Brett Gardner was drafted by the Yankees in the third round in 2005, from the College of Charleston. Speed was his calling card, speed and the ability to draw walks, but his power was questionable. He hit .284/.377/.376 with 19 steals for Staten Island in the New York-Penn League after signing. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2006 book, noting that I thought he was a slight overdraft, but that I thought he could be a useful player if he showed enough pop to survive at higher levels.
For the most part I agree, but I just think Gardner can be a little bit better than just a fourth outfielder. With his speed and defense I think he could hit enough be a very solid starting in this league. I can see him being a .285 hitter after getting used to MLB pitchers. As Sickels mentions, he struggles at a level before playing much better his second time around. It's happened at every level, so I'm not expecting that trend to stop.What does the future hold? Despite the early problems, I still think he's got a future as a fourth outfielder. Gardner's track record is to thrive at one level, then struggle a bit in his first shot at the next level before adjusting and doing better in the second try. The lack of power is always going to be an issue, but he should get at least some of the plate discipline back. Not all of it: he doesn't have enough pop to scare pitchers into giving him excessive walks, but I expect much of the patience will return in time. His MLEs show him as a .250-.280 hitter with a .340-.370 OBP. The bottom range of that is unacceptable for a regular, but the upper range would be OK given his speed and glovework.
I think the original assessment of Gardner as Jason Tyner with more walks is still a good one. Whether that's enough to be a regular depends on the style of team I suppose. Gardner's glovework in center field is well-regarded; his arm is weak but he has excellent range. If you're getting enough power at other positions, Gardner in center field is plausable, but personally I still think he's best off as a fourth outfielder. HIs offense will be marginal for a regular, although if he hits at the top end you can make a case.
(hat tip to Steve Lombardi)
UPDATE 5:20 p.m.: Hall of Famer Peter Gammons agrees with me about Gardner:
The more one watched Brett Gardner take BP and play, the more one is impressed by his strength. I am convinced that he is going to be an everyday center fielder.
What do you think? What kind of player
do you think Brett Gardner can be?
do you think Brett Gardner can be?
12 Comments:
I agree, he reminds me of a mini Damon but without the red sox linkage.
I think he will develop into a servicable MLB player, especially with his "sparkability"
Not much point having speed if you can't get on base. I don't see Gardner, or for that matter Justin Christian, as anything more than a late inning pinch runner/late inning defensive upgrade unless they can dramatically improve their on-base percentage.
I just can't see as an everyday guy and I'm not sold on the 4th OF option either. I would very surprised if he hit anywhere near .285. I think we're looking at .240+. From the first time I saw him I see a career pinch hitter and late inning defensive replacement. Godd all around guy to have but if something better is available......
Garbage, pitchers are going to start challenging him and he is going to self destruct.
Brett is almost like Melky. They're both great in the field, but when it comes to batting, they just suck.
If he doesn't improve in the near future, I would trade him.
The .285 is a few years away, at least in my opinion.
The thing about him is he always struggles in his first go around at every level, then the next season improves greatly. I'm hoping he can do the same at the major league level.
At least one expert agrees with me, here's what Peter Gammons said today on his blog:
"The more one watched Brett Gardner take BP and play, the more one is impressed by his strength. I am convinced that he is going to be an everyday center fielder."
Gardner does something in every game to help the team win. Gardner plays the Yankees win. I'd like to see him get a real shot.
Gardner has good speed and would be an excellent defensive addition. I think he's going to end up a .250 hitter though.
Brett Gardner is already as good as Jacoby Ellsbury, he simply lacked the playing time to adjust to MLB pitching and thereby put up Ellsbury type numbers. Not that Ellsbury-type numbers are "good," but Gardner leading off for the Yankees for a full season would easily steal 50 bases and score 100 runs.
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