Sunday, December 14, 2008

Has the Yankees' patience already paid off?

Buster Olney takes a look at this question over on his blog:
The winter obsession last year was Johan Santana -- and the Yankees or the Red Sox could have had him. They could have traded for the accomplished left-hander who was about to turn 29. But what folks in both front offices decided was that the double-barreled cost was prohibitive.

On the front end, both teams would have been required to surrender their top pitching prospects -- for the Red Sox, that was Jon Lester, and for the Yankees, that was Phil Hughes -- and then they would have to pay Santana like he was a free agent. It was such an extraordinary price that even the some folks in the Mets' organization wondered, after getting Santana, whether it was the right thing to do.

No, the argument that several executives made with the Red Sox and Yankees was that if you were patient -- patient -- then you might have a shot at a pitcher much like Santana, in CC Sabathia, and the cost would only have one layer. Sure, you'd have to give him a huge contract, but you wouldn't have to give up top prospects along the way.

So the Yankees, in the end, were patient and got Sabathia, and the pundits who are saying that the team has blown up its plan for player development are simply not paying attention. In fact, the signings of Sabathia and A.J. Burnett are absolutely in keeping with the refocus on the farm system.

Because the Yankees waited to pursue Sabathia, rather than deal for Santana, they still have Hughes and Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson and all the players mentioned in the Santana talks, and as the pitching talent pool has increased at the major league level, there is now more time for those youngsters to develop. It's actually been more than a decade since the Yankees have had as much minor league talent stacked up as they do now.
In the fall of 2005, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman mapped out a course for the organization to begin building a powerhouse that combines player development and the power of the dollar, a model that looks an awful lot like what we've been seeing from the Red Sox over the last three seasons. The Yankees continue to move closer to achieving that goal.
I couldn't agree more with Olney here. In fact, I'm surprised that so many people cannot see the position the Yankees have put themselves in, or at least see that they're heading in the right direction. Maybe these folks are just happier blinding themselves to reality, or maybe they just enjoy blaming Cashman for everything.

Yes, the Yankees missed the playoffs last year, and that might just be too much for some Yankees fans to handle, but it may have had to happen to put the Yankees in a better position for the future.

13 Comments:

Anonymous said...

A ton of money + a solid farm system + a lot of talent at the major league level = nice future. I agree with you and Olney completely.

Greg Cohen said...

Yep, people get too wrapped up in one year and forget that you don't only play for the year you're in. The future is just as, if not more important than the present.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree. Do you know what's happening with Pettitte? Any new news?

Greg Cohen said...

Nah, nothing new. They offered him $10 million, Cashman may have added some incentives to the deal but that hasn't been verified. And Pettitte supposedly wanted to think about it over the weekend before he made a decision. I would be very surprised if he didn't resign.

Anonymous said...

If you believe CC is equal to Johan, then one year of no play-offs to keep Hughes, Jackson, etc was worth it! The future will be Cano (patience with him, his swing is too sweet not to be a big-time bat), Joba, Hughes, Jackson, etc. That mix with the FA's (CC, Burnett, Arod) and the homegrown stars (Jeter, Posada, Wang, Pettitte) is what makes championship teams. The stage is set (and what a nice NEW stage it is-love the photo updates). I am pumped for a 2009 World Series...Now, one more bat, and off we go.

Greg Cohen said...

I think CC is one of the best pitchers in the sport. Is he as good as Johan is right now? Maybe. But CC, Hughes, Kennedy, Jackson, and whoever else was being discussed in the Johan talks is > just Johan.

Anonymous said...

This is what other teams/executives have feared: Yankees smartness + Money = Great Success.
The Yankees have money combined with a good and improving minor league system. In baseball that's a lethal combination.
Not too long ago it was just the Yankees and their money. Which didn't exactly equate to success. It mad the roster old and non flexible.
Now add better drafting, smart player development along with still having the most money that spells continued success.

Anonymous said...

Peter F,

Exactly! Watch out for some of those Charleston kids (now in 09 they are actually the Tampa kids) some real ML talent on that team.
One of the reasons why I think they are not after Texeira is because of Montero.
Slowly but surely you will start to see in the next 1 or 2 position players start to come up.
And it starts with Jackson.

Anonymous said...

The Yankees missed the playoffs last year, not because of poor team construction, but because of injuries. Wang, Matsui, and Posada were lost for extended periods of time, and even other guys like Joba, A-Rod, and Jeter missed time. It's not an excuse, and durability of players IS part of building a team, but that's a lot of guys to have hurt.

A 19 game winner and two .300 BA, 100 RBI hitters lost for most of a season will certainly scale back on your win total. And even with all that, they still managed 89 wins. If Tampa Bay had been "normal" Tampa Bay last season, it would be reasonable to say the Yankees might even have been the Wild Card.

Point being, people are quick to blame the Yankee failure to make the playoffs on poor team construction, but they actually fared quite well considering they played in by FAR the best division in all of baseball and with the significant injuries they faced.

no no said...

This is what I'm worried about. The Yankees of the late 90's (no doubt very special teams), the Red Sox of the past few years, and all the other W.S. Champions of the last decade have not been built the way these current Yankees are built. They did not have star after star after star. Granted, it's a stacked lineup, a stacked rotation, but how do you get all these players from different backgrounds and different organizations to work together and seriously work for a common goal? Money isn't the glue that brings a team together... Any thoughts?

theyankeesdollar.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Jason:

I think the baseball world as a whole was spoiled by what the Yankees did. It made everyone think that it was all about the right group of guys having the right chemistry. I disagree. I feel that those Yankee teams, while no doubt had good team structure, They benefitted from two key factors: 1) A solid pitching rotation of starters that pitched well when they needed to, and 2) They had a good degree of luck as well. This resulted in the 4 WS wins, and by virtue of that, they were credited with having some great chemistry.

Every year a team wins the world series, everyone says it's because of how great their chemistry was. They were so unselfish... I don't buy it. It's talent plus luck. Every team has players with various backgrounds, diverse personalities, etc. If they win, everyone credits how well they gelled. Well, the truth is that winning breeds that content, happy feeling. A lot of issues can be swept under the rug when you're winning.

Had the Yankees had a little better luck once the postseason rolled around, as well as a bit better pitching and some timely hitting over the past 5 or 6 years, everyone would be bragging about the chemistry THOSE teams had. Heck, had the Yankees not blown a 3-0 lead over the Red Sox in the ALCS, the Sox still might not have won a WS, and the Yankees probably would have gone on to win the WS that year against the Cards, and everyone would be saying how well that team played as a unit.

The Red Sox got rid of malcontent Manny and everyone thought they'd win it all once the postseason came. They didn't. Was it because of their chemistry? No. They ran into a red hot Rays team, and they didn't play well enough. Simple as that.

Yes, you want to get as many "team first" guys as you can, but winning in MLB is dependent on several other, far more important factors: Talent, health, luck. Talent and health get you to the postseason, and then the luck kicks in as well once you get there.

The Yankees doing the right thing - they're stacking up on as many quality arms as they can find. With a (hopefully) healthy Wang, Posada, Matsui, and Joba, the team is already ahead of last year. Add in Sabathia and Burnett, and they're even stronger. Add in the fact that Cano is very likely to do better than last year, that it's almost impossible for us to get less production out of our CF than we got last year, PLUS Nady for a full season instead of just half, and the team is considerably better than last season, even with the losses of Abreu, Moose, and Giambi.

The key to the Yankees success in 2009 and beyond isn't voodoo or chemistry or any abstract intangible. It's going to be health and steady performance from their players. If everything falls right, the Yankees can easily win in the playoffs, and if/when they do, everyone will credit their "chemistry." I'll know the truth though - it was health, talent (especially pitching-wise), and a bit of luck thrown in for good measure.

no no said...

Yeah, I think you're right about what you said. Everything really stems from winning. When a team wins, they look good doing it, and that can be mistaken for team chemistry. The pitching definitely is the most important part. In order to start getting that "chemistry" or good vibe going, teams have to pull off a good winning streak to know that they can win on any given day, up by 1 or down by 5. And, in order to win those games that really build the character of a club, it takes a solid rotation, efficient middle relief, and a dominant closer. It all starts with that rotation, and I think all the Yankees will have a much more consistent season next year.

How many games last year were the Yankees already out of the game before the started? Maybe the inconsistencies of the offense were due in part to the starting pitching. If your team is constantly down 3 runs after the first, everybody starts to press and try and do too much, no matter how hard you try to take it one step at a time. Just human nature. I think we'll see great years from most of the guys on the offense this season.

Anonymous said...

EXACTLY Jason, especially with reagard to the pitching. I said it time and time again last season - the offense faced so much pressure knowing they had Ponson or Rasner or whoever going on the mound. They would give up 2 or 3 runs by the 2nd inning, and the offense would be pressing all game. As you say - they'd try not to, but it's almost impossible not to.