Thursday, August 13, 2009

Melky Cabrera's Future

I started this post a long time ago and scrapped it but I think its time to revisit it.

Melky Cabrera's comeback year has been no secret. He's come back from a season where most onlookers, detractors and fans of his alike, left him for dead to have the best year of his short career. He's stepped in for Brett Gardner well and the Yankees have not missed a beat. His line of .275/.337/.437 is not going to blow anybody away. However, considering the circumstances it presents a very interesting situation.

First of all, Melky is only a few days past his 25th birthday. Although he is already a veteran and it seems like he's been around forever, he is probably just beginning to approach his ceiling. He has reversed a three year trend of declining offensive numbers and is playing the best defense of his career, saving the team a few extra runs out in centerfield. Besides that, their is the added bonus of his penchant for getting the big hit late in the game. He has been nothing if not clutch. With some hard work over the winter, Melky has put himself back into the picture for the Yankees. Nobody thinks he's going to be a superstar but theirs some value in a 25 year old centerfielder with a .335 wOBA who can also handle the field pretty well.

The problem for Melky is that their is a bit of a logjam in centerfield. While he was healthy, Brett Gardner was doing a fantastic job for the Yanks and probably outplaying the "Melk-man." Despite being as devoid of power as we expected, Gardner has gotten on base at a decent clip and then he has the ability to really do some damage. Besides that, he is playing the best centerfield we've seen in the Bronx since the golden days of Bernie Williams. Austin Jackson also is making his way into the major leagues. Projections for him to start 2010 with the major league club appear to have been a little optimistic but he figures to be a part of their future plans.

None of these three guys really have the bats to play in left or right field, which will always be stocked with big power hitters. Sure the balance of Gardner and Melky is working for now but at some point, hopefully, A-Jax is going to be ready and that complicates matters. Melky is starting to get to the point where he's making some serious money through arbitration, as well. With Ramiro Pena learning the outfield, it seems like the Yankees are preparing to be rid of Melky. These next two months or so, could be pivotal in deciding whether Melky really is a part of the Yankees future plans or not.

16 Comments:

Anonymous said...

As much as I love Melky, right now, his trade value is at its highest. If we plan on moving him for new pieces, then it must be this coming off season.

Anonymous said...

What happens in the playoffs will determine how many changes will be made in the off season and especially with the outfield. Damon, Hinske, Matsui, Nady may all be gone. Somebody like Melky or Ajax are trade bait, may be traded to address a need exposed in the playoffs. Of course I do not hope it will come to that and we go all the way !!

Anonymous said...

I agree with the last comment - playoffs is everything and if melky has big AB's in the playoffs I keep him. I think the biggest decision is Damon not Melky. Damon really is a DH and no better and there are wat too many DHs on this team Matsui, Damon, Hinske, and Nady if his arm problem lingers. i'd like to see them get a priemier LF and leave Gardner in center melky in right and either Damon or matsui has to go. i'd keep Damon because of his speed.

Anonymous said...

Lets look at this realistically taking each outfielder into account. Damon is gone at the end of this year he is an aging left fielder that want huge money for average numbers.
Swisher is a BACK UP he even says so, the .240 batting average and bad base running should be the clue.
That leaves Melky, Hisnke and Gardner( I am not considering Nady since he is hurt and a free agent bye bye Xman). Hinske is a fill in as far as I see so he is gone.
So you have Melky and Brett left, you bring up AJ Now your outfield is Brett in Left AJ Center and Melky in right. Great speed good to great arms and left right switch. Melky is on the cusp of being a star he has become bigger and stronger and is entering the prime of his career.
Please do not push he has great trade value crap, what out fielder is better that will be as good a value as Melky? Let us not make another Jay Buner mistake.
Dennis Tampa

Scotty B said...

If the Yankees outfield next year is Melky, AJ, and Gardner...that might be the worst offensive outfield ever assembeled. Would they even hit 25 HRs total. I am a big melky fan, but I am also realistic. If we get the right offer in the offseason I think we should move him. We should be in the market for a big time LF or RF. Melky, AJ and Gardner will never been the starting outfield for the Yankees.

Anonymous said...

Dennis I agree some but I cannot see the yankees going into next season with Garner melky and AJ as the OF. They have to have a proven # guy in there - thats more of a Ntl league OF. Damon has had pretty decent #s especially at home and it definitely built for the ball park as constructed. Swisher will stick due to OBS, club house personna and Girardi has said over and over he likes him.
JD in VA

Greg Cohen said...

There's no reason why Damon can't hang around for another year as a full-time DH. Matsui is gone so the spot is open. Next year's opening day lineup could look like this:

Jeter SS
Damon DH
Tex 1B
A-Rod 3B
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Melky LF
Gardner CF

If A-Jax makes the team out of spring training Melky or Gardner become the 4th outfielder.

JoeV said...

Are Melky, Gardner and Swisher really starting outfielders? Or, are they more like the fourth outfielder? I can't see the Yanks going forward to next season without some real firepower coming from the outfield. I'm not familiar with who's a FA this winter, so the answer may come from the outside.

Scotty B said...

Left fielders
Garret Anderson (38)
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31)
Emil Brown (35)
Carl Crawford (28) - $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Johnny Damon (36)
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30)
Jacque Jones (35)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) - $20MM player option
Dave Roberts (38)
Fernando Tatis (35)

Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30)
Rocco Baldelli (28)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Mike Cameron (37)
Endy Chavez (32)
Coco Crisp (30) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Darin Erstad (36)
Ryan Freel (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Reed Johnson (33)
Andruw Jones (33)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Mark Kotsay (34)
Corey Patterson (30)
Scott Podsednik (34)

Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (36)
Jermaine Dye (36) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Brian Giles (39)
Vladimir Guerrero (34)
Eric Hinske (32)
Geoff Jenkins (35) - $7.5MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout
Gabe Kapler (34)
Austin Kearns (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Michaels (34)
Xavier Nady (31)
Magglio Ordonez (36) - $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout
Randy Winn (36)



As you can see nothing special really available. Jason Bay is probably the best one and he will most likely be back with the Sox.

Greg Cohen said...

What they should do is wait till 2010 and then sign Crawford.

Yankee Rebel said...

I read somewhere that the Rays may buy out Crawford and let him walk, as they have Desmond Jennings pretty much ready to go...

Anyway Crawford is the ONLY name on that list I'd want us to pursue as a corner OF, even though he really doesn't hit enough HR's...I imagine he'd be interested...

Greg Cohen said...

Did anyone notice what catcher hits the market after 2010? Joe Mauer.

Anonymous said...

Not sure you guys wan't to trade Melky. He's got a great arm, he can play all outfield positions and he's showing us he can play everyday AND get some timely hits.Swisher isn't too good as an outfielder and JD, well he's useless.I see no reason to trade Melky.

Anonymous said...

Greg,
We are stacked at catcher(cervelli,montero,romine,sanchez). I doubt we make a run for him.

Anonymous said...

It's they're! There they're and their get it right.

Mario said...

The Yankees outfield will be big ? mark this offseason, I don't see NADY coming back, I don't want Damon back, regardless of whose in CF, & look at the FA outfielders, I don't see anyone to get excited about... So