Sunday, March 28, 2010

How does the Yankee Offense Stack Up

So, I was watching ESPN the other day (and you know how they love us) one of their baseball "experts" said come July the Yankees will realize they are a bat short. Because much of the off season talk has centered around replacing the production lost from Damon, Matsui, and Melky; I decided to take a look and project what this years Yankees Starting line up will look like at the end of the season.

My projections are based on player 3 year averages when applicable, how they are playing this spring, and adjusting to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. (Granted all are based on full seasons)

Note: I did not include Runs scored because it is difficult to quantify while inserting new players.
Here they are:

Player AVG HR RBI OBP SB
Jeter 0.315 15 63 0.388 20
Johnson 0.280 12 65 0.43 1
Tex 0.300 33 120 0.39 2
A-rod 0.290 37 120 0.4 15
Cano 0.310 20 80 0.35 4
Posada 0.280 20 75 0.365 1
Granderson 0.265 30 75 0.35 18
Swisher 0.245 25 85 0.365 0
Gardner 0.250 3 40 0.32 40

0.282 195 723 0.373 101

I tend to think these projections are conservative, but let's take a look.

The team average of .282 is solid. Home Runs with 195 are down from a season ago, but the projections do not add in production from bench players as well as late season call ups. The total amount of Runs Batted In worries me a bit, but you have to adjust for runs that are scored with no RBI, bench production, as well as late season call up production. OBP sitting at .373 is very solid as always with a patient Yankee line up. Finally stolen bases at 101 is higher than in past years because we are looking at a possible full season of Brett Gardner at the bottom of the order. If Gardner and perform at a measly .250 clip he will provide a dynamic bottom of the order presence that can cause a ruckus on the bases while solid situational hitters like Jeter and Johnson step the plate.

The Yankees took a hit losing Damon, Matsui, and Melky Cabrera's production, but they have adequately replaced them and the Yankee offense will be just fine. Keep in mind these projections are conservative and with a more solid pitching staff the Yankees are primed to be in contention for the AL East crown, and a deep run into October.

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