Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Grading the Pitchers - The Rotation

Greg is doing the position player past of this so I'm doing the pitchers. I'm going to make two separate posts for the bullpen and the rotation. So here's the Yankees starters:

LHP - C.C. Sabathia (8-6. 3.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 128.1 IP, 110 H, 55 ER, 38 BB, 95 K)

So far Sabathia has not been the ace he was brought in to be. However, he has been a very good pitcher who can eat up a ton of innings. Even when the guy struggles, he will battle for seven or eight innings and give the bullpen a rest. How he does in the second half will be a major storyline for the Yankees. If he catches fire like he did last year and goes from being a good pitcher to an elite one then the Yanks are going to be tough to beat going down the stretch. On the other hand, all these innings could catch up with him. He already has suffered from sore biceps. Girardi has to be much more careful with his use of him. Less 120 pitch outings when its clear he doesn't have his best stuff would go a long way to helping him stay fresh for the rest of the year.

Grade: B+

RHP - A.J. Burnett (8-4, 3.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 107.1 IP, 95 H, 45 R, 53 BB, 101 K)

A.J. got of to a good start but then came back down. His downward spiral climaxed with a terrible performance in a big game against the Red Sox. Since then though, he's completely turned things around. Over the past couple games he's been nothing short of dominating and right now is arguably the Yankees best pitcher. His ERA of 3.77 is excellent if not quite outstanding. However, his DIPS numbers are much less impressive. His K/BB is only 1.91 and his FIP is at 4.56. This is much lower than it was a couple weeks ago but still not great. The problem is his high walk total. Before his recent hot streak he, like Joba, seemed to be nibbling. Now he's challenging guys and the results show. As long as he keeps challenging hitters he should be fine for the rest of the year.

Grade: B-

LHP - Andy Pettitte (8-5, 4.85 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 107.2, 121 H, 58 ER, 44 BB, 70 K)

Pettitte has been exactly what most people expected from him this year. He's a 36 year old pitcher who can eat innings and give you a solid performance. He's been very up and down this year. Sometimes great, sometimes awful. He's coming off of a bad start so his ERA and FIP are high, both around 4.80. However, he's on pace for well over 200 innings and his second half innings have historically been better. The key for Pettitte is for the Yankees to keep him away from Yankee Stadium when they can. His home/road splits are very dramatic and I think Girardi is smart enough to set up the rotation to help Pettitte succeed. Andy is still a fighter and even though he can't throw as hard as he used to be able to he's going to continue to be a decent back of the rotation starter for the Yankees.

Grade: C-

RHP - Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.25 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 89 IP, 97 H, 42 ER, 42 BB, 78 K)

Joba dominated in the rotation last year and was even more electrifying in the bullpen the year before. So, the bar was set pretty high for him coming into the year. Really, unfairly high for a 24 year old only a few years out of college. So, now that he's hit a rough patch people are calling for a demotion or a move to the bullpen, although that never really stopped. If you look at his numbers on the season, though. They're really not bad at all. Just not great. I think Joba's problem is in his head. He's afraid to challenge hitters and he walks guys. Then when he gives up the inevitable home runs in the new stadium, it hurts even worse. For now, its to early to send Joba to Scranton but with another bad start or two, you need to start thinking about it.

Grade - C

RHP - Chien Ming Wang
(As a starter: 1-6, 11.38 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 34 IP, 57 H, 43 ER, 17 BB, 22 K)

Wang has been terrible for most of the year. Historically bad before heading for the DL and then just bad before finally figuring things out and becoming a solid pitcher again. He got hurt again as soon as he started looking like a 19 game winner again. Those last couple starts are the only things that keep him out of Igawa Territory (an F). Its unclear how long he's going to be out now but when he returns he could be able to redeem himself a bit. Maybe even push them into the playoffs. They need Wang back for this team to work.

Grade: D-

RHP - Phil Hughes (As a starter 3-2, 5.45 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 34.2 IP, 37 H, 21 ER, 15 BB, 31 K)

Phil wasn't bad in the rotation. He showed his potential in a couple of his starts but was up and down overall. Towards the end of his stay in the rotation he started really come into his own and seemed on his way to an excellent year. You can't have a 19 game winner as your mop up man though so Phil got moved to the 'pen and Wang took over in the rotation. Still, Hughes sent plenty of encouraging signs in his time starting and I'm sure he'll be back in the rotation for the entire year in 2010, even if he's been delegated to the eighth inning for now.

Grade - C

Overall Staff

Things look ugly right now. The staff's stats are below average across the board. However, you have to attribute a lot of that to these guys adjusting to the new stadium which has turned out to be a launching pad. Their was a period where Burnett and Joba just seemed terrified to throw strikes for fear of giving up the long ball. They have a staff full of second half pitchers and I'm hoping for them to turn things around. That said, for the first half these pitchers have been huge disappointments.

Grade - C

14 Comments:

Anonymous said...

wow i disagree with the majority of your ratings.

burnett has shown that he can be our most effective pitcher (i'd give him a B+ to an A-) and what he brings to the clubhouse beyond his pitching is worth mentioning.

sabathia has been utter garbage at times (6 runs to the MARINERS?!) and besides his cg against the orioles has been mediocre (B-/C+)

andy has been andy, but his road numbers have been really impressive (with the exception of his last start against the angels, but hell everyone sucks against the angels at their park) (B-/C+)

joba has not been good. with the exception of a couple of away starts his first half was ugly. (C-/D+)

i don't think it's quite fair to rate wang, considering the amazing strength and conditioning staff for the yankees have found ways to screw him up over and over again since last year's DL stint.

hughes has been great. he's been nearly unstoppable coming out of the pen and his near SHO against the rangers was awesome. (B+/A-)

overall starters grade: B

overall bullpen grade: A- (without veras and excluding tomko we have a damn impressive pen)


except for joba all pitchers have shown they can be effective. that's already an improvement from last year (remember darrell rasner was starting against the angel last year) there's still room for improvement (especially for joba and the yankee strength and conditioning staff) but overall it hasn't been too bad...


think of all the games we've lost thanks to AWFUL
hitting with RISP and how many hundreds of runners we've left on base so far...then you realize that many of these pitchers would have a few more wins and would probably look a lot better

Anonymous said...

You used the improper form of there (you used their, showing possession) in the final paragraph.

Anonymous said...

I didn't know this was an English class?...

Greg Cohen said...

Anon, why are you making a big deal out of how he spelled their... I'm sure I've done that 50 times this week.

Anyway, here are my grades:

CC: B- Hasn't been the ace we expected yet.
Burnett: B Only guys living up to his rep.
Pettitte: C- Can't pitch at home, now he's starting to struggle on the road as well.
Chaberlain C-
Wang D- Injuries and awfulness.
Hughes C Like Mike said, showed signs.

By the way, I'm basing my grade of Hughes and Wang solely on their work as starting pitchers.

And I agree with Mike on the overall staff grade, which would be a C.

Scotty B said...

I'd have CC a little lower, AJ a little higher. Pettite a little higher. Joba is about right. Wang can't get anything other than an F in my book. Last but not least I'd have Hughes a little higher.

Greg Cohen said...

Scotty, if you were basing things just on Hughes as a starter you'd give him higher than a C?

Anonymous said...

you guys work hard on this site, keep up the good work.

Mike N. said...

Anonymous (first post), I don't see how you can give the starters any higher than a C when they've been indisputably below average. If anything, I was being a little generous consdering the expectation in Spring Training for these guys.

In the AL (14 teams) they rank 12th in ERA, 11th in FIP, 10th in K/BB, LAST in BB/9, and 10th in HR/9.

You cherrypicked random games but ignored others. You need to look at the season as a whole.

Mike N. said...

Fixed their :)

Anonymous said...

are those stats aggregate pitching stats or just from our starters?

like i said, although our pitching hasn't been as good as hoped, i blame wang's lack of effectiveness on how the organization has handled his injuries as opposed to his actual pitching ability. so, i don't even factor him in, which would certainly bring up the rankings a lot. and if you are using aggregate stats, then you should take away veras' numbers and then look at them.

i definitely wouldn't say i'm cherry picking...

like i said sabathia has only shown a couple of times to be as good as advertised...andy has been solid on the road with the exception of the anaheim start (looks like he's pitching underhand at NYS though), burnett's been great and still getting better, etc. etc.

there is a difference between using specific examples to make a case and cherry picking.

- the first poster

Greg Cohen said...

The stats in the post are their stats as a pitcher.

Anonymous said...

I agree with your ratings on our starting pitching. And considering all this, we are still in second place only 3 games behind the Red Sox and leading in the Wild Card race. We've been lucky. However, luck has it's moments and talent is left to speak for itself. They need to improve if they wish to remain competitive and not rely so much on "luck".

Good ahem luck Yankees! Play better ball!

Scotty B said...

sorry you are correct Greg....as a starter he was def a C.

Mike N. said...

The stats I used are solely for starters so Veras didn't affect it at all.

You can't just ignore the fact that Wang has been downright awful for the first half of the year. Those starts actually happened, his runs did count, and you can't pretend it didn't happen. I'm not condemning Wang's future, I'm just saying he has been a massive dissapointment so far this year.

Sabathia has overall been pretty good. Rarely great but generaly at least very good. He's eaten up a ton of innings and has guarenteed the bullpen a rest. Burnett has had good days and bad days. Like Sabathia he has also eaten up plenty of innings. You also can't just ignore Pettitte's struggles at home. Half his games are played there and he has to be able to pitch there.