Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus does a annual team health report for every team. Today,
he came out with his report for our Yankees. He breaks down the health of the players on the team, the trends, the costs of last year's injuries, and the risks for the season ahead. He also shows the risks that come with each player, which you can see for yourself below. The entire article is worth a read, but for now, here's the ratings:
C Jorge Posada: See The Comeback.
DH Nick Johnson: Johnson's a known quantity at this stage. He breaks down, but for the Yankees, that's not a significant problem. On one side, if he's not available, Posada gets some extra rest. On the other hand, Jesus Montero, among others, could play DH over an extended period of time. That makes the Yankees the perfect team for taking the risk here.
SP A.J. Burnett: Burnett has been healthy three years out of the last eight. Will it be four of nine? It's hard to find someone as painfully inconsistent besides Chris Carpenter, but Burnett is actually healthier, if not quite as good.
SP Andy Pettitte: Pettitte is not bulletproof, but like many old pitchers, there's a survivor effect. When Pettitte next breaks, that will likely be the end, but so what?
SP/RP Joba Chamberlain: See The Big Risk.
CL Mariano Rivera: Rivera is a constant red, but if you've read these before, you know that it's mostly the annual period where he comes up sore, takes some time off, and comes back with that hammer of God cutter intact. Yes, it's likely, even probable, that he'll hit on the DL, which is what defines red. I'll take Rivera every time, risk or not.
RP/SP Phil Hughes: Hughes is in much the same boat as Chamberlain, but the difference is that Hughes has broken down under a starter's workload even when not terribly taxed. As a reliever, he really seemed to find himself. For all the talk about Chamberlain being pushed to the pen, I have no idea why anyone would take Hughes out. As a starter, he's very red. As a pure reliever, he'd be a very low yellow.
3B Alex Rodriguez: Rodriguez's hip is the major issue.
SS Derek Jeter: Jeter has been healthy over the course of his career, which is one of the reasons he is still good. As much as he's done, it seems like there's not much mileage on him. It just looks too easy for him, doesn't it? He is aging and is at a risky position, but he's still close to a green even now.
RF Nick Swisher: Swisher's odd career patterns really confuse PIPP. He's probably not that risky, but then again, if uncertainty is risk, I'll say that Swisher is very uncertain.
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano
LF Brett Gardner
CF Curtis Granderson
SP CC Sabathia: Sabathia's workload is an issue, but he's proven time and time again that he can handle what would kill some pitchers. He has an appetite for innings.
SP Javier Vazquez
That's a lot of important pieces in the red. Here's a look at last year's high risk Yankees and how their season's turned out.
Green - Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher, CC Sabathia.
Yellow - Derek Jeter, Xavier Nady, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, Damaso Marte.
Red - Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, A.J Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera.
The only Yankees on this list that wound up on the DL were A-Rod, Nady, Wang, Marte, and Posada. And as we can also see, there were just as many important parts in the red last year and all were able to avoid the DL. Let's hope that this year's team can stay just as healthy.
