Glad to see the Yankees aren't going to let the Igawa mistake stop them from taking a real look at Darvish. From everything I've seen and read, he looks like the best pitcher to come out of Japan, and at least appears to have the biggest upside.

Scouts Say Buehrle's a Better Fit For Yanks Than Wilson

From Mark Feinsand:

C.J. Wilson is considered the best pitcher on the free agent market in most circles. Yet, when it comes to fitting inside the often hectic Yankees’ universe, several Major League talent evaluators believe Mark Buehrle might be the better fit.

“If you are looking for value, it’s Buehrle because the Yankees have CC Sabathia and aren’t looking for an ace,’’ an AL Central evaluator said of the 32-year-old Buehrle, who finished a four-year, $56 million deal with the White Sox this season.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has spoken briefly with representatives for Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson and Wilson, and plans to contact Jeff Berry, who represents Buehrle.

...

Three evaluators tabbed Buehrle over Wilson for the Yankees and two picked Wilson even though they admitted having questions whether the opinionated Wilson would be a good fit in New York.

“Stuff-wise, he is at 91 to 93. He has enough deception and just wild enough,’’ a veteran Wilson watcher said. “His stuff is more crisp than Buehrle’s.’’

I still like Wilson as the Yanks top FA pitching target. At least as far as American players go. Darvish, as I've said, is the wild card in all of this. The article even goes on to say that while the Yankees are showing interest in Wilson and Buehrle, their top priority may end up being Darvish.

Cashman Talks To Wilson's Agent & Some Info on Darvish

From George A. King III:

True to his word, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman reached out to C.J. Wilson’s agent yesterday.

“I would describe it as routine,” Cashman said of his talk with Bob Garber, Wilson’s representative.

...

And since Cashman said this week that even after retaining CC Sabathia that starting pitching remains a priority, it figures that Garber and the Yankees will continue talking.

King also mentions that the Yankees are monitoring Darvish, and are expected to take looks at Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt. (Earlier this week, it was reported that the Yankees did not have any interest in Oswalt, but this wouldn't exactly be the first false rumor we've heard.

Despite his poor October, I am in favor of signing Wilson. The bottom line is that since moving to the starting rotation in 2010 he's been one of the better pitchers in the AL, and if you can add him as a no. 2 behind CC for a reasonable contract the Yankees should do it.

Darvish is the wild card in all of this.

“He’s the real deal,” says ex-Yankee Darrell Rasner, who has spent the last three years pitching against Darvish for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in the Pacific League. “He’s the best pitcher there, in my opinion, and he’d do well in the States. He’s got a winning mentality.

“He seemed to toy with guys in Japan sometimes. When he needs to dial it up, he can really go after somebody with strikeout stuff. I’ve seen him add velocity late, get his fastball up to 96-plus (miles per hour) with guys in scoring position and strike out a couple of hitters.”

...

“The potential, it’s all there,” says Harold Reynolds, the former All-Star who is now an analyst for MLB Network and saw Darvish pitch in the WBC. “He can be a frontline starter and he’d have a lot of interest here.

“I’d be shocked if the Red Sox and the Yankees were not in it, particularly the Yankees,” Reynolds added. “You look at the Yankees, the state of their pitching. If he’s everything people say he is, and he lives up to it, he can be a dominating force in your rotation for five or six years.”

...

“I do think he’s coming,” said the executive, who has watched Darvish multiple times. “Because of the high-profile personnel that went there, and there’s not a lot of high-level pitching in this free-agent market. Maybe that encourages Darvish to make the move.”

But several baseball executives wondered if the Red Sox and Yankees’ struggles with recent Japanese imports — Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kei Igawa — might scare off some suitors. Neither pitcher now seems worth their price tags — $103 million for Matsuzaka, more than $46 million for Igawa.

...one [MLB exec] says, “He’s better than Matsuzaka. His body is unique and he added some good weight over the last year (about 20 pounds to get to about 200 pounds). The talent level is very high-end.

He also has apparently signed-on with Arn Tellem--Hideki Matsui's agent--to deal with MLB if he does decide to leave Japan.

Yankees May Not Be Willing to Spend Big on Darvish

Given the veritable bevy of issues with a pitcher transitioning from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball, I suppose I cannot fault the Yankees brass for some hesitancy in throwing money at Darvish and the Nippon Ham Fighters. However, the fact that the Igawa signing was an exercise in idiocy from the get-go should not in and of itself hinder the team's efforts going forward. I wish that someone would step-up and admit that Igawa was not a terribly promising import from the beginning, as opposed to showcasing his struggles as a reason to avoid Japanese pitchers on the whole.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Pros & Cons: C.J. Wilson v. Yu Darvish

C.J. Wilson
Pros

• Left-handed
• Strong performance in AL, in a hitter's park
• Limited wear and tear (less than 1300 IP in professional career)
• Above-average groundball and strikeout rates
• Improved across the board in second full season as a starter
• Above-average ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2010 and 2011
• Top-10 in AL in fWAR, bWAR, ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2011

Cons

• Will be 31 in November
• Only two full seasons as a starter limits the usefulness and overall reliability of the data
• Would cost a first-round draft pick to sign
  

Yu Darvish
Pros

• Far better NPB resume than previous imports, including Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu, Hideo Nomo, and Hiroki Kuroda (the most successful Japanese pitcher in MLB)
• Possibly the best pitcher in NPB history - career 1.99 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 3.75 K/BB
  
• International scouts grade his fastball and slider as plus pitches
• Only 25-years-old
• Very successful in World Baseball Classic
• Durable, with 200+ IP in four of last five years
• Simple, repeatable delivery
• Will not cost a draft pick; posting fee does not count against luxury tax
  

Cons

• Has logged nearly 1300 IP at age-25
• Potential transitioning issues - heavier ball with higher seams, pitching every fifth day instead of once a week, and higher level of competition (most compare NPB to AAA) in MLB
• General lack of success of Japanese players in MLB

In my mind, neither Wilson nor Darvish is a sure thing.

Though Wilson has been incredibly successful over these past two seasons, his resume is lacking otherwise (and his relief career was plagued by inconsistency). Hindsight bias aside, I do think he's a safer bet than A.J. Burnett ... but to what degree I am not quite sure.

Darvish's success in the NPB is simply jaw-dropping, on an entirely different level than any other pitcher we've ever seen. Unlike Matsuzaka and Igawa, it does seem like the only issue with Darvish's transition is the general malaise of prior imports, as opposed to questions regarding his stuff. That being said, the transition is far from simple and the degree to which others have failed is sometimes staggering.

In the end, I would prefer Yu Darvish by the slimmest of margins. I view him as a top-notch prospect with a bevy of experience, and the lesser hit to the luxury tax and ability to retain the first-round pick is quite important. Wilson's floor is higher than Darvish's, but his ceiling is equally lower - and he's not quite safe enough for me to not roll the dice.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

Darvish Asks To Be Posted

From The Mainichi Daily News:

The Yu Darvish sweepstakes are set to begin.

Nippon Ham Fighters ace Darvish, long said to be Japanese baseball's next biggest export to the majors, is ready to make a move stateside through the posting system this offseason, Kyodo News learned through several sources on Tuesday.

The 25-year-old Darvish, the highest paid player in Japanese baseball at an estimated 500 million yen per season, is expected to officially ask the Fighters to put him up for bidding after the postseason.

...

The Fighters are likely to grant Darvish his request.

"If he wants to play at a higher level, then that's his wish," Nippon Ham owner Hiroji Okoso said.

"It's really up to him," a source at the team said. "That was the conclusion they reached after a series of talks."

Darvish went 18-6 in 28 starts with a 1.44 ERA, 261 K and 35 BB in 223 innings pitched. It was also the fourth straight year that Darvish posted a sub-2.00 ERA.

Sherman: Yanks Likely To Be In Mix To Land Darvish

Remember Yu Darvish? Well, he'll be heading from Japan to the big leagues next season and Joel Sherman had this on Darvish today::

One player the Yankees have scouted heavily is Yu Darvish. And there is strong belief around the game that the top starter in Japan will, indeed, be posted this offseason and come to the States.

“He is coming, period,” one personnel man said.

The Yankees have had sour experience with high-profile Japanese pitchers Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa, whose five-year contract finally expires this year. And the last can’t-miss Japanese pitcher to come to the majors, Daisuke Matsuzaka, was hardly a bonanza for the Red Sox.

So you wonder if there will be greater financial caution with Darvish this winter or will the hunger for pitching motivate teams to bid. I will say this, I have not sensed that the Igawa experience will take the Yankees, for example, out of the Japanese market place.

Darvish is certainly attractive as a pitcher. He is 6-foot-5, just 25 years old, pitches at 93-94 mph with the ability to touch higher than that and he is known for having an inventive and competitive spirit on the mound. He is currently 15-3 with 1.59 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 158 innings for the Nippon Ham Fighters.

If they believe he's the real deal, they should go after him, regardless of the Igawa or Irabu disasters. Sherman doesn't seem to think they will be scared off by that, but you never know.

Do you think the Yanks should go after Darvish?