Three moves.That's what the Yankees have to make this winter and they will be back in the postseason and probably the World Series again next season.
Three mighty moves.
The Rays and Red Sox are ahead of the Yankees because of pitching and defense. That's why these three moves will put the Yankees back on top. Brian Cashman has brought along some good young players and that enables the Yankees to make these moves. These moves are the key pieces of the puzzle.
* Do whatever it takes to sign free agent CC Sabathia. It will be expensive, but it will be worth it to grab the most powerful of the available power pitchers.I completely agree about Sabathia, the Yankees need a guy who can take the ball every fifth day and be their stopper, their ace. The same kind of ace Johan Santana has been for the Mets down the stretch this season. And at least this time around they only have to give up money (a lot of it) to get that ace. Hopefully all that money can convince CC that he actually doesn't want to play on the West Coast or in the National League after all.* Ditto A.J. Burnett. Four initials will make the difference. Add CC and A.J. and the tides change in the AL East.
* Package a couple good young players - and the Yankees have them, especially on their South Atlantic League team, and trade for the Braves' Casey Kotchman. He's a solid hitter and more importantly, he is a tremendous first baseman, something the Yankees have lacked since the Glory Days with Tino Martinez. Current defensive statistics are misleading - the Yankees (only 81 errors) don't get to enough balls. A defensive-minded first baseman, who can handle the bat, is invaluable.
There you have it. Three moves and the Yankees are back to being the Yankees.
However I'm not as convinced about A.J. Burnett, and I especially wouldn't "do whatever it takes" to sign him. He did have a very good season, and especially turned things on down the stretch. But he's only thrown 200+ innings three times in his career, and he's been injury-prone in the past. I wouldn't mind if the Yankees signed him, but I wouldn't mind if they didn't either.
Not sure what it would take to get him here, but Casey Kotchman would be a nice pick up. He's still just 25, plays great defense, and besides his 40 games in Atlanta, has shown he can hit the ball. But I still think the Yankees' best option for first base is Mark Teixeira. He's a much better hitter, and a better fielder than Kotchman, and if they can sign him to a reasonable deal, that's the move they should make for first base.
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I love all three of these ideas, and I do think if they made these three moves they'd at last make it to the postseason.
Sabathia and Tex. Why give up the prospects when we can just make a big move for Tex? With 90 million coming off the payroll, we have money to spend. As for Burnett, there are less expensive more durable options out there.
I do think though that we should open up some trade talks for either Holliday or Kemp to patrol center though. Even if Cano has to be part of the deal.
I agree that they should at least bring up talks with Colorado and LA about those two, but as usual they will probably ask for a lot more from the Yanks than they would take from other teams.
I think Colorado does not have much of choice but to trade Holliday. If they want to get anything out of him before he leaves via free agency next year, they cannot be picky. As for the Dodgers, you have to remember Torre and Bowa work there, so, its very likely they could convince upper management to do a one for one deal knowing Cano's potential on a first hand basis.
I'm sure there will be a market for both players if they're available, so it's not just going to be the Yankees.
As for Cano, yes Bowa and Torre both like Cano, so they will want him in return, but they're not going to convince upper management to make a move they don't want to make.
For years I'd been suspicious of CC. If not for his... unshapely figure... for his inconsistancy. Until this season, the last time he threw 200 innings was 2002, although he's usually close.
This year was easily his best year, but he's at 240 innings already, and now the Brewers are headed into the playoffs with CC as their ace. If the Brewers go deep, he could easily end up throwing another 30 innings. 270 innings? Yikes.
I don't think the Yankees have much of a choice but to go after him, though. They need starters, and depending on what Moose and Pettitte do, they may need more than one. If it were up to me, I'd rather see Andy retire, as he just didn't pitch well this year. 4.5 ERA, 1.4 whip - that's easily replaced, although he's a gamer and he went out and gave us innings. I just fear his stuff isn't getting it done any more, and at 37, I'm not sure what we can expect. He's had elbow issues for years now, and now with his shoulder barking, who knows what he can give us next year.
Moose pitched so well this year, that I pray he comes back. Even if he falls off from this season and his ERA goes up to around 4.0 - with the offense hopefully regrouping and healthier for 2009, they might be able to give him even better run support and get him an easy 15 wins.
As for Burnett, no way. He just can't be trusted to go out there and be healthy for a full season, and when he's not pitching against the Yankees, his numbers aren't even all that great. The last thing we need is to sign him to a big contract, bank on him, and have him break down.
If he wants to take a bit less to play for the Yankees and will accept a short-term (3-4 year) deal, then I'd consider it, but in all likelihood he's looking for 5 years and probably 12M per year, and he'll probably get it. I just wouldn't commit that to him. I'd take the extra cash, make sure we lure Moose back and give CC a few extra dollars to encourage him to come here.
Signing Moose and CC, along with a (hopefully) healthy Joba, and a rotation of Wang, Moose, CC, Hughes, and Joba would be pretty formidable. If you bank on signing Pettitte and/or Burnett, then you could start out with Joba in the pen and see what happens.
Other than CC, I just don't see any attractive free agent starters on the market this year.
The Yankees have been burned in the past by going after the big name players either after their prime or after "big" seasons. I'd like to see them go after the sleeper options once in a while, but unfortunately there aren't too many SP in that category this offseason.
Sheets: I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I'd take a shot at signing him on the cheap, but I wouldn't bank on him being a guy you depend on in 2009.
Derek Lowe: He's had probably the most consistant and best years of his career the last few years with the Dodgers, but I wouldn't trust him in the AL East. At 36 years old, he's also not a youngster.
Jon Garland: His numbers are ho-hum, but they are in Andy Pettitte range. He's started 32 or more games every year since he became a full time starter in 2002, and he only just turned 29. Always been a groundball pitcher, and you could count on him for 30 starts, 200 innings, and Andy Pettitte type results. At the very least he'd be a somewhat decently priced insurance policy in the event Andy isn't re-signed and AJ and CC decide to go elsewhere, and you never know if Eiland can spot something and get him back to a sub-4.0 ERA and an easy 15 wins.
Ryan Dempster: Fluke. A perfect example of a guy NOT to sign based on one good season, and one good National League season, at that.
Freddy Garcia: Meh. Maybe another possible insurance-type option, but again, more health issues.
I really don't see any other FA that are even worth taking a flier on.
Thankfully we've got a few in-house guys who are floating around as SP insurance - Coke, Aceves, McCutchen, Geise, Chase Wright. I feel like any of those guys has the potential to put together a 10-6 type record in 20+ starts. Most of those players are, to me, a better option than overpaying for someone who's just not that good.
I honestly think 2009 depends more on our players staying healthy than on signing any one or two "big" free agents. Honestly, signing one FA starter would be enough. Let's say they sign Sabathia, hypothetically, that would be a rotation of CC, Wang, Hughes, and two of Joba/Moose/Pettitte/Kennedy/other. That would be plenty to make the playoffs, I have no doubt.
Throw in a 1B (ideally Tex but maybe a trade or move for one of our current players) and make some OF decisions, and you're good to go. The only thing holding them back would be injuries like the ones that hit them mercilessly this year.
I'm quite optimistic about our chances in 2009.
Oh and with regard to potentially trading Cano - you're leaving a huge hole at 2B. Plus, his value is low right now (relatively speaking). He's coming off his worst year, so while many takers would still line up, you're not going to get the moon for him.
Cano still has way too much potential to just let him go. When his head is on straight, he's a gold glove caliber 2B with an extremely dangerous bat. He could very well have a bounce-back year next year, and the way he finished the season these past couple weeks, I wouldn't bet against it. I just think he's too young and too talented to give up on him so soon. That's the kind of short-sighted move that burns you.
These moves don't sound bad, but I'd rather have Teixeira playing first base.
Mike
Pinstripes, nice breakdown of all the possibilities. I agree with pretty much everything you said.
I just think that Pettitte will have a bounce back year next year if he returns. He was pitching with a sore shoulder all second half and that's why his numbers ended up the way they were. He also has been told by doctors that he will be fine as long as he rests his arm, which he will be able to now that the season is over.
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