Granderson Trade Analysis

The one thing this trade shows is that fans (or at least me) really are incapable of judging what it will take to trade for a player. Yesterday I was dismissing the idea that Cashman could get Granderson without giving up one of Joba, Hughes, or Montero. However, he got it done with a package centered around Austin Jackson. Personally, I think this is another great Cashman trade here.

In Granderson they get a 28 year old centerfielder who will hold down the position for a very long time at a cheap price. Granted, he's coming off the third straight year of decline but their is reason to think he will bounce back and he's still an extremely valuable player if this is all that he is. He plays solid defense and is two years removed from an MVP type year. His career wOBA is .358 and he plays a very solid centerfield. He's a consistent 20-20 guy who still was worth 3.4 wins last year in an awful year.

The biggest problem with his dissapointing 2009 was that a lot of his FB base hits from the previous years turned into fly ball outs. His FB% shot up about nine points while his GB% sunk about ten points. His BABIP accordingly shrunk but his HR/FB% remained the same. It seems a little flukey but even if it becomes a trend, that short right field porch might give him a few more homers. The guys at fangraphs.com ranked Granderson as the 22nd most valuable player in baseball and they really didn't give up all that much.

Obviously, its tough to see A-Jax go. We've invested a lot of time into watching him grow and develop but you have to give up something and he clearly doesn't have the type of potential that Montero, Hughes, or Joba show. His 2009 season saw him take a few steps backwards and it was probably a good idea to trade him while his flashy BA was still nice and high. Realistically, if A-Jax ends up as good as Curtis Granderson the Tigers will be delighted and probably a little surprised. Ian Kennedy's stock has fallen since the days of "The Big Three" and at his point I don't think their was going to be much room for him on the Yankees. After all, you have the front two spots locked up to huge contracts and a load of other guys trying to make the other spots. Phil Coke is a throwaway to be honest with you. We saw from Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez how quickly a previously reliable reliever can suddenly turn to nothing.

All in all, its not all that impressive of a package for a guy like Granderson. I'm not completely sure what comes next for the Yankees. Obviously, they still are going to go hard after Pettitte and keep tabs on Lackey with the slightly diminished pitching depth. However, Jackson would have been a major piece in any sort of deal for Halladay and I really don't see the Yanks making two blockbuster trades in one offseason coming of the heels of #27. So, I think this makes any possible trade for Halladay even less likely. It puts less pressure on them with the whole left field/DH situation as well. They're still going to sign a guy but they no longer need two, though its still a possibility. It makes Gardner and Melky much more expendable as well.

I'm very happy with the trade myself. Its good to see the Yanks fire the first shot in the AL East winter wars.

Ian Kennedy Called Up

According to Bryan Hoch, Ian Kennedy has been called up and will be used as a long reliever. I did not see that coming.

Yanks Call Up Freddy Guzman

Chad Jennings is reporting that the Yankees have called up outfielder Freddy Guzman. Anthony Claggett was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster. Jennings said this move caught every player in the SWB clubhous offguard. I assume he's being called up mainly to be a pinch-runner down the stretch, and then maybe get some starts after they clinch.

Here's some more on Guzman from Jennings:

As for Guzman, he has Brett Gardner-type speed. and he's quite obviously going to the big leagues to provide speed off the bench. Guzman came to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre less than two weeks ago, playing his first game on September 1. While I wasn't remotely expecting the Guzman move, you may remember that the Boston Red Sox made a similar move, adding speedy Joey Gathright to the Triple-A Pawtucket roster on August 30 only to call him up to Boston on September 1. Speed can be huge, and Guzman isn't likely to fill a 40-man spot beyond these final few weeks of the season.

The Yankees also sent Ian Kennedy back to Scranton, and he will be activated in time to start game two of the Governor's Cup final against Durham.

Kennedy Activated, Optioned to Tampa

Chad Jennings (hat-tip to River Ave. Blues) is reporting that Ian Kennedy has been activated from the DL and had been optioned to Tampa. Jennings assume that this is so he can pitching in the Florida State League championship series. He also said that,

According to the Tampa Yankees milb.com site, Hector Noesi is supposed to start tonight's game, but Kennedy is on the active roster and I can't think of any reason to make that move unless it's to use him.

This is very surprising news considering the Yankees said he wasn't going to pitch until the fall. Great to see Kennedy make such a speedy return from the aneurysm.

Kennedy Throws Simulated Game

From the AP:

Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy felt good after his first game-type action since surgery in May to remove an aneurysm below his right biceps.

Kennedy threw 22 of 35 pitches for strikes over two innings in a simulated game against Yankees Minor Leaguers on Tuesday. The right-hander said it remains doubtful he will make an appearance in a Minor League playoff this season, but he is set to pitch in the instructional league later this month and the Arizona Fall League.

Things seem to be going well for the 24-year old right-hander as he recovers from surgery. He's scheduled to throw 50 pitches in another simulated game on Saturday.

Kennedy Throws Live BP

CBS Sports is reporting that Ian Kennedy threw batting practice today for the first time since he had an aneurysm removed from his right biceps.

He threw 30 pitches on Wednesday, and is set to throw another BP session on Saturday. He could then throw a two-inning simulated game on Tuesday.

"It was fun to finally get some competitive juices flowing and to see some hitters," Kennedy said. "I'm surprised I wasn't tired at the end."

Ian Kennedy Update

Ian Kennedy went to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre yesterday to throw a bullpen session and while there he sat down with Chad Jennings to discuss his injury and future. He said that "Kennedy has been throwing 35-pitch bullpen sessions", and has been throwing all four of his pitches.

He also said that Kennedy has been working "side-to-side, hitting the corners" for the past two weeks, and is set to throw another bullpen on Monday. Then on Wednesday and Saturday he will face live batters in BP sessions.

“It feels good," Kennedy said. "It doesn’t feel like anything ever happened. It’s a long process, but I understand we have to be on the cautious side because if something did happen, I’d be pretty upset at myself for pushing it.”

“Right now, all I know is what I have next week," he said. "When I look at it, I could technically be ready to throw a couple of innings either the following week or the week after that, so that falls into the (minor league) playoffs, but I have no idea what’s after next week. Right now in my head, I’m just getting ready for instructs at the end of September.”

He'll pitch during the instructional season beginning at the end of September -- is it a season, it's more like spring training -- then he'll go to the Arizona Fall League to pitch through October and most of November. ...

"(The Fall League) starts right after instructs," Kennedy said. "There’s no down time, and the down time between that and spring training is a little bit longer, a little bit longer rest.”

Hat-tip to River Ave. Blues.

Uh oh! Johan Has Elbow Soreness - Updated

Update: he news may be even worse for the Mets. First there's this from SI.com:

Santana's setback is particularly alarming for the fourth-place Mets, who are counting on the two-time Cy Young Award winner to lead their rotation for years to come.

"He has not been throwing between starts for quite awhile," New York manager Jerry Manuel said Monday after his team's 6-2 loss to Philadelphia. "I would say since before the All-Star break. He has been pitching with this problem, but not with the level of discomfort he has now. ... Now, it concerns him."

So, the guy who replaced Willie Randolph sent Johan Santana, the Mets ace for the next six years, to the mound knowing he was injured in a season that has been long over for the Mets. Good job Jerry.

It also appears that the lefty may be headed for surgery:

Mets players said Monday they expect Johan Santana will require surgery on his left elbow to repair whatever malady has prompted the club to scratch the pitcher from his scheduled start against the Marlins in Miami on Tuesday. Instead of making his 26th start, Santana is to have his elbow examined by Mets medical director Dr. David Altchek. And, if his teammates' sense of the situation is right, his next start likely will be next season.

The Mets offered minimal information, i.e., no specific diagnosis or theories, about the problem that manager Jerry Manuel said began to develop before the All-Star break. But Mike Pelfrey, Santana's fellow starter, said, "I don't think anyone expects good news." And Jeff Francouer said he anticipates Santana will require surgery after speaking with the pitcher in the clubhouse Monday.

Other players said Santana seems resigned to surgery.

At one point, Francoeur -- he, too, is injured now -- said Santana "can get it looked at now and be two months ahead by Spring Training," an indication of a possible need for surgery in the immediate future rather than after the season. Later he acknowledged his conversation with the pitcher and the likelihood of surgery.

Oh, and then there's this:

And indication of the pain Santana has endured is that he opted not to make the start. Some 11 months ago, he pitched a three-hit shutout in a must game for the Mets on a left knee that required surgery immediately after the season. Teammates said Monday that the knee has been an issue at times this season, but that the elbow was a far more significant problem.

So their ace has knee and elbow problems, wow, what a mess. (hat-tip to NoMaas.org for the links)

I took a lot of flak from fans, readers, and friends, for being against the Johan Santana trade back in the winter of 2007. In the time since then the non-move hasn't looked so bad. Sure, they missed the postseason last year - might have made it with Johan - but they were able to sign CC Sabathia, keep Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Melky Cabrera, two of which have been huge contributors to the Yankees success this year. Oh, and if you think they could have gotten both Johan and CC, well, that wasn't going to happen.

Also, Johan's fastball is dropping, especially this season as this chart from Fangraphs.com shows:

And his numbers in the NL East this season are 13-9, with a 3.13 ERA, which are good numbers but what would they be in the far superior AL East?

Also, his K/9 has dropped from 9.66 in 2007, to 7.91 last year, and this year its down to 7.88. His BB/9 have gone up from 1.81 in '06 to 2.14 in '07. Surprsingly that's also gone up in the NL with a 2.42 BB/9 last year, and a 2.48 this year. Want more bad numbers? Well, here you go. Opponents hit .229 against him in '07, in '08 that went up to .238, and this year it's at .249. And his WHIP has gone up in each of the past five seasons in a row.

Besides all that we get this tweet from Bart Hubbuch about Johan's sore elbow (hat-tip to Mike Silva):

Unbelievable: Johan Santana's start Tuesday has been scratched due to elbow soreness. He is getting examined.

Anyone else still upset that Brian Cashman didn't make the trade? I know I'm not and never was.

Kennedy Headed to the Instructional League

From the AP via ESPN:

New York Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy likely will pitch next month in the instructional league, his first game action since having surgery May 12 to remove an aneurysm from beneath his right biceps.

Kennedy said Wednesday it's doubtful he will return for a minor league game this season. The right-hander is throwing fastballs and changeups during bullpen sessions and could be ready for a simulated game early next month.

....He is set to pitch in the Arizona Fall League later this year.

Good news for Ian. Hopefully he can come back strong and maybe make some sort of impact next season.

Kennedy Throws Off Mound

The AP via ESPN reports that Ian Kennedy threw a 25-pitch bullpen session off a mound today.

It was the first time he's thrown off a mound since undergoing surgery to remove an aneurysm from his right arm. According to the article, Kennedy said everything felt fine and that he would throw another bullpen on Friday.

Last week it was reported that Kennedy hopes to be able to throw in a game this year, and will play in the Puerto Rico winter league.

Kennedy Throws 25 Pitches Off Mini-Mound

From the AP via the NY Post:

Right-hander Ian Kennedy, still recovering from an aneurysm this year, threw 25 pitches off a mini-mound Tuesday and hopes to play in minor league games before the season ends.

... He will have another session Friday on a mound half the usual 10-inch height.

"Another hurdle cleared," Kennedy said. "I felt really good. I'm happy with that. I'm happy with the progress. I'm still on schedule and haven't had any problems yet."

"I saw the doctor last week, and he's real happy with all my tests and the results," Kennedy said. "It's been going really well."

The reports also mentions that Kennedy plans to play in the Puerto Rico winter league.

Kennedy Begins Throwing

Forgot to mention this is last night's Minor League Report, but according to Chad Jennings, Ian Kennedy began his throwing program yesterday - exactly six weeks after having surgery to remove an aneurysm. He made 25 throws from 40 feet and will throw every other day from now on. He will increase the distance to 60 feet next week.Kennedy told Jennings that his felt terrific.

Here's more from Jennings:

The current program doesn't extend beyond the 60-feet mark, so Kennedy has no idea when he might get in a game. More extensive throwing will be scheduled as the program progresses.

Something I also forgot to mention last night was Triple-A All-Star game voting. If you haven't voted for the Triple-A make sure you vote this week because voting ends on Friday. You can vote by going here. In Triple-A fan's votes count for 33 percent of the final results.

Ian Kennedy Update

UPDATE 5:41 p.m.: According to Peter Abraham, Kennedy was examined by a specialist in NYC today, and he has a vasospasm. It can be treated with medication, and Kennedy will be evaluated again Monday.

He also said that according to his own Google search that it doesn't appear that A vasopasm is serious.

Kennedy had two outs in the fifth inning when he was removed because of numbness in one of his fingers. He was sent for tests in Rochester after the game and spent Tuesday in New York with a Yankees team doctor.

Results of the tests will be released some time today. I will post any info I heard about this here so check back later.

Hughes, Kennedy Look to Learn From Last Year's Mistakes

From Pete Caldera:

After an injury-plagued and ineffective 2008, both right-handers have to re-establish their place in the pecking order. And that’s fine with them.

"[Anyone] could make excuses all they want. I thought I was ready," Kennedy said. "Obviously, other people thought I was ready … but it was a learning process.

"Phil and I, we talked about it. We both feel the same way," Kennedy said. "We know we had to get better."

Asked if too much, too soon was expected of him, Hughes said he didn’t think so.

"I was given a great opportunity, and I didn’t come through," said Hughes, after he pitched two scoreless, hitless innings against the Rays on Thursday, in his Grapefruit League debut start.

"I didn’t think I was ill-prepared, or too young, or whatever it was," Hughes said of 2008. "I struggled out of the gate, and got hurt."

"I kind of matured myself, baseball-wise," Kennedy said, after a lat injury helped derail his season. Pitching in Puerto Rico this winter, Kennedy said he learned how to make quicker in-game adjustments.

"I mean, I never really struggled like that before," Kennedy said of 2008. "It was frustrating, failing that much. I think I could compete at the big-league level, but I wasn’t performing to my ability."

When he wasn’t recalled to the Yankees in September, he made a personal vow.

"I said, I don’t want to be left home again, watching games on TV," Kennedy said. "I’m going to work my butt off, no matter what."

The both seem to have the right attitude, which is good, but that will only take them so far.

As I've said before I'm still confident that Hughes will turn out to be a very good pitcher. He has major league stuff, and once he fine tunes his changeup and/or slider I think he'll be able to succeed consistently at the major league level.

However, I'm not really sure what to think about Ian Kennedy. Like Hughes, he's been great at every level (except the majors), but unlike Hughes, he doesn't have the same high-quality stuff. And without top of the line pitches he pretty much has to put the ball exactly where he wants it to get major league hitters out.

Another issue that both pitchers dealt with last year was how easily they would get rattled on the mound. Instead of giving up one run and getting out of the jam they'd getting rattled and end up allowing a big inning. The good thing is at least Kennedy is aware of it and as the article says, he has "learned how to make quicker in-game adjustments." Hopefully Hughes will do the same.

They will have their chance again. There is no reason to believe they won't be successful in AAA once again, and at some point this season you know a pitcher will go down with an injury and miss a couple starts. Hopefully the next time they are more prepared than they were last year.

First Four Spring Starters Named

According to Matt Craig of NJ.com, Joe Girardi has named the starting pitchers for the first four spring training games.

Wednesday: Brett Tomko vs. Toronto (at Dunedin)
Thursday: Phil Hughes vs. Tampa Bay
Friday: Ian Kennedy vs. Minnesota (at Fort Myers)
Saturday: Joba Chamberlain vs. Minnesota

The Fans Want Hughes

About a month ago I asked you guys to let me know who you wanted as the Yankees fifth starter. After a little over 700 votes the fans have spoken: they want Phil Hughes.

It was a very close vote, but Hughes narrowly edged Andy Pettitte. Here are the final results:

	Votes	%
Phil Hughes	309	43%
Andy Pettitte	290	41%
Alfredo Aceves	69	10%
Other	40	6%
Ian Kennedy	5	1%

Not surprising how little support there was for Ian Kennedy. He's fallen out of favor with not only the fans, but the team as well.

As most of you know I still think they should sign Pettitte, but it's looking more and more likely that they will go with Hughes and 43% of you will get your wish.

Who Should Be The Fifth Starter?

Pete Caldera from The Record has a new post up on his blog discussing whether the Yankees should have Phil Hughes or Andy Pettitte as their fifth starter in the upcoming season so I figured I'd do something similar. Hey, why not?

In recent days many articles have come out that make it seem that the Yankees are content with not bringing back Pettitte and going with Hughes or another one of their younger players.

I still believe Hughes will be a good starter eventually, and for the Yankees future it may be smart to get him in that role now as opposed to having him rot in the minors for another year. But I also feel that for 2009 the Yankees it may be better with a guy like Pettitte anchoring the rotation. Especially when you consider that Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will both have strict innings limits.

And with those innings limits, as well as the potential for an injury or two to hit the staff, Hughes will likely get a chance to make some starts in '09 anyway. So based on all that I still think the Yanks should bring back Pettitte. He gives the Yankees another veteran, and more importantly, someone who can give them 200 innings.

But what do you think, should the Yankees go with Pettitte, Hughes, or another young starter? Vote in the poll on the left or leave a comment below. Thanks.

Has the Yankees' patience already paid off?

Buster Olney takes a look at this question over on his blog:

The winter obsession last year was Johan Santana -- and the Yankees or the Red Sox could have had him. They could have traded for the accomplished left-hander who was about to turn 29. But what folks in both front offices decided was that the double-barreled cost was prohibitive.

On the front end, both teams would have been required to surrender their top pitching prospects -- for the Red Sox, that was Jon Lester, and for the Yankees, that was Phil Hughes -- and then they would have to pay Santana like he was a free agent. It was such an extraordinary price that even the some folks in the Mets' organization wondered, after getting Santana, whether it was the right thing to do.

No, the argument that several executives made with the Red Sox and Yankees was that if you were patient -- patient -- then you might have a shot at a pitcher much like Santana, in CC Sabathia, and the cost would only have one layer. Sure, you'd have to give him a huge contract, but you wouldn't have to give up top prospects along the way.

So the Yankees, in the end, were patient and got Sabathia, and the pundits who are saying that the team has blown up its plan for player development are simply not paying attention. In fact, the signings of Sabathia and A.J. Burnett are absolutely in keeping with the refocus on the farm system.

Because the Yankees waited to pursue Sabathia, rather than deal for Santana, they still have Hughes and Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson and all the players mentioned in the Santana talks, and as the pitching talent pool has increased at the major league level, there is now more time for those youngsters to develop. It's actually been more than a decade since the Yankees have had as much minor league talent stacked up as they do now.

In the fall of 2005, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman mapped out a course for the organization to begin building a powerhouse that combines player development and the power of the dollar, a model that looks an awful lot like what we've been seeing from the Red Sox over the last three seasons. The Yankees continue to move closer to achieving that goal.

I couldn't agree more with Olney here. In fact, I'm surprised that so many people cannot see the position the Yankees have put themselves in, or at least see that they're heading in the right direction. Maybe these folks are just happier blinding themselves to reality, or maybe they just enjoy blaming Cashman for everything.

Yes, the Yankees missed the playoffs last year, and that might just be too much for some Yankees fans to handle, but it may have had to happen to put the Yankees in a better position for the future.

A Scout's Look at Some of the Yanks' Top Prospects

A lot of good stuff here from SNY.tv's Michael Salfino. He spoke with Baseball America's John Manuel, who is a National League scout who also covers the American League, to discuss some of the Yankees top prospects. (hat tip to Steve Lombardi from WasWatching.com)

Keep in mind that you're getting two different points of view; one from John Manuel, and another from SNY's scout, whoever that is.

Here's what he said about Phil Hughes:

"Fastball velocity and command will be the key for Hughes," says Manuel, busy putting the finishing touches on Baseball America's fine Prospect Handbook (slated to be released Dec. 19 and available at BaseballAmerica.com)."If he's 89-92, as he was most of the AFL, he's got to have better command. If he's 90-93, it can be just control, not necessarily command. It sounds to me like the scouting consensus is more mid-rotation than ace these days. The obvious first step is to just stay healthy; he's done that exactly once in his career, 2006."

But it's that disappointing injury history that gives our scout hope that Hughes can beat current market projections of a No. 3 starter.

"Hughes is sliding unfairly because he hasn't been healthy. When you're always rehabbing from injury, your velocity will suffer. What we have here is the expectation game. Calling him a No. 1-level ace was never fair. But to me he still looks like he can be a No. 2 guy to me on a championship-caliber team.

"If he is going to be stuck at 91, then he's a No. 3 guy," the scout continues. "But I think he'll get back to being a tick higher, 92-to-94 mph. That's the key to what he becomes. Again, a lot of this is expectations. We get silly published reports that guys like Hughes throw 95 or 97 when maybe they've done it a few times on someone's gun. People expect that and then keep asking, 'Where's the 97-mph fastball?'

Austin Jackson:

Our scout says Jackson is the Yanks' No. 1 prospect, a view shared by Manuel.

"The whole with Jackson is greater than the sum of the parts," says Manuel, Baseball America's editor. " And the parts are fine. His poor AFL performance shows he's not ready for 2009. But he will be a very solid everyday player down the line. I give him a good chance to be an above-average big league center fielder. Better than Bernie Williams on defense, not quite that good offensively at his peak."

The scout's comp is outfielder Reggie Sanders, who played with the Reds and then bounced around.

"Nice athlete. Nice bat speed. Similar to Mets outfielder Fernando Martinez in that he hasn't had that big Minor League year. Like Sanders, contact rate/plate recognition is his problem. He gets himself out. Prospect-wise, he's solid, not spectacular -- not untouchable by any means. I'd trade him as a main piece for a No. 2 pitcher without thinking twice."

Andrew Brackman:

"He had the best arm in Hawaii Winter Baseball," says Manuel, who rated him that league's No. 2 prospect. "He's inconsistent, showing lots of rust coming back from Tommy John surgery. But he hit 97 mph and consistently sat at 91-96. He has an inconsistent curveball, but a surprising, firm mid-80s changeup."

Our scout didn't seem as impressed.

"He needs one of his too curveballs -- a knuckle-curve that's harder and a loopy one that probably should be scrapped. He can't change speeds well because he's so tall and thus has trouble repeating his motion. And he's already 23. He's high risk, high reward and can't afford another injury."

Ian Kennedy:

On Ian Kennedy, or scout says, "His stuff is marginal but he's tough when everything is clicking. He'll have some good stretches in the majors as a starter, I'm convinced. The Yankees seemingly have turned the page because they put Hughes in the AFL, which is developmental, while Kennedy was awarded to the tougher Puerto Rico league because I think they're trying to establish some trade value -- hoping he'll pitch well against better competition [than there is in the AFL]."

Says Manuel about Kennedy: "He has to have premium command to be a four-pitch, four average pitches guy. His best pitch, the slider, was a 55 (on the 80 scouting scale). He is supposed to be a pitchability/command guy. But does he have the guts to throw his pitch?"

They also discuss infielder Kevin Russo, first baseman Juan Miranda, starting pitcher Jeremy Bleich, who Manuel called the best left-hander in the Hawaiian Winter league, catcher Austin Romine, and relief pitcher Jonathan Albaladejo. Check out the rest of the article here.

Yanks Not Likely To Land Cameron (YES!)

From Newsday:

The Yankees have held talks with the Brewers about acquiring centerfielder Mike Cameron, but as the general managers' meetings wrapped up yesterday in Dana Point, Calif., they were not optimistic about landing him.

The Yankees have interest in upgrading in centerfield, though a source called getting Cameron "unlikely." Improving in centerfield ranks far below starting pitching on their priority list, and also below acquiring one more big bat.

GM Brian Cashman's goal for the week was to lay groundwork for potential pitching deals, whether in free agency or on the trade market. Everything else took a back seat to that.

Talks with the Brewers about Cameron began before this week's meetings, although word leaked out only the past couple of days. Yankees centerfielder Melky Cabrera and righthanded pitcher Ian Kennedy have been discussed, although a source said the Yankees are not inclined to include Kennedy in such a trade.

Good, I never like this idea.

Melky and Kennedy can now be used in other deals that would help this team more, and is Mike Cameron really the answer for centerfield? I don't think so. The Yankees have enough aging veterans on the team, they need to get younger and a 36 year old Mike Cameron does the exact opposite.

I know a lot of people are against this, but I really think the Yankees should give Brett Gardner a chance. You don't give up on young players after 100 at-bats, especially young players who can run and play defense like he can.