While the Yankees will stick to a façade of neutrality as the Central Division race comes down to a 163rd game today, all logical roads lead to one conclusion: The Bombers are pulling hard for the Twins, hoping to avoid Justin Verlander and his high 90s fastball.Klapisch also breaks down the other three division series, which is worth checking out.
The Tigers’ ace, who led the American League in strikeouts, is capable of smothering the Yankees’ offense – indeed, he could change the entire calculus of the division series, even though he wouldn’t pitch until Game 2. But that would create even greater pressure on CC Sabathia to win Game 1, while still putting Verlander in position to break the Bombers’ hearts in Game 5.
Better for the Yankees to take their chances on the Twins, their astute manager, Ron Gardenhire, and the very noisy Metrodome. The Twins made an impressive, 11th-hour sprint to force today’s one-game playoff, but their momentum aside, there isn’t much about Minnesota’s portfolio that should worry the Yankees other than the random unpredictability of a short series.
They are, after all, 0-7 against the Bombers this year.
“If anyone could pull a rabbit out of his hat, it’s Gardenhire, but honestly I don’t see it happening against the Yankees,” said one talent evaluator. The Twins’ offense, while notably led by MVP candidate Joe Mauer, took a serious hit when Justin Morneau went down with a stress fracture in his lower back and otherwise shouldn’t threaten either Sabathia or A.J. Burnett in Games 1 and 2.
But what about the middle games in the Metrodome? Minnesota’s best hope would be somehow splitting the first two games in New York and then using their home-field advantage to pressure Andy Pettitte in Game 3.
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Since 2002, the Twins are 2-8 at home in the postseason. And if case you do think Pettitte has a chance to be rattled, remember he was 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA on the road this year – nearly a run lower than his ERA at home.
This one has be careful what you wish for written all over it. That's why I'm taking the Yankees "I don't care who we play" approach. I will not fall into the same trap I did in 2006 and 2007, and neither should the Yankees. 7-0 against the Twins, and 6-1 against the Tigers in the regular season means nothing come Wednesday.
Minnesota has won 16 of their last 20, and hot teams tend to scare me, especially in the first round. Do they have a better chance at beating us than the Tigers? I don't know, because Justin Verlander scares me too.
I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show. Regardless of who wins tomorrow the Yankees should have an advantage.
