If you wonder which side you belong to, ask yourself: Is baseball art or science? Is it beautiful or just data for the spreadsheet? You’d be right if you said "both," but most ballplayers, including Teixeira, reject the notion that UZR and other metrics are better evaluators than those who are on the field.In general, players that have low UZR’s tend to criticize defensive metrics and players that post high UZR’s tend to think that defensive metrics help to show their true value – everyone looks at the stats that show them in the best light. It's self interest – we probably all do the same thing at work.
"Look, if computers could run the game, why bother having general managers?" Teixeira said. Sort of like the post-Judgment Day world in "Terminator," where humans have been deposed in a machine-controlled society.
That’s obviously an overstated metaphor. But it feels that way to Teixeira, who says UZR is incapable of quantifying his most significant defensive asset: scooping balls in the dirt. He calls it a "gift" that can be honed with practice and hard work. But just like throwing hard and running fast, you either have that gene or you don’t. Teixeira says, "Picking (a short hop) is the most important thing I can do for my infielders or my pitcher or my catcher.
While I disagree with Tex’s belief that defensive metrics don’t accurately measure a players defensive ability, I do agree with his sentiment about UZR’s inability to account for his ability to pick the ball at 1B. As I stated in a post about the Yankees defense last week, UZR tends to undervalue 1B’s and overvalue C’s. One of the biggest problems, as Tex points out above, is that UZR does not give a 1B any more credit for scooping balls, and Tex is as good as it gets. So obviously UZR doesn't tell the whole story for first baseman. It is also important to look at three years or more of UZR to get a true read on a players defense – looking at one year is too small of a sample size.
Tex is a good 1B - one of the better ones in the game. To help get a more complete understanding of Teixeira's defensive prowess, let's look at another defensive metric - Dewan Plus-Minus (+/-). Joe Posnanski does a better job than I would at defining it in layman's terms:
"My go-to defensive statistic, this was invented by John Dewan, and as I understand it, the numbers determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus."In 2009 his +/- numbers put him at 0, and for the three years prior, 2006 – 2008, Mark Teixeira was 6th in all of baseball with a +22; Albert Pujols was first at +82 (wow!).
I didn’t find it that interesting that Tex was questioning defensive metrics, what I found most interesting (and annoying) about this article was a throw in quote at the end of the piece:
But here’s the kicker: Sabermetrics don’t acknowledge a phenomenon known as "clutch."Can a single hit or play be considered "clutch?" I guess so - you can call any bit play "clutch." Is there such a thing as a clutch hitter or clutch hitting? Probably not.
Derek Jeter’s "intangibles" similarly are dismissed. "Oh, come on," Teixeira said. "You can’t say Derek isn’t different than a lot of hitters when the game is on the line. Or that Johnny wasn’t able to put up great at-bats against the toughest closers. Matsui was the same way. He was a monster when it counted.
"Certain players can say to themselves, ’It’s time to step it up,’ " Teixeira said, although he knows UZR doesn’t quite get that. Maybe someday.
I know that everyone thinks Derek Jeter is a “clutch” player or that Arod was “un-clutch” prior to last post season. However, there is no statistical evidence to bear this out. It may be blasphemy as a Yankee fan to say that Derek Jeter isn’t clutch, but I’ll say it – players don't have the ability to perform above their true talent level in high pressure situations. If players did have this "clutch" ability, then there should be some repeatable statistical evidence to prove it - that is, the player should show that he performs above his talent level in "clutch" situations year after year.
I will write a more detailed post about this, but let's take a look at a rudimentary example. Here are the slash lines of two players (AVG/OBP/SLG) - which one is the "clutch" hitter?
- Player A - .317/.388/.459
- Player B - .313/.383/.479
Tex has a point regarding UZR, but he is way off base when it comes to the clutch abilities of his teammates.
