Stats Say A-Rod Wasn't Tipping

Dan Rosenheck of the New York Times took a look at the allegations in Selena Roberts' new book that Alex Rodriguez would tip pitches to opposing middle infielders in blowouts in hopes that they would return the favor. He Rosenheck believe the most important question regarding these allegations is if he did tip pitches, what was the effect. He asks, "Were Rodriguez’s gaudy Texas stats actually inflated by suspicious offensive outbursts at the tail ends of blowouts? And did rival second basemen and shortstops show a similar pattern?"

To provide an answer, one must first define which game situations the tipping was likely to take place in, versus those in which no foul play would be suspected. Roberts does not specify how far out of reach a game had to be before Rodriguez would have broken out his signals. But if such a pattern did exist, it should be fairly easy to detect using a statistical tool called Leverage Index. Developed by Tom Tango, the author of “The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball,” Leverage Index is a quantitative measure of how important any particular moment in a game is to the outcome. A hit when the L.I. is 1 (the first batter of the game) has one-third the impact of the same hit when the L.I. is 3 (for example, bases loaded and none out in the top of the fifth, with the home team leading by two), and three times the significance of that hit when the L.I. is 0.33 (bases empty and two outs in the bottom of the sixth with the visitors leading by four).

If a tipping conspiracy were in place, one would expect that Rodriguez and rival middle infielders in games he played to have hit better in low-leverage situations than in high-leverage ones. Using a fairly loose definition of high leverage as a L.I. above 1.5 and low leverage as below 0.7, the data provide a resounding answer: either no tipping was going on or it was pathetically ineffective.

Contrary to his reputation as a choker, Rodriguez was actually at his best when the game was on the line as a Ranger. According to data compiled by Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference.com, his combined on-base and slugging percentages (O.P.S.) from 2001 to 2003 was 1.076 in high-leverage situations, compared with 1.017 for medium leverage and .982 in low leverage. Opposing second basemen and shortstops showed the same pattern. They registered an .899 O.P.S. when leverage was high, .825 when it was middling, and .817 when it was low. Unless Rodriguez’s behavior was even more nefarious — tipping only when it mattered most — the numbers give no reason to believe he was involved.

Using a more stringent definition of blowouts yields the same result. In plate appearances in which the teams were separated by seven runs or more, Rodriguez mustered just a .851 O.P.S., compared with 1.021 when the margin was six or fewer runs. His middle infield counterparts compiled a .744 mark in the laughers and .840 the rest of the time.

Based on these stats I would say that he wasn't tipping pitches. Even if he was it clearly wasn't helping anyone, and I don't think he'd put that much effort in tipping if it wasn't helping him.

I think Selena Roberts looks a little pretty foolish right now. Not only does it make here look like a liar, but makes her look like she couldn't care less about lying. She could have checked these stats and making sure there was some real evidence behind these allegations. Apparently that wasn't one of her top priorities.

What do you think, are these stats enough in your mind to clear A-Rod of these allegations, or do you just still think he could have been tipping?