Saturday, January 14, 2012

More Trade Reactions and Analysis

Fangraphs says the Yankees did not pay retail for Pineda:
Pineda is the third quality young arm to get traded this winter, following the trades that shipped Gio Gonzalez to Washington and Mat Latos to Cincinnati. Given that both pitchers come with one fewer year of team control and lack Pineda’s dominating fastball, a strong case could be made that the Yankees new starter is the most valuable asset of the three guys that were moved. However, compared to the other two packages surrendered, the Yankees didn’t really pay much of a premium to get Pineda, and one could even make an argument that they gave up less value overall than what the Reds surrendered to get Latos.
Then there's this from Mark Simon:
In obtaining right-hander Michael Pineda, the Yankees got a pitcher who looked very promising early in the season, then statistically faded at the end of 2011.

Pineda was 8-6 with a 3.03 ERA prior to the All-Star break, 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA after the All-Star break. The primary culprit was his home run rate, which went from one allowed every 11.3 innings to one every 7.3 innings afterwards.

Pineda was also considerably better in Safeco Field, a pitcher-friendly park. He was 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and .182 opponents' batting average there last season, 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA and .234 opponents' batting average on the road.

Pineda’s fastball averaged nearly 95 mph, tied for the fifth-fastest average velocity among starting pitchers in the majors. Hitters missed on 20 percent of their swings against that pitch, also the fifth-best among starters.

That helped Pineda to 173 strikeouts, the most by a pitcher in his age 22 season or younger (in other words, for pitchers who were 22 before June 30 of that season) since Kerry Wood struck out 233 hitters in 1998.

It also helped Pineda hold right-handed hitters to a .184 batting average, the best of any pitcher who faced at least 200 right-handers last season.

Pineda made nine starts against the AL East last season and he got hit pretty hard, posting a 4.73 ERA and allowing eight home runs in 53 1/3 innings.
See, it's those things in bold that scare me about this deal..... Anyway, moving on...

Here's what Kieth Law said about the other major piece to the trade coming back to the Yanks, highly touted prospect Jose Campos:
Jose Campos is the lottery ticket in the deal, and could very well turn this deal into a steal for the Yankees four or five years down the road. He's an extreme strike-thrower with an above-average fastball that will touch 95, and a slider that shows above-average but isn't consistent yet. Campos needs to work on his changeup and has yet to pitch in a full-season league, so he's several years away from the majors. He's also young enough that the injury risk is still significant, and I'd like to see him get over his front side better as he finishes his delivery. But he won't turn 20 until July, and if he were in the draft this year he'd be a first-rounder, so for the Yanks it's almost like getting an extra draft pick in the deal. For some context on what Seattle gave up, he would have been No. 5 in my 2012 organizational ranks for the Mariners.
Law also gave the slight edge in the trade to Seattle.

On the other hand, Frank Piliere called it was a narrow win for the Yankees

Jayson Stark says the deal one of the most fascinating in years, and thought both teams won in the deal.

Kevin Goldstein also likes the deal for the both teams and called Cashman a ninja sever times on Twitter tonight. He also said there is no pitcher in the Yankees system with more upside than Pineda.

Speaking of Cashman, there was this interesting quote that came via Sweeney Murti:

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