Does Hughes Really Need a Changeup?

When Chien-Ming Wang first came off the DL the Yankees had a tough decision to make. It was obvious that Phil Hughes would be getting bumped for the Yankees' former ace. However, they had to decide whether to put him in the bullpen or send him down to Scranton. The Yanks went with the former option and its pretty tough to argue with the results that he's produced for them. However, some still maintain that he needs to work on developing his changeup in Scranton. The idea being that he cannot be an effective ML starter without being able to throw a changeup.

I've been skeptical of this idea since I first heard it so I decided to look at the numbers of pitchers who've thrown their changeup up 5% of the time or less in recent years. Why 5%? Because A) Phil has thrown the changeup 4.4% of the time for his career and B) Its an easy cutoff point. Fangraphs.com conveniently has the option of sorting these stats three years at a time so we'll use intervals of three years and look at the list of pitcher's who've thrown it and their FIP's for those years. (For those of you unfamiliar with FIP, it stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and according to The Hardball Times is "a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.")

2002-2004:

• Kevin Millwood- 3.29, 3.59, 3.80
• Roger Clemens- 3.30, 3.60, 3.11
• Roy Halladay- 2.97, 3.23, 3.79
• John Thomson- 4.55, 4.13, 3.90
• Kerry Wood- 3.86, 3.71, 3.80
• Vicente Padilla- 3.72, 4.25, 4.65
• Ben Sheets- 3.76, 3.98, 2.65
• Matt Clement- 3.34, 4.14, 4.08
  
• Miguel Batista- 3.83, 3.49, 4.94

2005-2007*

• Daniel Cabrera- 4.02, 4.20, 5.01
• Kevin Millwood- 3.73, 3.87, 4.55
• Randy Johnson- 3.78, 4.27, 3.20
• Dan Haren- 3.89, 4.12, 3.70
• Tim Hudson- 4.33, 4.55, 3.46
• Matt Morris- 3.99, 4.51, 4.45
• Carlos Zambrano- 3.70, 4.14, 4.58
• Jose Contreras- 4.21, 4.10, 4.71
• Roy Halladay- 3.03, 3.60, 3.55

2008-2009*

• Dan Haren- 3.01, 2.63
• Carlos Zambrano- 4.23, 4.74
• Aaron Cook- 3.76, 4.45
• Kevin Millwood- 4.02, 4.71
• John Lackey- 4.53, 3.92
• Chad Billingsley- 3.35, 3.64
• Braden Looper- 4.52, 5.75
• Roy Halladay- 3.03, 2.85
• Aaron Harang- 4.79, 3.95
  
• Roy Oswalt- 3.80, 3.78
• Andy Sonnanstine- 3.91, 5.10
• Jon Lester- 3.64, 3.21

*Tim Wakefield would have appeared on both of these lists. However, he was omitted because he is so different Phil Hughes, or any other pitcher.

So, what can we take from this? A quick glance at the names shows some of the best players in baseball and some great FIP numbers. Its obvious that their are plenty of excellent pitchers who get by, even dominate, only throwing a changeup every once in a while. Hughes can throw a fastball, curveball, and a cutter well. I don't see why he needs a fourth pitch so badly. Would it be nice for him to be able to throw a change? Yes, but its not critical for him to have a successful ML career. Even if he spent the entire year down in Scranton, his change is never going to be more than just adequate and I doubt very much he'll end up throwing it more than once in a while.

Is it worth sacrificing the mini Mo we have in the bullpen just for the sake of him learning a changeup? Maybe, but please can you stop framing the argument that Hughes should've gone back to Scranton around the fact that he needs to learn a changeup? He was pitching well in the rotation without one and will continue to pitch well in the future without one.