Granderson Trade Analysis

The one thing this trade shows is that fans (or at least me) really are incapable of judging what it will take to trade for a player. Yesterday I was dismissing the idea that Cashman could get Granderson without giving up one of Joba, Hughes, or Montero. However, he got it done with a package centered around Austin Jackson. Personally, I think this is another great Cashman trade here.

In Granderson they get a 28 year old centerfielder who will hold down the position for a very long time at a cheap price. Granted, he's coming off the third straight year of decline but their is reason to think he will bounce back and he's still an extremely valuable player if this is all that he is. He plays solid defense and is two years removed from an MVP type year. His career wOBA is .358 and he plays a very solid centerfield. He's a consistent 20-20 guy who still was worth 3.4 wins last year in an awful year.

The biggest problem with his dissapointing 2009 was that a lot of his FB base hits from the previous years turned into fly ball outs. His FB% shot up about nine points while his GB% sunk about ten points. His BABIP accordingly shrunk but his HR/FB% remained the same. It seems a little flukey but even if it becomes a trend, that short right field porch might give him a few more homers. The guys at fangraphs.com ranked Granderson as the 22nd most valuable player in baseball and they really didn't give up all that much.

Obviously, its tough to see A-Jax go. We've invested a lot of time into watching him grow and develop but you have to give up something and he clearly doesn't have the type of potential that Montero, Hughes, or Joba show. His 2009 season saw him take a few steps backwards and it was probably a good idea to trade him while his flashy BA was still nice and high. Realistically, if A-Jax ends up as good as Curtis Granderson the Tigers will be delighted and probably a little surprised. Ian Kennedy's stock has fallen since the days of "The Big Three" and at his point I don't think their was going to be much room for him on the Yankees. After all, you have the front two spots locked up to huge contracts and a load of other guys trying to make the other spots. Phil Coke is a throwaway to be honest with you. We saw from Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez how quickly a previously reliable reliever can suddenly turn to nothing.

All in all, its not all that impressive of a package for a guy like Granderson. I'm not completely sure what comes next for the Yankees. Obviously, they still are going to go hard after Pettitte and keep tabs on Lackey with the slightly diminished pitching depth. However, Jackson would have been a major piece in any sort of deal for Halladay and I really don't see the Yanks making two blockbuster trades in one offseason coming of the heels of #27. So, I think this makes any possible trade for Halladay even less likely. It puts less pressure on them with the whole left field/DH situation as well. They're still going to sign a guy but they no longer need two, though its still a possibility. It makes Gardner and Melky much more expendable as well.

I'm very happy with the trade myself. Its good to see the Yanks fire the first shot in the AL East winter wars.