Keep in mind that you're getting two different points of view; one from John Manuel, and another from SNY's scout, whoever that is.
Here's what he said about Phil Hughes:
"Fastball velocity and command will be the key for Hughes," says Manuel, busy putting the finishing touches on Baseball America's fine Prospect Handbook (slated to be released Dec. 19 and available at BaseballAmerica.com)."If he's 89-92, as he was most of the AFL, he's got to have better command. If he's 90-93, it can be just control, not necessarily command. It sounds to me like the scouting consensus is more mid-rotation than ace these days. The obvious first step is to just stay healthy; he's done that exactly once in his career, 2006."
But it's that disappointing injury history that gives our scout hope that Hughes can beat current market projections of a No. 3 starter.
"Hughes is sliding unfairly because he hasn't been healthy. When you're always rehabbing from injury, your velocity will suffer. What we have here is the expectation game. Calling him a No. 1-level ace was never fair. But to me he still looks like he can be a No. 2 guy to me on a championship-caliber team.
"If he is going to be stuck at 91, then he's a No. 3 guy," the scout continues. "But I think he'll get back to being a tick higher, 92-to-94 mph. That's the key to what he becomes. Again, a lot of this is expectations. We get silly published reports that guys like Hughes throw 95 or 97 when maybe they've done it a few times on someone's gun. People expect that and then keep asking, 'Where's the 97-mph fastball?'
Austin Jackson:
Our scout says Jackson is the Yanks' No. 1 prospect, a view shared by Manuel.
"The whole with Jackson is greater than the sum of the parts," says Manuel, Baseball America's editor. " And the parts are fine. His poor AFL performance shows he's not ready for 2009. But he will be a very solid everyday player down the line. I give him a good chance to be an above-average big league center fielder. Better than Bernie Williams on defense, not quite that good offensively at his peak."
The scout's comp is outfielder Reggie Sanders, who played with the Reds and then bounced around.
"Nice athlete. Nice bat speed. Similar to Mets outfielder Fernando Martinez in that he hasn't had that big Minor League year. Like Sanders, contact rate/plate recognition is his problem. He gets himself out. Prospect-wise, he's solid, not spectacular -- not untouchable by any means. I'd trade him as a main piece for a No. 2 pitcher without thinking twice."
Andrew Brackman:
"He had the best arm in Hawaii Winter Baseball," says Manuel, who rated him that league's No. 2 prospect. "He's inconsistent, showing lots of rust coming back from Tommy John surgery. But he hit 97 mph and consistently sat at 91-96. He has an inconsistent curveball, but a surprising, firm mid-80s changeup."
Our scout didn't seem as impressed.
"He needs one of his too curveballs -- a knuckle-curve that's harder and a loopy one that probably should be scrapped. He can't change speeds well because he's so tall and thus has trouble repeating his motion. And he's already 23. He's high risk, high reward and can't afford another injury."
Ian Kennedy:
On Ian Kennedy, or scout says, "His stuff is marginal but he's tough when everything is clicking. He'll have some good stretches in the majors as a starter, I'm convinced. The Yankees seemingly have turned the page because they put Hughes in the AFL, which is developmental, while Kennedy was awarded to the tougher Puerto Rico league because I think they're trying to establish some trade value -- hoping he'll pitch well against better competition [than there is in the AFL]."
Says Manuel about Kennedy: "He has to have premium command to be a four-pitch, four average pitches guy. His best pitch, the slider, was a 55 (on the 80 scouting scale). He is supposed to be a pitchability/command guy. But does he have the guts to throw his pitch?"
They also discuss infielder Kevin Russo, first baseman Juan Miranda, starting pitcher Jeremy Bleich, who Manuel called the best left-hander in the Hawaiian Winter league, catcher Austin Romine, and relief pitcher Jonathan Albaladejo. Check out the rest of the article here.
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