2010 CHONE Projections

We've already seem the many incarnations of the PECOTA projections, which, in the end, finally got things right (at least in my mind) and projected the Yankees to win the division again. Today, we have the 2010 CHONE projections (hat-tip to TYU) which also has the Yankees winning the division, but also getting the highest projection ever for the system. Before getting to that, here's a look at the projected standings for each division:

Back to the Yankees, and their projection:

Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life. We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won't win that many games.

But yet I'm projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I've ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.

First of all, LOL @ the "Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus" line.... Once again projections are just that, projections, and they mean very little when the games start in just over two months. Still, it's nice to see the Yankees at the top of these things, it's better than being at the bottom.