After last night's start by Joba I've been reading nothing but criticism across the blogosphere for it. Now if it were Andy Pettitte or Sergio Mitre throwing this game, we'd be congratulating them on a gritty performance in which they got through six innings and gave the team a chance to win. We'd be talking about how its great that they only gave up four runs when they didn't have their best stuff. Instead, from 1-3 PM today we're going to hear the increasingly inane calls that Joba belongs in the bullpen.
The season for Joba has not lived up to expectations. However, the expectations for the 23 year old are simply absurd. If you listened to the media you would think Joba was having a disastrous year with a good game or two sprinkled in between the five inning messes. The stats tell a different story though. Lost among all this Joba talk is that he's thrown to a 3.85 ERA. Also forgotten in all the complaints that he doesn't throw a lot of innings is that he has 121.2 innings and that its actually a problem that he may throw to many.
Granted, his DIPS stats tell a different story. His FIP is 4.76 and his K/BB is only 1.81. They could end up getting burnt by that later. However, you can attribute that discrepancy at least partially to Joba benefitting from a high LOB%. This may be something he could maintain throughout his career. Joba has shown an ability to find an extra few miles per hour on his fastball in big spots to help him get out of a jam. So, you could attribute this high LOB% to skill rather than luck. Some pitchers have the ability to take things up a knotch in big situations which is something that FIP can't take account for.
Chamberlain is not having the year everyone hoped he would. He hasn't been the ace he was last year and is probably due for a regression at some level. However, it was unreasonable for us to expect more than he's given us. This is another learning year for Joba. He's still building up his innings totals and he's still learning how to pitch. All things considered, he's been pretty damn good. Let's just take a step back and appreciate him for what he is right now.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
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4 Comments:
Nobody would be congradulating Pettitte. Mitre maybe, but not Pettitte. There's not much to be happy about with a 4 runs in 6 innings. Of course there will be bumps in the road and we fans have to deal with that. Last night was a typical bump in the road for a youngster.
As far as calls demanding he goes into the pen, well that just ridiculous.
I think whatever happen to Joba with his injury has changed his pitching style. Don't think of him as Gooden, think of him more like Mussina. He has to learn to hit his spots since he can't throw it by hitters. It'll take some time for him to do that.
Joba as Moose ummm no way.
(Reply to the second comment) He can't throw it by hitters? How can anyone who's ever watched him pitch say that. Joba has great velocity, that isn't a concern.
I recently wrote about Joba on my blog:
As much as I would like to see Joba Chamberlin become a dominate starting pitcher, a few components lead me to suspect that he is better suited for the bullpen.
No one can argue that Chamberlain has great stuff. His mid to high nineties fast ball and sharp breaking slider make for a devastating combination. But what I find disconcerting is that his arsenal does not consist of much more then that. He can throw a change-up but I have seen entire starts where he fails to throw it a single time.
If you study the pitching repertoire of the most prominent pitchers in the majors you will notice the congruency of at least three quality pitches. Johan Santana of the New York Mets for instance features a mid-nineties fastball, slider, and one of the best change-ups in the league. Giants flamethrower Tim Lincecum also complements his his fastball with a slider and a devastating change-up. And Yankee fans will undoubtably recall the tantalizing range of pitches that the now retired Mike Mussina featured.
In order to consistently pitch deep into games against a major league line-up, variance in pitches is essential. This is why two pitch pitchers are predisposed to the bullpen which requires only short appearances giving hitters less opportunity to survey pitches.
Sinker-ball pitchers are the only exception to this maxim. Brandon Webb, who won the 2006 National League Cy Young Award, often throws 90% sinkers in starts. But, alas, Chamberlin encompasses no such pitch.
With all that being said, I am not asserting that Joba Chamberlin should be sent to the bullpen by the Yankees. It would be foolish to do that mid-season. Nor do I doubt that he can be a good starting pitcher. I just can not contemplate him becoming the number one starter that Yankee fans hope, with his current repertoire. He must improve and utilize his change-up if he wants mention among the top pitchers in the game. For the time being, he's a square trying to squeeze into a circle.
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