Right now, things look great for our favorite baseball team. Everything is clicking right now and they're winning baseball games. The starting pitching in particular has looked good since they started the second half. However, their is danger on the horizon for the staff. The Yankees vaunted pitching depth from the start of the year has been diffused by injuries, ineffectiveness, and moves to the bullpen. Joba is approaching his innings limit, Sergio Mitre's position isn't exactly secure, and theirs always the threat of injury. Of the names of possibly available pitchers, the most interesting (not named Lee or Halladay) is Paul Maholm.
Maholm has always been a highly touted player. The Pirates picked the college lefty with the eighth overall player in 2003 draft. He did not disappoint Pittsburgh either. He put up good numbers throughout the minors. The Pirates promoted him up level by level fairly aggressively and, other than a twelve inning hiccup in A ball, he rose to each challenge. In 2005 he made his ML debut and got off to a very promising start. In 41.1 innings he had an ERA of only 2.18. His K/BB was only 1.53 but he benefited from a relatively high GB% and kept the ball in the ballpark. So, his FIP was much higher than his ERA but still a solid 3.84.
After the promising start, Maholm came back down to earth. Both 2006 and 2007 were bad years for Maholm. His ERA's were high and at 4.76 and 5.02, however, the Pirates stuck with him and were rewarded last year. Maholm emerged as the Pirates' ace in 2008 and had people thinking that he'd finally figured things out. Much like his rookie year though, he'd pitched much better than his FIP would indicate and the roller coaster ride would continue in 2009. This year his ERA has shot back up to 4.63 and he's been most reduced to mediocrity, allowing to many baserunners. However, ironically his DIPS numbers are the best of his career. His FIP is down to 3.57 and he's been victimized by a high BABIP of .326. The lowering FIP has actually been a trend for Maholm. Here's his FIP's since his first full year in 2006:
2006- 4.81
2007- 4.60
2008- 4.15
2009- 3.57
Notice the pattern? Maholm has been steadily improving under the radar for years. Now he's a 27 year old lefty with a fabulous FIP. Not only that but his value can't be all that high when you consider his traditional stats and the idiocy of the Pirates front office. We've heard a couple times recently that the Pirates would be willing to move anybody and for the right package of prospects he could be had without the Yankees giving up any of their A list guys. If they could buy low on Maholm they'd have a young, front of the rotation lefty for the next few years on the cheap. I think if the news on Wang over the next few days is bad, the Yanks are suddenly going to be linked to a lot of pitchers, Maholm included. Its possible that Littlefield knows what he is doing and wouldn't trade Maholm for less than some of the Yankees top prospects. However, its also possible that Cash could take advantage of Maholm's high BABIP and steal him away from the Pirates.
Friday, July 24, 2009
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14 Comments:
You sold me, lets do it. We could def use one more starter.
I've seen some people yammering for Zach Duke, those people are crazy. Maholm is the guy to target from the Pirates.
My only concern is his GB/FB ratio has been going down year by year. With his K rate it needs to stick closer to the 2:1 than it has been this year.
What's Joba's inning limit this year? 150 or so?
Thanks guys
Joba threw very slightly over 100 innings last year if I remember right, so by the Verducci rule it should be about 130. I think the Yanks are going to be more flexible if they're in a pennant race though, so 150-160 may be a more realistic goal.
wonder if dan haren could be had for a package including either ajax or montero (not for joba or hughes)
I don't think Dan Haren could be had for less than what the Diamondbacks got him for, and that is basically Joba+Hughes+AJax+Montero.
Even then he's signed to a very good contract and I don't see the Diamondbacks trading him.
Dan Haren is going to cost a similar package to Halladay, maybe even more.
We dont need an ace, just an average starter to eat innings and keep our bullpen rested enough to be ready for the playoffs.
Dont trade the future!
-G
I wouldn't mind Maholm. I don't think he's make that much of an impact, but he's a better option than Mitre, and probably would cost the farm.
I agree about Haren too, he's going to cost an arm and a leg.
I don't think you can call Maholm as a 'front of the rotation lefty'... he hasn't performed anywhere near enough to indicate that that's what his future will be.
I think Maholm would be a great fit with the yankees. He just needs some veteran leader to help him and I think Pettite and Sabathia can help him as well as burnett. Go get him.
I'm from Pittsburgh and I see Maholm pitch a good deal, however:
I wouldn't put too much stock in the idiocy of the Pirates front office anymore. Ever since Neal Huntington took over they've made some big moves and traded some popular players, but until the LaRoche trade they've come out ahead in the deal. LaRoche was a classic "let loose because the other guy will pay him" scenario, but I wouldn't consider it the norm.
Greg is right, Maholm would cost the farm if we were to pick him up. It would probably need to involve significant money contributions, as well as cheap middle infield prospects so the Pirates can scare Freddy Sanchez (2B) and Jack Wilson (SS) into taking the deal Huntington offered them last week.
Just my two cents.
Oh and the point I initially wanted to make until I really got into the post: if Maholm had some goddamn run support he would be phenomenal.
Good run support does not make a pitcher phenomenal... being able to pitch may make a pitcher phenomenal.
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