As soon as Yankees fans learned that Roy Halladay was on the trading block, they immediately began dreaming up possible trade scenarios. Obviously most of the speculation has been about whether or not you up the Yankees best prospects for Roy Halladay. However, their's another way the Yankees could get this done. The Blue Jays are inundated with bad contracts. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are seen as having the worst of them. The Yankees are one of only a handful of teams that actually have the ability to take on a bad contract for the privilege of getting an elite player like Roy Halladay.
Under no circumstance should they take on Vernon Wells. First of all, he'll earn 110 million dollars from now through 2014. That's an average of slightly over 20 million dollars a year. Besides that he has a no trade clause. To be worth that he has to be one of the best players in baseball. He's not. At this point he's one of the worst players in baseball. His offensive numbers have fallen of a cliff. Last year he had a line of .300/.343/.496 and this year, instead of bouncing back, he's slipped to .263/.312/.411. That's not the worst of it though. What's most shocking about Wells is that he can't field anymore. He's gone from a top notch fielder with a sterling reputation to an overweight, old player who has the worst UZR/150 in all of baseball at any position (-31.9). This means that his current value to the Jays is actually one game below replacement level so far this year. Any move where the Yanks took on Vernon Wells would be bad on a Carl Pavano/Kei Igawa level.
The other guy who has gotten mentioned is Alex Rios. Theirs a lot of disappointment among Jays fans about him and his contract. He's guaranteed at least 59 million dollars from 2010 through 2014, that's about 12 million a year. Then the team has an option for 2015 worth 12 million. I can understand the concerns about him. He peaked back in 2007 when as a young 26 year old he hit .297/.354/.498. He got a lot of hype and was considered a potential breakout star. Instead, he regressed in 2008. His numbers nosedived across the board. His budding power sunk instead of bursting out. What's troubling is that Rios has not bounced back this year, instead, he's declined further. He's now hitting .262/.362/.416. People are worried and their's some justification for that. However, Rios hasn't actually been that bad. In 2008 he saved his season by making huge strides in his defense and even handling centerfield well enough for a few games. Theirs no getting around the fact that he's off to a slow start this year but his BABIP is almost 30 points lower than his career average. He's still on the right side of 30 and is a very good player. His contract is hardly the disaster people make it out to be. They could do much worse than taking on Alex Rios to help lessen the load it would take to bring in Roy Halladay.
This is all probably moot because I doubt the Jays will trade within the AL East. However, if he reflects the views of much of his fanbase, then the Yankees may have a match for Halladay. Of course, they'd still need to include some top prospects but it might lessen the load a little. Here's the kind of deal I might have in mind:
Roy Halladay + Alex Rios for Joba Chamberlain + Mark Melancon
So, what do you think? Am I underestimating the intelligence of the Blue Jays' front office? Overestimating the value of Alex Rios? Or do you think I might actually have a decent trade idea?
Thursday, July 16, 2009
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14 Comments:
i almost spit out my coffee when i read kei igawa...lol..
noooo way.....I'm not sure that you are even serious. Is this a joke?
I understand what you're saying about Wells, and if this was a team that actually cared about money I'd agree with you completely, but part of me thinks Wells may have a little left.
Now, his days in center may be over because he continues to trend downward, and right now he's wouldn't even be the second best defensive CF on the Yankees. Brett Gardner is by far the best, and Melky is second. Would having Wells move to the corners extend his career in the field the way it has so many before him? Probably.
As for his offense, I'm sure he could regain the form he had last year and 2006.
As far as he vs. Rios goes, I'd obviously rather Rios. He's younger and showing much less signs of decline in the field. Offensively he's right now exactly the same player as Wells.
The only reason I'd consider taking on a contract like Wells' is if it would drastically drop the price for Halladay. If instead of Montero and Joba, maybe just Joba and a handfull of lesser prospects gets deal done with Wells in the picture. And with Damon and Matsui gone next year they do need a replacement.
Jason Bay looks like Boston is going to lock him up and Matt Holiday will cost a lot more than he's proving he's worth out of the thin air of Colorado.
To me Halladay all but guarantees a playoff birth and makes them the clear cut favorite to win the series, that to me is too much to pass up because you might have to take on a contract like Wells'.
The Sox were in the same position when it came to Beckett when they had to take Lowell, who was 31 and coming off a year that he hit .236/.298/.360. The change in scenery and the move to a hitters park revamped his career. The same thing could happen with Wells.
As for the trade you proposed I would do that in a heartbeat.
But yea, I don't think the Jays would. Maybe if Igawa was changed to Betances or Brackman or Phelps or Banuelos. But I think they might run when the hear the name Igawa.
Okay, that was a stupid trade idea. Is the new one a little more realistic?
You have to remember that if JP Ricciardi trades the face of the Jays, he's going to need to explain to the fanbase that the players he's getting back justify the deal. So if he were talking to the Yankees, the deal must begin with Joba and Montero. A-Jax would be the 3rd or 4th prospect in the trade. Although, I think a 3-team deal is what will most likely end up happening.
I'd make that trade too, and if I've learned anything it's that if I'm this open for a trade it will almost certainly take more. If you throw McAllister or another pitcher in that deal it might be enough, though.
Would the Blue Jays be willing to take an MLB player too? Or just prospects? Throwing in Melky or Gardner instead of A-Jax might help the deal.
Hey, just offer to take Halliday, Wells, and Rios for a bag of balls. Then the jays get the financial freedom to rebuild, and the Yanks get Halliday. Then cut Wells, pay him $20 million a year not to play, and raise the price of the $2500 seats to $3500.
Like I said yesterday, even with taking on Wells or Rios, it will still take quite a bit ti acquire him. Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, and even with them being relieved of money they won't just give him away.
Now I have no problem with them taking on Wells. Like Greg said, move him to a corner outfield position. And then next year you have the outfield set with Swish in right, Gardner in center, and Wells in left (or Wells/Swish switch, doesn't really matter).
How about Halladay + Wells for Jackson, Romine, Betances, McAllister and Melky
or Halladay + Wells for Chamberlain, Romine, McAllister and Melky.
I'm not sure the Jays would do that, but if they say yes, if I am the Yankees front office, you have to do one of those trades.
And a 5-for-2 or a 4-for-2 may seem like a lot to give up, but remember, the Diamondbacks had to give up 6 guys to land Dan Haren. And he wasn't on Halladay's playing field at the time.
No way in hell would I give them Melancon and Joba. Why not package Cano with some prospects and bring up Pena and put him at 2nd? That would shore up the defense. Cano may be hot, but only when the table is clear. So you're not losing a clutch bat.
Yeah, but your losing all offense what so ever at second base then. I think Pena will be a great player who can play many positions for us in the coming years, but hes not a starter.
Remember this trade has got to hurt. Boston gave up Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett. Look at Hanley now.
I'm just throwing idea's out their. Don't take the exact trade offer to seriously. We don't know what the Jays are even looking for
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