Friday, December 30, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Harper on A-Rod's Terrible Terrible Contract
From John Harper:
It's a deal that, in my opinion, will go down as the worst contract ever handed out in baseball, if not all of sports. I had hoped the Yankees wouldn't let it change the way they do business, but obviously it has.
In case you’d forgotten, A-Rod still has six years remaining on his contract, which means he’ll turn 42 in July of the final year of his deal, 2017, at which point he’ll still earn $20 million, down from the $31 million he made last year.We can clearly see the side-effects of A-Rod's contract with the way the Yankees have handled this offseason, and I suspect that won't change for the life of the deal.
By then, well, the only question was supposed to be how many more home runs had Rodriguez hit than Barry Bonds in surpassing him to become baseball’s all-time home run leader. Now the question, after four straight injury-marred seasons, isn’t just whether A-Rod will get near Bonds’ record but whether he can play anywhere near his superstar level of old.
It’s not about his bat speed but simply his ability to stay healthy. He was an iron man for much of his career, averaging 158 games played from 2001 through 2007. Of course, we know that he had some help in at least some of those years, since A-Rod has admitted using steroids from 2001-03.
But in any case, injuries have prevented him from playing more than 138 games in any of the last four seasons. Because he needed arthroscopic knee surgery last summer and then dealt with a thumb injury upon his return, A-Rod last season played in only 99 games, a career-low, while hitting only 16 home runs.
The drop-off in power last year was clearly linked to his knee injury. Rodriguez, remember, had a spectacular spring training last March, hitting with an explosiveness in his swing that had been absent since hip surgery in the spring of 2009. Hitting coach Kevin Long was so wowed that he was predicting a return to 2007-like numbers; A-Rod hit 54 home runs that year in winning his third MVP award.
So you could make a case that Rodriguez should return to form. He insisted the knee surgery, which repaired torn cartilage, wasn’t anything serious enough to limit him in the years to come, and indeed, it’s the most common of surgeries for pro athletes.
Only now you have to wonder. If it was still enough of an issue for him to seek radical treatment earlier this month, following Kobe Bryant’s advice in getting Orthokine treatment on his right knee — and left shoulder — then it can hardly be dismissed as something that won’t bother him in the future.
It's a deal that, in my opinion, will go down as the worst contract ever handed out in baseball, if not all of sports. I had hoped the Yankees wouldn't let it change the way they do business, but obviously it has.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Yanks Said No To Beltran.... Again
The Fiscally Conservative Yankees
Over these past two months, countless Yankees fans - myself included - have lamented Cashman's apparent lack of activity within the free agent marketplace. C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, and Mark Buehrle have signed, with nary a murmur of genuine interest from the Yankees. Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt remain available, yet appear to be nothing more than a pipe dream. Beyond those five - all of which appear to be a fair upgrade over any number of the starters on the Yankees current payroll - it would seem that there isn't much to be excited about, regardless of the front office's plan of action (or lack thereof).
This begs a simple, yet important question: why? There are two legitimate answers to the question, I think, and I would argue that they are fairly well intertwined.
With respect to the five aforementioned starters, I think a reasonable argument can be crafted in favor of the Yankees disinterest. Wilson, for all of his success in 2010 and 2011, is 31 ... with two years as a starter on his resume. For that, he received a five year deal worth $75 MM - a figure which includes a hometown discount for the Angels. Does that represent a sound investment?
While I do buy into Darvish's potential, we should not forget that that's all we have to work off of - his potential. He has never pitched stateside, and, despite his dominance in the NPB, the historical NPB to MLB transition has been rocky at best. The issues of a different ball, a new culture, and starting every five days are very real, even for a starter of his caliber. Is that package worth a $100 MM or better investment? And, for comparison's sake, did Stephen Strasburg receive a $100 MM bonus? No.
Buehrle has been remarkably consistent for the past decade or so, but is he really worth $58 MM from his age-33 through 36 seasons? Further, consider that he may have cost the Yankees more, as New York state taxes are fairly costly, whereas Florida's are nonexistent.
As for Oswalt and Kuroda, remember that both are older (34 and 36, respectively), and neither have pitched outside of the National League. Oswalt is also coming off of some fairly disconcerting back issues, and Kuroda is only a few months removed from expressing an unwillingness to pitch on the East Coast. There seems to be at least a bit of risk, even on a one-year deal.
Perhaps I am lying to myself, or even sipping the Cashman Kool-Aid. After all, I have argued for all five being a worthwhile pursuit for the Yankees, and I am somewhat reneging on previous statements. However, considering the risks involved, a large investment may well have resulted in a hindsight-fueled lambasting, not unlike those levied against A.J. Burnett and Alex Rodriguez.
The most pressing reasoning for the lack of spending, however, may well be something that has not been discussed here - the ramifications of crossing the luxury tax line under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Joel Sherman does a tremendous job of outlining what the Yankees have to gain by dipping under that line prior to 2014 here. For our purposes, the key passage is this:
With that in mind, the Yankees hesitance to give long-term deals to Wilson, Darvish, or Buehrle is understandable and wholly justified. Standing pat with Ivan Nova, and giving shots to David Phelps, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances, all of which would be making the minimum in 2014, in order to see if they could play a role in the team's future may well take precedence over a one-year flier on Kuroda or Oswalt. For the rotation, this may well be a transitional year. As disconcerting as that may be in terms of going all-in for the World Series ... it makes sense for the team's financial future.
The Yankees will be a competitive team this year. I'm loath to point to the team's record last year, or the successes of Garcia and Nova, or anything of the sort - but there is talent throughout the roster, and every team has its fair share of question marks. All things considered, this isn't rebuilding so much as it's ensuring a more stable future, both in terms of salary commitments and roster spots. As someone that enjoys watching a solid team year in and year out, I respect that.
In the end, it boils down to a rather simple terms: frustrating, yet understandable.
Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza
This begs a simple, yet important question: why? There are two legitimate answers to the question, I think, and I would argue that they are fairly well intertwined.
With respect to the five aforementioned starters, I think a reasonable argument can be crafted in favor of the Yankees disinterest. Wilson, for all of his success in 2010 and 2011, is 31 ... with two years as a starter on his resume. For that, he received a five year deal worth $75 MM - a figure which includes a hometown discount for the Angels. Does that represent a sound investment?
While I do buy into Darvish's potential, we should not forget that that's all we have to work off of - his potential. He has never pitched stateside, and, despite his dominance in the NPB, the historical NPB to MLB transition has been rocky at best. The issues of a different ball, a new culture, and starting every five days are very real, even for a starter of his caliber. Is that package worth a $100 MM or better investment? And, for comparison's sake, did Stephen Strasburg receive a $100 MM bonus? No.
Buehrle has been remarkably consistent for the past decade or so, but is he really worth $58 MM from his age-33 through 36 seasons? Further, consider that he may have cost the Yankees more, as New York state taxes are fairly costly, whereas Florida's are nonexistent.
As for Oswalt and Kuroda, remember that both are older (34 and 36, respectively), and neither have pitched outside of the National League. Oswalt is also coming off of some fairly disconcerting back issues, and Kuroda is only a few months removed from expressing an unwillingness to pitch on the East Coast. There seems to be at least a bit of risk, even on a one-year deal.
Perhaps I am lying to myself, or even sipping the Cashman Kool-Aid. After all, I have argued for all five being a worthwhile pursuit for the Yankees, and I am somewhat reneging on previous statements. However, considering the risks involved, a large investment may well have resulted in a hindsight-fueled lambasting, not unlike those levied against A.J. Burnett and Alex Rodriguez.
The most pressing reasoning for the lack of spending, however, may well be something that has not been discussed here - the ramifications of crossing the luxury tax line under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Joel Sherman does a tremendous job of outlining what the Yankees have to gain by dipping under that line prior to 2014 here. For our purposes, the key passage is this:
As an organization, they are saying they are driven to have a payroll of $189 million or less in 2014 when that becomes the luxury tax threshold. Because the incentives that come via the new CBA are just too great for them to ignore.As per Cot's Contracts, the Yankees currently have $72.125 MM tied-up in Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia for the 2014 season. That leaves a bit over $116 MM to re-sign Granderson and Cano ... and fill an additional twenty roster slots.
For if they are at $189 million or less for the three seasons from 2014-16, they not only avoid paying one cent in luxury tax, which would rise to 50 percent for them as repeat offenders, but they also would get roughly $40 million in savings via the to-be-implemented market disqualification revenue sharing program. However, only teams under the luxury-tax threshold get reimbursed in this program, which is designed to prevent big markets such as Toronto and Washington from receiving revenue sharing dollars, which in turn will lower how much teams such as the Yanks pay (as long as they are under the threshold).
And even if they just went under $189 million for 2014 before going over again in 2015, the Yankees would receive serious benefits. They would get about $10 million in the revenue sharing disqualification program. Also, by simply going under the threshold once, the Yankees would go back to having a 17.5 percent tax rather than the 50 percent that begins in 2014 for them if they never go under. Keep in mind that since the luxury tax went to 40 percent for them in 2005, the Yankees have averaged paying $25.75 million in tax annually.
With that in mind, the Yankees hesitance to give long-term deals to Wilson, Darvish, or Buehrle is understandable and wholly justified. Standing pat with Ivan Nova, and giving shots to David Phelps, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances, all of which would be making the minimum in 2014, in order to see if they could play a role in the team's future may well take precedence over a one-year flier on Kuroda or Oswalt. For the rotation, this may well be a transitional year. As disconcerting as that may be in terms of going all-in for the World Series ... it makes sense for the team's financial future.
The Yankees will be a competitive team this year. I'm loath to point to the team's record last year, or the successes of Garcia and Nova, or anything of the sort - but there is talent throughout the roster, and every team has its fair share of question marks. All things considered, this isn't rebuilding so much as it's ensuring a more stable future, both in terms of salary commitments and roster spots. As someone that enjoys watching a solid team year in and year out, I respect that.
In the end, it boils down to a rather simple terms: frustrating, yet understandable.
Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza
Yanks Sign Okajima
From Anthony McCarron:
The Yankees have agreed to a minor-league contract with former Red Sox reliever Hideki Okajima, according to multiple reports. Okajima, who turned 36 on Christmas Day, will be invited to spring training and could compete for a spot in the Yankee bullpen as a second left-hander alongside Boone Logan.There's not much to be happy about regarding this signing. After three solid seasons to start his career in the States, Okajima has faded a bit, going just 5-4 with a 4.47 ERA over 63 appearances in 2010 and 2011. Last year he spent most of the year in Triple-A. His batting average against vs. lefties has also gotten worse with each passing season.
Okajima, who came to the majors from Japan before the 2007 season, has held lefties to a .218 average, .277 on-base percentage and .323 slugging percentage over five seasons. He was an all-star as a rookie with the Red Sox when he was 3-2 with a 2.22 ERA and five saves.
Kobe Bryant's Assist To A-Rod
From Mike Puma:
According to multiple sources, the Yankees third baseman recently followed a recommendation from Bryant, the Los Angeles Lakers star, and traveled to Germany for an experimental therapy called Orthokine on his bothersome right knee.Let's hope it does work. With the lack of any significant moves this offseason the Yanks are going to need a pretty big year from A-Rod.
The innovative procedure was performed on Rodriguez — with the Yankees’ blessing — within the last month, according to one source. The Yankees first cleared the procedure with the commissioner’s office to avoid the appearance that Rodriguez might be receiving impermissible treatment.
Rodriguez, the source said, would not have had the procedure without the Yankees’ permission. Last season, the team was blindsided by a report that pitcher Bartolo Colon had undergone controversial stem-cell treatment.
Orthokine involves taking blood from the patient’s arm and spinning it in a centrifuge, a machine used in laboratories to spin objects around a fixed axis. The serum is then injected into the affected area — in this case, Rodriguez’s knee.
Bryant underwent the same treatment last summer to try to strengthen his right knee. He also reportedly had the procedure done in October to treat a chronic left ankle ailment.
It remains unclear if the procedure actually works long-term.
Report: Yanks Just Trying to Drive Up Price For Kuroda
From Wallace Matthews:
It has been reported in several places that the Yankees and Red Sox are actively pursuing free-agent right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, but the baseball sources I have spoken with over the past week say it is unlikely the Yankees will make a bid on the 37-year-old former Dodger.Why is it that the Yankees are treating this offseason like they're the damn Pittsburgh Pirates?
The reason? Once again, the luxury tax.
Kuroda is known to want in the neighborhood of $12 million or $13 million for a one- or two-year deal, which may not seem like much when you consider the Yankees are paying A.J. Burnett $16.5 million a year for each of the remaining two years on his contract.
But when you add in the 40 percent luxury tax surcharge, that pushes Kuroda's price to around $17 million a season, which may be a bit much to gamble on an aging pitcher with a 41-46 career record (3.45 ERA) who has never pitched in the American League.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Swish, This Team Isn't Amazing
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and all that jazz to Yankee fans everywhere. It's been an incredibly quiet off season for the 27-Time Champs, as Brian Cashman has been far too busy repelling down buildings than improving a, quite frankly, borderline 90 win team as it stands today.
As much as I'd love to say "this team is great, they won 97 games last year!", I really can't. Yes, last year was a great season considering the circumstances the team was under. Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova all pitched above and beyond anyone thought going into the season. But ultimately, the Yankees fell short of even the ALCS, losing to the Tigers in a heart-breaking 5-game series. While Game 5 was not to hang on the pitching (the Yankees left the bases loaded, what, 15 times that game?), it still doesn't change the fact that the pitching is the Yanks' #1 concern once again.
CC, Nova, and what? A.J. is, well, he's A.J. A bounce back season from him should not be anticipated. Garcia, as great as he was last year, is still 35, and I wouldn't bank on him having another year like 2011. And then you have the 5th spot. Whoever gets it - Phil Hughes or Hector Noesi; well, they don't even have real expectations going into the season. If the Yankees were to make the playoffs again, I don't think even the Mets would be scared to face this staff.
The offense, while still one of the best in baseball, also has some red flags. Alex Rodriguez is probably the biggest concern. Turning 37, A-Rod is no longer an MVP-candidate. No longer in the top 5 players list. He is an aging star who hasn't played in 150 games since 2007. While it seems like he can still hit around .280 and play an above-average third base, he's not a cleanup hitter anymore, and probably won't hit 30 home runs again unless he makes some calls to his cousin Yuri.
Another concern in that offense has to be the captain, Derek Jeter. While having a superb second half of the season, Jeet too is declining and will be 38 next June. As ageless a legend Jeter will go down as, every great player goes through this. This could be Jeter's last year as the starting shortstop, and it's hard to say he'll play so well that the front office decides otherwise next season.
The reason why I don't go out and say "Cash, you need to this....." is because I really don't see him doing anything. They want to stay under the luxury tax, and, despite there being still nice pieces on the market in Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson, if Cash really wanted to do something, he would have done it already.
And the Yankees, as they stand today, are in for a wake-up call next season. We can hope and pray that the Yanks will surprise us again, but I'm an optimistic realist. I can't see the Yanks making the playoffs next season, and if they were to, they'd fall well short of #28, as they did in 2011.
As much as I'd love to say "this team is great, they won 97 games last year!", I really can't. Yes, last year was a great season considering the circumstances the team was under. Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova all pitched above and beyond anyone thought going into the season. But ultimately, the Yankees fell short of even the ALCS, losing to the Tigers in a heart-breaking 5-game series. While Game 5 was not to hang on the pitching (the Yankees left the bases loaded, what, 15 times that game?), it still doesn't change the fact that the pitching is the Yanks' #1 concern once again.
CC, Nova, and what? A.J. is, well, he's A.J. A bounce back season from him should not be anticipated. Garcia, as great as he was last year, is still 35, and I wouldn't bank on him having another year like 2011. And then you have the 5th spot. Whoever gets it - Phil Hughes or Hector Noesi; well, they don't even have real expectations going into the season. If the Yankees were to make the playoffs again, I don't think even the Mets would be scared to face this staff.
The offense, while still one of the best in baseball, also has some red flags. Alex Rodriguez is probably the biggest concern. Turning 37, A-Rod is no longer an MVP-candidate. No longer in the top 5 players list. He is an aging star who hasn't played in 150 games since 2007. While it seems like he can still hit around .280 and play an above-average third base, he's not a cleanup hitter anymore, and probably won't hit 30 home runs again unless he makes some calls to his cousin Yuri.
Another concern in that offense has to be the captain, Derek Jeter. While having a superb second half of the season, Jeet too is declining and will be 38 next June. As ageless a legend Jeter will go down as, every great player goes through this. This could be Jeter's last year as the starting shortstop, and it's hard to say he'll play so well that the front office decides otherwise next season.
The reason why I don't go out and say "Cash, you need to this....." is because I really don't see him doing anything. They want to stay under the luxury tax, and, despite there being still nice pieces on the market in Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson, if Cash really wanted to do something, he would have done it already.
And the Yankees, as they stand today, are in for a wake-up call next season. We can hope and pray that the Yanks will surprise us again, but I'm an optimistic realist. I can't see the Yanks making the playoffs next season, and if they were to, they'd fall well short of #28, as they did in 2011.
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