Monday, June 22, 2009

Guest Post: A Look At Some Slow Starts

This is the third guest post from my buddy James Miller, and just the fourth in the brief history of Sliding Into Home. Hopefully there are many more as time goes on.

Today, he takes a look at some of the slow starts from around the league.

We're just about 1/3 of the way through the 2009 season and I couldn't help but notice some of the surprisingly awful numbers certain players are putting up.

Let's start with Angels second basemen Howie Kendick; he's been a .300 plus hitter at every level of the minor leagues, hit .322 in 2007 in the majors and holds a .294 career batting average in the big leagues. Not to mention he has a .468 batting average against the Yankees over 79 at bats. This season he is hitting .231 with a .281 on base percentage so recently (June 13th) he was optioned to Salt Lake of the Pacific Coast League (AAA) to retool himself.

Let's now shift to the National League briefly. Former Yankee, Alfonso Soriano, usually lives around the .275-.290 range as far as batting average is concerned and he is also capable of hitting 30-40 home runs in a season. While the power numbers are impressive, his batting average is this year as the lead off man for the Cubs is pathetic. He's hitting .224 with 14 home runs and 30 runs driven in. Here's where it really gets bothersome; with the bases loaded he is batting .000 (0/7), with runners in scoring position and 2 outs he is hitting .160, his RISP average is .157, and with runners on base he is hitting .203. 9 of his 14 home runs have been solo shots.

Keeping it NL, let's look at 2007 NL MVP, Jimmy Rollins. Rollins' on base percentage would not even be a respectable batting average for a lead off hitter at .261. He's hitting .217 and is 0 for his last 10 and 3 for his last 14. He was hitless the entire Baltimore series this past weekend while his team was swept by the last place Orioles. At home, Jimmy struggles the most hitting just .197 and was even dropped to 5th, 6th and 9th (1 game) in the batting order. His RISP is .210 and his RISP with 2 outs is .171. Rollins has been a huge part of the Phillies success the last 2 seasons, although they are in first place right now he will definitely need to find his swing if the Phillies will go deep into the postseason.

David Ortiz: While it pleases me to see him struggle without Manny (except against the Yankees since Posada doesn't seem to understand how to get him out yet) it's also alarming to see someone decline this fast. Similar to the downfall of Andruw Jones last year, Ortiz's power numbers have completely abandoned him. He is hitting .213 and has struck out 62 times, he only has 6 homers and 30 RBI's. Currently Ortiz has been dropped to 6th in the order and holds a .236 average in that slot. Mind you, his .213 average comes after a 2 hit game vs Atlanta yesterday, only his 11th multi-hit game of the season. Ortiz is .214 with RISP and .207 with nobody on base which probably means he continues to hit into shift after shift making him an easy first out consistently. This decline started to rise to the surface last season, but this year he has been significantly worse.

Finally we have Alex Rodriguez aka A-Rod. I don't want to sound as if I defend him because he is a Yankee, but it would be unfair to omit the fact that among the players that I have called out here, he is the only one that is recovering from an injury while trying to play through it. Watching every game, I have seen the positive effect that his presence in the lineup has had on other hitters. He's been getting on base despite his disgusting batting average of .213. He has a .371 on-base % and has walked more than he has struck out 30/26. I can't complain about his 9 home runs through 40 games but for Alex, that's a decline. with runners in scoring position he is hitting .235 with 3 homers and 21 RBI's. He has been especially disappointing in June, hitting .153 compared to his .260 start in May, which everyone excused due to the fact he was coming off minor hip surgery during the offseason. Currently the Yankees are 4 games out of first place, yet they are 0-8 vs Boston. Alex is hitting .100 against the Sawx (1-10). Once again, he hasn't been the most clutch player ever.

For all these guys, and the other slow starters around baseball, the positive side is that there is still about a full month left of baseball before even the all-star break comes so there is time to turn it around. But I still wonder, why the slow start. Only 2 of the 5 players I mentioned (Rollins-USA, Ortiz-Dominican Republic) played in the WBC in March, so I'm not gonna cry up that tree. Personally I think something like the WBC would only help a hitter as opposed to a pitcher who might suffer from arm fatigue such as Dice-K. All of these players are crucial to their teams success and they all play for potential contenders. In my opinion, the struggles of these players are leading to their teams underachievement thus far in the season, aside from Ortiz and the Sawx who are 15 games over .500, and in first place. It will be interesting to see if these guys can turn their seasons around and if they do, will their respected ball clubs follow their lead.

- James Miller
------------------------------------------

If you are interested in writing a post or contributing regularly to Sliding Into Home, please email me at SlidingIntoHomeBlog@gmail.com.

6 Comments:

Anonymous said...

No steroids.

Greg Cohen said...

I can't comment on the others, but I think A-Rod's problem has been a combination of several things. Poor injury management on the part of the Yankees is one of the main things. You can keep running a guy out there when he's not 100% ready and is coming off hip surgery, especially when the doctors advise against it.

The second thing is I think all the A-Rod is the savior talk got to his head. He looks like he's trying to hit a home run every at-bat and I think he just needs to try to hit singles up the middle and to the opposite field. The homers will eventually come.

Oh, and all that stupid booing isn't helping matters.

Anonymous said...

Every year this happens to a bunch of players, and it always seems to be random. There are guys who are notorious slow or quick starters, but I don't think you mentioned any of those guys here James.

With A-Rod I think Greg is right and that the Yanks screwed up. But I also think the lack of roids may be hurting him. Who's to say he didn't use over the past few years as a Yank?

James Miller said...

Anon, I agree with you about notoriously slow starters, however that wasn't the focus of the entry. I think the size of the names I mentioned is astonishing considering just how badly they are playing offensively. None of the guys I named fall under the slow start category so I thought it was Interesting that 1/3 of the way through, they are all hitting under .230. These are all top of the order guys, who have proven to be extremely productive hitters. I think the simultaneous decline is worth noticing.

Anonymous said...

What do you think the cause might be, James?

A-Rod has his own issues with the injury and New York. Ortiz is getting older, his bat could be slowing down - same can be said for A-Rod too actually. Kendrick, Rollins and Soriano are surprises to me.

James Miller said...

It could stem from a number of things, I agree with what Greg said about Alex, I think that age could also be a factor. As far as Rollins is concerned along with Sori, i'm pretty shocked at their lack of production thus far.