Checking in on Ross Ohlendorf

I know I haven't been around for a while but I'm back now and things should be back to normal. :)

With the Yankees searching for a fifth starter, I've heard many fans complaining about the Nady trade last year. Not because of Jose Tabata's resurgence but because of Ross Ohlendorf's solid year. At first glance it looks pretty good to. His ERA is 4.15, he has 11 wins for the hapless Pirates, and has a solid WHIP of 1.31. On top of that he's on pace to throw well over 200 innings. All of those much better than the disaster that has been Sergio Mitre and at times better than Andy Pettitte. Judging by those numbers alone, he could be their fourth starter and is an easy upgrade of Sergio Mitre. Its not that simple though.

First of all, pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central is worlds away from pitching for the Yankees in the ridiculously stacked AL East. While with the Yankees, he was unimpressive and a major dissapointment in the bullpen. Teams crushed his stuff and he just seemed totally out of his league. The difference in the divisions is huge. We've seen time and time again that when pitchers make the switch in leagues, it makes a huge difference.

Secondly, Ohlendorf been pretty lucky this year. He's not to keep getting by on a 4.91 K/9. His K/BB is only 1.73 and his FIP is up to 4.90. He hasn't developed the high ground ball tendencies you would expect from a sinker baller like him either. His GB% of 42.7% is decidedly mediocre. All around they're not very impressive at all. He's gotten lucky with balls in play and that should start catching up with him sooner rather than later.

Finally, Sergio Mitre has not really hurt the Yankees all that much. Sure, he's been terrible and nobody in their right mind is going to contest that. He's had exactly one "quality" start and that's it. However, it hasn't really mattered. In Mitre's starts the Yankees are 5-2. That's really because of some excellent run support but it shows that despite his struggles, it hasn't really hurt them. Coolstandings.com pegs the Yankees at having a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs this year. If they blow the 6.5 game lead they have now, theirs going to be a long list of guys to blame before the fifth starter. Besides that, its unlikely that Ohlendorf would get any starts in the playoffs.

The trade did not work out. Nady and Marte didn't push them over the top last year and Jose Tabata is reestablishing himself as a top prospect with a big year. However, lets put to rest this idea that Ross Ohlendorf is the missing piece to this team.