Derek Jeter's Range

I am well aware of the stigma attached to fielding metrics. The flaws are plentiful, the available data has several holes, and the inability to trust said metrics without two to three seasons' worth of data seems rather inane. While I am far more willing to invest in UZR and DRS and the like than I am to trust my own eyes, I'm also loath to trust the numbers until play-by-play, hit F/X, and pitch F/X data is properly incorporated. With that in mind, I would like to try to demonstrate Jeter's defensive range (or lack thereof) with readily available, easily understood data.

Based on innings, Jeter has played the equivalent of 126 games at shortstop - that's good for seventh in Major League Baseball. From here, most would point to Jeter's league-leading fielding percentage as a means to demonstrate his defensive prowess ... and that isn't entirely without merit. In my mind, Jeter is very sure-handed, and he tends to make the play when he gets to the ball. That being said ... Jeter simply doesn't get to the ball all that much (relative to other shortstops).

As of the morning of 11 September, Jeter averages 3.8 total chances per defensive game. That is, he fields an average of 3.8 balls per game. Among shortstops with at least 100 games at the position, Jeter ranks 20th in chances per game ... out of twenty. Among shortstops with at least 500 innings at the position, Jeter ranks 31st in chances per game ... out of thirty-two.

This is certainly not a perfect measure of a shortstop's range. While I can say with confidence that Yankees pitchers generate a league-average amount of groundballs and a league-average amount of balls in play, I am unsure as to whether or not the number of those balls hit to the left are on-par with league-average. Robinson Cano does lead all second baseman in total chances, so perhaps more grounders are hit to the right ... at the same time, however, Cano's advanced metrics suggest that he's a fantastic fielder.

Gauging the Defense - June Edition

The Yankees currently rank fifteenth in the Majors in both UZR and DRS, having improved a bit in both categories (though dropping in overall ranking in DRS). As we approach the All-Star Break, the team numbers have become more trustworthy, as the sample sizes are much more manageable and reasonable. With that being said, here's how the individual players stack up (keeping in mind that UZR does not grade catchers):

Francisco Cervelli: 0 DRS

Jorge Posada: -2 DRS

Mark Teixeira: 0 DRS, -3.6 UZR

Robinson Cano: +14 DRS, 5.6 UZR

Derek Jeter: +2 DRS, -0.4 UZR

Alex Rodriguez: +3 DRS, -0.3 UZR

Brett Gardner: +2 DRS, 1.4 UZR

Curtis Granderson: +4 DRS, 4.9 UZR

Nick Swisher: +1 DRS, -1.2 UZR

There are no real surprises here - Teixeira hasn't looked as solid as in years past (at least to my eye), and Cano has shown a great deal of improvement from season to season, and now appears to be one of the best in the league.

April Edition.

May Edition.

Gauging the Defense - May Edition

Here's the April Edition.... At the end of May, the Yankees ranked 17th in the majors in UZR and 12th in DRS, a fair improvement in both systems. UZR, in particular, sees the Yankees as much improved overall, jumping from -6.1 to 1.9. Without further ado, let's see how the team stacks up on an individual basis:

Francisco Cervelli

• UZR: N/A
  
• DRS: -2
  

Mark Teixeira

• UZR: -0.6
• DRS: +1

Robinson Cano

• UZR: -0.5
• DRS: +8

Alex Rodriguez

• UZR: -0.4
• DRS: +1

Derek Jeter

• UZR: 1.0
• DRS: +4

Brett Gardner

• UZR: 2.3
• DRS: +5

Curtis Granderson

• UZR: 2.5
• DRS: +5

Nick Swisher

• UZR: 1.0
• DRS: -1

Gauging the Defense - April Edition

With the exception of the infamous 'intangibles,' defense is the hardest aspect of the game to quantify. Defensive metrics are in their infancy and, as a result there are still many kinks being worked out - and I'm sure that some (many, in fact) would argue that they aren't worth their weight in breadcrumbs. While there are inarguably a fair amount of faults, I feel that defensive metrics are, at the very worst, better than most of our opinions on glovework - I cannot speak for everyone, but I certainly do not see enough plays over the course of the season to accurately compare and contrast different players. With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to do a monthly series on the Yankees defense - individually and on the team level.

For the purpose of this series, I will be utilizing UZR and DRS (more commonly known as John Dewan's plus-minus). Both are based on play-by-play data and batted ball profiles, which makes them more accurate than fielding percentage and the like.

	UZR	DRS
Jorge Posada	N/A	-1
Mark Teixeira	0.0	+4
Robinson Cano	-2.9	+2
Alex Rodriguez	1.8	+1
Derek Jeter	-2.3	-2
Brett Gardner	-0.7	+2
Curstis Granderson	1.4	+5
Nick Swisher	-0.7	-1

One of the reasons I included UZR and DRS was to illustrate the point that small sample sizes have a large impact on these metrics. In my mind, the impact of small sample sizes on defense is far greater than its influence on offense or pitching. As such, much of this must be taken with a grain of salt.

Overall, the defense looks fairly solid. With the exception of Jeter, each defender appears to be about average (at worst) - a far cry from years past wherein the Yankees defense ranked among the very worst in the game historically speaking. Cano and Gardner illustrate the issues with both small sample sizes and defensive metrics - whereas the formulas aren't too similar, it is odd to see them in stark contrast in two cases.

Here's how the Yankees shake out as a team:

-6.1 UZR (26th in MLB)
+8 DRS (14th in MLB)

I should add that very few players and teams are terribly negative as rated by DRS thus far, but I do hope that the Yankees defense is performing as reflected by Dewan's formula. The UZR bit leaves something of a bad taste in my mouth...

To wrap things up, here are the best fielders at each position, as rated by a quick and dirty combination of UZR and DRS:

C - Matt Wieters/Joe Mauer
1B - Kendry Morales
2B - David Eckstein
3B - Jose Lopez
SS - J.J. Hardy
LF - Carl Crawford
CF - Austin Jackson
RF - Nelson Cruz

Check out this play by Mark Buehrle

This happened yesterday in Chicago:



Wow!

Sherman: Granderson Will Be Named Starting Center Fielder

Joel Sherman is reporting this morning that the Yankees will announce that Curtis Granderson will be the starting center fielder.

The Yankees had come to spring training open minded about the possibility of Granderson playing left and Brett Gardner manning center. They had both statistical data and late-season eyeball scouting to suggest Granderson had slipped defensively as a center fielder while believing that Gardner had a chance to be one of the rangiest center fielders in the game.

And, early in camp, Granderson did give the Yankees concern by not looking especially effective in center, particularly in his penchant for taking awkward routes.

However, as camp has progressed, Granderson has played center better and better, well enough that the Yankees have not seen a significant gap between him and Gardner defensively. And in order to move the more established player off of his position, the Yanks were going to have to feel that Gardner was far superior in center to Granderson.

Sherman goes on to say that the Yankees preferred not to move Granderson from center since he was their "key acquisition" this offseason and "wanted him to get comfortable as quickly as possible." According to Sherman, the Yankees are also concerned that Gardner won't be able to stay in the lineup as an everyday player, which would force them into the sticky situation of having to move Granderson back to center during the season.

Like I said earlier in the spring, regardless of where Granderson and Gardner play, the team's outfield defense should improve greatly, so whichever way the Yankees went was fine with me.

Teixeira, UZR and clutchness

In yesterday's Bergen Record, Bob Klapisch spoke to Mark Teixeira about his -3.6 UZR in 2009. Tex felt like he was better in 2009 than in 2008, when his UZR was 10.7 and his sentiment can be summed up with this portion of the article:

If you wonder which side you belong to, ask yourself: Is baseball art or science? Is it beautiful or just data for the spreadsheet? You’d be right if you said "both," but most ballplayers, including Teixeira, reject the notion that UZR and other metrics are better evaluators than those who are on the field.

"Look, if computers could run the game, why bother having general managers?" Teixeira said. Sort of like the post-Judgment Day world in "Terminator," where humans have been deposed in a machine-controlled society.

That’s obviously an overstated metaphor. But it feels that way to Teixeira, who says UZR is incapable of quantifying his most significant defensive asset: scooping balls in the dirt. He calls it a "gift" that can be honed with practice and hard work. But just like throwing hard and running fast, you either have that gene or you don’t. Teixeira says, "Picking (a short hop) is the most important thing I can do for my infielders or my pitcher or my catcher.

In general, players that have low UZR’s tend to criticize defensive metrics and players that post high UZR’s tend to think that defensive metrics help to show their true value – everyone looks at the stats that show them in the best light. It's self interest – we probably all do the same thing at work.

While I disagree with Tex’s belief that defensive metrics don’t accurately measure a players defensive ability, I do agree with his sentiment about UZR’s inability to account for his ability to pick the ball at 1B. As I stated in a post about the Yankees defense last week, UZR tends to undervalue 1B’s and overvalue C’s. One of the biggest problems, as Tex points out above, is that UZR does not give a 1B any more credit for scooping balls, and Tex is as good as it gets. So obviously UZR doesn't tell the whole story for first baseman. It is also important to look at three years or more of UZR to get a true read on a players defense – looking at one year is too small of a sample size.

Tex is a good 1B - one of the better ones in the game. To help get a more complete understanding of Teixeira's defensive prowess, let's look at another defensive metric - Dewan Plus-Minus (+/-). Joe Posnanski does a better job than I would at defining it in layman's terms:

"My go-to defensive statistic, this was invented by John Dewan, and as I understand it, the numbers determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus."

In 2009 his +/- numbers put him at 0, and for the three years prior, 2006 – 2008, Mark Teixeira was 6th in all of baseball with a +22; Albert Pujols was first at +82 (wow!).

I didn’t find it that interesting that Tex was questioning defensive metrics, what I found most interesting (and annoying) about this article was a throw in quote at the end of the piece:

But here’s the kicker: Sabermetrics don’t acknowledge a phenomenon known as "clutch."

Derek Jeter’s "intangibles" similarly are dismissed. "Oh, come on," Teixeira said. "You can’t say Derek isn’t different than a lot of hitters when the game is on the line. Or that Johnny wasn’t able to put up great at-bats against the toughest closers. Matsui was the same way. He was a monster when it counted.

"Certain players can say to themselves, ’It’s time to step it up,’ " Teixeira said, although he knows UZR doesn’t quite get that. Maybe someday.

Can a single hit or play be considered "clutch?" I guess so - you can call any bit play "clutch." Is there such a thing as a clutch hitter or clutch hitting? Probably not.

I know that everyone thinks Derek Jeter is a “clutch” player or that Arod was “un-clutch” prior to last post season. However, there is no statistical evidence to bear this out. It may be blasphemy as a Yankee fan to say that Derek Jeter isn’t clutch, but I’ll say it – players don't have the ability to perform above their true talent level in high pressure situations. If players did have this "clutch" ability, then there should be some repeatable statistical evidence to prove it - that is, the player should show that he performs above his talent level in "clutch" situations year after year.

I will write a more detailed post about this, but let's take a look at a rudimentary example. Here are the slash lines of two players (AVG/OBP/SLG) - which one is the "clutch" hitter?

• Player A - .317/.388/.459
• Player B - .313/.383/.479

Player A is really Derek Jeter. Those are his career slash lines during the regular season. Player B is also Derek Jeter. Those are his career slash lines during the playoffs. Jeter performs almost exactly the same in the regular season and the post season (presumably, high pressure games).

Tex has a point regarding UZR, but he is way off base when it comes to the clutch abilities of his teammates.

The Yankees will hit, but can they catch the ball?

Defense is becoming an increasingly important part of the game. The Mariners and the Red Sox have bet their post-season prospects on taking away runs as opposed to trying to out-slug the other team. Gone are the days when a team will pay and play a slugger that kills them in the field (unless you are Adam Dunn or Jason Bay – both of whom are so bad on defense that they negate almost all of their offensive value, but that’s a whole other post).

Defensive metrics are imperfect – and we probably aren’t aware of the best metrics because teams keep their proprietary methods for evaluating defense private. Errors and fielding percentage are just plain dumb. They are determined by a non-baseball player keeping score in the booth. UZR, plus/minus, defensive efficiency and range factor have begun to creep into baseball lexicon, but they are still, for the most part, ignored.

The Yankees have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball and the offense is going to score at least 900 runs – those are givens. I wanted to take a look at the Yankees defensive alignment to see how it might impact the team. I’ve tried to break down each position and then reach a conclusion on team defense.

C – Jorge Posada/Fransico Cervelli. It is very difficult to assess catchers defensive prowess – most of my opinion here is pure speculation. While Girardi has said that Posada will catch between 100 – 120 games, entering his age 38 season, it is difficult to determine how many games Posada will see behind the plate (only 5 catchers have caught more than 100 games in a season at 38). Posada’s defense has always been suspect, but in his prime, his bat has hidden his defensive deficiencies. I love Jorge, really I do! However, if you objectively look at his defense (C is the most difficult positions to put a defensive value on) – CS%, CERA (not the best stat), WP’s & PB’s – an objective observer will conclude that Posada is at best average, but more likely towards the bottom of the league in terms of defensive catchers. Cervelli is almost impossible to get a read on because of the small sample size of innings caught at the Major League level. As much as I hate to use anecdotal evidence, Cervelli seems to have the confidence of all the pitchers (CC Sabathia said that if Cervelli wasn’t awarded a full WS Share he would pay it out of his pocket) and he is highly regarded among scouts. Overall, I predict that the Yankees catchers will be, at best league average, but more likely will be slightly below average.

1B – Mark Teixeira. Teixeira’s defense at 1B is a paradox wrapped in an enigma. If you watched every defensive inning in 2009 you probably think Tex is a magic man at 1B, if you look at his UZR/150 you would say he is just average. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. 1B and C are the two position that UZR is less than optimal at determining true defensive value – it over values C’s and undervalues 1B’s. If you look at Tex’s last three years of UZR/150 (you really need at least three years of UZR data to get a true read on a player's defense) his defense has been worth a grand total of 0.0 runs – 2007: -5.2, 2008: 9.3, 2009: -4.1. I didn’t see every inning of Tex’s defense last year, but I saw in excess of 90% of them. My eyes tell me that he was worth more than -4.1 runs at 1B.

His range to his left or right isn’t fantastic, but he is a vacuum cleaner for bad balls throw his way by his colleagues. Tex’s defensive value at 1B isn’t derived by snagging potential doubles hit down the 1B line. His real value comes from the confidence he instills among the other infielders. Tex makes the other infielders better – the papers are filled with quotes from Cano, Jeter and Rodriguez about how they know if they can get the ball in the general direction of 1B that Tex will scoop it – UZR isn’t able to measure that. Despite what UZR says, I say Tex is among the elite defensive 1B’s in baseball. I hate the kind of judgments that are based on what you see as opposed to what you can statistically measure – but I’m making an exception for Tex.

2B – Robinson Cano. Cano may have the best arm of any 2B in the AL and he makes a lot of flashy plays on slowly balls hit into the hole to his left (towards 1B) but overall, Cano’s defense leaves something to be desired. Cano’s last three years of UZR/150 have him worth -0.9 runs. However, UZR/150 paints a different picture if you look at Cano’s year by year UZR/150 rating for each year of his career – 2005: -21.1, 2006: -3.1, 2007: 11.3, 2008: -7.0, 2009: -5.2. To help put those numbers in perspective, in 2009 only two 2B’s (Alberto Callaspo, -7.5 & Brian Roberts, -8.7) in the AL were worse than Cano and in 2008 only one 2B (Alexei Ramirez, -10.6) in the AL was worse. 2007 appears to be the outlier – Cano is more likely to be somewhere closer to his 08/09 numbers in 2010 which would put him at or near the bottom of AL second basemen.

SS – Derek Jeter. The issue of Derek Jeter’s defense has been debated, rehashed and beaten like a dead horse for several years – I don’t want to debate it all again here, so I will be brief. Despite what I wrote about Tex, I generally agree with Billy Beane who once said something to the effect of “I might be a better GM if I never saw a game in person.” When it comes to defense, our eyes can often deceive us – especially in the case of Derek Jeter. Jeter always seems to be in the right place at the right time (a big playoff game), he makes the jump throw look easy and he dives into stands, but no matter how much you or I love Derek Jeter, it is difficult to conclude anything other than that his defense is average (if we are being generous – and don’t start with the Gold Gloves, he didn’t deserve any of them).

A new offseason training regimen supposedly improved Jeter’s first step speed which translated into a better UZR. Since 2002, Jeter has only posted a positive UZR/150 once: 8.4 in 2009 (5^th among AL shortstops). Can he do that again in 2010? I don’t know. It is very rare for a player to improve his defense as he moves into his mid 30’s. Jeter’s track record certainly doesn’t bode well and the Captain is a year older. As long as Jeter doesn’t fall back to his atrociously bad defensive years of 2005 (UZR/150 -12.6: means he cost the team at least 1 win) and 2007 (UZR/150 -16.7: means he cost the team 1.5 wins) the Yankees can live with his defense. If I were a betting man, I would bet that his UZR and overall defense drops back to costing the team 5 or 6 runs over the course of the season – or about .5 wins.

3B – Alex Rodriguez. Coming off of hip surgery, Arod was pretty bad in the field last year. If the ball was hit right at him, he was fine – but if he had to range to either direction, it’s a hit. Since moving to 3B Arod has been a slightly below average defender. His UZR/150 ratings for the last four years are 2006: -12.4, 2007: 2.3, 2008: -3.2, 2009 -11.7. With another year between him and hip surgery, Arod should be a vastly improved defender – but don’t be expecting Adrianne Beltre to show up in pinstripes. Expect Alex to post a negative UZR/150 and be a slightly sub-par defensive 3B.

LF – Brett Gardner. I love Brett Gardner – I predict he will be a 3.5 WAR player this year (that’s better than Johnny Damon). Defensively, Gardner is probably a better CF than Curtis Granderson – but there is no reason to move Granderson off of a position he has played his whole career. Besides, LF in Yankee Stadium has a lot of ground to cover and covering a lot of ground is what Gardner does best. UZR/150 can vary quite a bit from year to year, so it is always better to have at least three years worth of data. Even taking into account the limited number of innings that Gardner has in LF and the OF in general, UZR/150 shows Gardner to be a very good defensive outfielder. This confirms what I have seen with my eyes – when the ball is hit, Gardner is on his horse and tracking it down. He really does cover a lot of ground in the OF.

While I was researching Brett Gardner’s defensive value, I stumbled across a piece written by Dave Cameron – A Gardner Worth His Weight, where Cameron notes that:

“If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.”

I’ve seen a lot of Gardner and have always thought that he had a slightly above average arm for a CF, but didn’t realize that it was so statistically significant. Now, these numbers could be the product of teams testing out Gardner’s arm in less than optimal situations – I think that is how Melky Cabrera racked up a lot of outfield assists when he first arrived on the scene. However, even if the Yankees only realize the low end of the numbers on Gardner’s defense he will be a big upgrade over Johnny Damon in LF. Over the course of a full season, I expect Gardner to post a UZR/150 of 15+, which would put him among the elite defensive LF’s baseball.

CF – Curtis Granderson. A lot has been made of Granderson taking bad routes to balls in the 2^nd half of last year. I don’t know if that was something fluky, a vision problem or lack of preparedness. What I do know is that Granderson has posted some pretty stellar UZR/150 numbers over the course of his career, although they have been declining in the last three years. His last three years UZR/150 are 2007: 12.9, 2008: -9.4, 2009: 1.6. 2008 seems to be an anomaly in terms of how poorly Granderson played. It is the only year that he has posted a negative UZR, however he did follow it up with a very average 1.6 in 2009. Is he as good as he was in 2006 and 2007? Absolutely not, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in 2008. Having Granderson and Gardner in the OF is like having two above average CF’s out there. With Gardner in LF, Granderson should be able to cheat a little bit and cover some extra ground in right center which will be a help to Nick Swisher.

RF – Nick Swisher. Swisher doesn’t have anywhere near the range that Granderson or Gardner does, but he plays a solid RF. Swishers UZR numbers are all over the place because, over the last three years, he has played all three outfield positions and spent significant time at 1B. If you look at his last three years of outfield data, Swisher has posted UZR/150’s of 2007: 4.9, 2008: 0.9, 2009 -1.7 – so essentially he has be an average outfielder not costing his team any runs on defense. He doesn’t have Jessie Barfield’s arm and that did cost the team some runs last year. With the weight loss I suspect Swish will improve his range just a tad and continue to be a league average right fielder.

What does all of this add up to? We can expect the Yankees to be, at best, a middle of the pack defensive team. Granderson and Cano will occasionally misplay the routine ball, but the rest of the team will generally field anything hit right at them. Besides Gardner and Granderson we shouldn’t expect to see Yankees appearing on Web Gems too often. The defense is probably going to cost them a significant number of runs over the course of the year – fortunately, none of the defenders are dreadfully bad and the Yankee offense should be able to overcome most of their defensive deficiencies.

Carig's Q&A With Jesus Montero

Marc Carig recently spoke with Yankees top prospect Jesus Montero and asked him about his throwing, hitting long home runs, and fixing cars. Here is some of the Q&A:

Now they’ve even changed your throwing mechanics to help you get rid of the ball quicker?

They’ve tried to help me a little bit to throw the ball faster to second base. Last year, I got a lot of outs when they told me that, more than before. I’ve been working really good with that. Now, let’s wait for the game, see what we can do. ... Now I feel more comfortable because I get rid of the ball quicker than before.

You’re always smiling when you’re hitting. What is it about hitting that makes it look like you’re having a great time out there?

I like to have fun when I’m hitting. I love to hit. If we don’t hit in baseball, it’s not baseball. This is the best thing in my life: hit home runs, have fun, hit batting practice. Hitting for me is the best thing in my life.

...

Do you think it’s realistic right now, to be in the majors this season?

Well, that’s what I’m hoping for this year, for that opportunity. I want to be with them. I want to help the team this year. I’m working really hard right now, every single day, to get better and get the opportunity to play with them.

...

If it doesn’t work out at catcher, have you given any thought to what position you want to play?

I don’t know. Maybe in the future, two, three, five years more, maybe they’re going to put me in another position. But I’m working to be a catcher. I want to be in the big leagues as a catcher.

It doesn’t seem that you’ve got another position in mind.

No. I want to be a catcher with the Yankees.

It's good to see how determined he is to be a big league catcher, especially for those of us who are hoping that's where he ends up. For a player who has a lot working against him on the defensive end, that kind of determination is the only thing that will help Montero get over those hurdles.

Thinking about my last post on Posada, this is one of those areas where his leadership and team-first mentality help a lot. Sure, he may not want to relinquish his role as the team's starting catcher, but he's willing to help guys like Montero, even if it's not the best thing for Jorge Posada.

Between the effort and determination Montero is showing, the help from teammates like Posada, and the work of the Yankees coaches (minors & majors), Montero chances of becoming the big league catcher he wants to be aren't as slim as some might think.

2010 UZR Projections

Beyond the Box Score's Jeff Zimmerman has come out with UZR projections for the 2010 season. All the data can be found on this spreadsheet, and the math used to determine the numbers is here. (hat-tip to River Ave. Blues)

As you may or may not know, the higher the number on the positive side the better. Here's how the Yanks projections look, along with this year's numbers:

Position/Player	2009 UZR	2010 Projections
1B – Mark Teixeira	-3.7	+0.6
2B – Robinson Cano	-5.2	-1.7
SS – Derek Jeter	+6.6	-1.9
3B – Alex Rodriguez	-8.6	-3.8
LF – Johnny Damon	-12.1	-2.8
CF – Johnny Damon	----	-5
CF – Brett Gardner	+7.2	+3.7
LF – Melky Cabrera	-2.5	+0.9
RF – Melky Cabrera	-0.5	-0.1
CF – Melky Cabrera	+1.4	-1.9
RF – Nick Swisher	-0.7	+0.4
LF – Nick Swisher	-0.5	+0.7

Surprisingly, the projections call for improvement by most of the Yankees, with Jeter, Melky in center, and Gardner being the only Yankees who are not projected to improve.

Is Jeter on his was to his first legitimate gold glove?

We all know the gold glove award is a popularity contest and usually the most deserving players lose out to the big name guys. That's how Jeter won his first three gold gloves. What, you thought it was his stellar defense?

If you don't believe me let's look at some stats, specifically UZR/150, which is "UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games." UZR, or Ultimate Zone Rating, is "The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined." So basically if you have a negative UZR that's the number of runs you've cost your team, and if it's positive that's the number of runs you've saved for your team.

Jeter won gold gloves three years in a row from 2004 to 2006. In 2004 he had the ninth worst UZR/150 in the majors at -0.4, in '05 he sunk to the third worst with a -12.6, and in '06 he had the fourth worst with -7.2.

Now let's fast forward to 2009, a season where I can tell with my own eyes that Jeter is having by far his best defensive year ever, and you know what, the stats back it up. As NoMaas pointed out last night Jeter currently ranks fourth in all of baseball and second in the American League behind only Elvis Andrus of the Rangers with a +9 UZR/150.

A couple things have led to Jeter's improved defense, one being Mark Teixeira and his gold glove over at first base. He's probably saved the Captain at least five or six throwing errors already this year. But there's another thing that's helped even more than Tex, and that's his improved range. As Bryan Hoch pointed out last week, Jeter has worked very hard on improving that area of his game and it's paying off big time.

Upon recommendation from the Yankees, Jeter had already started working to improve his range and mobility.

The Yanks saw some improvement in 2008, and as Jeter's second full season under the new conditioning program passes the midway point, the numbers are again focused on one of their favorite subjects. But this time, the raw data claims that Jeter, 35, is playing his best defensive baseball since he was in his 20s.

I happen to think he's playing his best defensive baseball ever.... Hoch goes on:

Upon recommendation from the Yankees, Jeter had already started working to improve his range and mobility.

The Yanks saw some improvement in 2008, and as Jeter's second full season under the new conditioning program passes the midway point, the numbers are again focused on one of their favorite subjects. But this time, the raw data claims that Jeter, 35, is playing his best defensive baseball since he was in his 20s.

Defensive positioning has also helped Jeter get to some balls he would not have in years past.

Thanks to a number of variables, Jeter has continued to find ways to turn back the hands of time defensively this year. He continued to follow the program outlined by Yankees strength and conditioning coach Dana Cavalea, but he has also been assisted by aggressive defensive positioning on the part of infield coach Mick Kelleher.

What Jeter has done is borderline ridiculous, and he deserves a ton of credit for doing so. Seriously, can you name any other ballplayer that has improved this much defensively at 35 years of age? Usually this is the time when they're moving positions because they just can't cut it anymore. Jeter looks like he well on his way to getting his fourth gold glove of his hall of fame career, and this time he'll finally deserve it.

Keith Hernandez Not Impressed By Tex

From Bob Raissman via Marc Carig:

A lack of modesty? Or was Keith Hernandez just being honest? When asked Sunday (third inning, Rays-Mets) if any current first baseman reminded him of him, the SNY analyst said, "No ... I don't think there's really anyone outstanding out there." It took awhile, but Gary Cohen finally brought up Mark Teixeira. Mex said he liked Tex but added: "Not a whole lot of range. Not smooth, but gets the job done." Hernandez, still adept at going to his backhand (compliment) side.

As Marc Carig points out the numbers seem to back up Hernandez's theory:

With a free agent payday looming last season, Teixeira posted his first above-average defensive numbers since 2004, while playing for the Braves and Angels. He posted a 10.6 ultimate zone rating, which takes into account how many runs a fielder is saving or costing his team when compared to the average fielder.

But in his first season as a Yankee, Teixeira's UZR has fallen to a below average -.1.9.

UZR is broken into different components that account for errors and other factors. In Teixeira's case, his dropoff is tied almost entirely to his decline in the portion of UZR that accounts specifically for range. In 2008, Teixeira saved 9.4 runs just on his range. This season, he's cost his team runs, posting a -3.6.

Maybe it's because I had become so used to watching Jason Giambi, but while seeing Teixeira play first this year I thought I was watching a great first baseman. In fact, I still do. I think a lot of the problems with his range came early in the year when and Cano seemed to have a little trouble figuring out who was going to get balls hit in between them. There were a lot of balls that got past Tex on his right side in April that he's been gobbling up ever since.

Carig also points out that UZR doesn't take into account all those errors he's saved while scooping balls out of the dirt, which at this point seemed to be coming at a clip of about one play a game.

Random Link Dump

I may have to run out of the house for most of the evening, so here's some links to keep you busy.

First for a couple articles about something that has not been a bright spot the last few years, but may be taking a turn for the better, the Yankees defense.

- This ESPN Insider article projects the Yankees to have a significant improvement on the defensive end, in fact they picked the Yankees as one of three teams who will improve greatly on the defensive end. (You will need an Insider Subscription for the full article.)

Yankees (2008 FRAA: –26 | 2009 Projection: +9)
First basemen are rarely impact defenders, but two-time Gold Glove winner Mark Teixeira is a significant exception. Plus he replaces Jason Giambi, who had only slightly less range than the Miller Huggins monument at Yankee Stadium. If Jorge Posada has trouble coming back from right shoulder surgery, take note: Backup José Molina, one of the best defensive catchers in the game, threw out 44% of potential basestealers last year.

- Dan Turkenkopf over at Beyond the Box Score posted this graph about the Yankees outfielders. It shows how well Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, and Xavier Nady cover individual sections of the outfield. He used David Pinto's Defensive Charts based on his Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR).

The greener the better the fielder covers that particular zone, and the redder the worse the fielder covers that zone. Also the only reason the corner outfielders zones are so close to the infield is so it's easier to read the graph.

- Joe Pawlikowski over at River Ave. Blues breaks down Robinson Cano's defense using Bill James' The Fielding Bible–Volume II.

And yesterday he broke down the Captain's defense.

- Speaking of Derek Jeter, Steve Lombardi from WasWatching.com explains what Jeter does well on the defensive side of the ball, He also uses The Fielding Bible - Volume II. What he discusses is that Jeter made the least amount of "defensive misplays" last season. For some more on how Bill James defines defensive misplays let's look at this from Lombardi:

this measure looks at things such as a fielder letting a ball roll under glove or between his legs, juggling or dropping a ball on a smooth play that might have gotten an out, making a poor throw, mishandling a pivot, cutting off a better-positioned fielder and failing to make a play, losing a ball in the sun, hesitating or double-clutching before making a throw and losing the play, having a ball get stuck in their glove, giving away the lead runner to take a play at first (when they clearly could have gotten the lead runner), etc.

So basically, if Jeter gets to a ball he's likely to field it cleanly. More so than any shortstop in the league. Now if only he could figure out how to get to more balls...

- For more on defensive stats and metrics check out this article from ESPN's Eric Neel.

- David Pinto over at Baseball Musings previews the AL East. He thinks the Yankees have a 32% chance of winning the division. He says the Sox have a 30% chance, the Rays have a 28% chance, the Jays a 6% chance, and the O's have a 4% chance. To know why he comes to this conclusion check out the rest of his post here.

- Ken Rosenthal explains just how crazy the upcoming season could be for the Yankees.

- CC Sabathia is this week's cover boy for Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview. Hopefully there is no SI Jinx. For some stupid reason they predict the Mets will beat the Angels in the World Series.

Jeter's Defense Is No Longer Just The Yankees' Problem

Now it's the entire country's problem. Here's more from Ken Rosenthal:

Before Tuesday night, Jeter had played only 15 innings at shortstop over the previous 10 days, a far lower total than he would have compiled if he had remained with the Yankees at spring training.

So, Johnson played Jeter for nine innings at short in the elimination game against Puerto Rico and used Rollins as his designated hitter.

Twice, Jeter failed to stop balls to his left that Rollins might have at least knocked down, and both led directly to runs.

If Team USA had not secured its dramatic 6-5 victory over Puerto Rico by staging a three-run rally in the ninth inning, Jeter's defense would have come under heavy scrutiny.

Jeter, who turns 35 on June 26, is 4 1/2 years older than Rollins. His defensive decline is not exactly a secret within the industry; the sabermetric community, in particular, has pointed out his inadequacies.

I hope and pray that what we saw on Tuesday night was effected by some offseason rust, because he really looked awful. It was like he was running in quick sand. He looked so bad that a friend of mine who has been defending Jeter's defense for quite some time sent me this text message: "Jeter is such a joke in the field.. I'm convinced."

Jeter did have his reasons - or excuses - for why he was unable to make the plays. First the Rios single in the sixth:

"That was a slider," Jeter said, referring to the pitch by right- hander Heath Bell to Rios, a right-handed hitter. "He usually pulls sliders. I've played against him enough. He usually gets out in front of sliders in that situation."

And left-handed Ramon Vazquez's single in the 9th:

"I was just trying to knock it down," Jeter said. "The bottom line in that situation is that Broxton throws so hard, you can't shade him up the middle. He can hit the ball the other way, so you've gotta play straight up."

Fair enough, but it's very likely that any other shortstop in the league at least knocks those balls down stopping those runs from scoring. Jimmy Rollins, who is one of the better defensive shortstops in the game, definitely does.

Rob Neyer has this to say about what Jeter's defense will really cost Team USA:

What does that mean, practically? The difference between them might fall somewhere in the range of 20-30 runs, or (roughly) less than 0.2 runs per game. That's why -- when someone asked me on the radio last week -- I said that playing Jeter instead of Rollins was highly unlikely to really hurt Team USA. If the Americans reach the final, they'll play eight games; theoretically, even if Jeter played every inning of every game, he would "cost" his team a couple of runs … and a couple of runs wouldn't be likely to change anything. And he's not playing every inning of every game.

So far, so good. Jeter's cost his team (at least) a couple of runs, but Team USA hasn't lost a game because of them. Not quite. Nor is Team USA likely to lose the championship because of Jeter. Still, you can't help but wonder -- as you might have wondered three years ago -- if decisions like this one send a fundamental message to everyone involved: Team USA isn't really trying to win.

If you were Davey Johnson who would you start at shortstop on Saturday, Jeter or Rollins?

I know who I'd start, and it isn't Jeter.

Random Link Dump

- Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger wrote this article about Yankees catching prospect Jesus Montero, and how, despite his size, is trying to be the best catcher he can be. There has been much talk that he's too big (6-4, 225 lbs) to be a successful catcher in the big leagues. But that hasn't stoped him from trying to prove his critics wrong.

"Without question, he is significantly improved this year as opposed to last year," Cashman said. "To the point that we don't really doubt he's going to be a catcher in the big leagues."

- Kat O'Brien has this story about four Yankees pitchers and their love for tattoos. The four pitchers are A.J. Burnett, Brian Bruney, Joba Chamberlain, and CC Sabathia. "We've got more tattoos than the California Penal League," said Bruney.

- Many fans, including myself, have been upset about the 300 obstructed seats in the bleachers at the New Yankee Stadium. But Anthony Rieber points out that this isn't anything new, and most of the new and future ballparks in baseball have obstructed seats.

Of the 11 major-league ballparks - including the new Yankee Stadium and the Mets' new Citi Field - that have opened since 2000, eight have obstructed-view seats.

- Not Yankee-related but still very interesting is this article from Fielding Bible guru John Dewan (hat-tip to MLB Trade Rumors). He did a study to determine exactly how important defense is and he concludes that defense is worth roughly half as much as offense.

- Scott Ham over at The Bronx View, takes a look at Dewan's article and posted his own article that lightly looks at combining a players runs above average on offense and defense. Check it out.

- Over in the WBC, Team USA manager Davey Johnson will miss Saturday's second round matchup with Puerto Rico. Johnson will be attending his stepson's wedding, and Barry Larkin will take over the managerial duties.

- Sorry I had to throw one A-Rod article into the mix, and sorry once again, because is was written by Mike Lupica. He wonders if the Yankees have already seen the best that they will get from A-Rod.

- Just a reminder: Tonight's Yankees-Red Sox game will be aired on NESN, and a simulcast will be shown on the MLB Network. The game is set to start at 7:15 p.m., with Chien-Ming Wang going for the Yanks, and Tim Wakefield starting for the Sox.

Heyman: Yanks Love The Idea of Manny

From Jon Heyman:

The Yankees are in on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes but don't appear overly optimistic to outbid the determined Angels or Red Sox. Should the Yankees lose out for Teixeira, who's drawing interest from the perennially also-ran Nationals and Orioles in addition to the three aforementioned clubs, they seem ready to pounce for Manny Ramirez.

There are those suggesting the Yankees are only in the running for Teixeira to either monitor the rival Red Sox or drive up the price for the switch-hitting slugger. But while it's true the Yankees don't appear as eager to sign Teixeira as the Angels and Red Sox, they do appear willing to sign him at the right price. After already signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for $243.5 million combined, the Yankees appear disinclined to offer $200 million for Teixeira, which is what it may take to get him.

That's where Manny may come in.

While the Yankees have a trio of accomplished corner outfielders -- Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady -- they appear to love the idea of Manny and could still utilize Damon in centerfield on occasion.

I still happen to love the idea of Mark Teixeira playing first base for the next eight years, even at the likely $200 million price tag. He does something Manny cannot do and that's play gold glove caliber defense, but we'll get into that in a moment. Offensively bringing Manny in makes the Yankees lineup very very scary. Manny is one of the best hitters in the game, and a 1-2 punch of A-Rod and Manny in the heart of the Yankees order would be murder on opposing pitchers.

But now onto defensive, which is one of my major concerns with this team heading into 2009. The Yankees already have one of the worst defensive teams in the league; last year they ranked at the bottom in team UZR (ultimate zone rating: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.), with a -39.4 rating. Only the Cincinnati Reds (-41.7) and Colorado Rockies (-70.9) were worse. The top two teams in the league, the Rays (73.0) amd Phillies (44.4), just happened to find themselves in the World Series last year. And if you were wondering, the Red Sox were ranked third with a 41.3 UZR, and should improve if they add Teixeira.

The Yankees were also at the bottom in RngR (range runs: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.), only ahead of Colorado. Once again the top three teams in the league were the Rays, Phillies, and Red Sox.

But don't get me wrong, the Yankees' problem is not that they cannot catch the ball, because they can. They ranked at the top in fielding percentage (.986), committing only 83 errors last year, good for second best in the league. And they were also near the top in ErrR (error runs: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.). When they're around the ball they make the play, the problem is actually getting to the ball, their range. They're old and slow, and adding a 37 year old Manny Ramirez will only make matters worse.

We better get used to watching Yankees outfielders chase down ball in the gaps. An outfield of Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady is not something I look forward to watching. Add that outfield to an already sub-par infield, which won't be helped by the addition of Nick Swisher, and the Yankees will be a disaster on the defensive side of the ball. This is the main reason why the Yankees should bring in Teixeira, stick with Brett Gardner or even Melky Cabrera in center, and leave Damon in left. Gardner and Melky are superior centerfielders and Damon is much better when he plays left. Look at Damon's 2008 UZR; in CF he had a -5.6, and in LF it was 8.4. He goes from below average in center to above average is left.

This defensive team:

C - Posada
1B - Teixeira
2B - Cano
3B - A-Rod
SS - Jeter
RF - Nady
CF - Gardner/Melky
LF - Damon
DH - Matsui

is light years better than this one:

C - Posada
1B - Swisher
2B - Cano
3B - A-Rod
SS - Jeter
RF - Nady
CF - Damon
DH/LF - Manny
DH/LF - Matsui

It's not just the offense, and the pitching....

... this team is bad defensively too. It's not that they can't field the ball, they're 4th in all of baseball in fielding percentage (.986), it's just that they have a hard time getting to the ball. Basically they're a team of Derek Jeters; no range, but once they get to a ball they're great.

Yesterday over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog SG posted AL Zone Ratings through September 8th (hat tip to Ed Valentine), and the numbers aren't pretty. The only Yankee near the top at any position is Melky Cabrera, and he doesn't even start anymore because he couldn't hit.

Here are the Yankees players' rankings at their respective positions:

Jason Giambi: .824 - 11th
Robinson Cano: .802 - 15th (only AL player worse is Jose Lopez)
Derek Jeter: .822 - 11th
Alex Rodriguez: .788 - 11th
Johnny Damon: .848 - 8th
Melky Cabrera: .920 - 3rd
Bobby Abreu: .786 - 17th (Worst in the AL)

That's pretty awful, isn't it?

Looking ahead to 2009 the Yankees should be able to improve defensively in several areas. Giambi will be gone, and there's a good chance Abreu won't come back as well. So that's two positions the Yankees can easily improve upon. Xavier Nady (.874 ZR) is better defensively than Abreu, and hopefully the Yankees can acquire a good defensive first baseman (Mark Teixeira?). You would also hope Cano can regain his 2007 form where he was 3rd in the AL in ZR for second baseman.

Don't misunderstand me; I'm not trying to say that if this team played better defensively they'd be in the playoffs, because they wouldn't. But team defense is very important, and the Yankees must improve in this area next season.