First, from the Rocky Mountain News:
Right-hander Mike Mussina, 39, indicated that if he returns to the Yankees, he would like a three-year deal. Mussina, whose 18-year career has been spent with the Orioles and Yankees, also is hinting that if he doesn't return to the Yankees, he could retire because he doesn't want to become a vagabond.And now for Bobby Abreu from the NY Daily News:
Abreu has said several times that he would like to remain with the Yankees, having enjoyed his 2-1/2-year stint in pinstripes. But the 34-year-old also is seeking at least a three year-contract, leading most baseball insiders to believe the outfielder will wind up in a new uniform this winter.I don't think the Yankees should give Abreu three years, and with Nady, Damon, and Matsui on the team it probably doesn't make much sense to bring him back at all. I love what he brings to the table offensively, but he's becoming a liability on defense, and should only get worse over the next three years. If the Yanks decide to offer him arbitration and bring him back for a year, fine, but three? No thanks.
On the other hand, I would probably give Mussina if that's the only way they can get him back. I know it's risky, especially with a 40 year old pitcher, but he showed this year he can make the adjustments needed to still be a very effective pitcher. He didn't go 20-9 with a 3.37 ERA by accident. Also in the short-term it makes much more sense for the Yankees to sign Mussina than Abreu. They need starting pitching in '09, and Mussina was the best they had this year.
So there's what I would do; keep Moose (even for three years - hey, at least we'll probably get to see him win no. 300), and I'd let Abreu walk. What would you do?
12 Comments:
It all depends on who plays 1st. If they bring Nady, Damon, or Matsui to play 1st there is room for him. I would like that so they can spend money on some pitchers. Thats just my opinion. I think Nady plays a decent 1st so we shall see.
I dont want Mussina back for 3 years because if we can get some big power pitchers and keep Mussina it will stop the kids from coming up.
I think they're going to make a strong push for Teixeira so there's a good chance he will be at first.
As of now it doesn't look like they're getting CC or Burnett. Plus, besdies Hughes, there's no really good pitchers in the minors who are that close. Betances finished in low- A ball and McAllister finished in high-A.
But even with CC, I'd be very happy with a rotation of CC, Wang, Joba, Moose and Pettitte.
Replacing 100 RBI's, 20 hrs., and .300 avg. is not as easy as it sounds. That is what the Yankees would need to do if they decide not to bring Abreu back. Plus his OBP is always among the league leaders. He works the count as well as anybody and has a very selective approach. He also still runs exceptionally well for a 34 yo. From what I've seen of Nady, he seems like a solid player but he IS coming off a career year. Will that be the exception or the rule? Abreu has been solid throughout his career and he didn't show any signs of slowing down. He has never been able to go back on a ball,and has always been shy of the walls, so that is nothing new. His arm is also better than Nady's and he has shown he can play in NY and is a great fit with the club. I would like to see Nady at first base, Abreu in right and Damon in left. That leaves a hole in center. Gardner is NOT the answer and I still believe that Melky is the best 4th outfielder in the league. Which means center needs to be filled either by signing a free agent or via the trade market.
As much as I love the way Mussina has adjusted his pitching style, he is going to be 40. A 2 year deal with an option would be my preference. Three years is stretching it and Mussina knows that. Let's remember one thing, 3 years is the starting point of the negotiations. I'm sure Mussina would jump at 2 yrs. with an option.
"Replacing 100 RBI's, 20 hrs., and .300 avg. is not as easy as it sounds. That is what the Yankees would need to do if they decide not to bring Abreu back. Plus his OBP is always among the league leaders. He works the count as well as anybody and has a very selective approach."
Two words: Mark Teixeira - he's a .300+ BA, 30+ HR, 120+ RBI, .400 OBP guy who plays gold glove defense, and he's a switch-hitter.
"He has never been able to go back on a ball,and has always been shy of the walls, so that is nothing new."
True, but now he has no range going left and right. Really, he has no range in the outfield no matter which was he's running.
I don't feel the same way you do about Gardner, especially when you consider how fast he is and how well he plays defensively. He has also always struggled at every level at first and then got better the second time around. I'd be willing to give him a chance next year.
I agree about Melky.
I also agree that a two year deal with an option would be ideal for Mussina. And you're right, the three years is just a starting point.
Mussina never said that. As has been widely reported on just about every Yankee related blog and news story in the last week, he said that part of his decision is influenced by 300 wins. If he comes back he feels like it will be harder to walk away the closer he gets. He ( like everyone els) also knows it is unrealistic to expect another 20 win season and also unrealistic to average >15 wins a season from here out. 10-12 is more realistic. Therefore if he wants to take a run at 300 he knows that committing to 1 year really means committing to 3. He has to evaluate if he is willing to be away from his family 3 more years.
In no context do I interpret this as him demanding or even wanting a 3 year deal. It just means he would commit himself to trying to play 3 years IF he comes back. A 1 or 2 year deal, 1 with option, 2 with option, or whatever does not prevent him from playing 3.
Plus if he reached 300 in 2 years, I think he would be done. No need to guarantee a 3 year deal IMHO.
Greg,
He has said that if he's going to come back for one he'd like to come back for three for the reasons you mentioned.
I don't think it's a "demand," just what he thinks he needs for 300. So you may be right, if he wins 30 games over the next two years he'd probably retired.
A two-year deal with an option for the third would probably work, and as I mentioned to the anonymous commenter, would be ideal. But I don't think a one-year deal will work. Because if he takes a one-year deal and has a bad '09 he knows the Yanks won't bring him back in 2010.
If Poseda & Matsui are healthy in 2009, Abreau's bat becomes a luxury. The outfield defense has to get better and keeping Abreau won't accomplish the effort to tighten the "D". The fact that Mussina pitched like he did this year implies that his metamorphosis is complete and he has now entered the realm of “crafty veteran” (ala Jamie Moyer) Sign Moose for the 3 year deal and expect to see another 20 win season from him during the run of the contract.
Why is everyody hating Abreu? I would love it if he came back, and who would you get to replace him? McClouth? No. Abreu's a great hitter, and who gives a shit if he's afraid of the wall, he never has to go there anyway.
Also, if Moose wants 300, it might take him 4 or 5 years. How do we know he's going to win 15 every season. I like Moose, but he's getting old.
Because he's not good defensively, it's not just being afraid of the wall, he has no range to his left or right either, and he gets bad jumps on balls which only makes matters worse. They don't need to get anyone to replace him in right field, they have Nady.
A Teixeira is a better hitter than Abreu, so he will replace him in the lineup.
Moose is 30 games from 300. He should have no problem averaging 12-15 wins a year the next two years. If he says around for three years he should have no problem getting to 300. And getting a year older didn't seem to hurt him this year at all.
On Moose:
I don't think it's risky to sign him to a 3 year deal. I think that if Moose got so bad that he saw he couldn't do it any more, and wasn't going to get 300 wins "easily," I think he'd retire with money on the table. I think he's too proud to limp around for a year or two.
With that in mind, and seeing how well he pitched this year, how well he pitched two years ago, and how well Moyer is still pitching at 45-46-82 (however old he is), I'd have no problem giving him 3 years, as long as he's not looking for some weirdly high salary like $15M/year. I'd sign him to 3yrs/$30M though, with the idea that even if we only get 2 years out of it, it's worth it.
The Yankees have to avoid long term deals for aging players. Three year deals for guys that, in a worst case scenario will either retire or you'd have to stick him in the pen, aren't bad moves. The Yankees have money to burn, it's the long term deals for guys like Giambi that end up hamstringing you.
Abreu: I really want him to come back, but not for 3+ years and big money. The main reason I want him back is that I think he's a hard hitter to replace. It's tough to find 300 hitters with close to .400 OBP who take a ton of pitches. He works the pitcher over, which is something that many hitters in this lineup lack. Losing our best "work the pitcher" guy is going to hurt, especially looking at how many times some piece of crap pitcher went 7 or 8 innings and shut us down.
Yes, I agree that Tex would easily replace Abreu in the lineup, but it's not an "either/or" situation where you can "only" sign one of them. The point is that IF you could have them both, the lineup would be sick. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, Arod, Tex, Matsui, Posada, Nady, Cano or something along those lines.
I hate what it does to our flexibility, but I love what it does for the offense, especially becuase like I said, Abreu has been one of our best "battlers," a fairly good clutch hitter, and always makes the pitchers throw lots of pitches. Those are the qualities that the team as a whole has been lacking, and to lose a player like that, regardless of whether you get Tex or not, it hurts.
I've said it before, but I'd bite the bullet and go with a weak defensive outfield for '09 (Damon/Nady/Abreu, w/ Matsui DH) because of the offensive advantages that would, in my personal opinion, make up for any outfield deficiencies. I know that's probably an unpopular and somehow statistically unsound move, but so many games are won by early offensive explosion as opposed to early defensive lapses, at least based on my unofficial observations.
However, if Abreu is seeking a multi-year deal, it makes it a bit more difficult of a decision. Even so, it wouldn't be the end of the world to have him around a few years to DH after Matsui's contract is up. If Matsui's knees can't hold up any more and isn't re-signed, Abreu would make a heck of a DH. The only problem with that however, is who knows what's going to happen with Jorge Posada.
Although I felt the team had to re-sign Jorge, it's put the team in a very difficult position. He may not be able to be the defensive catcher that is needed behind home plate, yet he appears unwilling to do anything but. And if it turns out he's getting killed behind home plate, and doesn't want to play 1B, the only option is to DH him often, which would completely screw up the Abreu/Matsui situation in 09 as well as beyond depending on who's re-signed or if Abreu re-signs a multi-year deal.
So many questions.
No to Bobby, and yes to Moose but for less than three years.
Mike
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