Two components determine how nasty a pitcher’s stuff truly is: velocity and movement. We’ve had radar guns to track the league’s hardest throwers for some time. But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground.For pitchers with a minimum of 1,000 pitches over the last three years A.J. Burnett tops the list. He's followed by Seattle's Felix Hernandez, KC's Zack Greinke, and Detroit's Edwin Jackson (great trade Tampa...lol).
The problem, as we all know, is that Burnett hasn't done too much with that stuff, especially compared to those other guys. Jackson is 12-6 with a 3.10 ERA, King Felix is 14-5, with a 2.61 ERA, and Greinke is on his way to a Cy Young award with a 13-8 record, and an ERA of just 2.22.
Then there's Burnett, he's just 11-8 with a 4.19 ERA on the best team in baseball. Burnett can be un-hittable at times, but on other days he's as bad as it gets. There are just days where he steps on the mound with no command, no poise, and an inability to stop the bleeding when he gets in trouble. Maybe he's too emotional on the mound, or maybe he's just a headcase who still, after all these years, doesn't know how to pitch.
As for guys who do the most with their stuff, Roy Halladay tops that list. He's followed by Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, Dan Haren, and future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux.
For more from Greenhouse, check out the entire article here.
3 Comments:
Burnett has been good this year. His only major struggles have been at fenway park. His ERA is in the mid three's outside of those 3 starts @ Fenway.
Burnett 11-8 record is deceiving he is the guy with the most quality starts on the yankees rotation.
And I disagree with the article. Halladay has great stuff just because it is not lighting up the radar gun that doesn't mean he doesn't have great stuff. Everything Halladay throws is either sinking or moving away from the hitter. John Flaherty keeps saying Aceves doesn't have great stuff. That drive me crazy Ace has a very good curve and changeup and a nice cutter. People are little too in love with the radar gun now a days.
Greenhouse did not just look at velocity. Here, read this again:
"But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground."
Oh ok well Halladay makes a lot of hitters look silly. I doubt the guys trying to hit off Halladay would say he has below average stuff.
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